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House Prices and Macroprudential Policies: Evidence from City-Level Data in India 房价与宏观审慎政策:来自印度城市层面数据的证据
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513552514.001.A001
Bhupal Singh
{"title":"House Prices and Macroprudential Policies: Evidence from City-Level Data in India","authors":"Bhupal Singh","doi":"10.5089/9781513552514.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513552514.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the efficacy of macroprudential policies in addressing housing prices in a developing country while underscoring the importance of fundamental factors. The estimated models using city-level data for India suggest a strong influence of fundamental factors in driving housing prices. There is compelling evidence of the effectiveness of macroprudential tools viz., Loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, risk weights, and provisioning requirements, in influencing housing price movements. A granular analysis suggests an even stronger impact on housing prices of a change in the regulatory LTV ratio for large-sized vis-a-vis small-sized mortgages, which buttresses their potency in fighting house price speculations. A tightening of the risk weights on the housing assets of banks causes significant downward pressure on house prices. Similarly, regulatory changes in standard asset provisioning on housing loans also influence house prices.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"57 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88863928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Assessing Dutch Fiscal and Debt Sustainability 评估荷兰财政和债务可持续性
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513557496.001.A001
Benjamin Carton, Armand Fouejieu
{"title":"Assessing Dutch Fiscal and Debt Sustainability","authors":"Benjamin Carton, Armand Fouejieu","doi":"10.5089/9781513557496.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513557496.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"Although the Netherlands entered the so-called Great Lockdown with a strong fiscal position, the Dutch fiscal balance is projected to deteriorate by an unprecedented magnitude, largely as a result of necessary fiscal measures deployed to weather the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper performs a stochastic analysis of risks to Dutch fiscal and debt sustainability over the next decade, taking into account alternative recovery scenarios and associated fiscal consolidation paths and also a range of macroeconomic shocks drawn from the historical experience of the Netherlands. The simulations show that even under significant downturn scenarios and assuming an initially less favorable fiscal position due to persistent economic effects of the pandemic, risks to the Dutch fiscal and debt sustainability would remain contained.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"83 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89843437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Small and Vulnerable: Small Firm Productivity in the Great Productivity Slowdown 小而脆弱:大生产率放缓中的小企业生产率
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513564647.001.A001
Sophia Chen, Do Q Lee
{"title":"Small and Vulnerable: Small Firm Productivity in the Great Productivity Slowdown","authors":"Sophia Chen, Do Q Lee","doi":"10.5089/9781513564647.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513564647.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"We provide broad-based evidence of a firm size premium of total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Europe after the Global Financial Crisis. The TFP growth of smaller firms was more adversely affected and diverged from their larger counterparts after the crisis. The impact was progressively larger for medium, small, and micro firms relative to large firms. It was also disproportionally larger for firms with limited credit market access. Moreover, smaller firms were less likely to have access to safer banks: those that were better capitalized banks and with a presence in the credit default swap market. Horseraces suggest that firm size may be a more important and robust vulnerability indicator than balance sheet characteristics. Our results imply that the tightening of credit market conditions during the crisis, coupled with limited credit market access especially among micro, small, and medium firms, may have contributed to the large and persistent drop in aggregate TFP.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75589597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Youth Unemployment in Uruguay 乌拉圭青年失业问题
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513563947.001
J. Torres, Sidonia McKenzie
{"title":"Youth Unemployment in Uruguay","authors":"J. Torres, Sidonia McKenzie","doi":"10.5089/9781513563947.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513563947.001","url":null,"abstract":"Uruguay enjoys favorable social outcomes, and its labor indicators are comparable to other Latin American countries, but its youth unemployment is one of the highest in the world. To help understand this duality, we employ synthetic panels from repeated household surveys for LA6 countries from 1990-2018 to investigate the determinants of the youth-to-adult unemployment gap. We find that a large part of the Uruguayan gap cannot be explained by standard variables, which opens the possibility that other uncontrolled factors, including labor market institutions, might be at play.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"100 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74474310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Reconsidering Climate Mitigation Policy in the UK 重新考虑英国的气候减缓政策
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513561264.001
Nicolás Arregui, I. Parry
{"title":"Reconsidering Climate Mitigation Policy in the UK","authors":"Nicolás Arregui, I. Parry","doi":"10.5089/9781513561264.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513561264.001","url":null,"abstract":"The UK has pledged to cut greenhouse gases 57 percent below 1990 levels by 2030, to be emisisons neutral by 2050, and to phase out internal combustion engine vehicles by 2030. Much progress has been made, but fully achieving these ambitious objectives with the current policy framework will be challenging as it involves multiple and overlapping pricing schemes with significant sectoral differences in carbon prices and may be difficult to scale up on political and administrative grounds. This paper discusses an alternative framework consisting of: (i) a comprehensive carbon price (ideally a tax) rising to at least £60 (US $75) per ton by 2030; and (ii) reinforcing sectoral policies, most importantly feebates for the transport, industrial, and building sectors. This framework could implement mitigation targets, while limiting burdens on households and firms to enhance acceptability, and still raise revenues of 0.8 percent of GDP in 2030. The UK could also leverage its COP26 presidency to promote dialogue on international carbon price floors and pricing of international transport emissions.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85509808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Government Insurance Against Natural Disasters: An Application to the ECCU 政府自然灾害保险:在ECCU中的应用
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513563329.001
Alejandro D Guerson
