{"title":"Modeling the Impact of Ensitrelvir on SARS-CoV-2 Dynamics and Its Application for Assessment of Transmission Mitigation of Patients with COVID-19.","authors":"Daichi Yamaguchi, Masaya M Saito, Ayano Hata, Ryosuke Shimizu, Shogo Miyazawa, Takamichi Baba, Ryuji Kubota, Yoshitake Kitanishi","doi":"10.1007/s40121-024-01046-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s40121-024-01046-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Mathematical modeling can provide quantitative understanding of the viral dynamics and viral reduction effects of drugs and enable simulations of the dynamics in various scenarios. In this study, a drug effect model of ensitrelvir was developed to describe the viral reduction effect. Using the model, we also estimated the impact of treatment with ensitrelvir on the reduction in the number of infected patients at the population level in Japan.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The drug effect model of ensitrelvir was developed based on a viral dynamic model for the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and a population pharmacokinetic model of ensitrelvir using 10,477 samples of viral load from 1447 patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a phase 2/3 study. It was assumed that the drug effect on SARS-CoV-2 promoted the viral clearance depending on the free plasma concentrations. We estimated the impact of ensitrelvir treatment on the reduction in the number of infected patients at the population level in Japan using the susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model including transmission mitigation.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The viral reduction effect of ensitrelvir was characterized as a promotion of viral clearance depending on the plasma ensitrelvir concentrations using the E<sub>max</sub> model. The maximum reduction effect was considered to depend on the time from symptom onset to treatment. The maximum transmission mitigation effect was observed when treatment was initiated within 12-24 h of symptom onset, and secondary infections could be reduced by administering ensitrelvir as soon as possible after symptom onset.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The viral reduction by ensitrelvir could be characterized based on the viral dynamics, and the dynamics could be estimated using the drug effect model. Furthermore, the drug effect on population level transmission based on the dynamics could be estimated. Thus, the simulation could be conducted for various conditions.</p>","PeriodicalId":13592,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases and Therapy","volume":" ","pages":"2377-2393"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11499563/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142380757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Letter to the Editor regarding Response to \"Letter to Editor: \"Real-World Effectiveness of Ensitrelvir in Reducing Severe Outcomes in Outpatients at High Risk for COVID-19\".","authors":"Takahiro Takazono, Satoki Fujita, Takuji Komeda, Shogo Miyazawa, Yuki Yoshida, Yoshitake Kitanishi, Masahiro Kinoshita, Satoshi Kojima, Huilian Shen, Takeki Uehara, Naoki Hosogaya, Naoki Iwanaga, Hiroshi Mukae","doi":"10.1007/s40121-024-01054-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s40121-024-01054-6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":13592,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases and Therapy","volume":" ","pages":"2463-2467"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11499536/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142345905","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Colleen S Kraft, Matthew Sims, Michael Silverman, Thomas J Louie, Paul Feuerstadt, Edward S Huang, Sahil Khanna, Charles S Berenson, Elaine E L Wang, Stuart H Cohen, Louis Korman, Christine Lee, Colleen R Kelly, Alberto Odio, Paul P Cook, Bret Lashner, Mayur Ramesh, Princy Kumar, Ananya De, Asli Memisoglu, David A Lombardi, Brooke R Hasson, Barbara H McGovern, Lisa von Moltke, Darrell S Pardi
{"title":"Integrated Safety and Efficacy Analyses of Phase 3 Trials of a Microbiome Therapeutic for Recurrent CDI.","authors":"Colleen S Kraft, Matthew Sims, Michael Silverman, Thomas J Louie, Paul Feuerstadt, Edward S Huang, Sahil Khanna, Charles S Berenson, Elaine E L Wang, Stuart H Cohen, Louis Korman, Christine Lee, Colleen R Kelly, Alberto Odio, Paul P Cook, Bret Lashner, Mayur Ramesh, Princy Kumar, Ananya De, Asli Memisoglu, David A Lombardi, Brooke R Hasson, Barbara H McGovern, Lisa von Moltke, Darrell S Pardi","doi":"10.1007/s40121-024-01007-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s40121-024-01007-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Recurrent Clostridioides difficile infection (rCDI) often occurs after standard-of-care antibiotics. VOWST oral spores (VOS, previously SER-109), an FDA-approved orally administered microbiome therapeutic, is indicated to prevent rCDI following antibiotics for rCDI.</p><p><strong>Objective, design, and patients: </strong>To evaluate safety and efficacy of VOS from two phase 3 trials, (randomized, placebo-controlled [ECOSPOR III: NCT03183128] and open-label, single arm [ECOSPOR IV: NCT03183141]) of 349 adults with rCDI and prevalent comorbidities.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>VOS or placebo [ECOSPOR III only] (4 capsules once daily for 3 days). Integrated analysis of treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) collected through week 8; serious TEAEs and TEAEs of special interest collected through week 24; and rates of rCDI (toxin-positive diarrhea requiring treatment) evaluated through weeks 8 and 24.