International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series最新文献

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Legal Aspects of Central Bank Digital Currency: Central Bank and Monetary Law Considerations 中央银行数字货币的法律方面:中央银行和货币法的考虑
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513561622.001
Wouter Bossu, Masaru Itatani, Catalina Margulis, A. Rossi, Hans Weenink, Akihiro Yoshinaga
{"title":"Legal Aspects of Central Bank Digital Currency: Central Bank and Monetary Law Considerations","authors":"Wouter Bossu, Masaru Itatani, Catalina Margulis, A. Rossi, Hans Weenink, Akihiro Yoshinaga","doi":"10.5089/9781513561622.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513561622.001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the legal foundations of central bank digital currency (CBDC) under central bank and monetary law. Absent strong legal foundations, the issuance of CBDC poses legal, financial and reputational risks for central banks. While the appropriate \u0000design of the legal framework will up to a degree depend on the design features of the CBDC, some general conclusions can be made. First, most central bank laws do not currently authorize the issuance of CBDC to the general public. Second, from a monetary law perspective, it is not evident that “currency” status can be attributed to CBDC. While the central bank law issue can be solved through rather straithforward law reform, the monetary law issue poses fundmental legal policy challenges.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89766559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 49
Caught in the Crosswinds: The Experiences of Selected Economies Responding to External Volatility with Multiple Policy Levers 《逆风夹击:特定经济体用多种政策杠杆应对外部波动的经验》
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513560342.001
G. Fayad, H. Poirson
{"title":"Caught in the Crosswinds: The Experiences of Selected Economies Responding to External Volatility with Multiple Policy Levers","authors":"G. Fayad, H. Poirson","doi":"10.5089/9781513560342.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513560342.001","url":null,"abstract":"A case study approach is used to assess the multi-pronged policy response of seven small financially open economies with flexible exchange rate regimes to external shocks following the global financial crisis. FX intervention was frequently used— including during outflow episodes to prevent disorderly depreciation and preserve financial stability. Monetary policy often considered both financial and external stability. Capital flow management measures were sometimes calibrated symmetrically over the cycle while macroprudential measures were mostly deployed during inflow episodes. Assessment of the macroeconomic conditions paints an inconclusive picture on the benefits or costs of such policies, suggesting the need for further analysis.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87159319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Enhancing Fiscal Transparency and Reporting in India 加强印度的财政透明度和报告
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513559599.001
Patrick Blagrave, Fabien Gonguet
{"title":"Enhancing Fiscal Transparency and Reporting in India","authors":"Patrick Blagrave, Fabien Gonguet","doi":"10.5089/9781513559599.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513559599.001","url":null,"abstract":"Current fiscal transparency and reporting practices in India place it behind most peer G20 economies, implying that policy makers are lacking critical data to ground their fiscal and other economic planning decisions. The increasing use of off-budget financing at the central government level in recent years represents one key example of reduced transparency—we provide estimates of the public sector borrowing requirement and an extended notion of the fiscal deficit, each of which shows a more expansionary stance in recent years than \u0000‘headline’ deficit figures presented in budget documents. We then investigate the current state of fiscal reporting practices in India and suggest areas for reforms—these include enhanced IT systems, stronger central-local coordination, and a gradual transition to accrual accounting.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"161 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86178297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Fintech in Europe: Promises and Threats 金融科技在欧洲:承诺与威胁
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513561165.001.A001
Chikako Baba, C. Batog, Enrique Flores, B. Gracia, Izabela Karpowicz, Piotr Kopyrski, J. Roaf, A. Shabunina, R. V. Elkan, X. Xu
{"title":"Fintech in Europe: Promises and Threats","authors":"Chikako Baba, C. Batog, Enrique Flores, B. Gracia, Izabela Karpowicz, Piotr Kopyrski, J. Roaf, A. Shabunina, R. V. Elkan, X. Xu","doi":"10.5089/9781513561165.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513561165.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"Europe’s high pre-existing level of financial development can partly account for the relatively smaller reach of fintech payment and lending activities compared to some other regions. But fintech activity is growing rapidly. Digital payment schemes are expanding within countries, although cross-border and pan-euro area instruments are not yet widespread, notwithstanding important enabling EU level regulation and the establishment of instant payments by the ECB. Automated lending models are developing but remain limited mainly to unsecured consumer lending. While start-ups are pursuing platform-based approaches under minimal regulation, there is a clear trend for fintech companies to acquire balance sheets and, relatedly, banking licenses as they expand. Meanwhile, competition is pushing many traditional banks to adopt fintech instruments, either in-house or by acquisition, thereby causing them to increasingly resemble balanced sheet-based fintech companies. These developments could improve the efficiency and reach of financial intermediation while also adding to profitability pressures for some banks. Although the COVID-19 pandemic could call into question the viability of platform-based lending fintechs funding models given that investors could face much higher delinquencies, it may also offer growth opportunities to those fintechs that are positioned to take advantage of the ongoing structural shift in demand toward virtual finance.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"116 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79627599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
COVID-19 and the CPI: Is Inflation Underestimated? COVID-19与CPI:通胀被低估了吗?
