International Economics最新文献_第2页

Do natural disasters translate into trade disasters? 自然灾害会转化为贸易灾难吗？

International Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100581

Swati Saini , Yashobanta Parida

{"title":"Do natural disasters translate into trade disasters?","authors":"Swati Saini , Yashobanta Parida","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100581","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100581","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper empirically investigates the relationship between natural disasters and agricultural trade for a sample of 187 countries during the period of 1991–2019. To this end, we estimate a theory-grounded gravity equation using Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator, controlling for multilateral resistance terms by including (i) both country-pair fixed effects and country-year fixed effects, and (ii) intra-national (domestic) trade flows in addition to international trade flows. Our findings suggest that different types of natural disasters have varied effects on international trade compared to domestic trade in the agriculture sector. Specifically, we observe that droughts, landslides, and insect infestations disrupt trade flows (relative to domestic ones) in most agricultural product categories while floods and storms exert a consistently positive influence on trade flows across product groups. However, the intensity of a disaster plays a crucial role in determining its impact. The positive effects of floods and storms diminish when distinguishing between severe and moderate disasters. For instance, severe floods in developing countries reduce international trade (relative to domestic trade) across nearly all product categories. Similarly, moderate storms in developing countries have a significantly negative impact on the majority of product groups. Natural disasters have a significantly more pronounced effect on international trade (compared to domestic trade) in developing countries than in developed ones, likely due to developed nations' superior mitigation capacities and better storage infrastructure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 100581"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143704105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Measuring the contemporal and lead connectedness level between investor sentiment and exchange rate dynamics in Vietnam: Novel findings from TVP-VAR-SV technique 衡量越南投资者情绪与汇率动态之间的当代和领先联系水平：TVP-VAR-SV技术的新发现

International Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100578

Le Thanh Ha

{"title":"Measuring the contemporal and lead connectedness level between investor sentiment and exchange rate dynamics in Vietnam: Novel findings from TVP-VAR-SV technique","authors":"Le Thanh Ha","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100578","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100578","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The literature has underscored the significance of investor sentiment in understanding excess stock returns and volatility. However, scholars have paid less attention to measuring investor sentiment related to stock markets and analyzing its impacts on the macroeconomy in Vietnam. Our article employs a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) to examine the connectedness of three key variables from January 1, 2017, to November 25, 2023, and to analyze the relationship between investor sentiment and the exchange rate. Following a positive shock in investment sentiment, the exchange rates of USD/VND and GBP/VND exhibited similar responses, showing a negative movement in the 1-period ahead before turning positive in the 3-period ahead. Conversely, EUR/VND and JPY/VND displayed positive movements both in the 1-period and 3-period ahead in response to the shock. Meanwhile, CNY/VND, reacted negatively overall to a positive shock in investment sentiment was negative. Our results have important policy implications for both investors and policymakers. The study also highlights how spillover effects among various indicators and their interconnections can be leveraged to stabilize financial and macroeconomic markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 100578"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143379448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An investigation of monetary autonomy under corner solution and middle ground: A panel data analysis 拐角解与中间地带下的货币自主性研究：一个面板数据分析

International Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100579

Fang Dong , William Marquis

{"title":"An investigation of monetary autonomy under corner solution and middle ground: A panel data analysis","authors":"Fang Dong , William Marquis","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100579","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2025.100579","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The objective of this study is to examine the existence of monetary autonomy within the framework of the macroeconomic trilemma hypothesis. We estimate panel data models with fixed effects, random effects, and fixed effects with cross-sectional dependence to assess monetary autonomy in 36 countries from January 1991 to December 2023. The dependent variable captures changes in policy interest rates in these peripheral countries, while the independent variables include changes in the U.S. policy interest rate, nominal exchange rate regimes (flexible vs fixed or float, soft peg, and peg), capital mobility regimes (capital controls vs free capital mobility or closed, mid-open, and open), foreign exchange reserves relative to nominal GDP, and indicators for currency/financial crises and Covid-19, among others. Using monthly data from various sources, we find no evidence of monetary autonomy under a fixed exchange rate with free capital mobility in both the “corner solution” and “middle ground” models, aligning with the macroeconomic trilemma hypothesis. However, we do find evidence of monetary autonomy in the middle ground case (soft peg with mid-open capital market) and that further evidence that foreign exchange reserves can mitigate the trilemma hypothesis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 100579"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143352340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fuel price surges and rising inflation expectations in the Euro Area 欧元区燃料价格飙升，通胀预期上升

