{"title":"Using Patent Capital to Estimate Tobin's q","authors":"Michael Woeppel","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3420322","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3420322","url":null,"abstract":"I construct a new proxy for Tobin's q that incorporates the replacement cost of patent capital. This proxy, PI (physical plus intangible) q, explains up to 62% more variation in investment than other proxies for q. Furthermore, investment is more sensitive to PI q than to other proxies for q. Although investment is predicted more accurately by, and is more sensitive to, PI q, controlling for PI q leads to relatively higher, not lower, cash flow coefficients. All results are stronger in subsamples with more patent capital. Overall, using PI q strengthens the historically weak investment-q relation.","PeriodicalId":122400,"journal":{"name":"IRPN: Innovation & Econometrics (Topic)","volume":"61 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128357599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bellman Filtering for State-Space Models","authors":"Rutger-Jan Lange","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3682036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3682036","url":null,"abstract":"This article presents a new filter for state-space models based on Bellman's dynamic programming principle applied to the posterior mode. The proposed Bellman filter generalises the Kalman filter including its extended and iterated versions, while remaining equally inexpensive computationally. The Bellman filter is also (unlike the Kalman filter) robust under heavy-tailed observation noise and applicable to a wider range of models. Simulation studies reveal that the mean absolute error of the Bellman-filtered states using estimated parameters typically falls within a few percent of that produced by the mode estimator evaluated at the true parameters, which is optimal but generally infeasible.","PeriodicalId":122400,"journal":{"name":"IRPN: Innovation & Econometrics (Topic)","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128571954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Supplement to 'The Inverse Product Differentiation Logit Model'","authors":"M. Fosgerau, Julien Monardo, A. de Palma","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3419559","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3419559","url":null,"abstract":"Full paper available at <a href=\"https://ssrn.com/abstract=3141041\">https://ssrn.com/abstract=3141041</a><br><br>We first present simulations investigating some properties of the Inverse Product Differentiation Logit (IPDL) model. Next, we provide a range of general methods for building Generalized Logit (GL) models along with illustrative examples that go beyond the IPDL model.","PeriodicalId":122400,"journal":{"name":"IRPN: Innovation & Econometrics (Topic)","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124589348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Model Free Approach to the Pricing of Downside Risk in Argentinean Stocks","authors":"J. P. Dapena, J. A. Serur, Julián R. Siri","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3498585","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3498585","url":null,"abstract":"The return dynamics of Argentina's main stock index, the SP Mer.Val., show a high level of volatility, signaling a higher degree of downside risk. To hedge against that specific risk, investors could buy put options. However, the Argentinean capital markets lacks variety of hedging contracts. The basic availability of put options depends on the possibility of short selling the underlying security, i.e. transfer risk to a third party, something not properly developed in the domestic market. Since data processing power has geometrically increased in the last decades and some mathematic formulas that were helpful for calculation had been surpassed by data gathering and processing that helps to find a better estimate when necessary, in this paper we show the point calculating protection against downside risk in the Argentinean stock market, using real data and programming an algorithm to perform calculations instead of resorting the standard Black-Scholes-Merton formulae, by means of a model free approach to acknowledge the issue.","PeriodicalId":122400,"journal":{"name":"IRPN: Innovation & Econometrics (Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114912230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Blockchain: A Misunderstood Digital Revolution. Things You Need to Know about Blockchain","authors":"John Taskinsoy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3466480","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3466480","url":null,"abstract":"Blockchain and distributed ledger technology (DLT) are used interchangeably. In the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, Bitcoin gave birth to blockchain, or vice versa. A decade has passed since the launch of the first successful cryptocurrency in January 2009 by a mysterious creator under the alias Satoshi Nakamoto. Now along with Bitcoin, 2,915 altcoins are trading with a combined market cap of $222 billion, Bitcoin’s market cap alone is $150 billion (67.6% of the market). Blockchain’s potential is much bigger than Bitcoin; if regulatory uncertainty