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513560281.001
Marshall B. Reinsdorf
{"title":"COVID-19 and the CPI: Is Inflation Underestimated?","authors":"Marshall B. Reinsdorf","doi":"10.5089/9781513560281.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513560281.001","url":null,"abstract":"COVID-19 changed consumers’ spending patterns, making the CPI weights suddenly obsolete. In most regions, adjusting the CPI weights to account for the changes in spending patterns increases the estimate of inflation over the early months of the pandemic. Under-weighting of rising food prices and over-weighting of falling transport prices are the main causes of the underestimation of inflation. Updated CPI weights should be developed as soon as is feasible, but flux in spending patterns during the pandemic complicates the development as quickly as 2021 of weights that represent post-pandemic spending patterns.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78641047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 24
Twenty Years of Unconventional Monetary Policies: Lessons and Way Forward for the Bank of Japan 二十年的非常规货币政策:日本央行的经验教训与未来之路
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513560359.001
N. Westelius
{"title":"Twenty Years of Unconventional Monetary Policies: Lessons and Way Forward for the Bank of Japan","authors":"N. Westelius","doi":"10.5089/9781513560359.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513560359.001","url":null,"abstract":"The Bank of Japan has used unconventional monetary policies to fight deflation and stabilize the financial system since the late 1990s. While the Bank of Japan’s reflation efforts have evolved over time, inflation and inflation expectations have remained stubbornly low. This paper examines the evolution of monetary policy in Japan over the past twenty years, in order to draw relevant lessons and propose ways to strengthen the Bank of Japan’s policy framework. In doing so the analysis focuses on three aspects of monetary policy: objectives and goals; policy strategies; and the communication framework. Moreover, the paper discusses coordination between monetary, fiscal, and financial policies, and how the corresponding institutional design could be strengthened.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81820614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
China's Rebalancing: Opportunities and Challenges for LAC Exporters 中国经济再平衡:拉美和加勒比地区出口商的机遇与挑战
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513561141.001
nitya aasaavari, Fabio Di Vittorio, Ana Lariau, Yuebo Li, Rui C. Mano, P. Rodríguez
{"title":"China's Rebalancing: Opportunities and Challenges for LAC Exporters","authors":"nitya aasaavari, Fabio Di Vittorio, Ana Lariau, Yuebo Li, Rui C. Mano, P. Rodríguez","doi":"10.5089/9781513561141.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513561141.001","url":null,"abstract":"Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), two regions with large growth potential, have become increasingly connected over the last 20 years. China has emerged not only as a top trading partner, but also as an important competitor of LAC exports. China’s retreat from certain markets, due to the ongoing rebalancing process, could open new opportunities for LAC exporters but also entail some challenges. Our results show that China’s rebalancing will have an overall positive effect on LAC’s GDP and exports in the long run, but this effect is small and uneven across countries, leading to winners and losers. We also provide evidence that other countries, such as India, are currently trying to fill the gap left by China and could undermine LAC’s competitive advantage in some export markets. In this context, reduction of trade barriers and further integration within the region and/or with the rest of the world would lead to unequivocally positive outcomes for all LAC countries. The COVID-19 shock might exacerbate the effects identified in our analysis.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89081723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Optimism Bias in Growth Forecasts-The Role of Planned Policy Adjustments 增长预测中的乐观偏见——计划政策调整的作用
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513560373.001
Kareem Ismail, Roberto A. Perrelli, Jessie Yang
