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Fuel price surges and rising inflation expectations in the Euro Area 欧元区燃料价格飙升，通胀预期上升
International Economics Pub Date : 2024-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100576
Hugo Morão
{"title":"Fuel price surges and rising inflation expectations in the Euro Area","authors":"Hugo Morão","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100576","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100576","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between fuel price fluctuations and inflation expectations in the Euro Area from 2005 to 2022, employing a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model to analyze the impact of these price changes on key macroeconomic variables. Focusing on the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, this research reveals that fuel price variations significantly influence both short-term and long-term inflation expectations, with the most pronounced effects observed during the initial month of the conflict. However, after March 2022, the impact of fuel price fluctuations on durable and non-durable goods prices diminishes in intensity. These fuel price changes cease to be the primary driver of inflation in the subsequent months, suggesting other factors gain prominence in influencing price levels across the Euro Area. The findings demonstrate that fuel price changes also have economic implications for Eurosystem financial dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 100576"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143147759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Central bank digital currency and cryptocurrency in emerging markets 新兴市场的央行数字货币和加密货币
International Economics Pub Date : 2024-12-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100577
Anh H. Le
{"title":"Central bank digital currency and cryptocurrency in emerging markets","authors":"Anh H. Le","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100577","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100577","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, I introduce a New Keynesian - Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NK-DSGE) model to examine the implications of CBDCs and cryptocurrency in an open economy for emerging markets. In our model, cryptocurrency is implemented as a form of deposit in banks where bankers can also receive deposits from abroad. Lastly, CBDCs are introduced as a payment and saving instrument. I find that cryptocurrency has a crucial role in banking sectors and a significant effect on the dynamic of foreign debt which is highly important for emerging markets. Moreover, I uncover that CBDCs can generate welfare gains but the gain varies with their designs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 100577"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143147758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade-in-task and regional income inequalities 任务交换和地区收入不平等
International Economics Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100575
Roberta Capello, Damares Lopes Afonso, Giovanni Perucca
{"title":"Trade-in-task and regional income inequalities","authors":"Roberta Capello,&nbsp;Damares Lopes Afonso,&nbsp;Giovanni Perucca","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100575","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100575","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Adjustment mechanisms that restore equilibrium in international trade do not work at subnational level. For this reason, regions do not compete on the basis of comparative advantages. In this paper such a conceptual perspective is inserted in the Grossman and Rossi-Hansberg model (2008) to highlight the heterogeneous income distribution of the effects of trade-in-task among regions within a country. Conceptually extended also to receiving countries, the theoretical model is empirically verified for both offshoring and receiving European economies. Our results show that in offshoring countries increasing trade-in-task triggers intra-country regional income inequalities, thus promoting regional income divergence. Such result suggests the importance of redistributive regional policies. The opposite holds for receiving countries, where further trade integration is likely to boost processes of intra-country regional income convergence, suggesting that no normative actions mitigating inequality increases are required.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 100575"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143147808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What role for aid for trade in (deep) PTA relations? Empirical evidence from gravity model estimations 在（深度）PTA关系中，贸易援助扮演什么角色？来自重力模型估计的经验证据
International Economics Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100574
Frederik Stender, Tim Vogel
{"title":"What role for aid for trade in (deep) PTA relations? Empirical evidence from gravity model estimations","authors":"Frederik Stender,&nbsp;Tim Vogel","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100574","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100574","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While preferential trade agreements (PTAs) cover an increasing range of policy areas, little is known about the implications of this new emphasis on interactions with other trade-related policies. We approach this gap by examining the effectiveness of bilateral aid for trade (AfT) in promoting exports for recipient countries within deep North–South PTA relations. Using a structural gravity model for bilateral panel data of 29 OECD DAC countries and 144 developing countries from 2002 to 2015, we find that the marginal effect of AfT decreases as PTA policy areas expand. Further investigation of the underlying mechanisms suggests that the observed trade-off between PTA depth and AfT effectiveness may be due to compliance with the non-tariff provisions contained in deep PTAs. We find two lines of reasoning plausible. First, compliance efforts appear to consume large fractions of AfT, reducing its availability for potentially more effective projects. Second, since we also observe heterogeneity in interactions across donors, AfT provided by high-income PTA partners could well be used to redirect exports to third countries with comparatively fewer bilateral obligations. Provided that a core focus of AfT remains on strengthening international trade relations, including between donors and recipients, donor countries should therefore carefully weigh compliance costs to developing countries against the non-trade benefits of common deep PTAs, and accurately identify financial and technical assistance needs with their PTA partners.