Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal最新文献

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Carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health risk assessment of heavy metals contamination in groundwater in the west of Minia area, Egypt 埃及米尼亚西部地区地下水重金属污染的致癌和非致癌健康风险评估
Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal Pub Date : 2022-12-05 DOI: 10.1080/10807039.2022.2153010
A. Abdelhalim, G. Howard, N. Howden, M. Ahmed, E. Ismail
{"title":"Carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health risk assessment of heavy metals contamination in groundwater in the west of Minia area, Egypt","authors":"A. Abdelhalim, G. Howard, N. Howden, M. Ahmed, E. Ismail","doi":"10.1080/10807039.2022.2153010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10807039.2022.2153010","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Groundwater contamination by heavy metals is a worldwide serious issue due to its severe risks to human health. In the present study, a total of 49 groundwater samples were collected and analyzed for eleven trace elements (Al, Cr, Cd, As, Zn, Se, Sn, Ni, Pb, Mn, and Cu) in the west of Minia area, Egypt, to determine groundwater contamination by heavy metals and their impact on groundwater use for drinking and human health as a result. Multivariate statistics, geospatial mapping, and health risk assessment approaches are used to evaluate the potential non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic hazards in the research area and determine both natural and anthropogenic consequences of identified trace elements on local groundwater quality. The heavy metal concentrations (in µg/l) in the groundwater samples were found to be in the following order: Zn (154.5) > Al (40) > As (37.4) > Sn (32) > Cr (28.4) > Hg (25.6) > Cu (21.8) > Cd (16) > Ni (15.4) > Pb (6.5). Heavy metals measurements revealed that As, Hg, and Cu do not meet WHO Guidelines Values, indicating a risk to human health from the consumption of groundwater. Zn > Al > As > Sn > Cr > Hg > Cu > Se > Cd > Ni > Pb was shown to be the order of the mean values of chronic daily heavy metal consumption for new-borns, children, and adults. Continuous oral intake of groundwater loaded with heavy metals could result in carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic concerns, posing serious health dangers to people throughout the life course.","PeriodicalId":13141,"journal":{"name":"Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal","volume":"219 1","pages":"571 - 596"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84389408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Assessing quality of drinking water in the Southern coastal area of Cambodia 评估柬埔寨南部沿海地区的饮用水质量
Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal Pub Date : 2022-11-24 DOI: 10.1080/10807039.2022.2148628
K. Phan, Kyoung-Woong Kim, Sophanith Hoeng, Chheng Y. Seng, Sotha Chek, Huy Sieng
{"title":"Assessing quality of drinking water in the Southern coastal area of Cambodia","authors":"K. Phan, Kyoung-Woong Kim, Sophanith Hoeng, Chheng Y. Seng, Sotha Chek, Huy Sieng","doi":"10.1080/10807039.2022.2148628","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10807039.2022.2148628","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In order to investigate drinking water sources of inhabitants residing in the South coastal area of Cambodia, fifty-nine and twenty-three water samples were collected from Kampot and Kep provinces, respectively. On-site and chemical measurements were performed following USEPA methods. Analytical results revealed that 28.6% of tube well, 28.6% of dug well and 40% of pond were saline. Approximately, 2.6% of tube well and 17.9% of dug well had As > 10 ppb. Likewise, 29.3% of tube well, 28.6% and 60% of pond had Fe > 0.3 mg L−1 whereas 47.5% of tube well, 45.7% of dug well and 20% of pond had Mn > 0.1 mg L−1. Moreover, 2.5% tube well had F- > 1.5 mg L−1; 5.7% of tube well and 14.3% of dug well had NO3 - > 50 mg L−1. This study suggests that some inhabitants residing in the Southern coastal area of Cambodia are exposed to contaminants of health concern (As, F-, NO3 -) and experienced water salinization and esthetic properties through their water consumption. As such, water treatment technologies for removing As, F- and NO3 - are necessary for coastal inhabitants to minimize their potential health risks.","PeriodicalId":13141,"journal":{"name":"Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal","volume":"39 1","pages":"174 - 186"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78918830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A cohort data-based perspective on ecological aspects predicaments in human health 基于队列数据的人类健康生态困境视角
Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal Pub Date : 2022-11-21 DOI: 10.1080/10807039.2022.2146574
Y. Pimpale, Sachin Gupta
{"title":"A cohort data-based perspective on ecological aspects predicaments in human health","authors":"Y. Pimpale, Sachin Gupta","doi":"10.1080/10807039.2022.2146574","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10807039.2022.2146574","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The ecological aspects such as environmental factors, socioeconomic constraints and demographic parameters are one of the key aspects to examine the health benefits of human subject and used as ready reference in eco system modeling. Presently, there are various kinds of deadly diseases and disorders who are liable for affecting the human health and impacting the eco framework of whole world. The virus such as Corona, Swine Flu, omicron and others are one of the best examples for the research community to understand the vulnerability of human health in relation to these unpredictable causes. As per report of world health organization every year, more than 10 million people are affected by such ecological and environmental disbalance. The burden of ecological aspects apparently affecting the working of various organs in human subject. There is a need to understand this ecological model in relation to health of human subjects. In this study, a cohort-based data set of ecological pollutants and physiological signals such as ECG and anthropogenic data of human subjects were extracted from Maharashtra from 2015 to 2021. As per neural network-based hazard ratio was calculated and observed to be deplorable among unhealthy and health categories of human subjects. It has been concluded that the accumulative eco system is responsible for overburden to organs of living beings and policy makers must focus on the facts of study for modern management framework designs.","PeriodicalId":13141,"journal":{"name":"Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal","volume":"4 1","pages":"144 - 156"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91088601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Signature tracing of PCBs congeners in breastmilk of mothers living in selected urban centers of Pakistan 居住在巴基斯坦选定城市中心的母亲母乳中多氯联苯同系物的特征追踪
Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal Pub Date : 2022-11-18 DOI: 10.1080/10807039.2022.2140026
Shagufta Tahir, Abdul Qadir, M. Mumtaz, N. Jamil, M. Baqar, Asad Ullah Saeed, Naeem Khan, R. Halbrook
{"title":"Signature tracing of PCBs congeners in breastmilk of mothers living in selected urban centers of Pakistan","authors":"Shagufta Tahir, Abdul Qadir, M. Mumtaz, N. Jamil, M. Baqar, Asad Ullah Saeed, Naeem Khan, R. Halbrook","doi":"10.1080/10807039.2022.2140026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10807039.2022.2140026","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are banned toxic contaminants according to the Stockholm Convention of persistent pollutants (2001); however, they continue to be prevalent in the environment of Pakistan. The current study evaluates the risk to infants exposed to PCBs in breast milk from urban centers of Pakistan. The ∑14PCB concentrations ranged from ND to 118.36 ng/g lipid weight (l.w.) with a mean of 11.76. ± 4.88 ng/g l.w. These levels are greater than concentrations previously reported from Asia. The quantified PCB profile was also significantly (p < .05) related to the age of the mother while a negative correlation was observed with diet pattern (−0.26), fat content (−0.63), number of children (−0.185), and lactation (−0.19). There were significant differences among test locations with greater bioaccumulation observed in breast milk collected from urbanized Rawalpindi compared to less urbanized Jhang. The calculated estimated daily intakes of dioxin-like PCBs for infants were considerably higher than the recommended daily intake suggested by different organizations. The calculated hazard ratio (HR > 1) indicates health risks to infants in selected study regions.","PeriodicalId":13141,"journal":{"name":"Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal","volume":"69 1","pages":"1 - 18"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83151227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Appraisal of groundwater chemistry, its suitability for crop productivity in Sonipat district and human health risk evaluation Sonipat地区地下水化学评价、对作物生产的适宜性及人体健康风险评价
Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal Pub Date : 2022-11-17 DOI: 10.1080/10807039.2022.2137779
S. Shukla, Ramsha Khan, S. Varshney, R. Ganguly, V. Amiri, C. Hussain, S. Selvam, Venkatramanan Senapathi, B. Ravindran, S. Karuppannan, Prosun Bhattacharya, M. Dotaniya
