International Economics最新文献_第6页

Tail risk contagion and connectedness between crude oil, natural gas, heating oil, precious metals, and international stock markets 原油、天然气、取暖油、贵金属和国际股票市场之间的尾部风险传染和连通性

International Economics Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100570

Walid Mensi , Remzi Gök , Eray Gemici , Sang Hoon Kang

引用次数: 0

Macroeconomic responses to financial stress shocks: Evidence from the US and the Eurozone 宏观经济对金融压力冲击的反应：来自美国和欧元区的证据

International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100573

Nikolaos Giannellis, Maria-Anna Tzanaki

{"title":"Macroeconomic responses to financial stress shocks: Evidence from the US and the Eurozone","authors":"Nikolaos Giannellis, Maria-Anna Tzanaki","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100573","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100573","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of an unexpected financial stress shock in the United States and the Eurozone, focusing mainly on the effect on unemployment and the response of monetary policy. First, we estimate Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) based on a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model with short-run restrictions according to economic theory. Next, we perform panel data analysis shedding light on the factors that affect unemployment in the two regions. Our findings indicate a significant impact of financial stress shocks on the macroeconomic environment, but with different policy responses from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). The impact of higher financial stress on economic activity and employment is negative in both regions, but the duration of the impact on unemployment is shorter in the US, suggesting a quicker recovery in the US labor market compared to the Eurozone. The faster recovery of the US labor market is primarily due to the superior institutional and regulatory performance in the US. These findings provide policymakers with valuable lessons about the importance of continuous monitoring and quick action to mitigate the negative effects of financial instability on economic activity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 100573"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143148729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The effects of physical and transition climate risk on stock markets: Some multi-Country evidence 物理和转型气候风险对股票市场的影响：一些多国证据

International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100571

Marina Albanese , Guglielmo Maria Caporale , Ida Colella , Nicola Spagnolo

引用次数: 0

Macroeconomic effects of climate change: Evidence from Canadian provinces 气候变化的宏观经济影响：来自加拿大各省的证据

International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100572

Lucy Q. Liu , Dan Pan , Mehdi Raissi

{"title":"Macroeconomic effects of climate change: Evidence from Canadian provinces","authors":"Lucy Q. Liu , Dan Pan , Mehdi Raissi","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100572","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100572","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change across ten Canadian provinces between 1961 and 2017. Following Kahn et al. (2021a), our econometric strategy links deviations of temperature and precipitation (weather) from their multi-decade historical rolling averages (climate) to various province-specific economic performance indicators at the aggregate and sectoral levels. We show that climate change (proxied by a series of weather shocks) has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various Canadian provinces and economic sectors. Adaptation reduces the income losses but cannot offset them entirely. Moreover, in contrast to most cross-country results, our within-country estimates suggest asymmetrical growth effects from precipitation and temperature anomalies. Specifically, persistently higher-than-normal precipitation is associated with lower long-term GDP growth, whereas the effect of below-than-normal precipitation is not statistically significant. As regards temperature, while extended periods of cold spells (temperature persistently below historical norms) is detrimental to growth (though less likely in the future), Canada is not benefiting from a warmer climate as often argued in the literature.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 100572"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143147391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do ICTs promote the renewable energy consumption? The moderating effects of economic growth and structural transformation in Africa 信息和传播技术是否促进了可再生能源消费？非洲经济增长和结构转型的调节作用

International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100563

Ariel Herbert Fambeu , Patricia Tchawa Yomi

引用次数: 0

The impact of the belt and road initiative on international consumption risk sharing: A difference-in-differences analysis 一带一路 "倡议对国际消费风险分担的影响：差异分析

International Economics Pub Date : 2024-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100562

Cheng Zhou

引用次数: 0

Broadening the definition of healthcare products in global trade: Insights from a new classification 拓宽全球贸易中保健产品的定义：新分类法的启示

International Economics Pub Date : 2024-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100561