{"title":"Government Insurance Against Natural Disasters: An Application to the ECCU","authors":"Alejandro D Guerson","doi":"10.5089/9781513563329.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513563329.001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper estimates insurance requirements against natural disasters (NDs) in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) using an insurance layering framework. The layers include a government saving fund, as well as market instruments. Each layer is calibrated to cover estimated fiscal cost of NDs according to intensity and expected damage. The results indicate that ECCU countries could target saving fund stocks for relativelly smaller and more frequent events in the range of 6-12 percent of GDP, enough to cover 95 percent of NDs’ fiscal costs. To ensure financially-sustainable saving funds with a low probability of depletion, this requires annual budget savings in the range os 0.5 to 1.9 percent of GDP per year. Additional coverage could be obtained with market instruments for large and less frequent events, albeit at a significant cost.The results are based on a Monte-Carlo experiment that simulates natural disaster shocks and their impact on output and government finances.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"117 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79986376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Addressing the Pandemic's Medium-Term Fallout in Australia and New Zealand 应对大流行对澳大利亚和新西兰的中期影响
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513563282.001
Geoffrey J. Bannister, H. Finger, Yosuke Kido, Siddharth Kothari, Elena Loukoianova
{"title":"Addressing the Pandemic's Medium-Term Fallout in Australia and New Zealand","authors":"Geoffrey J. Bannister, H. Finger, Yosuke Kido, Siddharth Kothari, Elena Loukoianova","doi":"10.5089/9781513563282.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513563282.001","url":null,"abstract":"While the world is focused on addressing the near-term ramifications of the COVID-19 shock, we turn attention to another important aspect of the pandemic: its fallout on medium-term potential output through scarring. Taking Australia and New Zealand as examples, we show that the pandemic will likely have a large and persistent impact on potential output, broadly in line with the experience of advanced economies from past recessions. The impact is driven by employment, capital stock, and productivity losses in the wake of an unprecedented sectoral reallocation, hightened uncertainty, and reduced migration. Maintaining fiscal and monetary policy support until the recovery is firmly entrenched and putting in place a strong structural policy agenda to counter the pandemic’s adverse effects on medium-term potential output will be important to support standards of living and strengthen economic resilience in case of renewed shocks.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"170 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74873377","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Government Intervention and Bank Market Power: Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis for the COVID-19 Crisis 政府干预与银行市场力量:全球金融危机对新冠肺炎危机的教训
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513563886.001
B. Tan, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, Nicola Pierri, A. Presbitero
{"title":"Government Intervention and Bank Market Power: Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis for the COVID-19 Crisis","authors":"B. Tan, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, Nicola Pierri, A. Presbitero","doi":"10.5089/9781513563886.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513563886.001","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic could result in large government interventions in the banking industry. To shed light on the possible consequences on market power, we rely on the experience of the global financial crisis and exploit granular data on government interventions in more than 800 banks across 27 countries between 2007 and 2017. For identification, we use a multivariate matching method. We find that intervened banks experience a significant decline in market power with respect to matched non-intervened banks. This effect is more pronounced for larger and longer interventions and is driven by a rise in costs—mostly because of higher loan impairment charges—which is not followed by a similar increase in prices.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75943395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Identifying Reform Priorities: The Role of Non-Linearities 确定改革重点:非线性因素的作用
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513563909.001
Klaus Hellwig
{"title":"Identifying Reform Priorities: The Role of Non-Linearities","authors":"Klaus Hellwig","doi":"10.5089/9781513563909.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513563909.001","url":null,"abstract":"Can countries improve their business climate through reforms in specific policy areas? Kraay and Tawara (2013) find that the answer depends on how we measure the business climate. When regressing seven different business climate indices on 38 policy indicators, they find little agreement among the seven models as to which of those policy indicators matter most. I revisit this puzzle using the same data but replacing their linear models with a Random Forest algorithm. I find a strong consensus across models on the importance ranking of policy indicators: No matter which business climate index is considered, the top ten contributors to a better business climate always include high recovery rates in insolvency proceedings (i.e., cents on the dollar for creditors), shorter border formalities for both importers and exporters, and low costs for starting a business. I show that the marginal effect of reforms is heterogeneous across countries and document how reform priorities depend on country specific circumstances.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"427 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78161480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Managing External Volatility: Policy Frameworks in Non-Reserve Issuing Economies 管理外部波动:非发行储备经济体的政策框架
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513564562.001
Helene Poirson Ward, Nathan E. Porter, G. Fayad, Itai Agur, Ran Bi, Jiaqian Chen, Johannes L. Eugster, Stefan Laséen, Jeta Menkulasi, K. Moriyama, C. Rochon, Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, Camilo Ernesto Tovar Mora, Zhongxia Zhang, A. Zdzienicka
{"title":"Managing External Volatility: Policy Frameworks in Non-Reserve Issuing Economies","authors":"Helene Poirson Ward, Nathan E. Porter, G. Fayad, Itai Agur, Ran Bi, Jiaqian Chen, Johannes L. Eugster, Stefan Laséen, Jeta Menkulasi, K. Moriyama, C. Rochon, Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, Camilo Ernesto Tovar Mora, Zhongxia Zhang, A. Zdzienicka","doi":"10.5089/9781513564562.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513564562.001","url":null,"abstract":"Since the global financial crisis, non-reserve-issuing economies (NREs) have been highly sensitive to episodes of external pressures. With monetary policy independence constrained by this sensitivity, many NREs have utilized other policy instruments. This paper confirms the vulnerability of NREs to external shocks and finds that in some circumstances managing such shocks with multiple instruments can both lessen the policy response required from any one policy tool to financial and external shocks and increase the effectiveness of policies in stabilizing macro-financial conditions. Effectiveness however does not always imply appropriateness, which rests on an evaluation of potential trade-offs and unintended consequences.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"49 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85864518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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