{"title":"Determinants of India's cotton export performance: An empirical analysis","authors":"Alok Kumar Yadav, Utpal Chattopadhyay","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100521","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100521","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Cotton export performance plays a critical role in bridging the gaps in India's soaring trade deficits and helps in maximizing the overall gains from international trade. We examine the impact of macroeconomic determinants on India's cotton export performance using data from 1990 to 2020. To assess the long-run and short-run impacts on cotton export performance, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model has been deployed. The findings reveal that yield and export price have had statistically positive significant impact on India's cotton export performance over the long-run and short-run. However, the resulting estimates of market size and exchange rate do have a mixed effect on cotton export performance over the period. Moreover, our results offer some important policy implications for the stakeholders including the farmers, exporters, and government to enhance Agri-product competitiveness.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 100521"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141391964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"It's a match! Linking foreign counterparts in Italian customs data to their balance sheets","authors":"Marta Crispino, Francesco Paolo Conteduca","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100511","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100511","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper describes the methodology underlying the matching between extra-EU counterparts in the Italian Customs and Monopolies Agency data with firms in the Bureau van Dijk Orbis database. Through different validation exercises, we show that the matches stemming from our proposed procedure are largely correct regarding both records and transaction values. The resulting corresponding tables can serve as a useful tool to shed light on the features of the counterparts of Italian firms active in international trade.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 100511"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141131260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Internationalization and financial constraints: Opportunities, obstacles, and strategies","authors":"G. Falavigna , V. Giannini , R. Ippoliti","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100510","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100510","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study delves into the relationship between financial constraints and internationalization, investigating the role and extent of variability in access to the capital market in shaping internationalization strategic choices. In detail, focusing on the Italian manufacturing industry between 2013 and 2019, we examine this relation disentangling the effect between export and import dynamics. Initially, we run various OLS regression models to investigate the profile of exporting/importing firms, providing a preliminary picture of the internationalization process of the Italian manufacturing industry. Then, we run several GMM regression models to highlight these dynamics over time and to collect robust evidence for our hypotheses. According to the results, we observe that firms under high financial constraints have the lowest intensity of import and export flows (i), firms under moderate financial constraints have the highest intensity of export flows (ii), and firms under low financial constraints have the highest intensity of import flows (iii). An interpretation of these results concerns the heterogeneity of business-to-business payment dynamics across the EU global value chain, with the Italian market characterized by the longest delay. Hence, internationalization through export flows represents an opportunity for those companies with the most aggressive business strategies, quickly raising their internal liquidity, and complementing local financial debts with international trade credits. On the other hand, only firms with no restrictions to the capital market can afford prompt payments of foreign suppliers, easily collecting the necessary liquidity to support import flows.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 100510"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2110701724000337/pdfft?md5=ea0a8ab56b261042d4b1b8944acf883e&pid=1-s2.0-S2110701724000337-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141090697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Isaac K. Ofori , Andreas Freytag , Simplice A. Asongu
{"title":"Economic globalisation and Africa's quest for greener and more inclusive growth: The missing link","authors":"Isaac K. Ofori , Andreas Freytag , Simplice A. Asongu","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100509","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100509","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examines the contingency and threshold effects of economic freedom in the economic globalisation (EG) and inclusive green growth (IGG) relationship. To this end, we apply the fixed-effects generalized method of moments with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors estimator to macro data for the period 2008–2020 for 22 selected African countries. The following findings are established. First, we find that economic freedom reduces the negative effect of EG on IGG. Second, when we disaggregate EG into financial and trade globalisation, we show that the moderating effect of economic freedom on the former is rather striking. Third, our threshold analysis suggests that by improving Africa's unfree economic architecture to 60% (moderately free), the IGG-deteriorating marginal effects of EG are significantly mitigated (but not nullified). We conclude that unless an effort is made to improve economic freedom in Africa, the envisaged IGG gains of economic globalisation might prove elusive.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 100509"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2110701724000325/pdfft?md5=5a2da75095081700dc08df636a79e0a9&pid=1-s2.0-S2110701724000325-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141031942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Remittances and government expenditures on human capital in developing countries","authors":"Kevin Williams","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100508","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100508","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper investigates the effect that remittances have on government expenditures on human capital within a large panel of developing countries. Remittances reduce government expenditures on education by 0.23–0.84 percentage points for every 10 percentage point increase in remittances. Remittances, by contrast, increase government expenditures on health by 0.99–1.83 percentage points for every 10 percentage point increase in remittances. These findings indicate that remittances induce reallocation of government expenditures from education to health. Democratic political institutions shape the relationship between remittances and government expenditures on human capital. I present additional evidence that government expenditures on education respond differentially to remittances in Small Island Developing States, a group of countries with unique characteristics that make them vulnerable to adverse economic and environmental shocks.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 100508"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141054104","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The effects of foreign investor composition on Colombia's sovereign debt flows","authors":"Fredy Gamboa-Estrada , Andres Sanchez-Jabba","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100507","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100507","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Assessing the composition of sovereign debt holders is important because investors' behavior varies according to distinctive components, including shareholders' preferences, regulatory constraints, and profitability mandates. To study this issue, we examine the determinants of offshore investments of mutual funds and pension funds, which concentrate Colombia's outstanding sovereign debt. Our results indicate that mutual funds exhibit considerable sensitivity to shocks in global factors, such as the Federal Funds Rate, sovereign risk, and the composition of financial indices. This contrasts with findings among pension funds, for which we detected a lower sensitivity to these factors, underlining the differences in foreign investor behavior that can impact sovereign debt flows within emerging markets.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 100507"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141067751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pierluigi Montalbano , Augusto Cerqua , Zhansaya Temerbulatova
