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Unconventional Monetary Policies in Emerging Markets and Frontier Countries 新兴市场和前沿国家的非常规货币政策
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513567211.001.A001
Chiara Fratto, Brendan Harnoys Vannier, Borislava Mircheva, David de Padua, H. Poirson
{"title":"Unconventional Monetary Policies in Emerging Markets and Frontier Countries","authors":"Chiara Fratto, Brendan Harnoys Vannier, Borislava Mircheva, David de Padua, H. Poirson","doi":"10.5089/9781513567211.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513567211.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 crisis induced an unprecedented launch of unconventional monetary policy through asset purchase programs (APPs) by emerging market and developing economies. This paper presents a new dataset of APP announcements and implementation from March until August 2020 for 27 emerging markets and 8 small advanced economies. APPs’ effects on bond yields, exchange rates, equities, and debt spreads are estimated using different methodologies. The results confirm that APPs were successful in significantly reducing bond yields in EMDEs, and these effects were stronger than those of policy rate cuts, suggesting that such UMP could be important tools for EMDEs during financial market stress.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79221312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 25
Fiscal Dominance in Sub-Saharan Africa Revisited 重新审视撒哈拉以南非洲的财政主导地位
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513567747.001
J. Hooley, Lam M. Nguyen, Mika Saito, Shirin Nikaein Towfighian
{"title":"Fiscal Dominance in Sub-Saharan Africa Revisited","authors":"J. Hooley, Lam M. Nguyen, Mika Saito, Shirin Nikaein Towfighian","doi":"10.5089/9781513567747.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513567747.001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores the causes and consequences of fiscal dominance over monetary policy in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Fiscal dominance has always been a pressing problem as it can contribute to inflation and macroeconomic instability, and increasingly so as fiscal deficits and public debt are rising in many SSA countries. We find that legal limits and availability of alternative financing options play an important role in determining the extent to which government deficits tend to be financed by the central bank. We also find economically significant effects of central bank lending to government on the exchange rate and inflation.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77538586","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Is Regional Trade Integration a Growth and Convergence Engine in Africa? 区域贸易一体化是非洲经济增长和融合的引擎吗?
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513567716.001.A001
Vigninou Gammadigbé
{"title":"Is Regional Trade Integration a Growth and Convergence Engine in Africa?","authors":"Vigninou Gammadigbé","doi":"10.5089/9781513567716.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513567716.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"The main objective of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) is to stimulate economic growth in participating countries through increased trade, economies of scale, knowledge and technology transfer. Using a panel data over the period 1979 to 2018, this paper examines the contribution of regional trade integration (RTI) to economic growth and income convergence in Africa and its major Regional Economic Communities (RECs). The results of the instrumental variable and panel fixed-effects estimation show that RTI promotes economic growth in Africa. However, it fosters income divergence, reflecting the distribution of the gains from regional integration in favor of the more developed economies of the continent. The results of this study show the importance to support the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) project with policies aimed at reducing non-tariff barriers to trade and improving infrastructure in order to maximize the effects on growth in all participating countries.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86310345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Role of Individual Characteristics and Policies in Driving Labor Informality in Vietnam 个人特征与政策在越南劳动力非正式化中的作用
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513563862.001.A001
Era Dabla‐Norris, Giovanni Ganelli, Anh T. N. Nguyen, Mai Thi Thanh Nguyen, Thu Thu Vu
{"title":"Role of Individual Characteristics and Policies in Driving Labor Informality in Vietnam","authors":"Era Dabla‐Norris, Giovanni Ganelli, Anh T. N. Nguyen, Mai Thi Thanh Nguyen, Thu Thu Vu","doi":"10.5089/9781513563862.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513563862.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"Using data from the Vietnam Labor Force Survey, this paper takes a granular look at the most\u0000salient drivers of labor informality in Vietnam by examining: (i) the nature of labor informality\u0000and transitions from formal to informal employment status and the role of worker characteristics;\u0000(ii) the empirical likelihood of being in informal employment and the policy determinants of\u0000informality using within-in country variation in the business climate and governance; and (iii)\u0000whether different policy reforms have a differential impact on workers. Our analysis sheds light\u0000on how individual characteristics and policy impediments contribute to high levels of informality\u0000and points to the need for a comprehensive agenda to tackle informality.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76975478","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Modeling Trade Tensions: Different Mechanisms in General Equilibrium 贸易紧张建模:一般均衡中的不同机制
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513561615.001
B. Hunt, Rafael A. Portillo, Susanna Mursula, M. Santoro
{"title":"Modeling Trade Tensions: Different Mechanisms in General Equilibrium","authors":"B. Hunt, Rafael A. Portillo, Susanna Mursula, M. Santoro","doi":"10.5089/9781513561615.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513561615.001","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we investigate the mechanisms through which import tariffs impact the macroeconomy in two large scale workhorse models used for quantitative policy analysis: a computational general equilibrium (CGE) model (Purdue University GTAP model) and a multi-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model (IMF GIMF model). The quantitative effects of an increase in tariffs reflect different mechanisms at work. Like other models in the trade literature, in GTAP higher tariffs generate a loss in terms of output arising from an inefficient reallocation of resources between sectors. In GIMF instead, as in other DSGE models, tariffs act as a disincentive to factor utilization. We show that the two models/channels can be broadly interpreted as capturing the impact of tariffs on different components of a country’s aggregate production function: aggregate productivity (GTAP) and factor supply/utilization (GIMF). We discuss ways to combine the estimates from these two models to provide a more complete assessment of the macro effects of tariffs.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85810248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Effects of Emerging Market Asset Purchase Program Announcements on Financial Markets During the COVID-19 Pandemic 新冠疫情期间新兴市场资产购买计划公告对金融市场的影响
