Journal of Agricultural Economics最新文献

{"title":"Foreword: The Role of Agricultural Trade in Countering the Effects of Extreme Weather","authors":"John T. Saunders","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.12633","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1477-9552.12633","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The phenomenon of anthropogenic climate change is now well-established, with global temperatures in 2024 having already exceeded the Paris Agreement target ceiling of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (Copernicus <span>2025</span>) and extreme weather events (EWEs) an increasing occurrence. EWEs—including flooding, extreme heat, drought and wildfires—have profound implications for agriculture (Burke et al. <span>2015</span>; IPCC <span>2023</span>; Tebaldi and Lobell <span>2018</span>; Zhao et al. <span>2017</span>).</p><p>There has been extensive research on how agriculture will need to adapt to climate change (e.g., Huang and Sim <span>2020</span>), and how policies can facilitate that process, notably by building resilience (Lipper et al. <span>2018</span>; Wreford et al. <span>2010</span>). At the same time, agriculture will likely account for an increasing share of global emissions as other sectors decarbonise, and greater efforts will be needed to reduce sectoral emissions. The latter issue has been explored in recent papers in this journal (Kreft et al. <span>2023</span>; Sørenson et al. <span>2025</span>).</p><p>The impacts of EWEs have been a focus of analysis (e.g., Bezner Kerr et al. <span>2022</span>; Fabri et al. <span>2024</span>; Rosenzweig et al. <span>2001</span>), but the international spill-over effects across markets have received comparatively little attention. Each of the four studies in this <i>Special Focus</i> uses partial equilibrium (PE) modelling to explore how the impacts of extreme weather shocks reverberate across markets. These models are combined with a range of approaches, including stochastic draws based on historic weather variation; Superposed Epoch Analysis; a Combined Stress Index; and a fixed-effects regression analysis on the relationship between weather and overlapping growing periods, to identify and simulate the effects of foreseeable “worst case” scenarios.</p><p>The strength of PE models is that they can capture critical interactions within the agricultural economy with a relatively high degree of disaggregation, a strength which for some inquiries outweighs the weakness of treating other sectors exogenously (a weakness addressed by general equilibrium analysis, e.g., Gouël and Laborde <span>2021</span>). PE models are particularly useful for agricultural policy analysis, for example in assessing how producers and consumers respond to market shocks, and identifying policies that can be used to counter undesired impacts (such as high prices for consumers or suppressed farm incomes).</p><p>Each of the PE models used in this Special Focus has been developed by researchers representing some of the most notable institutions engaged in analysing agricultural policy and markets—the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD); China Agricultural University (CAU) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the Food","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"76 2","pages":"239-240"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1477-9552.12633","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144228560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental Regulations and Smallholder Farmers' Technical Efficiency: Empirical Evidence From Pastoral China","authors":"Mucong Xin,&nbsp;Shuhao Tan,&nbsp;Huanguang Qiu,&nbsp;Jianjun Tang","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.12638","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1477-9552.12638","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Existing studies on the association between environmental regulations and competitiveness have largely been conducted at the country, industry and firm levels, with little attention paid to their impacts on the economic performance of small farming households. We fill this gap by examining China's grassland ecological compensation policy, an environmental regulation aimed at grassland protection that restricts small herder households' grazing activities. Our empirical analysis is based on a relatively large-scale dataset of 570 herder households, and a stochastic frontier analysis is conducted to determine the technical efficiency of livestock production. The results show that the governmentally imposed grassland ecological compensation policy improves herder households' technical efficiencies, supporting the Porter Hypothesis, which suggests that environmental regulations trigger competitiveness. Further analysis shows that balance grazing, which is a less stringent regulation type, is effective in increasing technical efficiency, whereas grazing bans, which form a more stringent regulation type, fail to promote technical efficiency. This supports the narrow version of the Porter Hypothesis, which suggests that flexible environmental regulations have greater innovation effects than prescriptive ones. In addition, we find a positive and significant relationship between payment intensity and technical efficiency. Grassland plots covered by grazing ban and meeting ecological restoration standards should be converted to balance grazing to improve herders' technical efficiencies.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"76 3","pages":"555-569"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144228638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Global Soybean Markets and China's Imports","authors":"Xinran Hu,&nbsp;Yumei Zhang,&nbsp;Shenggen Fan,&nbsp;Kevin Z. Chen,&nbsp;Qi Wu","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.12632","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1477-9552.12632","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>China imports 65% of the globally traded soybeans to meet the demand for vegetable oil and animal feed, accounting for about 85% of the country's total consumption. Extreme weather events (EWEs) significantly disrupt the global soybean market, with impacts transmitted to China. Using Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA) and a global agricultural partial equilibrium model, this research examines the effects of EWEs on global soybean production, trade, and China's soybean-related sectors. The findings indicate that single-country EWEs have modest impacts, but simultaneous EWEs in multiple countries lead to global soybean production declines of 8.8%–17.1%, resulting in world price increases of 9.5%–33.2% and a decrease in China's imports by 1.5%–20.7%. Soybean oil and meal prices in China would increase by 0.8%–16.7%, and meat prices would rise by 0.1%–3.9%. Consequently, consumer spending on soybeans and meat may increase by 10.7–174.1 billion yuan. China's soybean stocks play a crucial role in mitigating the impacts of EWEs. Releasing stocks can limit soybean price hikes by up to 8.3% and meat price hikes by up to 1%, potentially lowering consumer spending on soybeans and meat by up to 37.4 billion yuan. Several measures are proposed to mitigate the impacts of EWEs and enhance resilience, including international cooperation for stabilising production, improving domestic stock and demand management, and building production capacity.