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>TEAEs were mostly mild or moderate and gastrointestinal. Most common treatment-related TEAEs were flatulence, abdominal pain and distension, fatigue, and diarrhea. There were 11 deaths (3.2%) and 48 patients (13.8%) with serious TEAEs, none treatment-related. The rCDI rate through week 8 was 9.5% (95% CI 6.6-13.0) and remained low through 24 weeks (15.2%; 95% CI 11.6-19.4). Safety and rCDI rates were consistent across subgroups including age, renal impairment/failure, diabetes, and immunocompromise/immunosuppression.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>VOS was well tolerated and rates of rCDI remained low through week 24 including in those with comorbidities. These data support the potential benefit of VOS following antibiotics to prevent recurrence in high-risk patients.</p><p><strong>Trial registration: </strong>ClinicalTrials.gov identifier, NCT03183128 and NCT03183141.</p>","PeriodicalId":13592,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases and Therapy","volume":" ","pages":"2105-2121"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11416444/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141467760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Colleen S Kraft, Matthew Sims, Michael Silverman, Thomas J Louie, Paul Feuerstadt, Edward S Huang, Sahil Khanna, Charles S Berenson, Elaine E L Wang, Stuart H Cohen, Louis Korman, Christine Lee, Colleen R Kelly, Alberto Odio, Paul P Cook, Bret Lashner, Mayur Ramesh, Princy Kumar, Ananya De, Asli Memisoglu, David A Lombardi, Brooke R Hasson, Barbara H McGovern, Lisa von Moltke, Darrell S Pardi
{"title":"Correction to: Integrated Safety and Efficacy Analyses of Phase 3 Trials of a Microbiome Therapeutic for Recurrent CDI.","authors":"Colleen S Kraft, Matthew Sims, Michael Silverman, Thomas J Louie, Paul Feuerstadt, Edward S Huang, Sahil Khanna, Charles S Berenson, Elaine E L Wang, Stuart H Cohen, Louis Korman, Christine Lee, Colleen R Kelly, Alberto Odio, Paul P Cook, Bret Lashner, Mayur Ramesh, Princy Kumar, Ananya De, Asli Memisoglu, David A Lombardi, Brooke R Hasson, Barbara H McGovern, Lisa von Moltke, Darrell S Pardi","doi":"10.1007/s40121-024-01036-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s40121-024-01036-8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":13592,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases and Therapy","volume":" ","pages":"2209-2210"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11416435/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142106995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hannah R Volkman, Jennifer L Nguyen, Luis Jodar, John M McLaughlin
{"title":"A Letter to the Editor Regarding 'Comparative Effectiveness of mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 Vaccines Among Older Adults: Systematic Literature Review and Meta-analysis Using the GRADE Framework'.","authors":"Hannah R Volkman, Jennifer L Nguyen, Luis Jodar, John M McLaughlin","doi":"10.1007/s40121-024-01019-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s40121-024-01019-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":13592,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases and Therapy","volume":" ","pages":"2203-2206"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11416434/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142046593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dipak R Patel, Lisa Macpherson, Martin Bohm, Himanshu Upadhyaya, Carmen Deveau, Ajay Nirula, Paul Klekotka, Mark Williams, Matthew M Hufford
{"title":"Efficacy and Safety of Low-Dose, Rapidly Infused Bamlanivimab and Etesevimab: Phase 3 BLAZE-1 Trial for Mild-to-Moderate COVID-19.","authors":"Dipak R Patel, Lisa Macpherson, Martin Bohm, Himanshu Upadhyaya, Carmen Deveau, Ajay Nirula, Paul Klekotka, Mark Williams, Matthew M Hufford","doi":"10.1007/s40121-024-01031-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s40121-024-01031-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>The monoclonal antibody therapies bamlanivimab (BAM) + etesevimab (ETE) received emergency use authorization (EUA) from the US Food and Drug Administration (February 9, 2021) for treatment of mild-to-moderate COVID-19. The EUA of BAM + ETE was revoked (December 14, 2023) due to the high prevalence of BAM + ETE-resistant variants of SARS-CoV-2. Efficacy and safety of 700/1400 mg and 2800/2800 mg BAM + ETE are well established and published; however, efficacy and safety of 350/700 mg BAM + ETE have not been disclosed to date.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This portion of phase 3, BLAZE-1 trial (J2X-MC-PYAB) enrolled patients (between June 17, 2020 and April 9, 2021) with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 within 3 days of laboratory diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection. In total, 354 patients with at least one risk factor for severe COVID-19 were enrolled, randomized (2:3), and infused with placebo (N = 141) or 350/700 mg BAM + ETE (N = 213), over ~ 8 min. Primary endpoint was to assess proportion of patients with persistently high SARS-CoV-2 viral load (PHVL) (log viral load > 5.27) 7 days after infusion.