Global Commodity Issues eJournal最新文献_第5页

Global Oil Market: Main Trends 全球石油市场:主要趋势

Global Commodity Issues eJournal Pub Date : 2017-07-13 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3001766

Yuri Bobylev

引用次数: 0

Strengthening Ghana’s Downstream Petroleum Deregulation Regime: A Review of the 2016 CBOD Industry Report. 加强加纳下游石油放松管制制度:2016年CBOD行业报告回顾

Global Commodity Issues eJournal Pub Date : 2017-05-11 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2966929

G. Ofosu-Peasah, I. Ackah

引用次数: 0

¿Es El Mercado De Metales Eficiente? (Is the Metals Market Efficient?) 金属市场是否有效?(金属市场是否有效?)

Global Commodity Issues eJournal Pub Date : 2017-04-10 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2956657

D. Osorio, Girón Luis Eduardo, Lya Sierra

{"title":"¿Es El Mercado De Metales Eficiente? (Is the Metals Market Efficient?)","authors":"D. Osorio, Girón Luis Eduardo, Lya Sierra","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2956657","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2956657","url":null,"abstract":"Spanish Abstract: La prediccion de los precios de las materias primas es importante por su impacto a nivel macroeconomico en las naciones que dependen de su comercio internacional, asi mismo tiene importancia financiera para quienes negocian sus futuros en bolsa. Este trabajo propone evaluar la hipotesis de eficiencia en el sentido debil en el mercado de metales, la cual argumenta que un mercado eficiente no es susceptible de prediccion de precios. Para este proposito se implementaron metodos de caminata aleatoria. Se encontraron materias primas persistentemente ineficientes durante el periodo de evaluacion de 1992 a 2015, asi como que algunas materias primas fluctuan entre periodos de eficiencia y no eficiencia. \u0000English Abstract: The prediction of raw material prices is important due to its macroeconomic impact in the nations that depend on their international trade, it is as well financially important to those who negotiate futures in the stock market. This work proposes to evaluate the efficiency hypothesis in the weak sense of the metals market, which argues that an efficient market is not susceptible to price prediction. To carry out this purpose, methods of random walks were put into effect. Persistently inefficient raw materials during the evaluation period from 1992 to 2015 were found, as well as that some raw materials fluctuate between periods of efficiency and inefficiency.","PeriodicalId":12584,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75725629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Commodity Connectedness 商品的连通性

Global Commodity Issues eJournal Pub Date : 2017-03-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3038826

F. Diebold, L. Liu, K. Yilmaz

引用次数: 58

What Relationships between Commodities and CDS Indices? Evidence from Archimedean Copulas 大宗商品与CDS指数之间的关系?证据来自阿基米德科普拉斯

Global Commodity Issues eJournal Pub Date : 2017-02-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2924327

Samar Zlitni, Ahmed Ghorbel, W. Khoufi

引用次数: 0

Oil Prices and the Global Economy 油价与全球经济

Global Commodity Issues eJournal Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781475572360.001

Rabah Arezki, D. Laxton, A. Matsumoto, A. Nurbekyan, Hou Wang, Jiaxiong Yao

引用次数: 35

Optimal Sourcing with Ambiguously Correlated Suppliers 模糊关联供应商的最优采购

Global Commodity Issues eJournal Pub Date : 2016-10-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2851228

Ming Zhao, Nickolas K. Freeman

{"title":"Optimal Sourcing with Ambiguously Correlated Suppliers","authors":"Ming Zhao, Nickolas K. Freeman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2851228","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2851228","url":null,"abstract":"We present a comprehensive study for the optimal sourcing strategy of a firm where the market selling price is endogenously determined by the total output and suppliers face correlated disruptions that are difficult to estimate. We develop a distributionally robust (DR) model for a single group of correlated suppliers that maximizes the firms' expected profit under the worst-case disruption distribution. Our model only requires the marginal disruption probabilities and accommodates both yield and capacity uncertainty. We derive simple expressions that allow the firm to eliminate less reliable suppliers on the combined basis of cost and reliability when yield is uncertain. In the case capacity uncertainty, we show the cheapest supplier influences the orders placed with more reliable suppliers, if the cheapest supplier receives no order. We incorporate the DR model in a more general model where the available suppliers are grouped based on common sources of vulnerability. This model accommodates cases where correlations exist between all or no suppliers as special cases. The model allows decision-makers to tailor the sourcing strategy based on their risk tolerance. We introduce new measures for supplier efficiency that accounts for both supplier costs and reliabilities. These measures are incorporated in a solution procedure that provides the optimal supplier selection and order allocation. The measure of efficiency serves as an extension of the commonly cited insight that \"cost is an order qualifier and reliability is an order winner\" for the case of correlated suppliers. We end the paper by studying the impact of buyer competition on the optimal sourcing strategy. We present equilibrium solutions for cases of symmetric information and study the information sharing behavior of a better-informed firm under information asymmetry.","PeriodicalId":12584,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85337526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Nonrenewable Resources, Income Inequality and Per Capita GDP: An Empirical Analysis 不可再生资源、收入不平等与人均GDP:一个实证分析