alleviates, the blockchain’s value can easily increase by hundred-fold to $3 to $4 trillion dollars by 2030. Although financial sector leads blockchain adoption, blockchain’s opportunities in non-financial sectors are immense. In the simplest terms, blockchain is a distributed ledger made up of two parts, blocks containing of data and a chain that holds them together. Blocks are like storage units that store anything of value related to minting coins (i.e. Bitcoin) via a mining process and keeps a chronology of transactions (e-commerce); chain can be metaphorically viewed as a string that holds all the blocks together, created using a consensus algorithm based on proof-of-work (PoW) or proof-of-stake (PoS). Blockchains are often organized into three most common forms; as such, public blockchain (purely peer-to-peer, decentralized and permissionless; any miner (i.e. node) at any time can access the network to add, verify or validate data without restrictions), private blockchain (permissioned, it is controlled by a central authority which grants permission to pre-selected people who can add and verify records), and consortium blockchain (also formed as permissioned, a group of nodes governs all transactions). It is true that blockchain provides anonymity making identities of its users pseudonymous; but contrary to popular belief, blockchain will not possibly solve all our problems and a permissionless blockchain will not guarantee complete privacy since all transactions become visible to all nodes of the network.","PeriodicalId":122400,"journal":{"name":"IRPN: Innovation & Econometrics (Topic)","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123806979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Control of the Belt Speed At an Uneven Loading of the Conveyor","authors":"O. Pihnastyi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3554059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3554059","url":null,"abstract":"Development of algorithms for controlling the speed of the conveyor belt, based on the distributed model of the transport system, containing partial differential equations. To calculate the parameters of a conveyor line with a variable speed of material motion, an instrument of mathematical physics is used. Comparative analysis of conveyor transport system models is performed. Application of partial differential equations for simulating transport systems of conveyor type, which are complex dynamic distributed systems, is substantiated. A nondimensional model of a conveyor system in instantaneous approximation with the use of partialderivative equations is presented. A system of characteristic equations is recorded and a solution is developed which defines the value of material flow and material density at an arbitrary point of time for the given point of the transportation route. An expression is obtained which defines the value of material delay in the transport system depending on the velocity defect law for conveyor belt movement. Transition period time is determined during which the output material flow is defined by the linear density of material disposition along the transportation route. Dependence for the material linear density and material flow for the steady-state condition are defined. The performance criterion of control of flow parameters of the conveyor system is recorded and a solution of the problem of optimal control of conveyor belt speed providing the relay control mode with the minimum power consumption for material movement is found. An example of control algorithm development is given. PDEmodels of transport systems of conveyor type and energy-saving algorithms for controlling such systems have been improved. The proposed method for calculating the parameters of the conveyor line, which is a dynamic distributed system, can be used to design systems for optimal control of flow parameters of transport systems of conveyor type.","PeriodicalId":122400,"journal":{"name":"IRPN: Innovation & Econometrics (Topic)","volume":"1 12","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120807036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Price Equilibriums, and Rationality of Price Equilibriums within Stock Markets","authors":"Oghenovo A. Obrimah","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.686701","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.686701","url":null,"abstract":"This study models price equilibriums that feasibly could obtain within stock markets. In all, the model generates five feasible price equilibriums. Given the equilibrium most attractive to issuers is characterized by presence of rational valuation bubbles, formal predictions show stock prices are prone to development of rational valuation bubbles. In presence of arrival of new innovations within stock markets prior to exhaustion of innovativeness of `previously new' innovations, rational valuation bubbles are maintained ad infinitum. If arrival rates for new innovations lag exhaustion rates for previously new innovations, stock markets experience market correction events. As reasonably could be expected, the formal model provides evidence for feasibility of irrational valuation bubbles within stock markets. Consistent with expectations, where they occur, irrational bubbles are larger in magnitude than corresponding rational bubbles. In