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Patients were aged (mean) 53 years, 49.7% female, and 82.7% White. Seven days after drug infusion, 10.8% (95% confidence interval: 6.6, 15.0; p < 0.001) of BAM + ETE-treated patients and 34.8% (26.9, 42.6) of placebo-treated patients had PHVL, and the viral load change from baseline (least square mean [standard error]) was - 3.50 (0.15; p < 0.001) in BAM + ETE-treated patients versus - 2.51 (0.19) in placebo-treated patients. The majority of treatment-emergent adverse events were considered mild or moderate in severity (BAM + ETE: 6.6%; placebo: 14.2%). No deaths were reported.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Consistent with previous studies, patients treated with BAM + ETE (350/700 mg) had a significantly lower proportion of PHVL and greater reduction in viral load compared with placebo. The overall safety profile is consistent with higher doses of BAM + ETE. Infusions of over ~ 8 min did not result in meaningful increase in incidence of TEAEs compared to higher doses of BAM + ETE administered over 30-60 min.</p><p><strong>Trial registration: </strong>Clinical trial.gov identifier, NCT04427501.</p>","PeriodicalId":13592,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases and Therapy","volume":" ","pages":"2123-2134"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11416433/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142125633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Chiara Russo, Malgorzata Mikulska, Emanuele Delfino, Federica Toscanini, Laura Mezzogori, Riccardo Schiavoni, Claudia Bartalucci, Emanuele Angelucci, Giulia Bartalucci, Massimiliano Gambella, Anna Maria Raiola, Paola Morici, Francesca Crea, Silvia Chiola, Silvia Daniela Morbelli, Anna Marchese, Matteo Bassetti
{"title":"Mycoplasma hominis as Cause of Extragenital Infection in Patients with Hypogammaglobulinemia: Report of 2 Cases and Literature Review.","authors":"Chiara Russo, Malgorzata Mikulska, Emanuele Delfino, Federica Toscanini, Laura Mezzogori, Riccardo Schiavoni, Claudia Bartalucci, Emanuele Angelucci, Giulia Bartalucci, Massimiliano Gambella, Anna Maria Raiola, Paola Morici, Francesca Crea, Silvia Chiola, Silvia Daniela Morbelli, Anna Marchese, Matteo Bassetti","doi":"10.1007/s40121-024-01035-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s40121-024-01035-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Mycoplasma hominis can be a part of human urogenital tract microbiome, and it is a frequent cause of urogenital infections. In rare cases, it can also cause extragenital infections, especially in immunocompromised patients. In this case series, we report two cases and provide a literature review of extragenital infections caused by M. hominis in patients with hypogammaglobulinemia. Patient 1 was a 61-year-old woman with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma who, after rituximab-containing chemotherapy and CAR-T therapy, developed M. hominis spondylodiscitis. Patient 2 was a 50-year-old woman with congenital hypogammaglobulinemia who developed disseminated M. hominis infection involving pleura, muscles, and right ankle. Antibiotic therapy with levofloxacin and doxycycline for 10 weeks in patient 1 and with levofloxacin alone for 6 weeks in patient 2 led to infection resolution. The literature review identified 14 additional cases reporting M. hominis extragenital infection in patients with hypogammaglobulinemia. M. hominis should also be suspected as an etiological agent of extragenital infection in patients with B-cell immunodeficiency with a clinical picture of persistent, standard-culture negative infection, particularly with arthritis or abscess formation. Even if M. hominis can grow on standard bacterial medium, in suspected cases molecular methods should be promptly used for correct diagnostic work-up and successful therapy.</p>","PeriodicalId":13592,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases and Therapy","volume":" ","pages":"2179-2193"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11416451/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142125637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Alexia Kieffer, Matthieu Beuvelet, Gerald Moncayo, Mersha Chetty, Aditya Sardesai, Robert Musci, Richard Hudson
{"title":"Disease Burden Associated with All Infants in Their First RSV Season in the UK: A Static Model of Universal Immunization with Nirsevimab Against RSV-Related Outcomes.","authors":"Alexia Kieffer, Matthieu Beuvelet, Gerald Moncayo, Mersha Chetty, Aditya Sardesai, Robert Musci, Richard Hudson","doi":"10.1007/s40121-024-01037-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s40121-024-01037-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) leads to significant morbidity in newborn infants in the United Kingdom (UK). Nirsevimab, a long-acting monoclonal antibody, received approval from the European Medicines Agency and has been licensed by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency for preventing RSV lower respiratory tract disease (LRTD) in neonates and infants during their first RSV season. The objective of this study was to assess the potential impact of nirsevimab on RSV-associated LRTDs, related costs, and loss of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in infants experiencing their first RSV season.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The impact of administering nirsevimab across all infant populations compared to palivizumab in the high-risk palivizumab-eligible population was assessed via a static decision-analytic model specified for a UK birth cohort experiencing their first RSV season. The RSV-related health events of interest included primary care (PC), accident and emergency (A&E) visits, hospitalizations [including hospitalizations alone and those resulting in intensive care unit (ICU) admissions], recurrent wheezing in infants who were previously hospitalized, and all-cause LRTD hospitalizations.