Fire Ecology最新文献

{"title":"Forest thinning and prescribed burning treatments reduce wildfire severity and buffer the impacts of severe fire weather","authors":"Emily G. Brodie, Eric E. Knapp, Wesley R. Brooks, Stacy A. Drury, Martin W. Ritchie","doi":"10.1186/s42408-023-00241-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-023-00241-z","url":null,"abstract":"The capacity of forest fuel treatments to moderate the behavior and severity of subsequent wildfires depends on weather and fuel conditions at the time of burning. However, in-depth evaluations of how treatments perform are limited because encounters between wildfires and areas with extensive pre-fire data are rare. Here, we took advantage of a 1200-ha randomized and replicated experiment that burned almost entirely in a subsequent wildfire under a wide range of weather conditions. We compared the impacts of four fuel treatments on fire severity, including two thin-only, a thin-burn, a burn-only, and an untreated control. We evaluated four fire severity metrics—tree mortality, average bole char height, percent crown volume consumed (PCVC), and percent crown volume affected (PCVA)—and leveraged data from pre-fire surface and canopy fuels to better understand the mechanisms driving differences in wildfire severity among treatments and how they changed with fire weather. We found strong mitigating effects of treatments on fire behavior and tree mortality, despite 20 years having elapsed since mechanical thinning and 10 years since the second entry of prescribed fire. The thin-burn treatment resulted in the lowest fire severity across all four metrics and the untreated control the highest. All four fire severity metrics were positively associated with pre-fire canopy and surface fuel loads, with the exception that PCVC (a fire severity metric related to crown fire behavior) was not associated with surface fuel load. The fire weather conditions under which fuel treatment was most effective varied among fire severity metrics. Fuel treatment benefit was maximized at intermediate burning index values for tree mortality, intermediate to high burning index values for PCVA, and high burning index for bole char height and PCVC. We conclude that reducing canopy bulk density via mechanical thinning treatments can help to limit crown fire behavior for 20 years or more. However, reducing surface fuels is necessary to limit scorching and the total crown impacts associated with tree mortality. Further, while fuel treatment effectiveness may decline under the most severe fire weather conditions for fire severity metrics associated with tree mortality, it is maximized under severe fire weather conditions for fire severity metrics associated with crown fire behavior (bole charring and torching). Our results provide strong evidence for the use of fuel treatments to mitigate fire behavior and resulting fire severity even under extreme fire weather conditions.","PeriodicalId":12273,"journal":{"name":"Fire Ecology","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139764191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental health of wildland firefighters: a scoping review","authors":"M. Bryan Held, Miranda Rose Ragland, Sage Wood, Amelia Pearson, Seth Wayne Pearson, Olivia Chenevert, Rachel Marie Granberg, Robin Michelle Verble","doi":"10.1186/s42408-023-00235-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-023-00235-x","url":null,"abstract":"Wildland firefighters are likely to experience heightened risks to safety, health, and overall well-being as changing climates increase the frequency and intensity of exposure to natural hazards. Working at the intersection of natural resource management and emergency response, wildland firefighters have multidimensional careers that often incorporate elements from disparate fields to accomplish the tasks of suppressing and preventing wildfires. Thus, they have distinctly different job duties than other firefighters (e.g., structural firefighters) and experience environmental health risks that are unique to their work. We conducted a systematic scoping review of scientific literature that addresses wildland firefighter environmental health. Our goal was to identify studies that specifically addressed wildland firefighters (as opposed to firefighters in a broader sense), geographic and demographic trends, sample sizes, patterns in analysis, and common categories of research. Most studies have clustered in a few highly developed countries, and in the United States within California and Idaho. Many studies fail to consider the impact that demographic factors may have on their results. The number of studies published annually is increasing and themes are broadening to include social and psychological topics; however, most authors in the field have published an average of < 3 articles. We identify three areas that we believe are imminent priorities for researchers and policymakers, including a lack of diversity in study geography and demography, a need for more complex and interactive analyses of exposure, and prioritization of wildland firefighters in research funding and focus.","PeriodicalId":12273,"journal":{"name":"Fire