International Economics最新文献

How much debt is too much? Debt-growth dynamics in commodity-dependent and non-commodity-dependent developing economies

International Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100597

Sarah J. Carrington , Leon Padilla , Ronny Oswaldo Herrera Pozo

{"title":"How much debt is too much? Debt-growth dynamics in commodity-dependent and non-commodity-dependent developing economies","authors":"Sarah J. Carrington , Leon Padilla , Ronny Oswaldo Herrera Pozo","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100597","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100597","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the debt-growth dynamics of commodity-exporting and non-commodity-exporting developing countries, examining whether public debt thresholds differ between these groups. We applied the dynamic panel data threshold effects model with endogenous regressors including both <em>endogenous</em> and <em>exogenous</em> instruments proposed by Kremer et al. (2013) and expanded by Seo and Shin (2016) and Seo et al. (2019). Using panel data for 46 countries from 1981 to 2019, the analysis identifies distinct debt thresholds for the two groups, revealing significant negative effects of debt on growth beyond 62.14% of GDP for commodity exporters over the period 1981–2000, and beyond 53.83% during 2001–2019. For non-exporters, a debt threshold has emerged only over recent decades and is identified at 67.96% of GDP, with low-to-moderate debt levels <em>positively</em> associated with growth. The results highlight the role of institutions, human and physical capital investment, and trade openness in mitigating the growth drag effects of debt, particularly concerning commodity exporters. These findings deepen our understanding of debt sustainability and growth in developing economies, emphasizing the unique vulnerabilities of resource-dependent countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 100597"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143834490","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Floating exchange rate efficiency: Grouping patterns and pandemic impacts

International Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100591

Teresa Corzo , Karin Martin-Bujack , Jose Portela , Alejandro Rodriguez-Gallego

{"title":"Floating exchange rate efficiency: Grouping patterns and pandemic impacts","authors":"Teresa Corzo , Karin Martin-Bujack , Jose Portela , Alejandro Rodriguez-Gallego","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100591","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100591","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the efficiency of global floating exchange rates spanning 19 years from 2004 to 2022. We examine the presence of long memory in a sample of twenty-five floating exchange rates against the US Dollar, representing 63 % of 2022 global GDP. To that end, we rely on rolling window estimates of the Hurst coefficient using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) and Generalized Hurst Exponent (GHE) methodologies focusing on the impact of the COVID crisis. Repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic on efficiency clearly emerge. Complementing previous partial studies, we obtain patterns that group currencies according to their pandemic efficiency reaction, presenting a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of floating exchange rates. The broad sample of currencies analyzed allows the identification of two distinct groups of currencies, revealing a temporary shift in FX markets away from efficiency, with one group exhibiting prolonged deviations. Given the importance of the forex market, our empirical findings hold substantial implications for the broader finance community.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 100591"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143724418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Exploring the impact of economic, climate, and energy policy uncertainty on the Environmental Kuznets Curve: International evidence

International Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100592

Cristian Barra , Pasquale Marcello Falcone , Patrizio Giganti

{"title":"Exploring the impact of economic, climate, and energy policy uncertainty on the Environmental Kuznets Curve: International evidence","authors":"Cristian Barra , Pasquale Marcello Falcone , Patrizio Giganti","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100592","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100592","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The academic relevance of environmental pollution and its relationship with economic growth is an acclaimed research field. However, the implications of linking these variables with economic, climate, and energy policies represent the new frontier of the debate. Among the popular theories regarding the nexus between environmental pollution and economic growth, the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) is highly debated. Additionally, the economic policy implications of uncertainty play a significant role. This work aims to investigate the existence of the EKC and the impact of some uncertainty indexes on it. The investigation includes analyzing both the direct impact of newly observed variables on pollution and the moderating effect of uncertainty indexes on the primary nexus. Specifically, three types of uncertainty are examined: economic policy, climate policy, and energy-related policy. The findings reflect the EKC's persistence and the relevance of moderating effects, mainly depending on the country's categorization. This aspect, along with sample heterogeneity and factors such as the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol Agreement, is examined in the robustness section.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 100592"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143684591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Food, harvesting and interest rate nexus: Quantile investigation about dependencies and spillover

International Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100593

Bikramaditya Ghosh , Mariya Gubareva , Anandita Ghosh , Dimitrios Papadas , Xuan Vinh Vo

