{"title":"Forecasting forest-related political decisions in a climate-constrained world – The remuneration of forest ecosystem services in Germany","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103231","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103231","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Political systems are under increasing pressures to respond to the impacts of climate change. We employ a numerical policy negotiation forecast model and apply it to forest-related political decisions on remunerating forest ecosystem services. Our results predict that German forest carbon sinks will be partially remunerated by government payment systems as will nature conservation efforts and climate resilient forest management. Our predictions indicate that there is substantial remaining upward pressure on each of these issues to go beyond present regulations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934124000844/pdfft?md5=016773fee5743fad650e00e772570aee&pid=1-s2.0-S1389934124000844-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142098565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Balancing greenwashing risks and forest carbon sequestration benefits: A simulation model linking formal and voluntary carbon markets","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103317","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103317","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Voluntary carbon markets (VCMs) offer energy-intensive firms a cost-effective means to reduce carbon mitigation expenses through promoting forest conservation. However, concerns about greenwashing may deter firms from using these options, which are susceptible to illegal forest harvesting. This study examines whether firms purchasing carbon credits from forestry-based communities can help strengthen forest conservation, mitigate project risks, improve environmental outcomes, and reduce abatement costs. We examine a large Indian steel firm, with an annual production capacity of 4 million tons, issuing green bonds to fund afforestation in Himalayan forest communities. Using industry-level average emissions, abatement costs, and output data for Indian firms, we develop a dynamic optimization model to determine optimal abatement strategies, considering the risk of future forest carbon loss from VCMs. The model, utilizing examples and data from existing carbon sequestration programs in the Himalayan states, offers insights into promoting high-integrity VCMs through formal emission market linkage. Findings suggest that firms' involvement in compliance emissions markets provides an alternative route to accessing affordable carbon credits when abatement costs are high. Additionally, engaging in the VCM reduces expenses related to emission reduction targets. However, with elevated greenwashing risks, firms reduce their use of green bonds in VCMs. Participation in the VCM positively reinforces forest conservation and enhances environmental services when greenwashing risks are absent, further lowering carbon mitigation costs. To enhance VCM integrity, further research is needed on how community conservation norms influence illegal harvesting.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142089650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The forest-water-nexus: A narrative construction of the (ir-)relevance of cooperation","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103318","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103318","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Interlinkages between forest and water resources are changing with global warming, leading to an increased likelihood of severe disturbances such as floods and droughts. In order to develop responses to these changing interlinkages and their effects on local communities and ecosystems, scholars propose to increase interactions across the forest and water sectors. In Germany, however, the two respective sectors have been observed as institutionally and ideationally fragmented, showing very few signs of cross-sectoral cooperation. As local actors are most directly affected by global warming and struggle to adapt to its consequences, we argue that cross-sectoral cooperation is also relevant at the local scale. Against this background, it is our aim to investigate the local narrative constructions of the (ir)relevance of cooperation across the forest and water sectors. Based on semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions in six case study areas, we identify eight narratives which range from irrelevance (4), via partial relevance (2), to relevance of cooperation (2). Additionally, we elucidate a disinterest in cooperation among local water actors, compared to a narrative of urgency and fatalism among forest actors. Disinterest and urgency, however, furthermore differ regionally: Disinterest in cooperation is predominant in water abundant regions, whereas urgency is predominantly observed in regions of water scarcity. We contribute to conceptualizing disinterest as the rejection of a (common) problem possibly related to defend one's turf, and related both the urgency and fatalism narratives to the high affectedness within the forest sector.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934124001722/pdfft?md5=ca2a9bf8a5908ece9fefeb6d05a89712&pid=1-s2.0-S1389934124001722-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142089651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Are consumers “green” enthusiasts or skeptics? Evidence from nontimber forest products","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103302","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103302","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In recent years, in response to consumers' increasing demand for “greener” products due to growing environmental awareness, more and more businesses have turned to eco-labels to assert the environmental benefits of their products or services. However, it remains unclear how consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) varies with different types of eco-labeling, especially concerning food products harvested from forests. In this study, we employ discrete choice modeling to uncover consumers' preferences for “green” maple syrup—syrup made with sap tapped from sustainably managed forests—under four eco-labels: self-claimed, bird-friendly, verified by a voluntary conservation program, and certified by a third-party. Our findings reveal that the WTPs for “green” maple syrup under eco-labels are higher than that for organic maple syrup, except for the third-party certified label. One plausible explanation is that some consumers may perceive sustainability certification as greenwashing, leading them to be skeptical of the claimed benefits.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142058314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An environmental Kuznets curve for global forests: An application of the mi-lasso estimator","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103304","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103304","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this study, we employ a Moran's <span><math><mi>i</mi></math></span> based Lasso (Mi-Lasso) methodology to address the spatial dependence of an unspecified functional form, investigating the association between a country's economic growth and the rate of deforestation. Our aim is to explore the existence of a forestry environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). Our approach to handling spatial dependence overcomes limitations identified in existing EKC literature. We estimate a series of cross-sectional data models spanning the period from 1990 to 2020 for 146 countries. Our findings indicate a non-linear relationship, revealing a change peak rate of deforestation over time. Additionally, we observe that the income threshold at which the deforestation rate begins to decrease changes over time with differences observed between model specifications. Crucially, our results highlight that failing to account for spatial dependence leads to a significant absolute upward bias in ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates of income and worse model fit.