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"76 2","pages":"251-267"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144252358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Weathering the Storm: Trade Openness and the Resilience of Agricultural Markets Under Increasing Weather Extremes","authors":"Marcel Adenäuer,&nbsp;Clara Frezal,&nbsp;Thomas Chatzopoulos","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.12635","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1477-9552.12635","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We analyse how a higher level of trade integration in global agricultural markets can mitigate food-security risks in a world where agro-climatic events increase both in frequency and intensity. By incorporating stochastically simulated crop-yield reductions into a partial-equilibrium model of global agricultural markets, we compare commodity supply, demand and price responses under two alternative trade pathways: a trade-liberalised world and a trade-restricted world. By implementing the same sets of yield reductions (input) on these two pathways and comparing synthesised market outcomes (output), we examine the role of trade as a mechanism for ensuring more resilient agricultural markets. Our findings indicate that trade integration could stabilise food availability and mitigate domestic and world price volatility. While trade policies can play a significant role in mitigating food-security risks in a climate-uncertain future, they must be complemented by broader policies to enhance global resilience and food security.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"76 2","pages":"241-250"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144228639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Potential for Yield Improvements in Developing Countries to Reduce Their Exposure to Extreme Weather Shocks in Exporting Countries","authors":"Simone Pieralli,&nbsp;Spire Arsov,&nbsp;Christian Elleby,&nbsp;Ignacio Pérez Domínguez,&nbsp;Beatrice Farkas","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.12634","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1477-9552.12634","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article explores the impact of extreme weather on food availability and how yield gap reductions in developing countries could make them less vulnerable to the imported effects of extreme weather shocks. Our extreme weather scenario results show that simultaneous weather-related shocks to crop yields in main exporting countries could lead to substantial increases in world food prices, threatening food security in countries strongly reliant on food imports. Maize and wheat prices increase by 40% and 50% due to extreme weather, increasing food expenditure in import-dependent countries (by up to 5%). Countering this effect, closing yield gaps in developing countries would substantially lower international prices and food expenditures, especially in developing countries. If the yield gap is reduced by 20% relative to economic potential over a 6-year period (yield gap scenario), maize and world prices decrease by 20% and 15%, decreasing food expenditure per capita in import-dependent countries. Finally, a combined scenario shows that the yield improvements only partially offset the impact of imported shocks on import-dependent countries, and these effects vary by country, depending on their production capability and their net-trade position. World maize and wheat prices increase by only 9% and 26% and still raise food expenditure in import-dependent countries.</p>","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"76 2","pages":"268-281"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1477-9552.12634","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144183951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impact of Climate Variability on Food Security in Bangladesh Under Alternative Trade Regimes","authors":"Mohammad Hasan Mobarok,&nbsp;Wyatt Thompson","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.12636","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1477-9552.12636","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study examines the impact of climate change on food security in Bangladesh, focusing on rice production and its sensitivity to climatic variability. By linking precipitation and temperature to rice yields and incorporating these relationships into a trade regime-switching partial equilibrium model, the research simulates future market conditions under alternative Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The analysis is divided into two parts: first, estimating yield variations for Bangladesh's two main rice harvests using historical weather data and stochastic simulations of future conditions; second, modelling the economic impacts of yield fluctuations under autarky and import parity regimes. The latter reduces the effects of domestic shocks but increases exposure to international market shocks. Climate variability interacts with trade regimes to determine food security outcomes: the effects on food availability and access, and the stability of food supplies, can be either nil or strong depending on the trade regime. The effectiveness of market interventions further depends on the trade regime in place, strengthening the case for more directly targeted support to food insecure households.