{"title":"A decade of Eurasian integration: An ex-post non-parametric assessment of the Eurasian economic union","authors":"Pierluigi Montalbano , Augusto Cerqua , Zhansaya Temerbulatova","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100506","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100506","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper provides a sound <em>ex-post</em> evaluation of the impact of the Eurasian integration on member countries’ bilateral trade after a decade of implementation. We overcome the main limitations of current empirical analyses on the effects of trade agreements, namely the aggregation of tariff and non-tariff barriers and the likely self-selection bias, by applying a non-parametric method specifically designed to fully exploit time-series cross-sectional data. We thus compare the trade flows of the member countries in the Eurasian agreement with the exporter-importer pairs located in the Eurasian continent, which are most similar in terms of pre-treatment trends and features. Our results confirm the previous literature about the lack of a significant impact of the Eurasian customs union but find more positive net effects of the more recent integration steps. Our results ask for additional efforts to complete the Eurasian integration and let its member countries fully benefit from its hoped-for long-term effects.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 100506"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2110701724000295/pdfft?md5=cfe7c889dd4493643067d1e4cd7ab6b9&pid=1-s2.0-S2110701724000295-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140950235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"(Mis)Alignment between observed and expected monetary policy: The case of Brazil","authors":"Jose Angelo Divino , Carlos Haraguchi","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100505","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100505","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The economic agents’ perception of the monetary policy might not coincide with the central bank conduct. We investigate this issue by using both actual and expected data identified by professional forecasters for Brazil, an emerging economy that has long adopted the inflation-targeting regime. We estimate observed, expected, and forward-looking interest rate rules, apply Full-Information Rational Expectations (FIRE) tests, assess restrictions implied by models of information rigidity, and perform several robustness checks. The estimated policy rules respond to inflation deviations and output gap according to theoretical grounds. Professional forecasters, however, do not believe in aggressiveness to fight inflation in longer forecasting horizons, while FIRE tests unveil information rigidity in the short run. There is a misalignment between the Central Bank practice and the private agents’ perception of the monetary policy in the long but not in the short run, suggesting unanchored long-term inflation expectations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 100505"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140807274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Determinants of PTA design: Insights from machine learning","authors":"Stepan Gordeev , Sandro Steinbach","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100504","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100504","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) have emerged as the dominant form of international trade governance. Provisions included in PTAs are increasingly numerous, broad in their purview, deep in their scope, and varied between agreements. We study the economic, political, and geographic determinants of PTA design differences. For each of the hundreds of classified PTA provisions, we consider 287 country-pair characteristics as potential determinants, covering many individual mechanisms the literature has studied. We employ random forests, a supervised machine learning technique, to handle this high dimensionality and complexity. We use a robust variable importance measure to identify the most critical determinants of the inclusion of each PTA provision. Contagion due to competition for export markets, geographic proximity, and governance quality emerge as essential determinants of PTA design. These results motivate future exploration of individual mechanisms our exercise points to.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 100504"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140765803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Extreme downside risk connectedness and portfolio hedging among the G10 currencies","authors":"Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah , Mariem Brahim , Jean-Etienne Carlotti , Aviral Kumar Tiwari , Walid Mensi","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100503","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100503","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates the frequency connectedness among foreign exchange markets of G10 countries, focusing on tail risk and its implications for portfolio management. To do so, we use a novel framework that combines the Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk (CAViaR) model with the novel time-varying frequency and quantile connectedness method developed by Chatziantoniou et al. (2022) based on Baruník and Křehlík (2018) and Ando et al. (2018) approach. A key value of this paper to the literature is the provision of fresh empirical evidence on the extreme downside linkages among the markets examined. From the average connectedness measures, the top shock transmitters within the network were EUR, NOK, AUD, SEK, and NZD, while the main shock receivers emerged to be JPY and CHF, followed by CAD and GBP. We note that events in the major funding markets (the Eurozone, Japan) have a higher impact on the participants in these same markets than in relatively small markets (New Zealand, Norway). From the dynamic connectedness results, the magnitude of connectedness for the entire sample period increased during the COVID-19 era, compared to the magnitude before the COVID-19 outbreak. The cumulative spillover also reveals that USDNOK is the vastest net transmitter of spillovers to other markets, including SEK, CHF, and AUD. However, the EUR is the largest net beneficiary followed by JPY and CAD. Findings from the time-varying extreme downside analysis suggest that throughout the period, SEK and NOK are the other currencies' strongest and most frequent net spillover shock emitters for the short-, medium-, and long-term dynamics. Currency portfolio implications are discussed.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 100503"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140643631","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}