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Will the AI Revolution Cause a Great Divergence? 人工智能革命会导致大分化吗?
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513556505.001
Cristian Alonso, A. Berg, Siddharth Kothari, C. Papageorgiou, Sidra Rehman
{"title":"Will the AI Revolution Cause a Great Divergence?","authors":"Cristian Alonso, A. Berg, Siddharth Kothari, C. Papageorgiou, Sidra Rehman","doi":"10.5089/9781513556505.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513556505.001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper considers the implications for developing countries of a new wave of technological change that substitutes pervasively for labor. It makes simple and plausible assumptions: the AI revolution can be modeled as an increase in productivity of a distinct type of capital that substitutes closely with labor; and the only fundamental difference between the advanced and developing country is the level of TFP. This set-up is minimalist, but the resulting conclusions are powerful: improvements in the productivity of “robots” drive divergence, as advanced countries differentially benefit from their initially higher robot intensity, driven by their endogenously higher wages and stock of complementary traditional capital. In addition, capital—if internationally mobile—is pulled “uphill”, resulting in a transitional GDP decline in the developing country. In an extended model where robots substitute only for unskilled labor, the terms of trade, and hence GDP, may decline permanently for the country relatively well-endowed in unskilled labor.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89420655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 21
Intangible Investment and Low Inflation: A Framework and Some Evidence 无形投资与低通胀:一个框架和一些证据
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513557335.001
S. Lall, L. Zeng
{"title":"Intangible Investment and Low Inflation: A Framework and Some Evidence","authors":"S. Lall, L. Zeng","doi":"10.5089/9781513557335.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513557335.001","url":null,"abstract":"Intangible investment is growing as a share of economic activity. We present a simple framework incorporating its distinguishing characteristic of generally greater scalability and lower marginal costs than tangible investment. We show evidence that this may have contributed to more elastic aggregate supply in recent years, which is consistent with lower inflation and a flattening of the Phillips curve. This framework also highlights the channels through which technological change, a large constituent of intangible investment, may be leading to wage stagnation and greater market concentration.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85594126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Impact of Remittances on Natural Rate of Dollarization-Trends in Caucasus and Central Asia 汇款对自然美元化率的影响——高加索和中亚的趋势
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513556536.001.A001
Rocío Gondo, A. Aidarova, Manmohan Singh
{"title":"Impact of Remittances on Natural Rate of Dollarization-Trends in Caucasus and Central Asia","authors":"Rocío Gondo, A. Aidarova, Manmohan Singh","doi":"10.5089/9781513556536.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513556536.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper discusses migration and remittances trends, and calculates the natural (or benchmark) level of dollarization in Caucasus, Central Asia and others in the region. This natural level of dollarization is conceptually linked to the currency allocation in a portfolio of deposits to maximize welfare, in line with Ize and Levy Yeyati (2003). The fall in remittances due to the economic slowdown since the spread of COVID-19 affects the macroeconomic fundamentals that determine demand for foreign currency deposits. We calculate the natural dollarization level by integrating structural macroeconomic characteristics. We show that despite the reduction in deposit dollarization, there is still a gap with respect to the natural level of dollarization, especially in a scenario of (persistent) lower remittance inflows.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"70 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87945970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Worker Mobility and Domestic Production Networks 工人流动和国内生产网络
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513557724.001
Marvin Cardoza, F. Grigoli, Nicola Pierri, Cian Ruane
{"title":"Worker Mobility and Domestic Production Networks","authors":"Marvin Cardoza, F. Grigoli, Nicola Pierri, Cian Ruane","doi":"10.5089/9781513557724.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513557724.001","url":null,"abstract":"We show that domestic production networks shape worker flows between firms. Data on the universe of firm-to-firm transactions for the Dominican Republic, matched with employer-employee records, reveals that about 20 percent of workers who change firms move to a buyer or supplier of their original firm. This is a considerably larger share than would be implied by a random allocation of movers to firms. We find considerable gains associated with this form of hiring: higher worker wages, lower job separation rates, faster firm productivity growth, and faster coworker wage growth. Hiring workers from a supplier is followed by a rising share of purchases from that supplier. These findings indicate that human capital is easily transferable along the supply chain and that human capital accumulated while working at a firm is complementary with the intermediate products/services produced by that firm.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77787451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
The Fiscal Multiplier of Public Investment: The Role of Corporate Balance Sheet 公共投资的财政乘数:企业资产负债表的作用
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513557694.001
Raphael A. Espinoza, Juliana Gamboa-Arbeláez, Mouhamadou Sy
{"title":"The Fiscal Multiplier of Public Investment: The Role of Corporate Balance Sheet","authors":"Raphael A. Espinoza, Juliana Gamboa-Arbeláez, Mouhamadou Sy","doi":"10.5089/9781513557694.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513557694.001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores whether public investment crowds out or crowds in private investment. To this aim, we build a database of about half a million firms from 49 countries. We find that the effect of public investment on corporate investment depends both on leverage and financial constraints. Public investment boosts private investment for firms with low leverage. However, for firms with high leverage, private investment does not react to an increase in public investment, in line with theory (Myers 1977). We also find that the effect of public investment on corporate investment is much weaker for firms that are financially constrained.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87166144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
