Evaluation and prediction of water resources carrying capacity using a multiple linear regression model in Taizhou City, China

Abstract

Abstract To identify the status of the water resources carrying capacity in Taizhou City in China, this article selected 17 evaluation indicators and used principal component analysis to analyze the factors influencing that capacity. Then, an evaluation model was established to assess the water resources carrying capacity in Taizhou City from 2011 to 2020, and a multiple linear regression model was established to predict the total water consumption from 2021 to 2026. The results showed that as Taizhou has constructed a water-saving society, its water resources carrying capacity has gradually increased. As a result, the total water consumption is predicted to show a downward trend from 2021 to 2026. Based on the evaluation and prediction results of water resources carrying capacity, some water resources management and control measures for Taizhou were proposed, such as strengthening strict water resources management, upgrading to the water consumption structure and securing the ecological flow of downstream rivers. This research can provide scientific support for the rational development and utilization of water resources in the Taizhou City and can also set an example to similar studies over the world.