International Economics Pub Date : 2024-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100576

Hugo Morão

引用次数: 0

Central bank digital currency and cryptocurrency in emerging markets 新兴市场的央行数字货币和加密货币

International Economics Pub Date : 2024-12-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100577

Anh H. Le

引用次数: 0

Trade-in-task and regional income inequalities 任务交换和地区收入不平等

International Economics Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100575

Roberta Capello, Damares Lopes Afonso, Giovanni Perucca

引用次数: 0

What role for aid for trade in (deep) PTA relations? Empirical evidence from gravity model estimations 在（深度）PTA关系中，贸易援助扮演什么角色？来自重力模型估计的经验证据

International Economics Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100574

Frederik Stender, Tim Vogel

{"title":"What role for aid for trade in (deep) PTA relations? Empirical evidence from gravity model estimations","authors":"Frederik Stender, Tim Vogel","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100574","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100574","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While preferential trade agreements (PTAs) cover an increasing range of policy areas, little is known about the implications of this new emphasis on interactions with other trade-related policies. We approach this gap by examining the effectiveness of bilateral aid for trade (AfT) in promoting exports for recipient countries within deep North–South PTA relations. Using a structural gravity model for bilateral panel data of 29 OECD DAC countries and 144 developing countries from 2002 to 2015, we find that the marginal effect of AfT decreases as PTA policy areas expand. Further investigation of the underlying mechanisms suggests that the observed trade-off between PTA depth and AfT effectiveness may be due to compliance with the non-tariff provisions contained in deep PTAs. We find two lines of reasoning plausible. First, compliance efforts appear to consume large fractions of AfT, reducing its availability for potentially more effective projects. Second, since we also observe heterogeneity in interactions across donors, AfT provided by high-income PTA partners could well be used to redirect exports to third countries with comparatively fewer bilateral obligations. Provided that a core focus of AfT remains on strengthening international trade relations, including between donors and recipients, donor countries should therefore carefully weigh compliance costs to developing countries against the non-trade benefits of common deep PTAs, and accurately identify financial and technical assistance needs with their PTA partners.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 100574"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143148731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Tail risk contagion and connectedness between crude oil, natural gas, heating oil, precious metals, and international stock markets 原油、天然气、取暖油、贵金属和国际股票市场之间的尾部风险传染和连通性

International Economics Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100570

Walid Mensi , Remzi Gök , Eray Gemici , Sang Hoon Kang

引用次数: 0

Macroeconomic responses to financial stress shocks: Evidence from the US and the Eurozone 宏观经济对金融压力冲击的反应：来自美国和欧元区的证据

International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100573

Nikolaos Giannellis, Maria-Anna Tzanaki

{"title":"Macroeconomic responses to financial stress shocks: Evidence from the US and the Eurozone","authors":"Nikolaos Giannellis, Maria-Anna Tzanaki","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100573","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100573","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of an unexpected financial stress shock in the United States and the Eurozone, focusing mainly on the effect on unemployment and the response of monetary policy. First, we estimate Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) based on a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model with short-run restrictions according to economic theory. Next, we perform panel data analysis shedding light on the factors that affect unemployment in the two regions. Our findings indicate a significant impact of financial stress shocks on the macroeconomic environment, but with different policy responses from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). The impact of higher financial stress on economic activity and employment is negative in both regions, but the duration of the impact on unemployment is shorter in the US, suggesting a quicker recovery in the US labor market compared to the Eurozone. The faster recovery of the US labor market is primarily due to the superior institutional and regulatory performance in the US. These findings provide policymakers with valuable lessons about the importance of continuous monitoring and quick action to mitigate the negative effects of financial instability on economic activity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 100573"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143148729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The effects of physical and transition climate risk on stock markets: Some multi-Country evidence 物理和转型气候风险对股票市场的影响：一些多国证据

International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100571

Marina Albanese , Guglielmo Maria Caporale , Ida Colella , Nicola Spagnolo

引用次数: 0