Ecology","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139689004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Landscape controls on fuel moisture variability in fire-prone heathland and peatland landscapes","authors":"Kerryn Little, Laura J Graham, Mike Flannigan, Claire M Belcher, Nicholas Kettridge","doi":"10.1186/s42408-024-00248-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-024-00248-0","url":null,"abstract":"Cross-landscape fuel moisture content is highly variable but not considered in existing fire danger assessments. Capturing fuel moisture complexity and its associated controls is critical for understanding wildfire behavior and danger in emerging fire-prone environments that are influenced by local heterogeneity. This is particularly true for temperate heathland and peatland landscapes that exhibit spatial differences in the vulnerability of their globally important carbon stores to wildfire. Here we quantified the range of variability in the live and dead fuel moisture of Calluna vulgaris across a temperate fire-prone landscape through an intensive fuel moisture sampling campaign conducted in the North Yorkshire Moors, UK. We also evaluated the landscape (soil texture, canopy age, aspect, and slope) and micrometeorological (temperature, relative humidity, vapor pressure deficit, and windspeed) drivers of landscape fuel moisture variability for temperate heathlands and peatlands for the first time. We observed high cross-landscape fuel moisture variation, which created a spatial discontinuity in the availability of live fuels for wildfire spread (fuel moisture < 65%) and vulnerability of the organic layer to smoldering combustion (fuel moisture < 250%). This heterogeneity was most important in spring, which is also the peak wildfire season in these temperate ecosystems. Landscape and micrometeorological factors explained up to 72% of spatial fuel moisture variation and were season- and fuel-layer-dependent. Landscape factors predominantly controlled spatial fuel moisture content beyond modifying local micrometeorology. Accounting for direct landscape–fuel moisture relationships could improve fuel moisture estimates, as existing estimates derived solely from micrometeorological observations will exclude the underlying influence of landscape characteristics. We hypothesize that differences in soil texture, canopy age, and aspect play important roles across the fuel layers examined, with the main differences in processes arising between live, dead, and surface/ground fuels. We also highlight the critical role of fuel phenology in assessing landscape fuel moisture variations in temperate environments. Understanding the mechanisms driving fuel moisture variability opens opportunities to develop locally robust fuel models for input into wildfire danger rating systems, adding versatility to wildfire danger assessments as a management tool.","PeriodicalId":12273,"journal":{"name":"Fire Ecology","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139578437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Using witness trees as pyro-indicators to depict past fire environments across the eastern United States","authors":"Gregory J. Nowacki, Melissa A. Thomas-Van Gundy","doi":"10.1186/s42408-024-00247-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-024-00247-1","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding past fire environments is vitally important for applying silvicultural treatments, which often include prescribed burning to restore fire-dependent ecosystems. We have developed a novel method by which witness trees can be used as pyro-indicators to map past fire environments. The stepwise process first involves partitioning witness trees into two classes, pyrophobic and pyrophilic, based on their known ecophysiological traits. Pyrophilic percentages are then calculated at survey corners by dividing the number of pyrophilic trees by the total number of trees. Next, statistical spatial interpolation is applied to this point-based data set to produce a continuous response surface of pyrophilic percentages. The resultant maps capture gradients of fire importance across the pre-European-settlement landscape, which can be coupled with historic fire regime maps, thus providing additional information for better understanding and explaining past fire environments. We have applied this technique to various available witness-tree databases across the eastern United States. This paper serves as a compendium of our collective work to date.","PeriodicalId":12273,"journal":{"name":"Fire Ecology","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139578064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Midwest prairie management practices benefit the non-target prairie crayfish","authors":"Caitlin C. Bloomer, Christopher M. Miller, Robert J. DiStefano, Christopher A. Taylor","doi":"10.1186/s42408-023-00243-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-023-00243-x","url":null,"abstract":"Prescribed burning is used to duplicate natural, pre-settlement prairie successional processes. It is an essential and commonly used tool to promote and protect biodiversity and enhance ecosystem function