The Monetary Policy Credibility Channel and the Amplification Effects in a Semi-Structural Model 半结构模型下的货币政策可信度通道及其放大效应
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513557717.001
Thitipat Chansriniyom, Natan P. Epstein, Valeriu Nalban
{"title":"The Monetary Policy Credibility Channel and the Amplification Effects in a Semi-Structural Model","authors":"Thitipat Chansriniyom, Natan P. Epstein, Valeriu Nalban","doi":"10.5089/9781513557717.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513557717.001","url":null,"abstract":"The paper extends a standard semi-structural model to account for nonlinear and asymmetric effects of monetary policy credibility. In our setting, central bank credibility is proportional to the deviation of inflation expectations from the announced inflation target, with positive deviations being more costly compared to negative ones. A loss in policy credibility as a result of shocks leads to a more persistent, backward-looking inflation process, and is associated with lower output. We find that the extended model with credibility effects matches well the key macroeconomic data over specific past episodes for Indonesia and Philippines and consider its adaptation to integrated policy frameworks as an area for further exploration.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89612655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Financial Amplification of Labor Supply Shocks 劳动力供给冲击的金融放大
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513557311.001
N. Biljanovska, Alexandros P. Vardoulakis
{"title":"Financial Amplification of Labor Supply Shocks","authors":"N. Biljanovska, Alexandros P. Vardoulakis","doi":"10.5089/9781513557311.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513557311.001","url":null,"abstract":"We study how financial frictions amplify labor supply shocks in a macroeconomic model with occasionally binding financing constraints. Workers supply labor to entrepreneurs who borrow to purchase factors of production. Borrowing capacity is restricted by the value of capital, generating a pecuniary externality when financing constraints bind. Additionally, there is a distributive externality operating through wages. The planner’s allocation can be decentralized with two instruments: a credit tax/subsidy and a labor tax/subsidy. Labor shocks, such as the COVID-19 shock, amplify the policy responses, which critically depend on whether financing constraints bind or not.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85603840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Market Power, Growth, and Inclusion: The South African Experience 市场力量、增长与包容:南非的经验
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513557731.001
Vimal J. Thakoor
{"title":"Market Power, Growth, and Inclusion: The South African Experience","authors":"Vimal J. Thakoor","doi":"10.5089/9781513557731.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513557731.001","url":null,"abstract":"Before the pandemic, the South African economy remained stuck in low gear, with anemic growth, stagnant private investment, and a shrinking tradable sector. Subdued growth has raised unemployment, poverty, and inequality, hindering inclusion efforts. The pandemic has worsened economic and social vulnerabilities. Economic recovery and social inclusion hinge critically on structural reforms to boost competiveness and growth. Product markets represent a cornerstone of the reform strategy. Firms have used their market power to drive up prices and limit competition. Important state-owned monopolies provide low-quality services, while representing a fiscal drag. Existing regulations inhibit the entry of both domestic and foreign firms. Addressing product markets constraints could boost per capita growth by 1 percentage point—adding about 2½ percentage points to headline growth—and foster greater inclusion.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76386978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Demographics and the Housing Market: Japan's Disappearing Cities 人口统计和房地产市场:日本正在消失的城市
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513557700.001
Y. Hashimoto, G. Hong, Xiaoxiao Zhang
{"title":"Demographics and the Housing Market: Japan's Disappearing Cities","authors":"Y. Hashimoto, G. Hong, Xiaoxiao Zhang","doi":"10.5089/9781513557700.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513557700.001","url":null,"abstract":"How does a shrinking population affect the housing market? In this study, drawing on Japan’s experience, we find that there exists an asymmetric relationship between housing prices and population change. Due to the durability of housing structures, the decline in housing prices associated with population losses is estimated to be larger than the rise in prices associated with population increases. Given that population losses have been and are projected to be more acute in rural areas than urban areas in Japan, the on-going demographic transition in Japan could worsen regional disparities, as falling house prices in rural areas could intensify population outflows. Policy measures to promote more even population growth across regions, and avoid the over-supply of houses, are critical to stabilize house prices with a shrinking population.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"83 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73703119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Are Bilateral Trade Balances Irrelevant? 双边贸易平衡无关紧要吗?
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513557793.001
Johannes L. Eugster, Florence Jaumotte, Margaux MacDonald, R. Piazza
{"title":"Are Bilateral Trade Balances Irrelevant?","authors":"Johannes L. Eugster, Florence Jaumotte, Margaux MacDonald, R. Piazza","doi":"10.5089/9781513557793.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513557793.001","url":null,"abstract":"Based on an empirical gravity model of sectoral bilateral trade, we uncover three features of bilateral trade balances. First, the difficulty of gravity models in fitting the observed level of bilateral balances is likely due to the presence of unobservable bilateral trade costs. Second, the model fit improves drastically when we focus on changes over time of the balances. Third, using a log linear approximation we show that changes in bilateral trade balances over the past two decades were driven almost entirely by changes in the same macro factors that determine countries’ aggregate balances – changes in bilateral trade costs, including tariffs, played therefore only a negligible role. This conclusion provides new support for the view that bilateral balances are, for practical purposes, not relevant to the conduct of macroeconomic policy.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80028510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
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