Pierre Cotterlaz , Guillaume Gaulier , Aude Sztulman , Deniz Ünal

{"title":"Broadening the definition of healthcare products in global trade: Insights from a new classification","authors":"Pierre Cotterlaz , Guillaume Gaulier , Aude Sztulman , Deniz Ünal","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100561","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100561","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>International trade in healthcare products took off during the 2000s, paralleling the peak of hyper-globalisation. Two decades later, the Covid-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of health security for governments. This crisis brought issues of industrial sovereignty to the forefront and exposed vulnerabilities within global production networks. However, the intricate web of global value chains has compromised the traceability of these essential goods. Additionally, the classification of healthcare products across multiple industries in standard trade and production nomenclatures complicates their identification and further obscures the analysis. In this paper, we systematically identify products that address the needs of national health systems and gather them into a single industry grouping to evaluate the scale and trends in trade. This healthcare industry grouping, encompassing a broad array of products—medicinal products and their compounds, medical technology equipment, and small medical materials— has demonstrated the highest relative growth among all industry groupings since 2000. Our study provides a detailed examination of the nature of global trade in the healthcare industry grouping and its five branches, categorized by production stage (intermediate and final) and quality/price range. We analyze the positioning of advanced economies in comparison to the rest of the world and offer insights into the geographical and geopolitical breakdowns of healthcare industry trade, both within and between country blocs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 100561"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

This is going to hurt: Weather anomalies, supply chain pressures and inflation 这会造成伤害：天气异常、供应链压力和通货膨胀

International Economics Pub Date : 2024-10-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100560

Serhan Cevik , Gyowon Gwon

{"title":"This is going to hurt: Weather anomalies, supply chain pressures and inflation","authors":"Serhan Cevik , Gyowon Gwon","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100560","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100560","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As climate change accelerates, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events are expected to worsen and have greater adverse consequences for ecosystems, physical infrastructure, and economic activity across the world. This paper investigates how weather anomalies affect global supply chains and inflation dynamics. Using monthly data for six large and well-diversified economies (China, the Euro area, Japan, Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States) over the period 1997–2021, we implement a structural vector autoregressive model and document that weather anomalies could disrupt supply chains and subsequently lead to inflationary pressures. Our results—based on the monthly data and robust to alternative estimation methodologies—show that these effects vary across countries, depending on the severity of weather shocks and vulnerability to supply chain disruptions. The impact of weather shocks on supply chains and inflation dynamics is likely to become more pronounced with accelerating climate change that can have heterogeneous effects. These findings have important policy implications. Central bankers should consider the impact of weather anomalies on supply chains and inflation dynamics to prevent entrenching second-round effects and de-anchoring of inflation expectations. More directly, however, governments can invest more for climate change adaptation to strengthen critical infrastructure and thereby minimize supply chain disruptions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 100560"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142573186","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Oil shocks and the Islamic financial market: Evidence from a causality-in-quantile approach 石油冲击与伊斯兰金融市场：量化因果关系方法的证据

International Economics Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100559

Ibrahim D. Raheem , Sara le Roux , Mobeen Ur Rehman

{"title":"Oil shocks and the Islamic financial market: Evidence from a causality-in-quantile approach","authors":"Ibrahim D. Raheem , Sara le Roux , Mobeen Ur Rehman","doi":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100559","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100559","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the nonlinear relationship between Islamic stock indices and oil shocks. Nonlinearity is viewed from the prism of nonparametric causality-in-quantile, and oil price is decomposed into demand, supply, and risk. The objective of this study is to examine the causality between sectoral Islamic stocks and oil shocks. Using a dataset for ten sectoral Islamic stock indices, we show that causality between the variables of interest is heterogenous across (i) measures of shocks (i.e., demand, supply, or risk), (ii) types of the sector (i.e., the ten sectors), (iii) state of the market (bear, normal, bull) and (iv) model specifications (mean vs. variance equation). We find that for the US, sectoral returns, demand and risk shocks affect Industrial, Information Technology, and ESG sectors across all quantiles, while supply shocks cause changes across normal market conditions. The US healthcare sector remains insensitive and the communications sector is affected only across extreme quantiles. Each oil shock exhibits a significant causal effect on Asian Pacific and Emerging Islamic markets consistently across all quantiles. Developed and European Islamic markets remain sensitive to risk-related shocks. Policy implications of these results are discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13794,"journal":{"name":"International Economics","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 100559"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Trade Policy Ppace, Aid for Trade and, Intra-African and External African Manufactured Exports 贸易政策空间、贸易援助、非洲内部和非洲外部制成品出口

International Economics Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100558

Sèna Kimm Gnangnon

引用次数: 0