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"76 2","pages":"282-295"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144183953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"JAE 2024: Report of the Editor-in-Chief","authors":"Jonathan Brooks","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.12639","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1477-9552.12639","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Submissions fell back in 2024 to 334 original manuscripts, a similar figure to pre-COVID levels. The drop in the number of submissions was associated with a modest increase in the acceptance rate from 8% to 11%. The Journal's acceptance rate remains higher for papers originating from Europe and North America. The Journal's Impact Factor remains similar to those of other leading field journals. The Editorial Team continues to evolve to reflect more closely the topics addressed and methods applied in journal submissions, and the journal's broad geographical coverage.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"76 2","pages":"478-483"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144153693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Perennial Flower Strips Can Be a Cost-Effective Tool for Pest Suppression in Orchards","authors":"Charlotte Howard,&nbsp;Paul J. Burgess,&nbsp;Michelle T. Fountain,&nbsp;Claire Brittain,&nbsp;Michael P. D. Garratt","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.12631","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1477-9552.12631","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Flower strips can provide many economic benefits in commercial orchards, including reducing crop damage by a problematic pest, rosy apple aphid (<i>Dysaphis plantaginea</i> [Passerini]). To explore the financial costs and benefits of this effect, we developed a bio-economic model to compare the establishment and opportunity costs of perennial wildflower strips with benefits derived from increased yields due to reduced <i>D. plantaginea</i> fruit damage under high and low pest pressure. This was calculated across three scenarios: (1) a flower strip on land that would otherwise be an extension of the standard grass headland, (2) a flower strip on land that could otherwise be used to produce apples and (3) a flower strip in the centre of an orchard. Through reduction of <i>D. plantaginea</i> fruit damage alone, our study shows that flower strips on the headland can be a positive financial investment. If non-crop land was not available, establishment of a flower strip in the centre of an orchard, instead of the edge, could recoup opportunity costs by providing benefits to crops on both sides of the flower strip. Our study can help guide the optimal placement of flower strips and inform subsidy value for these schemes.</p>","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"76 2","pages":"466-477"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1477-9552.12631","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143877975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multinational and Domestic Firms' Participation in Food Global Value Chains: Does Institutional Quality Matter?","authors":"Valentina Raimondi,&nbsp;Margherita Scoppola","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.12630","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1477-9552.12630","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study provides empirical evidence on the role of institutional quality in driving countries' participation in Global Value Chains (GVC) by distinguishing domestic from multinational firms (MNEs). Drawing on the Analytical Activities of MNEs (AMNE) database of OECD, we use a panel gravity framework to assess whether institutional quality improves GVC firms' participation in the food, beverages, and tobacco industry and whether the responsiveness to changes in institutional quality differs between domestic and multinational firms. A key finding is that the lower the institutional quality the greater the gap in participation between multinational and domestic firms. In developing countries, where institutions are relatively weak, domestic firms' GVC participation is correspondingly low relative to that of multinational firms.</p>","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"76 2","pages":"447-465"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1477-9552.12630","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143653343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimal Surveillance and Indemnity Policy for Eradicating Exotic Livestock Diseases","authors":"Cristina Salvioni,&nbsp;Paolo Vitale","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.12628","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1477-9552.12628","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We present a theoretical model that identifies the optimal resource allocation between surveillance and intervention for eradicating exotic livestock diseases. We apply a game theory approach to analyse the strategic interaction between the Animal Health Authority (AHA) and the stockbreeders. The model elucidates how the breeders' pay-offs depend upon the AHA's choices and vice versa. We first model the stockbreeder reporting decision (passive surveillance) under uncertainty. Then, we analyse how the AHA should efficiently allocate resources between active surveillance (inspections) and intervention, and determine how this trade-off is influenced by various economic factors, such as the operation size and breeders' risk attitudes. By explicitly considering the relationship between passive and active surveillance, the model reconciles the literature investigating the nexus between compensation payments and reporting with the literature on the relationship between surveillance and intervention. We use the case study of a parasite of social bee colonies, the Small Hive Beetle, in Italy, which presents no moral hazard concerns, and hence limits the complexity of the analysis. However, the model can be adapted to other types of exotic diseases and livestock. The model does not provide precise quantitative prescriptions of the optimal values to be assigned to indemnities and probability of monitoring. Rather, it contributes to the understanding of the economic factors that influence optimal surveillance and intervention strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"76 2","pages":"434-446"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1477-9552.12628","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143575366","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}