摇摆石油生产和信贷的作用:一流研究观点的综合

H. Till
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引用次数: 1

摘要

为了理解摇摆生产和信贷的作用,本文将简要介绍以下五个主题:(1)本文从摇摆生产者的经典定义开始,并指出北美页岩生产商通常不符合这一严格定义。(2)接下来,文章认为井产量估算技术的进步自然导致了页岩投资的创造性融资解决方案的爆炸式增长。因此,信贷市场对页岩油生产风险的偏好现在是北美石油生产前景的关键驱动因素。(3)本文提出,我们可以将页岩油生产商称为摇摆生产商,只要我们将摇摆生产商的定义放宽为一个在6个月至12个月的时间框架内进行相当统一的生产决策的生产商。重要的是,今年美国石油产量下降的前景可能是全球石油市场是否再平衡的关键。(4)接下来,文章指出,虽然我们的短期重点是信贷周期,但在某种程度上,地质限制可能会重新发挥作用,接力棒将因此回到中东海湾石油生产国,成为无可争议的摇摆生产国。(5)由于油价回升的时间是如此的不确定,本文得出结论,投资者应该在平衡资产配置的背景下表达对油价的看涨观点。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Swing Oil Production and the Role of Credit: A Synthesis of Best-in-Class Research Views
In order to understand swing production and the role of credit, this working paper will briefly cover the following five topics: (1) The paper begins with the classic definition of a swing producer and notes that North American shale producers would not normally fit this strict definition. (2) Next the article argues that advances in well-production estimation techniques naturally led to an explosion of creative financing solutions for investing in shale. As a result, the appetite of credit markets for taking on shale-production risk is now the key driver of the outlook for North American oil production. (3) The paper then proposes that we might be able to refer to shale producers as swing producers as long as we loosen the definition of swing producer to be one in which there are fairly uniform production decisions that take place over a 6-month to 12-month timeframe. And importantly, the outlook for this year’s U.S. oil production declines is likely key to whether global oil markets rebalance or not. (4) Next the article notes that while our short-term focus is properly on the credit cycle, at some point it may be that geological constraints will come back into play and the baton would thereby pass back to the Middle East Gulf oil producers as the undisputed swing producers. (5) Because the timing of the recovery of oil prices is so uncertain, the paper concludes that an investor should only express a bullish view on oil prices within the context of a balanced asset allocation.
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