Energy Economics最新文献

{"title":"AI carbon footprint in China sets to double post-2030 carbon peaking","authors":"Zhan-Ming Chen ,&nbsp;Qiyang Xiong ,&nbsp;Jiahui Duan ,&nbsp;Jianhong Ma ,&nbsp;Zhuo Chen ,&nbsp;Shan Guo","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108880","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108880","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The unprecedented advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) have significantly increased energy consumption, raising global concerns about AI carbon footprint. As a global AI leader, China stands at a crucial juncture where its AI development intersects with national energy transition and climate strategies, particularly concerning its Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals. This study employs an uncertainty-based Architectural Carbon Modeling Tool and scenario analysis to quantify the energy consumption and carbon footprint of AI data centers in China from 2022 to 2050. Our projections indicate that the electricity consumption of AI data centers will surpass 1000 TWh by 2030, exerting pressure on the power system and driving a significant increase in emissions. The carbon footprint is projected to double after 2030, peaking at 695 Mt. in 2038 and declining to 474 Mt. by 2050, with manufacturing emissions contributing approximately 18 % of the total. Geospatial analysis reveals that under the Business as Usual scenario, energy demand remains concentrated in the eastern provinces, whereas the Advanced Green scenario redistributes AI computing demand to the west, creating new carbon hotspots. Increasing the proportion of internal green electricity is identified as the most effective strategy, with the potential to reduce operational emissions by 42 %. This study comprehensively examines AI's energy implications and provides policy-relevant insights for balancing technological advancements with long-term energy sustainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 108880"},"PeriodicalIF":14.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145004033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Under the sustainable development goals: A research on the coupling coordination relationship of water- energy- food globally","authors":"Yin Yan ,&nbsp;Dalai Ma ,&nbsp;Changyin Li ,&nbsp;Chao Hu ,&nbsp;Pengli Deng ,&nbsp;Ruonan Chang ,&nbsp;Kaihua Li","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108873","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108873","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Under the backdrop of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the research on the coupling coordination relationship of water-energy-food (WEF), as an essential factor for human survival and development, has become a focal point. In this paper, through the understanding of SDG 2 (food), SDG 6 (water) and SDG 7 (energy), an indicator system is established, and entropy weighting, hierarchical analysis, coupling coordination degree model and exploratory spatio-temporal data analysis are adopted to analyze the coupling coordination degree (CCD) of WEF in 112 countries worldwide from 2000 to 2021 in a spatio-temporal manner. The relevant results show that: (1) The global water, energy and food systems all show different degrees of increase. The energy system scores the highest and provides a central driving force for the WEF's CCD evolution. (2) The global CCD of WEF rises slowly. Countries like the United States and China are in the front of the CCD, and Afghanistan and Rwanda are lagging behind in the WEF coupling status. In high-income countries, the CCD is higher and more volatile; in lower-middle-income and low-income countries, the CCD is lower and the “latecomer advantage” is significant. From the regional perspective, the CCD from high to low are South America, Europe, Oceania, North America, Asia and Africa. (3) The CCD is highly space-dependent, maintaining a basically unchanged spatial pattern. The spatial aggregation effect of CCD is obvious, and over 90 % of nations have not experienced any changes in the spatio-temporal transfer. According to the findings, policy recommendations such as constructing a global synergistic governance framework and strengthening the multilateral cooperation mechanism are proposed, with a view to promoting the rational allocation of resources on a global scale, realizing the goal of sustainable development and the long-term development of human society.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 108873"},"PeriodicalIF":14.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145010369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"European financial markets, energy returns and geopolitical risk: A frequency domain spectral analysis","authors":"Giorgos Kotsompolis ,&nbsp;Arsenios-Georgios N. Prelorentzos ,&nbsp;Panos Xidonas ,&nbsp;Konstantinos N. Konstantakis ,&nbsp;Panayotis G. Michaelides","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108856","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108856","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The subject of this paper is the complex connections within market uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and returns in the energy sector. Geopolitical risk exerts a significant influence on investor sentiment and portfolio decisions, prompting the need for higher returns to compensate for heightened risk. We examine how geopolitical risks impact European equity returns within the framework of the global energy crisis. The daily data, covering eleven (11) years, namely the period 07/03/2013 -18/03/2024, include returns and volatility data for the energy sector’ and EURO STOXX indices. Employing a Breitung–Candelon frequency domain spectral causality methodology, as well as the Zivot–Andrews structural break test, we scrutinize variations in the influence of uncertainties and of geopolitical risks on the equity returns. Exhaustive analysis based on the COVOL indices and the widely used GPR index, as well as on the Brent crude oil and the natural gas prices confirms our findings’ robustness. In addition, our study incorporates the Energy Security Index (ESI) and the Energy-Related Uncertainty Index (EUI) to further explore the dynamic interdependencies between geopolitical risk and the energy sector. Our analysis illustrates the increased sensitivity of the returns to different geopolitical uncertainties and to changes in the energy sector, but also highlights the need for adaptive strategies, particularly in times of crisis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 108856"},"PeriodicalIF":14.