in tallgrass prairie remnants throughout the midwestern United States. The responses to prescribed burns vary widely among faunal groups. We conducted the first study into the response of the prairie crayfish (Procambarus gracilis Bundy) to periodic prescribed burns and other management activities in a tallgrass prairie in Northern Missouri. This species relies on natural and restored prairies across its broad distribution, but little is known on how to actively manage these populations. We found that the density of the prairie crayfish burrows did not vary in response to the burn regime; however, other management activities like the installation of artificial ponds for amphibians and reptiles were directly benefitting this species. Observations indicate that prairie crayfish may also show positive associations with warm-season grass stands and vegetation management should be further explored. The current prairie management practices for vegetation, quail, and herpetofauna are having beneficial or neutral effects on non-target taxa like the prairie crayfish. The value of crayfish and their burrows in prairies is well-established. Conservation biologists should continue to examine how burrowing crayfish are responding to management practices for other taxa to explicitly manage and promote these populations.","PeriodicalId":12273,"journal":{"name":"Fire Ecology","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139578067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Guiding principles for transdisciplinary and transformative fire research","authors":"Kelsey Copes-Gerbitz, Ira J. Sutherland, Sarah Dickson-Hoyle, Jennifer N. Baron, Pablo Gonzalez-Moctezuma, Morgan A. Crowley, Katherine A. Kitchens, Tahia Devisscher, Judith Burr","doi":"10.1186/s42408-023-00244-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-023-00244-w","url":null,"abstract":"Managing landscape fire is a complex challenge because it is simultaneously necessary for, and increasingly poses a risk to, societies and ecosystems worldwide. This challenge underscores the need for transformative change in the way societies live with and manage fire. While researchers have the potential to act as agents of transformative change, in practice, the ability to affect change is often constrained by siloed and biased expertise, rigid decision-making institutions, and increasingly vulnerable social-ecological systems where urgent rather than long-term solutions are prioritized. Addressing these challenges requires more holistic and equitable approaches to fire research that promote new models of transdisciplinary thinking, collaboration, and practice. To advance transformative solutions to this complex fire challenge, we propose four principles for conducting transdisciplinary fire research: (1) embrace complexity, (2) promote diverse ways of knowing fire, (3) foster transformative learning, and (4) practice problem-centered research. These principles emerged from our experience as a group of early-career researchers who are embedded within and motivated by today’s complex fire challenge within British Columbia (BC), Canada. In this forum piece, we first describe the four principles and then apply the principles to two case studies: (1) BC, a settler-colonial context experiencing increased size, severity, and impacts of wildfires, and (2) our ECR discussion group, a space of collective learning and transformation. In doing so, we present a unique contribution that builds on existing efforts to develop more holistic fire research frameworks and demonstrates how application of these principles can promote transdisciplinary research and transformation towards coexistence with fire, from local to global scales. In this forum piece, we identify and apply four guiding principles for transdisciplinary fire research. Collectively, these principles can foster more inclusive applied fire research that matches the scope and scale of today’s fire challenge and promotes transformative change towards coexisting with fire.","PeriodicalId":12273,"journal":{"name":"Fire Ecology","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139578313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Wildfire risk exploration: leveraging SHAP and TabNet for precise factor analysis","authors":"Faiza Qayyum, Harun Jamil, Tariq Alsboui, Mohammad Hijjawi","doi":"10.1186/s42408-023-00236-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-023-00236-w","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the intricacies of wildfire impact across diverse geographical landscapes necessitates a nuanced comprehension of fire dynamics and areas of vulnerability, particularly in regions prone to high wildfire risks. Machine learning (ML) stands as a formidable ally in addressing the complexities associated with predicting and mapping these risks, offering advanced analytical capabilities. Nevertheless, the reliability of such ML approaches is heavily contingent on the integrity of data and the robustness of training protocols. The scientific community has raised concerns about the transparency and interpretability of ML models in the context of wildfire management, recognizing the need for these