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Individual Treatment Effects of Budget Balance Rules 预算平衡规则的个人处理效果
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513563855.001
Francesca Caselli, Daniel Stöhlker, Philippe Wingender
{"title":"Individual Treatment Effects of Budget Balance Rules","authors":"Francesca Caselli, Daniel Stöhlker, Philippe Wingender","doi":"10.5089/9781513563855.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513563855.001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the heterogenous effects of budget balance rules on fiscal policy in a large sample of countries. To derive country-specific treatment effects of fiscal rules and conduct inference, we use a Synthetic Difference-in-Differences Method. Our results indicate that countries with a budget balance rule improve their fiscal balance on average by around 3 percent after its introduction. However, our results also illustrate the importance of going beyond the average treatment effect, as it masks significant heterogeneity in the country-specific impact of the rule. We find that countries that would have had large deficits in the absence of the fiscal rule exhibit positive treatment effects, thus reducing their budget deficits. On the other hand, countries with budget surpluses respond to fiscal rules by reducing their budget surplus and moving closer to the numerical target of the rule. Our results also suggest that rules’ design matters: a small overall number of fiscal rules, and the presence of a monitoring process outside the government, especially at the supra-national level, improve significantly the effectiveness of the rules.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87695756","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Great Lockdown: International Risk Sharing Through Trade and Policy Coordination 大封锁:通过贸易和政策协调分担国际风险
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513560182.001
P. Engler, Nathalie Pouokam, Diego Rodriguez Guzman, Irina Yakadina
{"title":"The Great Lockdown: International Risk Sharing Through Trade and Policy Coordination","authors":"P. Engler, Nathalie Pouokam, Diego Rodriguez Guzman, Irina Yakadina","doi":"10.5089/9781513560182.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513560182.001","url":null,"abstract":"Voluntary and government-mandated lockdowns in response to COVID-19 have caused causing drastic reductions in economic activity around the world. We present a parsimonious two-country-SIR model with some degree of substitutability between home and foreign goods, and show that trading partners’ asynchronous entries into the global pandemic induce mutual welfare gains from trade. Those gains are realized through exchange rate adjustments that cause a temporary reallocation of production towards the economy with the lowest infection rate at any point in time. We show that international cooperation over containment policies that aim at optimizing global welfare further enhances the ability of countries to exploit trade opportunities to contain the spread of the pandemic. We characterize the Nash game of strategic choices of containment policies as a prisoners’ dilemma.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77875248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Crouching Beliefs, Hidden Biases: The Rise and Fall of Growth Narratives 蹲伏的信念，隐藏的偏见:增长叙事的兴衰
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513556864.001
Reda Cherif, Marc Engher, Fuad Hasanov
{"title":"Crouching Beliefs, Hidden Biases: The Rise and Fall of Growth Narratives","authors":"Reda Cherif, Marc Engher, Fuad Hasanov","doi":"10.5089/9781513556864.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513556864.001","url":null,"abstract":"The debate among economists about an optimal growth recipe has been the subject of competing “narratives.” We identify four major growth narratives using the text analytics of IMF country reports over 1978-2019. The narrative “Economic Structure”—services, manufacturing, and agriculture—has been on a secular decline overshadowed by the \u0000“Structural Reforms”—competitiveness, transparency, and governance. We observe the rise and fall of the “Washington Consensus”—privatization and liberalization— and the rise to dominance of the “Washington Constellation,” a collection of many disparate terms such as productivity, tourism, and inequality. Growth theory concepts such as innovation, technology, and export policy have been marginal while industrial policy, which was once perceived positively, is making a comeback.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"67 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80322520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Optimal Simple Objectives for Monetary Policy When Banks Matter 当银行举足轻重时，货币政策的最优简单目标
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3728986
Lien Laureys, R. Meeks, Boromeus Wanengkirtyo
{"title":"Optimal Simple Objectives for Monetary Policy When Banks Matter","authors":"Lien Laureys, R. Meeks, Boromeus Wanengkirtyo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3728986","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3728986","url":null,"abstract":"We reconsider the design of welfare-optimal monetary policy when financing frictions impair the supply of bank credit, and when the objectives set for monetary policy must be simple enough to be implementable and allow for effective accountability. We show that a flexible inflation targeting approach that places weight on stabilizing inflation, a measure of resource utilization, and a financial variable produces welfare benefits that are almost indistinguishable from fully-optimal Ramsey policy. The macro-financial trade-off in our estimated model of the euro area turns out to be modest, implying that the effects of financial frictions can be ameliorated at little cost in terms of inflation. A range of different financial objectives and policy preferences lead to similar conclusions.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91307912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Pre- and Post-GFC Policy Multipliers 全球金融危机前后的政策乘数
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513561097.001.A001
C. Rochon, S. Ouliaris
{"title":"Pre- and Post-GFC Policy Multipliers","authors":"C. Rochon, S. Ouliaris","doi":"10.5089/9781513561097.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513561097.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper estimates the change in policy multipliers in the U.S. relative to their pre-2008 financial crisis levels using an augmented Blanchard-Perotti model to allow for the dynamic effects of shocks to the central bank balance sheet, real interest rates and debt levels on economic activity. Given the elevated debt level and significantly larger central bank balance sheet in the U.S. after 2008, the paper estimates the likely impact of new stimulus packages. We find that expenditure multipliers have fallen post-2008 crisis because of higher government debt, implying that the effectiveness of fiscal policy has declined. The analysis also investigates the impact of quantitative easing. The results suggest that it is beneficial, but requires sizable balance sheet interventions to lead to noticeable effects on real GDP. The results are used to assess the impact of the policy packages to address COVID-19. Because of rising debt stocks, dealing with a crisis is becoming more and more costly despite the current low interest rate environment.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90644558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climate Mitigation Policy in Denmark: A Prototype for Other Countries 丹麦的气候减缓政策:其他国家的典范
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513560960.001
Nicoletta Batini, I. Parry, Philippe Wingender
