Oil Prices and the Global Economy

Rabah Arezki, D. Laxton, A. Matsumoto, A. Nurbekyan, Hou Wang, Jiaxiong Yao
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引用次数: 35

Abstract

This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
油价与全球经济
本文提出了一个简单的石油市场宏观经济模型。该模型结合了石油供应的特征,如枯竭、内生石油勘探和开采,以及石油需求的特征,如新兴市场经济体需求的长期增长、使用效率和内生需求反应。除其他外,该模型提供了一个有用的分析框架,用于探索以下影响:世界GDP增长的变化;石油使用效率的变化;以及石油供应的变化。尽管目前的页岩油产量比传统石油更容易受到价格的影响,但我们的分析表明,在油价长期低迷的时代之后,油价很可能会超过其长期上涨趋势。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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