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145045095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How do domestic solar PV users respond to price and temperature shocks? Evidence from Italy between 2021–2022","authors":"Lucia Piazza ,&nbsp;Francesco Pietro Colelli ,&nbsp;Wilmer Pasut ,&nbsp;Enrica De Cian","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108813","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108813","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The use of renewable energy sources, the energy crisis, and the increased frequency and intensity of high-heat events are changing the conditions under which European households consume energy services for their thermal comfort. Leveraging high-frequency residential electricity consumption from more than 10,000 households in a municipality in northern Italy between 2021 and 2022, we show that solar photovoltaics (PV) adoption reduces grid electricity consumption, during high-price and high-temperature events, enhancing energy security and affordability. We evaluate the environmental benefits of PV adoption using the global estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) to monetize the value of avoided negative externalities due to GHG emissions. The adoption of PV by an average household in Brescia saves up to 544 kg of CO2 in a year, leading to a reduction of environmental damage for a value of €166–€266/year. Furthermore, based on our estimated demand functions, we measure significant differences in the loss of price-induced consumer surplus for households with and without PV, which amounts to between €133 and €300, respectively, highlighting substantial private benefits from PV adoption during price fluctuations. Our findings underscore the need for targeted policies that expand access to residential PV systems, not only to support climate goals but also to mitigate energy poverty by shielding vulnerable households from extreme fluctuations in electricity prices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 108813"},"PeriodicalIF":14.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145093858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Balancing energy efficiency and social costs: Evidence from income disparities","authors":"Tianqi Chen ,&nbsp;Wenyu Mu ,&nbsp;Hui Li","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108876","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108876","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As China pursues its dual goals of carbon neutrality and common prosperity, balancing energy efficiency improvements with social equity has become a key policy challenge. This study investigates the distributional effect of energy efficiency on urban-rural income inequality using panel data from 279 Chinese prefecture-level cities (2008–2021) and robust econometric techniques. The results reveal a nonlinear relationship between energy efficiency and the urban-rural income gap. While initial improvements narrow the gap, exceeding a critical threshold leads to widening income disparities. The analysis also highlights regional heterogeneity, showing that large cities tend to experience direct inequality increases, while smaller cities exhibit a U-shaped response. In resource-based cities, the resource curse effect further amplifies disparities. Furthermore, the study examines the institutional moderating mechanisms of government intervention, industrial upgrading, and marketization, which significantly shape the equity outcome of energy efficiency. Excessive government intervention may intensify inequality, while industrial upgrading and marketization help mitigate negative effects. These findings contribute to the literature on just energy transitions and offer practical guidance for achieving sustainable and inclusive growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 108876"},"PeriodicalIF":14.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145004035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Synergetic design of variable distribution network tariffs and upgrade investments","authors":"Panagiotis Pediaditis ,&nbsp;Dimitrios Papadaskalopoulos ,&nbsp;Anthony Papavasiliou ,&nbsp;Nikos Hatziargyriou ,&nbsp;Georgios Tsaousoglou ,&nbsp;Mattia Marinelli","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108865","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108865","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Digitalization and the increase of distributed energy resources lead distribution system operators and regulatory authorities to rethink their practices. Two of their most important shared duties are to design the use-of-system tariffs, also known as network tariffs, and to plan network investments. This paper proposes a methodology for the synergetic design of variable network tariffs and network upgrade decisions. A novel stochastic bilevel optimization model is proposed, with investment decisions addressed in the first stage and the interaction between tariffs and prosumers’ responses captured in the second stage. The tariffs recover system costs, including network upgrade investments, and can have temporal and spatial variation. Fair cost allocation issues arising from their spatial variation are addressed. The case studies demonstrate the method’s effectiveness in reducing investment and operational costs, the trade-off between tariff granularity and cost reduction, and the value of stochastic versus deterministic planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 108865"},"PeriodicalIF":14.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145093859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Decarbonising the UK pulp, paper and printing sector: Balancing sustainability and global competitiveness through insights from LMDI and MRIO analysis","authors":"T. Ibn-Mohammed ,&nbsp;A.C. Serrenho ,&nbsp;H. Fujii ,&nbsp;A. Acquaye ,&nbsp;A. Morrison-Saunders","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108872","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108872","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The United Kingdom's pulp, paper, and printing sector (UKPPP) contributes ∼6 % of the nation's industrial CO₂ emissions. While these emissions have declined since 2000, mainly because roughly half its paper mills closed due to global competitiveness challenges, other factors influencing emission dynamics (e.g., carbon intensity, energy intensity, fossil fuel dependency, economic structure, and activities) remain quantitatively unevaluated in comparison to other top global PPP countries (TGPPP). Additionally, the UKPPP relies on imports from TGPPP. Yet, a comprehensive modelling of the ecological CO₂ emission exchanges and a comparison of sectoral production structures and emission dynamics between these entities have not been conducted. This analytical gap hinders the gauging of the effectiveness of decarbonisation plans, impacting wider UK climate policy. Consequently, this paper employs a two-step, top-down modelling approach, utilising