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934124001588/pdfft?md5=24ed1e5dd57b115acef4f70cc7711d1c&pid=1-s2.0-S1389934124001588-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142049479","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A preliminary Coasian proposal for tree auditing via planning control of tree farms","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103315","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103315","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The emergence of green consumerism has contributed to the rise of farms which hold out as tree planters for absorbing CO<sub>2</sub>. A preliminary survey of the literature on tree farms and town planning practice of Western Australia found that there is scepticism regarding the credibility of these tree farms and an absence of an information flow system that rewards the credible private tree farmers. From a Coasian neoinstitutional economic (NIE) perspective, there is therefore the potential for devising rules that can enlarge an existing market or industry. This short commentary maps the current information flow system in the tree planting industry and proposes an improved system based on voluntary disclosure of tree planting data by tree farms in the planning permission system.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142050217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Fostering forest commoning for rural livelihoods: Case of gram sabha federations in Vidarbha, India","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103292","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103292","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this article, we explore how “commoning” plays a pivotal role in the collaborative and democratic management of forests to promote sustainable rural livelihoods. Commoning entails the everyday practices and social relations that enable people to come together, share, and act collectively. While existing literature offers insights into the institutional designs that underpin long-term collaborative management systems, less is known about the process of commoning. We seek to address this gap by asking, what social practices and relational arrangements contribute to the commoning of forests? And, how do these social practices and relational arrangements influence the creation of governance mechanisms that support forest livelihoods? To tackle these questions, we analyze the case studies of forest collectives called <em>gram sabha</em> federations in the Vidarbha region of Maharashtra, India. Through our case studies, we demonstrate how social relationships facilitate key processes of experimentation, adaptation, autonomy, and inclusiveness. These processes enable collectives to explore innovative and unconventional networks to navigate uncertainties. Our findings reveal that by leveraging their social relations, communities enhance their autonomy while reducing their reliance on the traditional colonialist and capitalist practices of the state and the market. In doing so, they forge a path towards sustainable rural livelihoods grounded in collective empowerment and democratic decision-making.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142049539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Identifying optimal locations for biochar production facilities to reduce wildfire risk and bolster rural economies: A New Mexico case study","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103313","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103313","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Many land managers throughout the Intermountain West practice periodic thinning of woody biomass to reduce forest stand density and thereby reduce the risk of high severity wildfire. Pyrolyzing biomass wastes, such as slash from thinning, into biochar can help sequester carbon to mitigate climate change and improve soil health. However, there are insufficient biochar facilities to process the amount of woody biomass available from thinning throughout the Intermountain West. By presenting a case of New Mexico, this study provides a spatially explicit framework, which explains relationships among variables based on their spatial dimension, to utilize a variety of factors such as biomass availability, wildfire risks, markets, soil conditions, and road networks to identify optimal location(s) for new biochar production facilities. Several locations suitable for biochar production facilities have been identified, but the number needed depends on facility capacity and feedstock hauling distances. Findings from this study can help establish several medium-size or a single centralized biochar production facility(ies) in the region. Furthermore, establishment of biochar production facilities can incentivize forestry contractors and landowners to expedite thinning operations in densely overstocked forests of New Mexico. Finally, it can serve as a model that other regions in the Intermountain West can use to facilitate scaling of biochar facilities and production.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141990555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Projected effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on global forest products markets","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103301","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103301","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study provided an insight into the projected short-term (<10 years) and long-term (next 10 to 30 years) effects of the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine on global forest products trade and associated markets. The assessment was conducted by comparing the projected outcomes from the Global Forest Products Market (GFPM) model for a business-as-usual reference (no invasion) scenario and an alternate scenario representing the current trade sanctions for Russian wood products trade by several major partner countries, and the potential trade disruption in Ukraine due to their military operations, during the 2021–2025 period, and no such trade restrictions thereafter assuming the Russian invasion ends by that time. Results indicate a considerable projected short-term disruption in the Russian, Ukrainian, and the global wood products sector in terms of higher prices of industrial roundwood and finished wood products (up to 3%) and altered production, consumption and trade displacement for wood products. However, in the long run, a lower overall disruption is projected as Russian markets for industrial roundwood and sawnwood start to recover and the global markets begin to converge to pre-invasion levels. The analysis also projects that Russian markets for wood-based panels and paper and paperboard and Ukrainian markets for paper and paperboard do not recover within the next 30 years, suggesting a likely permanent structural change in markets of these wood product groups. These findings suggest several economic and environmental implications for the forest products sector in Russia, Ukraine and the rest of the world in the near- and long-term.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141915335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Improving models of wood products plant locations with restricted access data","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103303","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103303","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The United States is the world's largest producer and consumer of forest products, but due to industry aggregation and data suppression for privacy reasons, we have limited knowledge of determinants of wood products manufacturing establishments' locations. We use restricted-access microdata to explore location determinants of several disaggregated employer wood products industry groups and compare results to the aggregated employer and non-employer categories in the wood products subsector. Results suggest important but differing relationships between restricted access variables and establishment counts at the local level. While trucking employment is consistently important, the significance and sign of clustering variables, electricity costs, and production wages vary depending on the specific activity. More specifically, Sawmills and Other Wood Products both exhibit within- and across-industry group externalities of agglomeration. However, not all wood product industry groups interact with one another in the same way. Veneer, Plywood, and Engineered Wood establishments show evidence of only benefiting from locating near downstream manufacturers while Other Mill Work establishments benefit from clustering near other similar establishments. The results should be useful to policy makers as they formulate ways to best position natural resources to contribute sustainable jobs to the local region and prevent future industry bottlenecks.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141891953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}