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Under the current standard of practice (SoP), RSV was estimated to result in 329,425 RSV LRTDs annually, including 24,381 hospitalizations and ICU admissions, representing £117.8 million (2024 GBP) in costs. Comparatively, universal immunization of all infants with nirsevimab could avoid 198,886 RSV LRTDs, including 16,657 hospitalizations and ICU admissions, resulting in savings of £77.2 million in RSV treatment costs. Considering the impact on all-cause LRTD of a universal immunization strategy, nirsevimab could be valued between £243 and £274, assuming willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds of £20,000 and £30,000 per QALY saved, respectively.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>This analysis demonstrated that the health and economic burden of RSV would be substantially reduced in all infants experiencing their first RSV season in the UK (including term, preterm, and palivizumab-eligible infants) as a result of a universal immunization strategy with nirsevimab.</p>","PeriodicalId":13592,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases and Therapy","volume":" ","pages":"2135-2153"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11416453/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142132624","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ekkehard Beck, Mary T Bausch-Jurken, Nicolas Van de Velde, Xuan Wang, Mia Malmenäs
{"title":"A Response to: A Letter to the Editor Regarding 'Comparative Effectiveness of mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 Vaccines Among Older Adults: Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Analysis Using the GRADE Framework'.","authors":"Ekkehard Beck, Mary T Bausch-Jurken, Nicolas Van de Velde, Xuan Wang, Mia Malmenäs","doi":"10.1007/s40121-024-01020-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s40121-024-01020-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":13592,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases and Therapy","volume":" ","pages":"2195-2202"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11416437/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142046594","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Christian J. A. Schindler, Ian Wittenberg, Oliver Damm, Rolf Kramer, Rafael Mikolajczyk, Tonio Schönfelder
{"title":"Influenza-Associated Excess Mortality and Hospitalization in Germany from 1996 to 2018","authors":"Christian J. A. Schindler, Ian Wittenberg, Oliver Damm, Rolf Kramer, Rafael Mikolajczyk, Tonio Schönfelder","doi":"10.1007/s40121-024-01043-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40121-024-01043-9","url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Introduction</h3><p>Influenza-associated excess mortality and morbidity is commonly estimated using statistical methods. In Germany, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) uses the relative mortality distribution method (RMDM) to estimate influenza-associated excess mortality without reporting age-specific values. In order to better differentiate the distribution of the disease burden, a distinction by age is of high relevance. Therefore, we aimed to revise the existing excess mortality model and provide age-specific excess mortality estimates over multiple seasons. We also used the model to determine influenza-associated excess hospitalizations, since the RKI excess hospitalization model is currently based on another approach (i.e., combination of excess physician visits and hospitalized proportion).</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Methods</h3><p>This study was a retrospective data analysis based on secondary data of the German population from 1996–2018. We adapted the RKI’s method of estimating influenza-associated excess mortality with the RMDM and also applied this approach to excess hospitalizations. We calculated the number of excess deaths/hospitalizations using weekly and age-specific data.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Results</h3><p>Data available in Germany are suitable for addressing the restrictions of the RKI’s mortality model. In total, we estimated 175,858 (176,482 with age stratification) influenza-associated excess all cause deaths between 1995–1996 and 2017–2018 ranging from 0 (17 with age stratification) in 2005–2006 to 25,599 (25,527 with age stratification) in 2017–2018. Total influenza-associated excess deaths were comparable to RKI’s estimates in most seasons. Most excess deaths/hospitalizations occurred in patients aged ≥ 60 years (95.42%/57.49%) followed by those aged 35–59 years (3,80%/24,98%). Compared with our model, the RKI hospitalization model implies a substantial underestimation of excess hospitalizations (828,090 vs. 374,200 over all seasons).</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Conclusion</h3><p>This is the first study that provides age-specific estimates of influenza-associated excess mortality in Germany. The results clearly show that the main burden of influenza is in the elderly, for whom prevention and control measures should be prioritized.</p>","PeriodicalId":13592,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases and Therapy","volume":"69 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142254511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}