{"title":"Food, harvesting and interest rate nexus: Quantile investigation about dependencies and spillover","authors":"Bikramaditya Ghosh , Mariya Gubareva , Anandita Ghosh , Dimitrios Papadas , Xuan Vinh Vo","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100593","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100593","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The global food security issue intensifies during periods of stress. To delve deeper into this matter, our study examines dependencies and spillovers between food, harvesting, and interest rates using data from 2000 to 2023. Fed rate, meat, harvest, and sugar exhibit net shock receiver characteristics across both lower and upper extreme quantiles (Q<sub>0.1</sub> & Q<sub>0.9</sub>). Conversely, cereals, dairy, and vegetable oils act as a net emitter across both lower and upper extreme quantiles (Q<sub>0.1</sub> & Q<sub>0.9</sub>). Furthermore, cereals and vegetable oils are reciprocators across all quantiles. Our findings reveal that connectedness is notably weaker at Q<sub>0.5</sub> indicating that median or mean-based connectedness metrics may disguise strong connectedness patterns, inherent to the extremes. The paper provides timely insights for investors and portfolio managers seeking optimal resources allocation during periods of high interest rates. It offers empirical evidence of time and quantile asymmetry in spillovers between food, harvesting, and interest rates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 100593"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143746520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Gauging the level of dynamic between climate policy and foreign aid in Vietnam

International Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100589

Le Thanh Ha

{"title":"Gauging the level of dynamic between climate policy and foreign aid in Vietnam","authors":"Le Thanh Ha","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100589","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100589","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Increasing foreign aid is a key strategy to assist developing nations in implementing financial policies to address the climate problem. Well-constructed aid programs can encourage the adoption of climate policies, but prospective advantages are not always realized, especially in the case of developing countries. Therefore, it is critical to conduct a more comprehensive study on the impact of climate aid on recipient countries' climate policy. We use a model-free connectedness approach to investigate interlinkages between climate policy and foreign aid, with a consideration of other variables like GDP and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in Vietnam from 2000 to 2021. Our results highlight a two-way relationship between foreign aid and climate policy. The net total connectedness shows that climate policy is a main net recipient of shock waves, with the exception of the 2008–2010 and 2020–2021 periods. Foreign aid was the main net receiver of spillover shocks from 2010 to 2019. The direction of the net pairwise connectivity shows that the domination of foreign aid with climate policy peaked in 2018. The development process of climate policy in Vietnam faces many difficulties when foreign aid decreases. This paper's findings help policymakers and governments set up the framework for promoting the use of foreign aid to enhance the efficiency of climate policy to mitigate environmental degradation in Vietnam.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 100589"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143591438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The impact of the U.S. Covid-19 response on remittance flows to emerging markets and developing economies

International Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100580

Cynthia Bansak , Helena Glebocki , Nicole B. Simpson

{"title":"The impact of the U.S. Covid-19 response on remittance flows to emerging markets and developing economies","authors":"Cynthia Bansak , Helena Glebocki , Nicole B. Simpson","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100580","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100580","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Nearly 25 percent of total worldwide remittances each year originate in the United States. During the Covid-19 pandemic, worldwide remittances fell precipitously in the first half of 2020, and then recovered in the second half. Thus, there has been a tremendous amount of resiliency in aggregate remittance flows since the onset of the pandemic, though country-specific experiences have varied. In this paper, we study the response of remittance flows to U.S.-specific shocks during the pandemic, such as changes in U.S. deaths, U.S. unemployment in migrant-intensive industries, U.S. unemployment insurance and personal current transfer receipts. Using both panel vector autoregressive (panel VAR) and global vector autoregressive (global VAR) models, along with monthly data from 2018 to 2021, we find that remittance flows into emerging markets decline sharply in response to U.S. unemployment shocks across industries and to shocks in U.S. deaths. However, flows recover quickly after one to two months. Due to the large immigrant presence and proximity to the United States, the most sizable remittance response is detected in Latin America. The response to U.S. fiscal stimulus is net positive. Combining both models provides insights on the direct effect of U.S. shocks on remittance flows with the panel VAR, as well as the impact within the context of a global system of countries and global factors that may adversely affect all countries in the system with the global VAR, as seen during Covid-19. We contribute to the literature by studying the macroeconomic impact of the U.S. reaction to the pandemic for countries that are large recipients of remittances originating from the United States.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 100580"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143535342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do natural disasters translate into trade disasters?

International Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100581

Swati Saini , Yashobanta Parida

{"title":"Do natural disasters translate into trade disasters?","authors":"Swati Saini , Yashobanta Parida","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100581","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100581","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper empirically investigates the relationship between natural disasters and agricultural trade for a sample of 187 countries during the period of 1991–2019. To this end, we estimate a theory-grounded gravity equation using Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator, controlling for multilateral resistance terms by including (i) both country-pair fixed effects and country-year fixed effects, and (ii) intra-national (domestic) trade flows in addition to international trade flows. Our findings suggest that different types of natural disasters have varied effects on international trade compared to domestic trade in the agriculture sector. Specifically, we observe that droughts, landslides, and insect infestations disrupt trade flows (relative to domestic ones) in most agricultural product categories while floods and storms exert a consistently positive influence on trade flows across product groups. However, the intensity of a disaster plays a crucial role in determining its impact. The positive effects of floods and storms diminish when distinguishing between severe and moderate disasters. For instance, severe floods in developing countries reduce international trade (relative to domestic trade) across nearly all product categories. Similarly, moderate storms in developing countries have a significantly negative impact on the majority of product groups. Natural disasters have a significantly more pronounced effect on international trade (compared to domestic trade) in developing countries than in developed ones, likely due to developed nations' superior mitigation capacities and better storage infrastructure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 100581"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143704105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Measuring the contemporal and lead connectedness level between investor sentiment and exchange rate dynamics in Vietnam: Novel findings from TVP-VAR-SV technique

International Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100578

Le Thanh Ha

{"title":"Measuring the contemporal and lead connectedness level between investor sentiment and exchange rate dynamics in Vietnam: Novel findings from TVP-VAR-SV technique","authors":"Le Thanh Ha","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100578","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100578","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The literature has underscored the significance of investor sentiment in understanding excess stock returns and volatility. However, scholars have paid less attention to measuring investor sentiment related to stock markets and analyzing its impacts on the macroeconomy in Vietnam. Our article employs a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) to examine the connectedness of three key variables from January 1, 2017, to November 25, 2023, and to analyze the relationship between investor sentiment and the exchange rate. Following a positive shock in investment sentiment, the exchange rates of USD/VND and GBP/VND exhibited similar responses, showing a negative movement in the 1-period ahead before turning positive in the 3-period ahead. Conversely, EUR/VND and JPY/VND displayed positive movements both in the 1-period and 3-period ahead in response to the shock. Meanwhile, CNY/VND, reacted negatively overall to a positive shock in investment sentiment was negative. Our results have important policy implications for both investors and policymakers. The study also highlights how spillover effects among various indicators and their interconnections can be leveraged to stabilize financial and macroeconomic markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 100578"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143379448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An investigation of monetary autonomy under corner solution and middle ground: A panel data analysis

International Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100579

Fang Dong , William Marquis

{"title":"An investigation of monetary autonomy under corner solution and middle ground: A panel data analysis","authors":"Fang Dong , William Marquis","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100579","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100579","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The objective of this study is to examine the existence of monetary autonomy within the framework of the macroeconomic trilemma hypothesis. We estimate panel data models with fixed effects, random effects, and fixed effects with cross-sectional dependence to assess monetary autonomy in 36 countries from January 1991 to December 2023. The dependent variable captures changes in policy interest rates in these peripheral countries, while the independent variables include changes in the U.S. policy interest rate, nominal exchange rate regimes (flexible vs fixed or float, soft peg, and peg), capital mobility regimes (capital controls vs free capital mobility or closed, mid-open, and open), foreign exchange reserves relative to nominal GDP, and indicators for currency/financial crises and Covid-19, among others. Using monthly data from various sources, we find no evidence of monetary autonomy under a fixed exchange rate with free capital mobility in both the “corner solution” and “middle ground” models, aligning with the macroeconomic trilemma hypothesis. However, we do find evidence of monetary autonomy in the middle ground case (soft peg with mid-open capital market) and that further evidence that foreign exchange reserves can mitigate the trilemma hypothesis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 100579"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143352340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fuel price surges and rising inflation expectations in the Euro Area

International Economics Pub Date : 2024-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100576

Hugo Morão

引用次数: 0