Global Commodity Issues eJournal Pub Date : 2016-09-22 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7831

A. Scognamillo, Gianluca Mele, L. Sensini

{"title":"Nonrenewable Resources, Income Inequality and Per Capita GDP: An Empirical Analysis","authors":"A. Scognamillo, Gianluca Mele, L. Sensini","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-7831","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-7831","url":null,"abstract":"This analysis examines the relationship between nonrenewable resource dependence, economic growth and income inequality. It uses a two-equation system in which the Gini index and GDP per capita are the dependent variables and the stock of nonrenewable resources as a share of national wealth -- i.e. resource dependence -- is the independent variable. Using a dataset that includes information on 43 countries from 1980 to 2012, this paper estimates several model specifications in order to check the robustness of the results under different assumptions and to account for income-group-related heterogeneity among countries. The baseline model provides strong evidence that natural resource dependence is negatively correlated with both per capita GDP and the Gini index; in other words, resource dependence is associated with lower income levels, but also with a more equal distribution of income. Interestingly, however, after controlling for country income group, the sign and magnitude of these relationships appear to become dependent on national-level structural characteristics. Among higher-income countries, greater nonrenewable natural resource dependence is associated with lower income inequality, while there is no statistically significant correlation with GDP per capita. Among the lower-income group, greater dependence on nonrenewable natural resources is associated with both higher levels of income inequality and lower per capita GDP. Further analysis focusing on a subsample of non-renewable resource rich countries confirms these findings.","PeriodicalId":12584,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89683325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 14

Swing Oil Production and the Role of Credit: A Synthesis of Best-in-Class Research Views 摇摆石油生产和信贷的作用:一流研究观点的综合

Global Commodity Issues eJournal Pub Date : 2016-06-13 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2795183

H. Till

{"title":"Swing Oil Production and the Role of Credit: A Synthesis of Best-in-Class Research Views","authors":"H. Till","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2795183","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2795183","url":null,"abstract":"In order to understand swing production and the role of credit, this working paper will briefly cover the following five topics: (1) The paper begins with the classic definition of a swing producer and notes that North American shale producers would not normally fit this strict definition. (2) Next the article argues that advances in well-production estimation techniques naturally led to an explosion of creative financing solutions for investing in shale. As a result, the appetite of credit markets for taking on shale-production risk is now the key driver of the outlook for North American oil production. (3) The paper then proposes that we might be able to refer to shale producers as swing producers as long as we loosen the definition of swing producer to be one in which there are fairly uniform production decisions that take place over a 6-month to 12-month timeframe. And importantly, the outlook for this year’s U.S. oil production declines is likely key to whether global oil markets rebalance or not. (4) Next the article notes that while our short-term focus is properly on the credit cycle, at some point it may be that geological constraints will come back into play and the baton would thereby pass back to the Middle East Gulf oil producers as the undisputed swing producers. (5) Because the timing of the recovery of oil prices is so uncertain, the paper concludes that an investor should only express a bullish view on oil prices within the context of a balanced asset allocation.","PeriodicalId":12584,"journal":{"name":"Global Commodity Issues eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72905623","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

The Development of Organized Commodity Exchanges in Africa: An Economic Analysis 非洲有组织商品交易的发展:经济分析

Global Commodity Issues eJournal Pub Date : 2016-05-13 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-46889-1_26

H. Zimmermann, Marco Haase

引用次数: 4