{"title":"Appraisal of groundwater chemistry, its suitability for crop productivity in Sonipat district and human health risk evaluation","authors":"S. Shukla, Ramsha Khan, S. Varshney, R. Ganguly, V. Amiri, C. Hussain, S. Selvam, Venkatramanan Senapathi, B. Ravindran, S. Karuppannan, Prosun Bhattacharya, M. Dotaniya","doi":"10.1080/10807039.2022.2137779","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10807039.2022.2137779","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The present study was taken with a primary objective to estimate the groundwater quality and its suitability toward sustainable crop productivity in an agriculturally dominant semi-urban area. Elevated levels of nitrate have severe health impacts and affect the human health. Hence, health risks associated with the consumption of nitrate contaminated water were estimated for adults and children in Sonipat district, Haryana. In general, the groundwater was found to be slightly alkaline and moderately hard. The anionic abundance was verified as F– < NO3 – < HCO3 – < SO4 2– < Cl–, whereas, the cationic abundance was verified as Ca2+ < Mg2+ < K+ < Na+. Concentration of nitrate varied from 1.34 mg/L to 565 mg/L, with an average value of 47.6 mg/L, and 46% of the groundwater samples had nitrate concentration of more than 45 mg/L. As per the results of Wilcox plot, only 34% of samples were suitable for crop productivity, whereas 23% of the samples fell in category-II of the permeability index. The non-carcinogenic health risk assessment further suggested that hazard quotient values for nitrate reached as high as 18.35 (children), and 13.57 (adult male), suggesting that health risk degree of children has greater health risk than adults in the study region. Overall results suggest an urgent need for intervention to adopt suitable health risk measures to reduce exposure toward nitrate contaminated drinking water. Moreover, agricultural practices must be improved to increase the crop productivity in the affected areas.","PeriodicalId":13141,"journal":{"name":"Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal","volume":"32 1","pages":"507 - 528"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80599560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
An evaluation of occupant health and indoor environmental quality in university workspaces 大学工作空间居住者健康与室内环境质量评价
Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal Pub Date : 2022-11-17 DOI: 10.1080/10807039.2022.2146573
Mina Moayedi, H. Kamelnia
{"title":"An evaluation of occupant health and indoor environmental quality in university workspaces","authors":"Mina Moayedi, H. Kamelnia","doi":"10.1080/10807039.2022.2146573","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10807039.2022.2146573","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Indoor environmental quality is an important parameter in determining the occupant’s health status in the office environment. To show the important connection between human health and environmental quality, this study was carried out to investigate the relationship between Indoor Air Quality (IAQ), the prevalence of health symptoms, selected personal factors, and office characteristics among university office workers. Six parameters of IAQ, including air temperature, relative air humidity, formaldehyde, particulate matter, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide, were measured by a direct reading instrument. We found eye irritation, dryness, and itching were the most common health symptoms, and the prevalence of weekly dermal, mucosal, psychological, and general symptoms were 60.9%, 75.4%, 60.8%, and 64.7%, respectively. Age, and working experience were associated with general symptoms, while gender was related to dermal symptoms. Furthermore, we observed that the prevalence of health symptoms in 15–30 years old office rooms was significantly higher than others, and health symptoms among employees with 11–20 years of working experience were higher than other age groups. Strategies like using a proper ventilation system, air cleaners, maintaining social distance, humidity, and temperature control can help to improve indoor air quality and protect us from the risk of airborne transmitted diseases.","PeriodicalId":13141,"journal":{"name":"Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal","volume":"4 1","pages":"80 - 102"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85209845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
No clear concerns related to health risks in the European population with low inorganic arsenic exposure (overview) 对低无机砷暴露的欧洲人口的健康风险没有明确的关切(概述)
Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal Pub Date : 2022-11-15 DOI: 10.1080/10807039.2022.2143319
Z. Šlejkovec, T. Bizjak, M. Horvat, I. Falnoga
{"title":"No clear concerns related to health risks in the European population with low inorganic arsenic exposure (overview)","authors":"Z. Šlejkovec, T. Bizjak, M. Horvat, I. Falnoga","doi":"10.1080/10807039.2022.2143319","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10807039.2022.2143319","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract An overview of recent European background inorganic arsenic (iAs) levels and related human health risks is given. The main aim was to summarize and confront the existing concentration data, unresolved low dose-response issues (linearity, nonlinearity, threshold, adaptation, hormesis), and methodological approaches hampered by several uncertainties on several levels. Daily doses are calculated from dietary intake (food, water As content multiplied by intake frequencies) and compared by reverse calculated doses from urine iAs metabolites (iAs + dimethylarsenic acid + monomethylarsonic acid) from human biomonitoring data (both in a range 0.05–0.60 μg kg−1 bw/day for children, adolescents and adults). With data obtained a health risk assessment is performed by existing regulation norms. Several flaws are addressed. For instance, urine DMA used as iAs metabolite is overestimated as its source can also be food items. Further, existing regulation norms (which are under reevaluation by US EPA) are based on a linear dose-response approach valid for high exposure only and highly questionable at low exposure levels. Nevertheless, even by using the conventional approaches with discussed flaws leading to anticipated overestimation, the potential cancer risk was estimated to be of low concern regarding the margins of exposure (MOE) for investigated age groups with average food intake and average iAs concentration in diet (15.3–40.6), supported by MOE calculated from human biomonitoring data (21.4).","PeriodicalId":13141,"journal":{"name":"Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal","volume":"21 1","pages":"245 - 283"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78868790","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Characterization of PM10 bounded trace metals in industrial, traffic, and residential areas in Bac Giang, Vietnam: Environmental and health implications 越南北江工业、交通和居民区中PM10微量金属的特征:环境和健康影响
Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal Pub Date : 2022-11-14 DOI: 10.1080/10807039.2022.2140644
T. H. Bui, Thi Phuong Thao Nguyen
{"title":"Characterization of PM10 bounded trace metals in industrial, traffic, and residential areas in Bac Giang, Vietnam: Environmental and health implications","authors":"T. H. Bui, Thi Phuong Thao Nguyen","doi":"10.1080/10807039.2022.2140644","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10807039.2022.2140644","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract PM10 levels, concentrations of trace metals, source apportionment, and potential health risks exposed to PM10-bound metals via inhalation pathway were investigated at industrial, traffic and residential sites in Bac Giang, Vietnam. The average PM10 concentration exhibited the highest value at the industrial sites, followed by the traffic sites, and the residential sites. The PM10 mass was 1.38 to 3.39 times higher than the National Air Quality Standard (QCVN 05:2013/BTNMT) (150 µg/m3 for 24 h). The concentrations of non-crustal trace elements (As, Cd, Cr, Ni, Pb, V, and Zn) at industrial sites were at a higher level than at the traffic and residential sites. Enrichment Factors analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) were performed for source apportionment of PM10 in Bac Giang. Four potential emission sources including traffic-related emissions, industry, use of pesticides, and coal combustion were identified. The results of pollution load index and health risk assessments showed higher contamination levels and higher non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks posed to children and adults in the vicinity of the industrial sites than the traffic and residential sites. The HQ value for Cr greater than 1 at industrial sites expressed the adverse health effects among humans should be a concern. Further, the health risk of adults exposed to toxic elements via inhalation contact was more pronounced than the children at all sampling sites.","PeriodicalId":13141,"journal":{"name":"Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal","volume":"29 1","pages":"58 - 79"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81059093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluation and prediction of water resources carrying capacity using a multiple linear regression model in Taizhou City, China 基于多元线性回归模型的泰州市水资源承载力评价与预测
Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal Pub Date : 2022-11-14 DOI: 10.1080/10807039.2022.2144998
Ziying Zhang, Zhiwei Yin, Yuyao Chen, Jialun Chen
{"title":"Evaluation and prediction of water resources carrying capacity using a multiple linear regression model in Taizhou City, China","authors":"Ziying Zhang, Zhiwei Yin, Yuyao Chen, Jialun Chen","doi":"10.1080/10807039.2022.2144998","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10807039.2022.2144998","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract To identify the status of the water resources carrying capacity in Taizhou City in China, this article selected 17 evaluation indicators and used principal component analysis to analyze the factors influencing that capacity. Then, an evaluation model was established to assess the water resources carrying capacity in Taizhou City from 2011 to 2020, and a multiple linear regression model was established to predict the total water consumption from 2021 to 2026. The results showed that as Taizhou has constructed a water-saving society, its water resources carrying capacity has gradually increased. As a result, the total water consumption is predicted to show a downward trend from 2021 to 2026. Based on the evaluation and prediction results of water resources carrying capacity, some water resources management and control measures for Taizhou were proposed, such as strengthening strict water resources management, upgrading to the water consumption structure and securing the ecological flow of downstream rivers. This research can provide scientific support for the rational development and utilization of water resources in the Taizhou City and can also set an example to similar studies over the world.","PeriodicalId":13141,"journal":{"name":"Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal","volume":"31 1","pages":"553 - 570"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90191912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Dynamic prediction and impact factors analysis of ecological risk in Chinese farming-pastoral ecotone 中国农牧交错带生态风险动态预测及影响因素分析
Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal Pub Date : 2022-11-11 DOI: 10.1080/10807039.2022.2143318
Jixuan Yan, Guang Li, Guangping Qi, Xiangdong Yao, Hong Qiao, Miao Song, Pengcheng Gao, Cai-xia Huang, Jie Li, Qihong Da
{"title":"Dynamic prediction and impact factors analysis of ecological risk in Chinese farming-pastoral ecotone","authors":"Jixuan Yan, Guang Li, Guangping Qi, Xiangdong Yao, Hong Qiao, Miao Song, Pengcheng Gao, Cai-xia Huang, Jie Li, Qihong Da","doi":"10.1080/10807039.2022.2143318","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10807039.2022.2143318","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Chinese Farming-pastoral Ecotones (CFPE) is the largest ecologically fragile zone in China. The dynamic prediction and impact factors analysis of landscape ecological risk based on LUCC have an important significance for effectively resolving ecological and environmental risk . In this paper, CA-Markov and BRT models were used to quantitatively analyze dynamic change, evolution characteristics, and influencing factors of landscape ecological risk.The results showed that: (1) LUCC types significantly changed from 2000 to 2040, especially in the bareland regions, which decreased by 1.64 times from 2000 to 2020, mainly transferred out to grassland and farmland. (2) The overall ecological risk showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing. The highest ecological risk regions reached an area of 192,000 km2 in 2020 and decreased by 1.78 times from 2020 to 2040, these areas showed high spatial correlation and aggregation. (3) Topographical, climate, and socioeconomic factors had certain impacts on landscape ecological risk. Elevation (24.4%) was the most important factor affecting ecological risk, followed by temperature (19.1%), precipitation (15.7%), slope (13.6%) and GDP (8.4%). The study not only proposes a novel method regarding prediction and quantitative assessment of ecological risk based on influencing factors, but also provides a more precise and specific decision-making basis for sustainable development of ecological safety and social economic in the CFPE.","PeriodicalId":13141,"journal":{"name":"Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":"123 - 143"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85357960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
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