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 100574"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143148731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tail risk contagion and connectedness between crude oil, natural gas, heating oil, precious metals, and international stock markets 原油、天然气、取暖油、贵金属和国际股票市场之间的尾部风险传染和连通性
International Economics Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100570
Walid Mensi , Remzi Gök , Eray Gemici , Sang Hoon Kang
{"title":"Tail risk contagion and connectedness between crude oil, natural gas, heating oil, precious metals, and international stock markets","authors":"Walid Mensi ,&nbsp;Remzi Gök ,&nbsp;Eray Gemici ,&nbsp;Sang Hoon Kang","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100570","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100570","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We apply the qunatile vector autoregression (QVAR) connectedness and frequency causality methods to investigate tail risk contagion, quantile dependency, and causality linkages among the spot prices of equity, precious metals, and energy commodity markets between 2002 and 2024. Our findings indicate that the average amount of unexpected losses for stock markets is lower than that for other markets. Furthermore, our analysis of tail risk spillovers shows that downside risks are primarily driven by the contributions of others, with the most significant impact occurring when the tail risk is at its lowest. The total downside risks associated with connectedness are greater for lower quantiles and stock markets typically serve as the primary transmitters of shocks across all quantiles. During financial crises, heterogeneous and event-dependent risk spillovers strengthen, but not during pandemics or geopolitical incidents.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 100570"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143147807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Macroeconomic responses to financial stress shocks: Evidence from the US and the Eurozone 宏观经济对金融压力冲击的反应：来自美国和欧元区的证据
International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100573
Nikolaos Giannellis, Maria-Anna Tzanaki
{"title":"Macroeconomic responses to financial stress shocks: Evidence from the US and the Eurozone","authors":"Nikolaos Giannellis,&nbsp;Maria-Anna Tzanaki","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100573","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100573","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of an unexpected financial stress shock in the United States and the Eurozone, focusing mainly on the effect on unemployment and the response of monetary policy. First, we estimate Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) based on a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model with short-run restrictions according to economic theory. Next, we perform panel data analysis shedding light on the factors that affect unemployment in the two regions. Our findings indicate a significant impact of financial stress shocks on the macroeconomic environment, but with different policy responses from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). The impact of higher financial stress on economic activity and employment is negative in both regions, but the duration of the impact on unemployment is shorter in the US, suggesting a quicker recovery in the US labor market compared to the Eurozone. The faster recovery of the US labor market is primarily due to the superior institutional and regulatory performance in the US. These findings provide policymakers with valuable lessons about the importance of continuous monitoring and quick action to mitigate the negative effects of financial instability on economic activity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 100573"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143148729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effects of physical and transition climate risk on stock markets: Some multi-Country evidence 物理和转型气候风险对股票市场的影响：一些多国证据
International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100571
Marina Albanese , Guglielmo Maria Caporale , Ida Colella , Nicola Spagnolo
{"title":"The effects of physical and transition climate risk on stock markets: Some multi-Country evidence","authors":"Marina Albanese ,&nbsp;Guglielmo Maria Caporale ,&nbsp;Ida Colella ,&nbsp;Nicola Spagnolo","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100571","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100571","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of transition and physical climate risk on stock markets using, for the first time in this context, the annual Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) calculated by Germanwatch as well as its components (in addition to a wide range of other indices) for 48 countries from 2007 to 2023. Specifically, a balanced panel VAR model is estimated to obtain impulse responses for the whole set of countries considered as well as for a subset including the EU-28 only; other methods such as Forecast Error Variance Decomposition and Local Projections (Jordà, 2005; 2023) are then applied for robustness checks. The results suggest a positive impact of transition risk on stock returns and a negative one of physical risk, especially in the short term. Further, while physical risk appears to have an immediate impact, transition risk is shown to affect stock markets also over a longer time horizon. Finally, national climate policies seem to be more effective when implemented within a supranational framework as in the case of the EU-28.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 100571"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143148730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Macroeconomic effects of climate change: Evidence from Canadian provinces 气候变化的宏观经济影响：来自加拿大各省的证据