models to be both accurate and understandable. The often-opaque nature of complex ML algorithms can obscure the rationale behind their outputs, making it imperative to prioritize clarity and interpretability to ensure that model predictions are not only precise but also actionable. Furthermore, a thorough evaluation of model performance must account for multiple critical factors to ensure the utility and dependability of the results in practical wildfire suppression and management strategies. This study unveils a sophisticated spatial deep learning framework grounded in TabNet technology, tailored specifically for delineating areas susceptible to wildfires. To elucidate the predictive interplay between the model’s outputs and the contributing variables across a spectrum of inputs, we embark on an exhaustive analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). This approach affords a granular understanding of how individual features sway the model’s predictions. Furthermore, the robustness of the predictive model is rigorously validated through 5-fold cross-validation techniques, ensuring the dependability of the findings. The research meticulously investigates the spatial heterogeneity of wildfire susceptibility within the designated study locale, unearthing pivotal insights into the nuanced fabric of fire risk that is distinctly local in nature. Utilizing SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) visualizations, this research meticulously identifies key variables, quantifies their importance, and demystifies the decision-making mechanics of the model. Critical factors, including temperature, elevation, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), aspect, and wind speed, are discerned to have significant sway over the predictions of wildfire susceptibility. The findings of this study accentuate the criticality of transparency in modeling, which facilitates a deeper understanding of wildfire risk factors. By shedding light on the significant predictors within the models, this work enhances our ability to interpret complex predictive models and drives forward the field of wildfire risk management, ultimately contributing to the development of more effective prevention and mitigation strategies.","PeriodicalId":12273,"journal":{"name":"Fire Ecology","volume":"58 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139578452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Plant-plant interactions influence post-fire recovery depending on fire history and nurse growth form","authors":"Maral Bashirzadeh, Mehdi Abedi, Mohammad Farzam","doi":"10.1186/s42408-024-00246-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-024-00246-2","url":null,"abstract":"Plant-plant interactions are among the most important factors affecting the natural recovery of vegetation. While the impacts of nurse plants on species composition and biodiversity are well documented, the effects of different nurse’s growth forms on all biodiversity components including taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity have been less studied and compared, especially for their effects on different times after fire disturbance. This research was focused on comparing the effects of a perennial grass (Elymus hispidens), a perennial herb (Phlomis cancellata), and a high shrub species (Lonicera nummulariifolia) on species composition and the biodiversity components, and how these impacts change across five sites with short-term (1 and 4 years sites), long-term (10 and 20 years sites) times since last fire and a control site where no fire was known in recorded history in semi-arid shrublands of Fereizi Chenaran located in Northeast of Iran. The changes of species composition and taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity were calculated with respect to the presence/absence of nurse’s growth forms, fire history, and their interactions. Nurse shrubs affected species composition and all biodiversity components, whereas all indices were reduced when considering Elymus grass as nurse plant. On the other hand, the herb Phlomis enhanced species composition and taxonomic diversity, while it had a negative effect on functional and phylogenetic diversity. Such specific effects of nurse types were mostly observed under long timescales (i.e., 10- and 20-year sites). Interestingly, the relative importance of nurse types and time since the last fire largely explained the variation of species composition and biodiversity components, with larger effects of nurse types on all biodiversity components. However, we found a significant contribution of fire explaining variation of species composition and phylogenetic diversity. These results indicated nurse plants can affect the post-fire recovery of vegetation by providing specific mechanisms controlling beneficiary relatedness depending on their growth forms and time scales since the last fire. Therefore, these findings suggest perennial plants in the form of nurse species as a useful factor to develop techniques of active restoration in burned ecosystems.","PeriodicalId":12273,"journal":{"name":"Fire Ecology","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139578445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shapley-based