Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics最新文献

{"title":"Impact of shortwave radiation parameterization schemes in predicting global horizontal irradiance for various climatic zones by WRF-Solar: A case study in India","authors":"Naveen Krishnan ,&nbsp;K. Ravi Kumar","doi":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106590","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106590","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A developing country like India has an ambitious target of expanding their solar energy systems in the future for generating power and process heat applications. Hence, it is integral for a developing country such as India to have a robust technique to predict the shortwave radiation in the future to effectively manage the demand and supply. Weather Research Forecasting - Solar (WRF-Solar) is employed in this study to predict the Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) for 14 days ahead and results are validated with the Solcast® data. Four shortwave parameterization schemes such as Dudhia, Goddard Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), New Goddard, and Rapid Radiative Transfer Model in General Circulation Model (RRTMG) have been tested for various climatic regions in India such as warm &amp; humid, hot &amp; dry and composite to find out the optimal configuration that improves the accuracy of GHI prediction. It has also been performed for different seasons in a year to conduct the sensitivity analysis of the parameterization schemes. In the warm &amp; humid climatic zone, the Dudhia scheme outperformed the other three schemes by yielding less mean Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 133.67 W/m², then followed by New Goddard, RRTMG and GDFL with increased mean RMSE of 6.67 %, 7.07 %, and 7.61 % respectively. In Composite climatic zone, the RRTMG scheme performed better than the other three schemes by yielding less mean RMSE of 134.58 W/m², then followed by Dudhia, New Goddard and GFDL with increased mean RMSE of 3.02 %, 4.18 %, and 12.02 % respectively. For hot and dry climatic zone, the Dudhia scheme performed better than the other three schemes by yielding less mean RMSE of 133.20 W/m², then followed by GFDL, RRTMG and New Goddard with an increased mean RMSE of 0.61 %, 4.10 %, and 5.71 % respectively. Despite the climatic conditions, all the schemes performed better in the summer season due to clear skies and below average in the monsoon season due to overcast conditions. The findings of the research are more beneficial to the stakeholders indulged in power generation using solar energy and grid operators for efficient operation in grid integration along with the management of demand and supply.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15096,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"274 ","pages":"Article 106590"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144571375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The PC index value as a standard for estimation of the magnetic substorms power","authors":"Oleg Troshichev,&nbsp;Alexander Nikolaev","doi":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106591","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106591","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The polar cap magnetic activity <em>PC</em> index was introduced as a measure of the magnetic activity generated in the Earth's polar caps by the solar wind influence. At present the <em>PC</em> index is regarded as a proxy of the solar wind energy input into the magnetosphere in course of solar wind – magnetosphere coupling (IAGA Resolutions, 2013, 2021). It implies that <em>PC</em> index can be used as a standard for estimation of various magnetospheric and ionospheric characteristics in course of magnetosphere disturbances. This paper demonstrates possibility to monitor the magnetic substorm progression at latitudes from 55° to 85° CGLat in form of maps of the geomagnetic <em>δH</em> and <em>δD</em> components spatial distribution for different values of <em>PC</em> index.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15096,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"274 ","pages":"Article 106591"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144571374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Response of PM2.5 concentration to climate variability and climate change prediction in China","authors":"Wan Li ,&nbsp;Hujia Zhao ,&nbsp;Changshuang Wang ,&nbsp;Peng Wang ,&nbsp;Dong Han ,&nbsp;Chengyu Wang ,&nbsp;Wenjing Yuan ,&nbsp;Shuanglu Bo","doi":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106588","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106588","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Air pollution, particularly fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), poses severe environmental and public health challenges. Understanding the complex interactions between PM_2.5 concentrations and meteorological factors is crucial for effective air quality management and policy development. However, existing predictive models often struggle to capture the nonlinear and spatiotemporal dependencies of PM_2.5 variations, limiting their interpretability and accuracy. To address these gaps, this study developed a machine learning-based model using extensive historical environmental and meteorological data to analyze the nonlinear response of near-surface PM_2.5 concentrations to multiple spatiotemporal drivers. A monthly-scale prediction model was established, integrating CMIP6 climate projections under different emission scenarios, projected emission inventories, and multi-source auxiliary data. The findings reveal that PM_2.5 concentrations are highest in winter and lowest in summer, with significant seasonal and regional variations from 2015 to 2023. The model demonstrated strong predictive performance, particularly over the North China Plain and Northeast urban agglomerations (<em>R</em> = 0.825), though performance was weaker over the Tibetan Plateau. Key meteorological factors influencing PM_2.5 concentrations include specific humidity, 500 hPa wind, and short-wave radiation. Under future climate scenarios, PM_2.5 concentrations in South and East China are projected to decline during 2025–2030, while Northern China may experience seasonal increases under low-emission scenarios. Regional climate changes, such as increased precipitation and wind speeds in certain areas, further influence PM_2.5 concentration patterns. This study provides a novel, data-driven approach to quantifying the impact of meteorological fluctuations on PM_2.5 variations, offering valuable insights