logarithmic mean divisia index and environmentally-extended multi-region input-output frameworks to examine the sectoral emission driving factors between 2000 and 2019. The analysis reveals that across the aggregate 20-year period, efficiency gains from improved energy intensity contributed minimally to emission mitigation, despite overall improvements in carbon intensity and reduced fossil fuel dependency, primarily induced by an increased proportion of solid biomass and biogas. Importantly, despite the UKPPP's improved carbon intensity, CO₂ emissions are effectively leaking to other TGPPP, with the exception of Russia, where the UK is a net exporter of emissions, highlighting a critical need to rethink current bilateral trading mechanisms. Macro-level sector-specific strategies encompassing new circular business models, supply-chain re-configurations, and consumption-based carbon budgeting to both decarbonise the UKPPP and keep it globally competitive are proposed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 108872"},"PeriodicalIF":14.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145019890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can carbon trading drive SDG success? Evidence from China's emissions trading pilot schemes","authors":"Yunfei An ,&nbsp;Xueqi Zhai ,&nbsp;Hao Ding ,&nbsp;Dequn Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108877","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108877","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) represent two critical global initiatives, and their interconnections have profound practical implications. To investigate the overall impact of emissions trading system (ETS) on SDGs, this research uses China's emissions trading pilot schemes as a case study and employs the propensity score matching-difference-in-differences (PSM-DID) method to conduct an empirical analysis based on panel data from 266 cities. City-level heterogeneity is analyzed from the perspectives of economic development and resource endowment. The mediating role of energy transition in the impact of ETS on SDGs is further examined through the lenses of energy system performance and transition readiness. The findings indicate that: (a) the ETS significantly improved the overall achievement of SDGs in the pilot cities, (b) the ETS pilot schemes had a positive effect on the SDGs of a range of cities having different economic and resource endowment levels, with a more pronounced effect in cities characterized by lower economic development and higher resource endowment, and (c) the ETS pilots advanced cities' SDGs by enhancing energy system performance. This study recommends leveraging ETS as a strategic tool to advance the achievement of SDGs. It advocates for the development and ongoing enhancement of a broader national carbon trading mechanism, with strengthened oversight of economically underdeveloped regions and resource-dependent cities. Furthermore, support for corporate energy transitions should be intensified to accelerate the attainment of SDGs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 108877"},"PeriodicalIF":14.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144932568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The effectiveness of China's national emissions trading scheme in mitigating firm emissions","authors":"Ziyu Qin ,&nbsp;Jianhui Ruan ,&nbsp;Hui Yu ,&nbsp;Jieyi Li ,&nbsp;Chen Lyu ,&nbsp;Bofeng Cai ,&nbsp;Shouyang Wang ,&nbsp;Ling Tang","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108829","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108829","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China's national emissions trading scheme (ETS), announced in 2017, has become the largest carbon market worldwide, operating alongside pre-existing regional pilots. However, detailed assessments regarding the newly constructed national ETS, particularly in comparison with the regional pilots, remain limited. Using unit-level monitoring data from China's power sector and combining intermediary and moderate models, this study investigates the carbon mitigation impact of China's national ETS relative to pilot ETSs. We find that while both the national and pilot ETSs significantly reduce carbon intensities, the effect was more pronounced in pilots. A mechanism behind this reduction is the improvement in fuel quality, as evidenced by a decrease in carbon content. Regional economic growth and a higher share of industrial activity appear to offset the policy's overall effectiveness. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the mitigation effects were greater in smaller and older units compared to their larger or newer counterparts. Our unit-level empirical evaluation of China's national ETS not only advances theoretical understanding of emissions trading mechanisms but also provides actionable insights for refining or establishing carbon market policies in emerging economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 108829"},"PeriodicalIF":14.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144932567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bidding behaviour in interdependent markets for electricity and green certificates","authors":"Kajsa Ganhammar","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108849","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108849","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Market-based climate policies have received increased attention, making it important to understand how they affect competition in the electricity market. This paper focuses on the green certificate policy which financially supports producers of renewably sourced electricity by means of tradable certificates, and develops a duopoly model that incorporates both the electricity and the green certificate markets in an auction-based setting. Producers are privately informed about their generation costs, and the results suggest that whether or not they are drawn from the same distribution has important implications for market outcomes. In particular, if the subsidised technology has a higher expected marginal cost than the conventional one (e.g., one bio-fuelled and one fossil-fuelled technology), the certificate policy can improve competition and efficiency in the electricity market. Conversely, if producers have the same expected marginal cost (e.g., one mature, non-subsidised and one emerging renewable technology), the advantage the policy creates enables the subsidised producer to bid higher at given cost as the probability of winning the electricity auction increases. This undermines competition and results in high consumer prices of electricity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 108849"},"PeriodicalIF":14.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145004034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}