this respect, formal predictions show evolution of return processes can be efficient, yet be generated by less than fully rational or irrational game theoretic actions undertaken by issuers or investors at some origin point in time. The study generates two test statistics for rationality of price equilibriums within stock markets, test statistics which, consistent with normative characterization of such statistics, embed jointness of stock prices and returns.","PeriodicalId":122400,"journal":{"name":"IRPN: Innovation & Econometrics (Topic)","volume":"134 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131620373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Machine Invasion: Automation in Information Processing and the Cross Section of Stock Returns","authors":"Raunaq S. Pungaliya, Yanbo Wang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3221816","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3221816","url":null,"abstract":"We separate downloads on the SEC EDGAR database into human and machine actions by the intensity of information retrieval (Ryans, 2017). The split shows that the extent of machine downloads has risen 35 times since 2004, accounting for over 96% of total downloads as of 2016. We formally investigate the relationship of machine automation in information processing and the cross-section of stock returns. We find that stocks in the lowest quintile of machine coverage outperform those in the highest quintile by 6 to 7% annually after adjusting for risk. Our results are consistent with recent theoretical work on big data (Begenau, Farboodi, and Veldkamp, 2018) and are supported by a natural experiment on the implementation of XBRL tags that enabled machine readable financial disclosure.","PeriodicalId":122400,"journal":{"name":"IRPN: Innovation & Econometrics (Topic)","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124030292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Robust Analysis and Forecasting Framework for the Indian Mid Cap Sector Using Times Series Decomposition Approach","authors":"Jaydip Sen","doi":"10.36227/techrxiv.15128901","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.36227/techrxiv.15128901","url":null,"abstract":"Prediction of stock prices using econometrics and machine learning based approaches poses significant challenges to the research community since the movement of stock prices are essentially random in its nature. However, significant development and rapid evolution of sophisticated and complex algorithms which are capable of analyzing large volume of time series data, coupled with availability of high-performance hardware and parallel computing architecture over the last decade, has made it possible to efficiently process and effectively analyze voluminous stock market time series data in an almost real-time environment. In this paper, we propose a decomposition-based approach for time series analysis of the Indian mid cap sector and also present a highly robust and accurate prediction framework consisting of six forecasting methods for predicting the future values of the time series. Extensive results are presented on the performance of each forecasting method and the reasons why a particular method has performed better than the others have been critically analyzed.","PeriodicalId":122400,"journal":{"name":"IRPN: Innovation & Econometrics (Topic)","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127455466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"LSM Reloaded - Differentiate xVA on your iPad Mini","authors":"B. Huge, Antoine Savine","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2966155","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2966155","url":null,"abstract":"This article by Brian Huge and Antoine Savine reviews the so called least square methodology (LSM) and its application for the valuation and risk of callable exotics and regulatory value adjustments (xVA). We derive valuation algorithms for xVA, both with or without collateral, that are particularly accurate, efficient and practical. These algorithms are based on a reformulation of xVA, designed by Jesper Andreasen and implemented in Danske Bank's award winning systems, that hasn't been previously published in full. We then investigate the matter of risk sensitivities, in the context of Algorithmic Automated Differentiation (AAD). A rather recent addition to the financial mathematics toolbox, AAD is presently generally acknowledged as a vastly superior alternative to the classical estimation of risk sensitivities through finite differences, and the only practical means for the calculation of the large number of sensitivities in the context of xVA. The theory and implementation of AAD, the related check-pointing techniques, and their application to Monte-Carlo simulations are explained in numerous textbooks and articles, including Giles and Glasserman's pioneering Smoking Adjoints. We expose an extension to LSM, and, in particular, we derive an original algorithm that resolves the matters of memory consumption and efficiency in differentiating simulations together with the LSM step.","PeriodicalId":122400,"journal":{"name":"IRPN: Innovation & Econometrics (Topic)","volume":"194 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124285275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}