{"title":"Climate Mitigation Policy in Denmark: A Prototype for Other Countries","authors":"Nicoletta Batini, I. Parry, Philippe Wingender","doi":"10.5089/9781513560960.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513560960.001","url":null,"abstract":"Denmark has a highly ambitious goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions 70 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. While there is general agreement that carbon pricing should be the centerpiece of Denmark’s mitigation strategy, pricing needs to be effective, address equity and leakage concerns, and be reinforced by additional measures at the sectoral level. The strategy Denmark develops can be a good prototype for others to follow. This paper discusses mechanisms to scale up domestic carbon pricing, compensate households, and possibly combine pricing with a border carbon adjustment. It also recommends the use of revenue-neutral feebate schemes to strengthen mitigation incentives, particularly for transportation and agriculture, fisheries and forestry, though these schemes could also be applied more widely.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"59 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73496314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
International Taxation and Luxembourg's Economy 国际税收与卢森堡经济
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513560922.001.A001
Ruud A. De Mooij, D. Prihardini, Antje Pflugbeil, Emil Stavrev
{"title":"International Taxation and Luxembourg's Economy","authors":"Ruud A. De Mooij, D. Prihardini, Antje Pflugbeil, Emil Stavrev","doi":"10.5089/9781513560922.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513560922.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"Luxembourg receives ample investment from multinational corporations, in part due to some attractive features in its international tax rules. Around 95 percent of these foreign investments pass through Luxembourg via companies performing holding and/or intra-group financing activities. While their contribution to Luxembourg’s economy is modest relative to their large overall balance sheets, they still generate around 3 percent of GDP in tax revenue, create almost 4500 direct jobs, and spend almost 3 percent of GDP on salaries and purchases of business services. Ongoing changes in the international corporate tax framework pose risks to these economic contributions, which this paper attempts to quantify. It also discusses options for reforms in Luxembourg’s tax system that could help offset adverse revenue and economic effects.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"93 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75433700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Non-Linearities in Fiscal Policy:The Role of Debt 财政政策的非线性:债务的作用
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513560939.001.A001
Alexandra Fotiou
{"title":"Non-Linearities in Fiscal Policy:The Role of Debt","authors":"Alexandra Fotiou","doi":"10.5089/9781513560939.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513560939.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"Empirical evidence shows that fiscal multipliers depend on the state of the cycle, the nature of fiscal policy and the level of debt. In other words, evidence points to non-linearities in the effects of fiscal policy. This paper provides a framework to examine the role of the level of government debt in the assessment of consolidation policies across the business cycle, allowing for the consolidation multiplier to depend on the level of debt at the time of consolidation. The empirical analysis, which uses a panel of 13 countries between 1980 and 2014, finds that when debt is high, fiscal consolidations based on tax increases are in general self-defeating, in that they result in an increase of the debt-to-GDP ratio. Instead, cutting public expenditure has a less pronounced effect on economic activity and can stabilize debt. The initial level of debt in an economy, when a fiscal consolidation is implemented, appears to work as a channel in explaining evidence of state-dependence of the different consolidation instruments.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74839618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Labor Market Informality and the Business Cycle 劳动力市场非正式性与商业周期
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513561288.001
Frederic J. Lambert, Andrea Pescatori, F. Toscani
{"title":"Labor Market Informality and the Business Cycle","authors":"Frederic J. Lambert, Andrea Pescatori, F. Toscani","doi":"10.5089/9781513561288.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513561288.001","url":null,"abstract":"Labor market informality is a pervasive feature of most developing economies. Motivated by the empirical regularity that the labor informality rate falls with GDP per capita, both at business cycle frequency and in a cross-section of countries, and that the Okun's coefficient falls with the level of labor informality, we build a small open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with two sectors, formal and informal, which can replicate these key stylized facts. The model is calibrated to Colombia. The results show that labor market and tax reforms play an important role in changing the informality rate but also caution against over-optimism - with low GDP per capita, informality will always be relatively high as there is insufficient demand for formal goods. Quantitatively we find that higher productivity in the formal sector is key in explaining the difference between Colombia and countries with significantly lower informality. We use the model to study how labor informality and labor market frictions mediate the cyclical response of the economy to shocks, including commodity price shocks which are particularly relevant in Latin America. Informality is shown to play an important role as a shock absorber with the informal-formal margin limiting movements in the employed-unemployed margin.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89535254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Technological and Economic Decoupling in the Cyber Era 网络时代的技术与经济脱钩
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513561677.001
Daniel Garcia-Macia, Rishi K Goyal
{"title":"Technological and Economic Decoupling in the Cyber Era","authors":"Daniel Garcia-Macia, Rishi K Goyal","doi":"10.5089/9781513561677.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513561677.001","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the shift toward digital services. Meanwhile, the race for technological and economic leadership has heated up, with risks of decoupling that could set back trade and growth and hinder the recovery from the worst global recession since the Great Depression. This paper studies the conditions under which a country may seek to erect barriers—banning imports or exports of cyber technologies—and in effect promote decoupling or deglobalization. A well-known result is that banning imports may be optimal in monopolistic sectors, such as the digital sector. The novel result of this paper is that banning exports can also be optimal, and in some cases superior, as it prevents technological diffusion to a challenger that may eventually become the global supplier, capturing monopoly rents and posing cybersecurity risks. However, export or import bans would come at a deleterious cost to the global economy. The paper concludes that fostering international cooperation, including in the cyber domain, could be key to avoiding technological and economic decoupling and securing better livelihoods.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86456653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
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