International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100572
Lucy Q. Liu , Dan Pan , Mehdi Raissi
{"title":"Macroeconomic effects of climate change: Evidence from Canadian provinces","authors":"Lucy Q. Liu ,&nbsp;Dan Pan ,&nbsp;Mehdi Raissi","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100572","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100572","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change across ten Canadian provinces between 1961 and 2017. Following Kahn et al. (2021a), our econometric strategy links deviations of temperature and precipitation (weather) from their multi-decade historical rolling averages (climate) to various province-specific economic performance indicators at the aggregate and sectoral levels. We show that climate change (proxied by a series of weather shocks) has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various Canadian provinces and economic sectors. Adaptation reduces the income losses but cannot offset them entirely. Moreover, in contrast to most cross-country results, our within-country estimates suggest asymmetrical growth effects from precipitation and temperature anomalies. Specifically, persistently higher-than-normal precipitation is associated with lower long-term GDP growth, whereas the effect of below-than-normal precipitation is not statistically significant. As regards temperature, while extended periods of cold spells (temperature persistently below historical norms) is detrimental to growth (though less likely in the future), Canada is not benefiting from a warmer climate as often argued in the literature.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 100572"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143147391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do ICTs promote the renewable energy consumption? The moderating effects of economic growth and structural transformation in Africa 信息和传播技术是否促进了可再生能源消费？非洲经济增长和结构转型的调节作用
International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100563
Ariel Herbert Fambeu , Patricia Tchawa Yomi
{"title":"Do ICTs promote the renewable energy consumption? The moderating effects of economic growth and structural transformation in Africa","authors":"Ariel Herbert Fambeu ,&nbsp;Patricia Tchawa Yomi","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100563","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100563","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In light of the challenges posed by depleting energy resources and environmental degradation, the effective use of renewable energy is becoming ever more crucial. This study mainly investigates the role of ICT as a driver of renewable energy consumption in Africa. Furthermore, the study aims to emphasize the moderating effects of economic growth and structural transformation. To achieve this, the study employs the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator on a panel of 45 African countries over the period 2000–2019. The findings show that internet and ICT service export promotes the use of renewable energy consumption, suggesting that the African nations examined have realized improvements in their energy mix as a result of ICT development. The moderating effects reveal that upgrading the energy consumption structure affected by digitalization is more significant in countries with high economic growth and more service-oriented. Our findings lead to a discussion of policy implications in relation to sustainable development goals (SDG).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 100563"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142661107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of the belt and road initiative on international consumption risk sharing: A difference-in-differences analysis 一带一路 "倡议对国际消费风险分担的影响：差异分析
International Economics Pub Date : 2024-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100562
Cheng Zhou
{"title":"The impact of the belt and road initiative on international consumption risk sharing: A difference-in-differences analysis","authors":"Cheng Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100562","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100562","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on consumption risk sharing among participating countries. Utilizing a difference-in-differences model within the context of international consumption risk sharing, we analyze data from 2002 to 2022 for 64 BRI countries. Our empirical findings indicate a significant reduction in consumption risk sharing attributable to the BRI. Further subgroup analysis reveals that the BRI hinders consumption risk sharing particularly among countries along the Land Silk Road, especially those bordering China. Key contributing factors include increased tariffs, heightened foreign investment, rising employment rates, increased resident income, and a diversified range of consumer products. These factors exacerbate the BRI's adverse effects on consumption risk sharing in comparison to countries with lower levels of these variables. Our findings suggest that the Initiative has an uneven impact on the mechanisms affecting countries along its route.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 100562"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142701434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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