{"title":"Optimism Bias in Growth Forecasts-The Role of Planned Policy Adjustments","authors":"Kareem Ismail, Roberto A. Perrelli, Jessie Yang","doi":"10.5089/9781513560373.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513560373.001","url":null,"abstract":"Are IMF growth forecasts systematically optimistic? And if so, what is the role of planned policy adjustments on this outcome? Are program forecasts as biased as surveillance forecasts? We try to answer these questions using a comprehensive database on IMF forecasts of economic growth in surveillance and program cases during 2003–2017. We find that large planned fiscal and external adjustments are associated with optimistic growth projections, with significant non-linearities for both program and surveillance cases. Specifically, we find evidence that larger planned fiscal adjustment is associated with higher growth optimism in IMF non-concessional, non-precautionary financial arrangements. Our results show the tendency for optimism has persisted in the period after the Global Financial Crisis. Moreover, the strong correlation between the magnitude of the optimism and expected fiscal consolidation provides a cautionary signal for the post-COVID IMF projections as countries embark on a path of fiscal adjustment.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74918333","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
External Private Financing and Domestic Revenue Mobilization: A Dilemma? 外部私人融资与国内收入动员:进退两难?
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513560397.001
H. Balima, D. Daly, B. Loko
{"title":"External Private Financing and Domestic Revenue Mobilization: A Dilemma?","authors":"H. Balima, D. Daly, B. Loko","doi":"10.5089/9781513560397.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513560397.001","url":null,"abstract":"Domestic revenue mobilization (DRM) is essential for low-income and emerging economies to sustainably finance their development needs and has received increasing attention in recent years. Studies have centered on structural factors such as the size and the structure of the economy, and the quality of institutions, notably to account for weaknesses in revenue administrations. Nevertheless, DRM can take time and carry political costs. Raising more financing through donors or private investors may be an easier and more politically palatable way for countries to meet spending needs. Using an impact assessment methodology and panel regressions over a sample of 72 developing countries, we found no evidence that access to bond markets or external commercial loans undermines the countries’ efforts to collect tax revenue. On the contrary, we found that access to markets has a positive impact on domestic revenue mobilization. Plausible explanations are that private financing must be repaid, and strong macroeconomic fundamentals are key for maintaining market access. We have also found that macroeconomic stability and the strength of institutions do matter for domestic revenue mobilization.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"100 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82393677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Public Debt Dynamics and Intra-Year Exchange Rate Fluctuations 公共债务动态和年内汇率波动
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513561585.001
Santiago LE Acosta Ormaechea
{"title":"Public Debt Dynamics and Intra-Year Exchange Rate Fluctuations","authors":"Santiago LE Acosta Ormaechea","doi":"10.5089/9781513561585.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513561585.001","url":null,"abstract":"The public sector, in carrying out its operations, often incurs foreign currency denominated liabilities and, as such, is exposed to exchange rate fluctuations that could affect the value of public debt to GDP ratios over time. This paper shows that converting foreign currency denominated flows and stocks into local currency using the average and the end-of-period exchange rates, respectively, as envisaged in public finance manuals, gives rise to an identifiable stock-flow adjustment term—due to intra-year exchange rate fluctuations—that affects public debt accumulation. Importantly, the inclusion of this often-ignored stock-flow adjustment term is critical to accurately project public debt levels and any related indicator that could in turn inform about the risk of debt distress. Using a novel dataset covering 82 countries during 2008–19, the paper shows that this stock flow adjustment term is sizable in countries experiencing large exchange rate depreciations, namely above the 99th percentile of the full sample, reaching 1.2 percent of GDP. Interestingly, the measurement of policy-related concepts such as interest rate-growth differentials and debt stabilizing primary balances are also affected by intra-year exchange rate fluctuations, and in non-negligible ways.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86059771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
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