interpretation of deep learning models for wildfire spread rate prediction","authors":"Faiza Qayyum, Nagwan Abdel Samee, Maali Alabdulhafith, Ahmed Aziz, Mohammad Hijjawi","doi":"10.1186/s42408-023-00242-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-023-00242-y","url":null,"abstract":"Predicting wildfire progression is vital for countering its detrimental effects. While numerous studies over the years have delved into forecasting various elements of wildfires, many of these complex models are perceived as “black boxes”, making it challenging to produce transparent and easily interpretable outputs. Evaluating such models necessitates a thorough understanding of multiple pivotal factors that influence their performance. This study introduces a deep learning methodology based on transformer to determine wildfire susceptibility. To elucidate the connection between predictor variables and the model across diverse parameters, we employ SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) for a detailed analysis. The model’s predictive robustness is further bolstered through various cross-validation techniques. Upon examining various wildfire spread rate prediction models, transformer stands out, outperforming its peers in terms of accuracy and reliability. Although the models demonstrated a high level of accuracy when applied to the development dataset, their performance deteriorated when evaluated against the separate evaluation dataset. Interestingly, certain models that showed the lowest errors during the development stage exhibited the highest errors in the subsequent evaluation phase. In addition, SHAP outcomes underscore the invaluable role of explainable AI in enriching our comprehension of wildfire spread rate prediction.","PeriodicalId":12273,"journal":{"name":"Fire Ecology","volume":"58 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139554550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cellular automata-based simulators for the design of prescribed fire plans: the case study of Liguria, Italy","authors":"Nicoló Perello, Andrea Trucchia, Francesco Baghino, Bushra Sanira Asif, Lola Palmieri, Nicola Rebora, Paolo Fiorucci","doi":"10.1186/s42408-023-00239-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-023-00239-7","url":null,"abstract":"Socio-economic changes in recent decades have resulted in an accumulation of fuel within Mediterranean forests, creating conditions conducive to potential catastrophic wildfires intensified by climate change. Consequently, several wildfire management systems have integrated prescribed fires as a proactive strategy for land management and wildfire risk reduction. The preparation of prescribed fires involves meticulous planning, entailing the identification of specific objectives, verification of prescriptions, and the definition of various scenarios. During the planning phase, simulation models offer a valuable decision-support tool for the qualitative and quantitative assessment of different scenarios. In this study, we harnessed the capabilities of the well-established wildfire simulation tool PROPAGATOR, to identify areas where prescribed fires can be performed, optimizing the wildfire risk mitigation and the costs. We selected a case study in the Liguria region, Italy, where the model is utilized operationally by the regional wildfire risk management system in emergency situations. Initially, we employed the propagation model to simulate a historical wildfire event, showcasing its potential as an emergency response tool. We focused on the most significant fire incident that occurred in the Liguria region in 2022. Subsequently, we employed PROPAGATOR to identify optimal areas for prescribed fires with the dual objectives of maximizing the mitigation of wildfire risk and minimizing treatment costs. The delineation of potential areas for prescribed fires has been established in accordance with regional regulations and expert-based insights. The methodology put forth in this study is capable of discerning the most suitable areas for the implementation of prescribed burns from a preselected set. A Monte Carlo simulation framework was employed to evaluate the efficacy of prescribed burns in mitigating the spread of wildfires. This assessment accounted for a variety of conditions, including fuel loads, ignition points, and meteorological patterns. The PROPAGATOR model was utilized to simulate the progression of wildfire spread. This study underscores the utility of PROPAGATOR in offering both quantitative and qualitative insights that can inform prescribed fire planning. Our methodology has been designed to involve active engagement with subject matter experts throughout the process, to develop scenarios grounded in their expert opinions. The ability to assess diverse scenarios and acquire quantitative information empowers decision-makers to make informed choices, thereby advancing safer and more efficient fire management practices.","PeriodicalId":12273,"journal":{"name":"Fire Ecology","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139517808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}