¿Es El Mercado De Metales Eficiente? (Is the Metals Market Efficient?)

Abstract

Spanish Abstract: La prediccion de los precios de las materias primas es importante por su impacto a nivel macroeconomico en las naciones que dependen de su comercio internacional, asi mismo tiene importancia financiera para quienes negocian sus futuros en bolsa. Este trabajo propone evaluar la hipotesis de eficiencia en el sentido debil en el mercado de metales, la cual argumenta que un mercado eficiente no es susceptible de prediccion de precios. Para este proposito se implementaron metodos de caminata aleatoria. Se encontraron materias primas persistentemente ineficientes durante el periodo de evaluacion de 1992 a 2015, asi como que algunas materias primas fluctuan entre periodos de eficiencia y no eficiencia. English Abstract: The prediction of raw material prices is important due to its macroeconomic impact in the nations that depend on their international trade, it is as well financially important to those who negotiate futures in the stock market. This work proposes to evaluate the efficiency hypothesis in the weak sense of the metals market, which argues that an efficient market is not susceptible to price prediction. To carry out this purpose, methods of random walks were put into effect. Persistently inefficient raw materials during the evaluation period from 1992 to 2015 were found, as well as that some raw materials fluctuate between periods of efficiency and inefficiency.