for air quality forecasting and policy formulation under different climate scenarios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15096,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"274 ","pages":"Article 106588"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144549619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sequential evolution of ionospheric TEC anomalies and acoustic-gravity wave precursors associated with the February 8, 2025, Mw 7.6 Cayman Islands earthquake","authors":"Karan Nayak ,&nbsp;Rosendo Romero-Andrade ,&nbsp;Gopal Sharma ,&nbsp;Roberto Colonna","doi":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106582","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106582","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates seismo-ionospheric anomalies associated with the Mw 7.6 Cayman Islands earthquake of February 8, 2025, utilizing GNSS-derived ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) parameters, including the Ionospheric Disturbance Index (IDI), Rate of TEC Index (ROTI), Acoustic-Gravity Wave (AGW) oscillations, spatial TEC anomaly maps, and Regional Similarity Index (SI). A structured precursor hierarchy was identified, starting with early AGW disturbances several hours before significant ionospheric perturbations, followed sequentially by deviations in SI, IDI increases, and eventual ROTI turbulence. Spatial TEC anomaly maps demonstrated pronounced negative and positive anomalies closely centered around the epicenter region prior to the earthquake, while co-seismic TEC enhancements clearly correlated with seismic wave propagation. Correlation analysis between indices confirmed a progressive and systematic evolution of ionospheric anomalies, highlighting AGWs as crucial early precursors. Geomagnetic filtering (Dst/Kp) ensured the isolation of seismic-driven ionospheric disturbances from solar and geomagnetic influences. These findings robustly validate GNSS-TEC indices as reliable indicators of seismo-ionospheric processes and emphasize their potential role in earthquake precursor monitoring and hazard mitigation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15096,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"274 ","pages":"Article 106582"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144502466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From TIROS-1 to the AI Age: 65 years of satellite meteorology and the legacy of Earth observation","authors":"Costas A. Varotsos","doi":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106587","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106587","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":15096,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"274 ","pages":"Article 106587"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144867302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trends and variability in global ocean heat content time series data for the period 2005–2035","authors":"Mehmet Bilgili","doi":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106586","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106586","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Approximately 90 % of the surplus heat generated by anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is absorbed by the oceans, positioning ocean heat content (OHC) as a fundamental indicator for assessing the progression of climate change. Accurate knowledge of OHC changes at both global and regional levels offers valuable insights into the scope of global warming and its effects on sea-level rise, weather patterns, and ecosystems, and helps refine predictions in climate science. This study models monthly average OHC at 0–700 m and 0–2000 m layers across major ocean basins (Global, Southern Hemisphere, Northern Hemisphere, Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans) using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method. Utilizing data from 2005 to 2023, the study provides forecasts up to 2035. The results demonstrate that the SARIMA models have correlation coefficients (R) above 0.8544, mean absolute error (MAE) values less than 0.932 × 10²² J, and root mean square error (RMSE) values under 1.222 × 10²² J, indicating highly accurate trends and satisfactory agreement with the observed data. Projected increases in OHC anomalies by 2035 highlight a continued warming trend, particularly in the upper ocean layers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15096,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"274 ","pages":"Article 106586"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144489756","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Aerosol impact on precipitation and cold pools over an arid region","authors":"J. Sandeep ,&nbsp;K. Gayatri ,&nbsp;P. Murugavel ,&nbsp;Prabhakaran Thara","doi":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106581","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106581","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates aerosol impacts in the primary and secondary convective cells and their associated cold pools resulting from the convective outflow over the dry and arid regions of the Indian peninsula. A convective event observed with C-band polarimetric radar is analysed through several numerical simulations, focusing on the impact of aerosol on rainfall and cold pool characteristics. Control simulations were conducted with low, moderate and high cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Additional sensitivity experiments introduced more ice nuclei particles (INP) in both the primary and secondary convection areas with supercooled liquid water content. The introduction of more INP in all experiments resulted in more ice crystals, snow, hail, as well as an enhancement of high-intensity rainfall. In the primary convection area, the addition of INP led to enhanced mass flux, snow, hail, and melting of hail, which contributed to enhanced area averaged rainfall (&gt;1 mm) and an increase in the cold pool area. However, no significant change was observed in the speed and depth of the primary cold pool depending on the low/high INP simulation. Addition of INP in the secondary convection area did not notably affect the strength or area of the cold pool. Overall, the study highlights that the spatial features of convection and cold pools are modified by the introduction of additional ice forming aerosols.