International Economics最新文献_第2页

Assessing the effect of uncertainty in policy decisions on the sustainability of the Stability and Growth Pact: A functional analysis approach 评估政策决策中的不确定性对《稳定与增长公约》可持续性的影响：功能分析方法

International Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100668

Bernardo Maggi

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引用次数: 0

Green Banking Resilience: Trade-offs under Shocks 绿色银行弹性：冲击下的权衡

International Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2026.100678

Marcella Lucchetta

引用次数: 0

Connectivity and contagion: How industry networks shape the transmission of shocks in global value chains 连通性与传染：产业网络如何塑造全球价值链冲击的传导

International Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100666

Charlie Joyez

{"title":"Connectivity and contagion: How industry networks shape the transmission of shocks in global value chains","authors":"Charlie Joyez","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100666","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100666","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study how disruptions propagate through global value chains (GVCs) and how network structure conditions their effects. Using Eora country–industry data for 189 countries and 26 industries (1996–2015), shocks are defined by a distribution-based rule; exposure counts disrupted upstream/downstream partners, and redundancy counts non-disrupted pre-existing links. We estimate fixed-effects impact models—where robustness is smaller contemporaneous deterioration conditional on exposure—and a grouped-time complementary log–log hazard—where resilience is faster return to the pre-shock level. Two findings emerge. First, exposure propagates, depressing output, value added, and exports, and slowing recovery. Second, redundancy mitigates these effects, offsetting the impact and raising the recovery hazard. As an illustration, high-technology activities appear less sensitive on impact and recover faster than low-technology ones, an advantage explained by higher redundancy despite deeper connections. These results suggest that strengthening robustness and resilience requires deepening GVC integration through strategic redundant linkages, rather than retreating from openness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"185 ","pages":"Article 100666"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145786742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Economic sustainability and institutional quality in the green energy transition: Evidence from developing economies 绿色能源转型中的经济可持续性和制度质量：来自发展中经济体的证据

International Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100669

Amar Rao , Mariem Aloulou , Vishal Dagar , Ashutosh Yadav

{"title":"Economic sustainability and institutional quality in the green energy transition: Evidence from developing economies","authors":"Amar Rao , Mariem Aloulou , Vishal Dagar , Ashutosh Yadav","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100669","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100669","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines whether renewable energy adoption unconditionally contributes to economic outcomes in developing countries, or whether it can, under certain institutional conditions, impede economic progress. Analyzing panel data from 45 developing countries (2000–2020) using Driscoll–Kraay standard errors, we find a statistically significant negative association between an increasing renewable energy share and both GDP growth and GDP per capita. Crucially, institutional quality plays a pivotal moderating role. While stronger institutions, such as control of corruption and rule of law, mitigate negative impacts on per capita income and employment, they paradoxically appear to exacerbate the negative effect on overall GDP growth, suggesting a more transparent internalization of transition costs in better-governed environments. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate significant heterogeneity across income levels: low-income countries experience positive economic effects from renewable energy adoption, whereas lower-middle-income countries face more pronounced negative impacts. These results challenge the uniformly positive narrative of green growth, underscoring that the energy transition involves significant economic trade-offs critically dependent on a nation’s institutional framework and developmental stage. Policymakers must adopt context-specific strategies to navigate these complexities effectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"185 ","pages":"Article 100669"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145880130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Technology in Africa: is the use of ICT making a decisive contribution to growth? 非洲的技术：信息通信技术的使用是否对经济增长做出了决定性贡献？

International Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100676

Désiré Avom , Gilles Dufrénot , Sylvie ML. Eyeffa Ekomo

引用次数: 0

Measuring financial integration in GCC stock markets: Dynamics, risk premia, and the path to enhanced cooperation 衡量海湾合作委员会股票市场的金融一体化：动态、风险溢价和加强合作的途径

International Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100667

Salem Boubakri , Cyriac Guillaumin

{"title":"Measuring financial integration in GCC stock markets: Dynamics, risk premia, and the path to enhanced cooperation","authors":"Salem Boubakri , Cyriac Guillaumin","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100667","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100667","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The goal of this study is to examine the extent and dynamics of regional financial integration among the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries by analysing local stock market returns through various risk premia related to both regional stock and exchange markets. Our approach employs the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM), which incorporates the degree of financial integration when pricing market risk premia. Additionally, we introduce a regional currency basket, the <em>Khaleeji</em>, to establish a reference currency for the region and to prospect the twin objective: reducing the peg to the US dollar and fostering regional monetary cooperation. Our key findings reveal that GCC stock markets are influenced by both regional and local financial shocks and crises. Long-term analysis demonstrates that the regional risk premium is significant for GCC countries, with stronger cooperation potentially improving regional risk-sharing. The results further suggest that the level of regional financial integration varies across countries, reflecting a partial integration among GCC countries. The growing importance of regional risk premia and financial integration may stimulate increased financial cooperation within the GCC, ultimately leading to enhanced economic integration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"185 ","pages":"Article 100667"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145786741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Measuring financial stability and comparing financial risk monitoring indicators 衡量金融稳定性，比较金融风险监测指标

International Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2026.100681

Manlan N'Goran

{"title":"Measuring financial stability and comparing financial risk monitoring indicators","authors":"Manlan N'Goran","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2026.100681","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2026.100681","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the effectiveness of financial risk monitoring indicators when predicting financial cycles and assessing systemic vulnerabilities in the euro area. Using a time-varying parameter vector autoregression model, we analyse the dynamic impact of four key financial risk monitoring shocks across eleven euro area countries: aggregate financial stability index (AFSI) shocks, macroeconomic risk shocks, market risk shocks, and liquidity risk shocks. The results reveal significant heterogeneity in financial cycle responses, with core economies exhibiting faster recoveries and peripheral economies experiencing prolonged downturns as a result of structural fragilities. Compared to conventional financial risk monitoring indicators, the AFSI demonstrates superior predictive power when capturing financial cycle dynamics. These findings underscore the need for country-specific macroprudential policies within a coordinated European framework. Strengthening liquidity safety nets and refining risk-based capital buffers can enhance financial resilience. Our study contributes to the literature by offering a dynamic, policy-relevant approach to financial stability assessment in monetary unions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"185 ","pages":"Article 100681"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147420653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Exchange rate fluctuations and energy transition in Africa 非洲的汇率波动和能源转型

International Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100673

Tii Nchofoung , Nathanael Ojong , Eric Kehinde Ogunleye

引用次数: 0

Chains of disparity: How global value chains reshape income distribution in the Malaysian manufacturing sector 差距链：全球价值链如何重塑马来西亚制造业的收入分配

International Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100675

Kay Kiang Tan , Andrew Jia Yi Kam

{"title":"Chains of disparity: How global value chains reshape income distribution in the Malaysian manufacturing sector","authors":"Kay Kiang Tan , Andrew Jia Yi Kam","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100675","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100675","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the heterogeneous impact of Global Value Chain (GVC) participation on multidimensional income inequality within Malaysia's manufacturing sector between 2000 and 2015. Using unpublished and detailed economic census data from the Department of Statistics Malaysia, the analysis employs panel regressions to assess the effects of GVC participation, mediated by human and technological capital endowments, across various manufacturing industries. We examine how different types of GVC participation, namely backward and forward linkages, interact with human and technological capabilities to influence income inequality. Our results show that Malaysia's integration into GVCs has generally widened income inequality in terms of value-added, wage distribution, and a decreased labour income share, with backward linkages being the primarily driver of these effects. In contrast, forward linkages tend to have weaker impacts and may even reduce inequality in low- and medium-technology industries. The impact also display substantial regional heterogeneity, with less-developed states or those without Free Industrial Zones experiencing a more significant rise in inequality. Medium-high-technology industries likewise exhibit stronger inequality-worsening effects. While stronger technological and human capabilities can moderate inequality in value-added and wage distribution, they are not able to improve the income inequality effects of GVC participation on factor income distribution. Policy recommendations include the need to support domestic firms in upgrading technology and skills, better leverage the potential benefits of forward GVC participation, and address regional disparities. Continuous monitoring and further research, alongside sustained investment in education and R&D, remain essential.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"185 ","pages":"Article 100675"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146034248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Employment sentiment behavior during European economic crises: Time trends and persistence analysis 欧洲经济危机期间的就业情绪行为：时间趋势与持续性分析

International Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100670

María Isabel Luna Kanematsu , Manuel Monge , Juan Infante

引用次数: 0