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Global production scenarios: Actual unbundling, potential rebundling and geoeconomic rewiring across value chains 全球生产情景:跨价值链的实际拆分、潜在重新捆绑和地缘经济重新布线
International Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100616
Raffaele Giammetti , Ariel L. Wirkierman
{"title":"Global production scenarios: Actual unbundling, potential rebundling and geoeconomic rewiring across value chains","authors":"Raffaele Giammetti ,&nbsp;Ariel L. Wirkierman","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100616","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100616","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze the cross-country distributional effects of global production reconfiguration by means of two multisectoral accounting exercises. First, we simulate counterfactuals that decouple input structures from final demand composition, showing that it is not trade integration per se that determines value-added outcomes, but the fit between production architectures and final demand geography. Second, we model three geoeconomic fragmentation scenarios – involving unilateral provocation and retaliatory decoupling – based on bloc-specific trade restrictions among US-led, China-led and Non-Aligned country blocs. Results reveal asymmetric impacts: large, globally embedded economies face significant losses, while gains concentrate in geoeconomically aligned or flexibly positioned economies. Sectoral outcomes vary with value-chain positioning. The paper provides a global multisectoral accounting perspective to analyses of supply chain disruptions, emphasizing that the same inter-country input trade interdependence that once brought efficiency gains may now act as a constraint in shaping resilience under trade realignment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 100616"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144632281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Upfront efforts for upcoming benefits? ISO 9001:2015 certification and firms’ performance in 33 countries 为即将到来的利益而做的前期努力?ISO 9001:2015认证和公司在33个国家的表现
International Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100620
Didier Wayoro, Wilfried Nonguierma, Michelle Parkouda
{"title":"Upfront efforts for upcoming benefits? ISO 9001:2015 certification and firms’ performance in 33 countries","authors":"Didier Wayoro,&nbsp;Wilfried Nonguierma,&nbsp;Michelle Parkouda","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100620","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100620","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper uses firm-level data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES) for the years 2013 and 2019 conducted in 33 countries to investigate the effect of certification to an international standard on firms' performance. Unlike past studies that lumped together all international certificates a firm possesses before assessing its performance, we focus on the release of ISO 9001:2015 standard as a quasi-experiment and apply a kernel propensity score matching difference-in-difference method to panel data. We find that certification to ISO 9001:2015 increases firms’ total sales by 48.3 %. This effect is higher than the one obtained from previous studies that combined all international certificates (45.8 %). Results also show that small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs), as well as firms in the manufacturing sector appear to benefit more from international certification. The study further suggests that cost reduction, direct international exports, foreign participation, and access to credit are key potential drivers of the positive effect of ISO 9001:2015 certification on total sales.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 100620"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144557425","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Foreign direct investment, economic growth, governance quality and the informal economy: Empirical insights from an emerging economy 外国直接投资、经济增长、治理质量与非正规经济:来自新兴经济体的实证见解
International Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100619
Cong Minh Huynh , Nam Hoai Tran
{"title":"Foreign direct investment, economic growth, governance quality and the informal economy: Empirical insights from an emerging economy","authors":"Cong Minh Huynh ,&nbsp;Nam Hoai Tran","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100619","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100619","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper empirically investigates how foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows affect the informal economy by using a panel data set of 63 provinces in Vietnam from 2006 to 2021. The results show that: i) FDI inflows reduce the informal economy through the channels of boosting economic growth and improving local governance quality; ii) the formal economy and the informal economy are substitutes; iii) local governance quality reduces informal activities. Additionally, poverty and unemployment emerge as the primary forces driving Vietnam's informal economic activities, while strategic fiscal policy and urbanization can effectively shrink the informal sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 100619"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144549606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does tax incentive improve corporate resilience?A quasi-natural experiment based on value-added tax retained rebate policy 税收激励能提高企业的抗风险能力吗?基于增值税留存退税政策的准自然实验
International Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100617
Youliang Jin, Xuan Feng, Huixiang Zeng
{"title":"Does tax incentive improve corporate resilience?A quasi-natural experiment based on value-added tax retained rebate policy","authors":"Youliang Jin,&nbsp;Xuan Feng,&nbsp;Huixiang Zeng","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100617","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100617","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The value-added taxes (VAT) retained rebate policy, as an important fiscal initiative to stimulate corporations, has provided new avenues for enterprises to improve their resilience. Using China's VAT retained rebate policy enacted in 2018 as an exogenous shock, this paper examines its impact on corporate resilience using the Difference-In-Differences (DID) model based on a sample of A-share listed companies. The results show that this policy significantly enhances corporate resilience. Further research reveals that the value-added tax (VAT) credit refund policy is particularly more effective when companies have a high likelihood of accumulating VAT credits, bear heavy tax burdens, operate with low commercial credit levels, possess weak bargaining power with suppliers, and are located in regions with strong tax administration capacity. Moreover, the policy has a sustained positive effect on firms' financial performance. Notably, this paper not only evaluates the microeconomic effects of the VAT retained rebate policy from the perspective of corporate resilience, but also provides decision-making insights for tax incentives aimed at supporting enterprises and promoting their high-quality development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 100617"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144549602","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does financial inclusion increase participation in global value chains? Evidence from African countries 普惠金融能提高全球价值链参与度吗?来自非洲国家的证据
International Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100618
Dieudonné Mignamissi , Simplice A. Asongu , Eric Xaverie Possi Tebeng , Yolande E. Ngoungou
{"title":"Does financial inclusion increase participation in global value chains? Evidence from African countries","authors":"Dieudonné Mignamissi ,&nbsp;Simplice A. Asongu ,&nbsp;Eric Xaverie Possi Tebeng ,&nbsp;Yolande E. Ngoungou","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100618","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100618","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The present paper assesses how financial inclusion promotes the participation of Africa in global value chains (GVC), contingent on financial development and institutional quality. We consider 32 African countries over the period 2004–2018, and rely on fixed effects regressions and the Lewbel (2012) instrumental variable technique. Our findings show that financial inclusion promotes the participation of countries in GVC. Moreover, financial development and institutional quality are mechanisms by which financial inclusion indirectly promotes the participation of corresponding countries in GVC. It follows that financial inclusion has both direct and indirect positive effects on GVC participation. Our results underscore the need for integrated policy frameworks that strengthen inclusive finance, deepen financial sector development, and improve institutional quality to boost African economies’ participation in international production networks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 100618"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144588832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluating the combined effects of inspections and technical assistance on international trade 评价视察和技术援助对国际贸易的综合影响
International Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100613
Linda Fernandez , Monica Das
{"title":"Evaluating the combined effects of inspections and technical assistance on international trade","authors":"Linda Fernandez ,&nbsp;Monica Das","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100613","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100613","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the effects of import inspections and technical assistance on international trade through a dynamic analysis of the timing and impact of importer and exporter efforts to address information asymmetries and biosecurity risks. We employ the Multiple Indicator Solution with panel data of technical assistance, inspections and exports for 30 countries. Results show that both inspections and technical assistance have a positive and significant impact on trade volume, while minimizing biosecurity risks in trade, thereby aligning with goals of the World Trade Organization. The impact of technical assistance on exports depends on the type of assistance and country characteristics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 100613"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144365728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Currency exposure and economic growth: Friend or foe? 货币风险敞口与经济增长:是敌是友?
International Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100612
Hari Venkatesh , Gourishankar S. Hiremath
{"title":"Currency exposure and economic growth: Friend or foe?","authors":"Hari Venkatesh ,&nbsp;Gourishankar S. Hiremath","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100612","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100612","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of currency mismatches on economic growth in advanced and developing economies. We introduce novel indices – broad original sin and new currency mismatch – constructed using a unique dataset on the currency composition of cross-border bank loans and international debt securities. These indices provide a comprehensive measure of currency exposure compared to previous studies. Our empirical findings reveal that currency mismatches significantly hinder economic growth, with depreciation further amplifying this adverse effect. Notably, exchange rate movements negatively impact growth through the financial channel, offsetting potential benefits through the trade channel. The empirical analysis suggests that countries with currency mismatches tend to perform better under fixed exchange rates. Importantly, this study shows that currency exposure is relevant for advanced economies as well, not just developing ones. To mitigate these negative effects, policymakers should consider limiting foreign currency-denominated debt issuance and promoting domestic bond market development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 100612"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144365727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Deep-water ports and international trade: A structural gravity estimation 深水港与国际贸易:结构重力估计
International Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100614
Theresa M. Greaney, Pratistha Gyawali
{"title":"Deep-water ports and international trade: A structural gravity estimation","authors":"Theresa M. Greaney,&nbsp;Pratistha Gyawali","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100614","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100614","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the importance of deep-water ports for international trade using a structural gravity model. To avoid confounding port depth effects with the well-known landlocked country penalty in international trade, we focus our inquiry on non-landlocked countries. Using ports data from year 2000 and trade data from 2000–2019, we find that countries with at least one port capable of hosting a Panamax ship (i.e., port depth of at least 41 ft) trade tremendously more manufactured goods than non-landlocked countries without such ports. Ten additional feet of maximum port depth corresponds with 18.3 to 19.8 percent more international trade in manufactured goods and 19.1 to 22.2 percent more trade in all commodities sectors for a non-landlocked country, while it is unrelated to trade in services. For trade in commodities, having more ports at deeper cutoff depths also corresponds with greater trade volumes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 100614"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144518781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The end of miracle? China's economic growth pattern 奇迹的终结?中国的经济增长方式
International Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100615
Akira Kohsaka
{"title":"The end of miracle? China's economic growth pattern","authors":"Akira Kohsaka","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100615","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100615","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite its recent period of “unprecedentedly” high and sustained economic growth, China has long been expected to face a sudden slowdown sooner or later. This paper examines China's growth pattern over the past three decades as a process of income catching-up similar to that experienced by other East Asian economies. We analyze this within a simple neoclassical framework of economic growth, using an internationally comparable macroeconomic database. We find that China's growth pattern is not unprecedented but rather closely parallels that of its East Asian forerunners. Furthermore, we find that, while China's catching-up has primarily been driven by capital deepening rather than TFP growth, it could be sustained for decades due to the slow diminishing returns to capital.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 100615"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144633281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Regional heterogeneity in the impacts of drought in China 中国干旱影响的区域异质性
International Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100611
Jiana Chen
{"title":"Regional heterogeneity in the impacts of drought in China","authors":"Jiana Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100611","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100611","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Droughts pose a critical global challenge, threatening food security, water resources, and economic stability. In large, ecologically diverse countries like China, understanding how droughts disproportionately affect economies at both national and subnational scales is vital, as regional vulnerabilities can exacerbate broader socioeconomic disruptions. However, previous research has rarely analyzed drought impacts comprehensively at both national and regional levels, limiting the ability to capture the full extent of economic heterogeneities and design effective mitigation strategies. This study examines regional heterogeneities in drought impacts across China, aiming to identify how different regions respond to drought-induced shocks and inform targeted policy interventions. Using a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model with sign restrictions, the analysis reveals that while droughts modestly reduce national output, regional impacts vary significantly. Areas heavily reliant on agriculture, those with diverse vegetation ecosystems, and regions with underdeveloped infrastructure face the most severe economic consequences. Supply-side sectors, particularly agriculture, suffer significant productivity losses, driving sharp increases in national food prices. Accommodation and transportation costs also show prolonged inflationary trends, indicating persistent secondary economic effects. To enhance resilience, this study advocates for region-specific strategies in resource allocation and policy-making. By aligning policies with each region's unique economic vulnerabilities and ecological traits, governments can more effectively mitigate the adverse effects of climate-induced droughts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"183 ","pages":"Article 100611"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144263048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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