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513564661.001
Can Sever, Rohit Goel, D. Drakopoulos, Evangelos Papageorgiou
{"title":"Effects of Emerging Market Asset Purchase Program Announcements on Financial Markets During the COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"Can Sever, Rohit Goel, D. Drakopoulos, Evangelos Papageorgiou","doi":"10.5089/9781513564661.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513564661.001","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic led many emerging market central banks to adopt, for the first time, unconventional policies in the form of asset purchase programs. In this study, we analyze the effects of these announcements on domestic financial markets using both \u0000event studies and local projections methodology. We find that these asset purchase announcements lowered bond yields, did not lead to a depreciation of domestic currencies, and did not have much effect on equities. While the immediate effect of asset purchases appears positive, further consideration of the risks and longer-term effects of unconventional monetary policies is needed. We highlight the trade-offs involved with the implementation of these measures, and discuss their risks. This working paper adds to the debate on how asset purchase programs should be a regular part of the emerging market policy toolkit.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78442167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 25
A Unified Model of Cohort Mortality for Economic Analysis 用于经济分析的统一队列死亡率模型
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.3386/w28193
A. Lleras-Muney, Flavien Moreau
{"title":"A Unified Model of Cohort Mortality for Economic Analysis","authors":"A. Lleras-Muney, Flavien Moreau","doi":"10.3386/w28193","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28193","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a dynamic production function of population health and mortality from birth onwards. Our parsimonious model provides an excellent fit for the mortality and survival curves for both primate and human populations since 1816. The model sheds light on the dynamics behind many phenomena documented in the literature, including (i) the existence and evolution of mortality gradients across socio-economic statuses, (ii) non-monotonic dynamic effects of in-utero shocks, (iii) persistent or “scarring” effects of wars and (iv) mortality displacement after large temporary shocks such as extreme weather.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89336171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Confidence as a Driver of Private Investment in Selected Countries of Central America 信心对中美洲部分国家私人投资的推动作用
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513563275.001.A001
Carlos Janada, Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru
{"title":"Confidence as a Driver of Private Investment in Selected Countries of Central America","authors":"Carlos Janada, Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru","doi":"10.5089/9781513563275.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513563275.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper argues that structural weaknesses may make private investment particularly sensitive to business confidence relative to other traditional investment drivers and global shocks. It gauges the importance of confidence over recent years in selected countries in Central America, including Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, and Guatemala. Using a vector error correction model to carry out the empirical work, a system representing global activity and the domestic economy, including a set of investment drivers (interest rates, unit labor costs, and confidence) is analyzed. The findings suggest that confidence has been, on average, the most important driver of investment in these countries, exceeded only by global factors. Since confidence, arguably, can be influenced by policymakers’ decisions, structural reforms to improve the business climate and reduce uncertainty play an important role in promoting investment and economic growth.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87603444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Tax Policy and Inclusive Growth 税收政策与包容性增长
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513561561.001.A001
Khaled Abdel-Kader, Ruud A. De Mooij
{"title":"Tax Policy and Inclusive Growth","authors":"Khaled Abdel-Kader, Ruud A. De Mooij","doi":"10.5089/9781513561561.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513561561.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper discusses the theory and practice of tax design to achieve an efficient and equitable outcome, i.e. in support of inclusive growth. It starts with a discussion of the key principles from tax theory to guide practical tax design. Then, it elaborates on more granular tax policy, discussing key choices in the structure of the personal income tax on labor and capital income, taxes on wealth, the corporate income tax, and consumption taxes. The paper concludes by highlighting the political economy considerations of the issues with concrete recommedtions as to how to implement tax reform.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89364925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 14
Predicting Macroeconomic and Macrofinancial Stress in Low-Income Countries 预测低收入国家的宏观经济和宏观金融压力
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513564609.001.A001
Hans Weisfeld, Irineu de Carvalho Filho, F. Comelli, Rahul Giri, Klaus Hellwig, Chengyu Huang, Fei Liu, Sandra Lizarazo Ruiz, Alexis Mayer Cirkel, A. Presbitero
{"title":"Predicting Macroeconomic and Macrofinancial Stress in Low-Income Countries","authors":"Hans Weisfeld, Irineu de Carvalho Filho, F. Comelli, Rahul Giri, Klaus Hellwig, Chengyu Huang, Fei Liu, Sandra Lizarazo Ruiz, Alexis Mayer Cirkel, A. Presbitero","doi":"10.5089/9781513564609.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513564609.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"In recent years, Fund staff has prepared cross-country analyses of macroeconomic vulnerabilities in low-income countries, focusing on the risk of sharp declines in economic growth and of debt distress. We discuss routes to broadening this focus by adding several macroeconomic and macrofinancial vulnerability concepts. The associated early warning systems draw on advances in predictive modeling.","PeriodicalId":14326,"journal":{"name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series","volume":"110 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75271192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
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