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15096,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"274 ","pages":"Article 106581"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144549620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global response of stratospheric gravity waves to Madden-Julian Oscillation","authors":"Brentha Thurairajah ,&nbsp;Chihoko Y. Cullens ,&nbsp;Scott L. England","doi":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106584","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106584","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropical troposphere. While the MJO is a slow-moving oscillation that does not propagate to high altitude, it's impacts on the broader spectrum of waves can be seen throughout the middle atmosphere. The influence of this ∼30–90 day oscillation on stratospheric gravity waves (GWs) is not just confined to the tropics but extends to high-latitudes. In this study, we use long-term (1979–2018) reanalysis data to investigate the global stratospheric GW response to MJO during the boreal and austral winter months of December, January, February (DJF) and June, July, August (JJA), respectively. In DJF, the MJO GW relative anomalies are in general significant in both hemispheres during all eight MJO phases. In JJA, the GW relative anomalies are stronger in the winter hemisphere compared to the summer hemisphere. In the low- and mid-latitudes, the GW response in the troposphere depends on the strength of the convection, while the stratospheric response is related to the zonal wind response and filtering of upward propagating GWs. The strength and spatial pattern of GW anomalies in the high-latitude winter hemisphere in MJO Phases 4 and 7 may be connected to the dissipation of MJO related poleward propagating planetary waves.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15096,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"274 ","pages":"Article 106584"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144365985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring the influence of anthropogenic forcing on meteorological drought pattern in East Africa: An analysis using CMIP6 models","authors":"Tamirat Yohannes ,&nbsp;Jinhua Yu ,&nbsp;Mulualem Abera ,&nbsp;Philemon King’uza ,&nbsp;Jonah Kazora ,&nbsp;Xuyu Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106569","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106569","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study evaluated the performance of twelve Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 in simulation of precipitation and drought over East Africa (EA) from 1981 to 2014. We employed different statistical and drought indices methods to identify systematic bias and to select the best ranking of models to reduce uncertainties. The evaluation was preformed against with Observed data from Climate Hazard Group InfraRed precipitation with stations (CHIRPS) and Climate Research Unit (CRU). Based on the mean MAM seasonal models and observed CHIRPS data, evaluated through statistical metrics, the results show that the top preforming models: CMCC-CM2-HR4, CanESM5, GFDL-ESM4, and TaiESM1 better captured precipitation over EA precipitation, with bias ranging from 12 to 39 % during the historical period. The study highlights the importance of understanding the influences of human-induced climate change on MAM droughts. The study uses two drought indices, its aims to detect changes in drought patterns and attribute these changes to anthropogenic climate forcing. Historical simulations, including all types of forcing, successfully replicate observed spatial trends. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) shows a drying trend in most parts, except the south and southeast of Tanzania and Kenya. The drying trend is more pronounced in the simulations that include all types of forcing, highlighting the significant impact of human-induced climate change on drought patterns in EA. This outcome strongly suggests that human-induced climate change significantly contributes to the intensification of MAM seasonal drought in EA. More comprehensive detection work is carried out using the signal's fingerprint of both ALL and NAT, which are projected onto the observation and evaluated against the background noise from control simulations without external forcing. The trend pattern signal of ALL is observed SPEI and shows a stronger signal. However, the NAT signal is not detected in SPEI. The findings reveal that changes in precipitation due to human activity are predominant in the south and southeast, while changes in temperature due to human activity are more evident in northern East Africa.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15096,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"274 ","pages":"Article 106569"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144549667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Observations of traveling ionospheric disturbances over Ukraine during geospace storm using single GNSS receiver","authors":"Sergii Panasenko ,&nbsp;Vadym Skipa ,&nbsp;Kateryna Aksonova ,&nbsp;Oleksandr Bogomaz ,&nbsp;Igor Domnin","doi":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106555","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106555","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We proposed a simplified technique for detecting large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) based on data from a single GNSS receiver. This method enables an approximate determination of the zonal or meridional propagation of TIDs when satellite trajectories are predominantly aligned along parallels or meridians. We identified large-scale TIDs during the passage of the sunrise solar terminator and enhanced auroral activity. These disturbances exhibited dominant periods of approximately 60 min, with amplitudes ranging from 0.2 to 0.25 TECU (1 TECU = <span><math><mrow><mn>1</mn><msup><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow><mrow><mn>16</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span> <span><math><msup><mrow><mi>m</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup></math></span>). TIDs induced by space weather variations mainly propagated along the meridians, whereas the propagation direction for TIDs generated by the sunrise solar terminator could not be determined. Comparison with incoherent scatter data revealed good agreement in the periods and observation intervals of the TIDs. Furthermore, incorporating GNSS data from the European dense GNSS receiver network validated the inferred directions of TID propagation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15096,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics","volume":"274 ","pages":"Article 106555"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144472027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}