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How Destructive is Innovation? 创新的破坏性有多大?
Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2896913
Daniel Garcia-Macia, Chang-tai Hsieh, Peter J. Klenow
{"title":"How Destructive is Innovation?","authors":"Daniel Garcia-Macia, Chang-tai Hsieh, Peter J. Klenow","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2896913","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2896913","url":null,"abstract":"Entrants and incumbents can create new products and displace the products of competitors. Incumbents can also improve their existing products. How much of aggregate productivity growth occurs through each of these channels? Using data from the U.S. Longitudinal Business Database on all nonfarm private businesses from 1983 to 2013, we arrive at three main conclusions: First, most growth appears to come from incumbents. We infer this from the modest employment share of entering firms (defined as those less than 5 years old). Second, most growth seems to occur through improvements of existing varieties rather than creation of brand new varieties. Third, own‐product improvements by incumbents appear to be more important than creative destruction. We infer this because the distribution of job creation and destruction has thinner tails than implied by a model with a dominant role for creative destruction.","PeriodicalId":115451,"journal":{"name":"Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic)","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128877754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 162
Economic Transformation in Africa from the Bottom Up: Evidence from Tanzania 非洲自下而上的经济转型:来自坦桑尼亚的证据
Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-12-01 DOI: 10.3386/W22889
X. Diao, J. Kweka, M. McMillan
{"title":"Economic Transformation in Africa from the Bottom Up: Evidence from Tanzania","authors":"X. Diao, J. Kweka, M. McMillan","doi":"10.3386/W22889","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W22889","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Tanzania's rapid labor productivity growth has been accompanied by a proliferation of small, largely informal firms. Using Tanzania's first nationally representative survey of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs)—this paper explores the nature of these businesses. It finds that these firms are located in both rural and urban areas and that they operate primarily in trade services and manufacturing. Roughly half of all business owners say they would not leave their job for a full-time salaried position. Fifteen percent of these small businesses contribute significantly to economy-wide labor productivity. The most important policy implication of the evidence presented in this paper is that if the goal is to grow MSMEs with the potential to contribute to productive employment, policies must be targeted at the most promising firms.","PeriodicalId":115451,"journal":{"name":"Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic)","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125038619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 20
Putting the Cycle Back into Business Cycle Analysis 将周期回归到商业周期分析中
Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.1257/AER.20190789
P. Beaudry, Dana Galizia, F. Portier
{"title":"Putting the Cycle Back into Business Cycle Analysis","authors":"P. Beaudry, Dana Galizia, F. Portier","doi":"10.1257/AER.20190789","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/AER.20190789","url":null,"abstract":"Are business cycles mainly a response to persistent exogenous shocks, or do they instead reflect a strong endogenous mechanism which produces recurrent boom-bust phenomena? In this paper we present evidence in favor of the second interpretation and we highlight the set of key elements that influence our answer. The elements that tend to favor this type of interpretation of business cycles are (i) slightly extending the frequency window one associates with business cycle phenomena, (ii) allowing for strategic complementarities across agents that arise due to financial frictions, and (iii) allowing for a locally unstable steady state in estimation. (JEL E22, E24, E23, E44)","PeriodicalId":115451,"journal":{"name":"Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic)","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122452000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 107
Divergent Paths: Structural Change, Economic Rank, and the Evolution of Black-White Earnings Differences, 1940-2014 不同路径:结构变化、经济等级与黑人-白人收入差异演变，1940-2014
Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.3386/W22797
P. Bayer, K. Charles
{"title":"Divergent Paths: Structural Change, Economic Rank, and the Evolution of Black-White Earnings Differences, 1940-2014","authors":"P. Bayer, K. Charles","doi":"10.3386/W22797","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W22797","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents new evidence on the evolution of black-white earnings differences among all men at different points in the distribution. We study two dimensions of earnings gaps: the black-white difference in earnings; and the difference between a black man’s position in the black earnings and the position he would hold in the white distribution. After narrowing from 1940 to the mid-1970s, the median black-white earning gap has since grown as large as it was in 1950. Even as his relative earnings improved then worsened, the median black man’s relative position in the earnings distribution has remained essentially constant. Black men at higher percentiles have experienced significant gains in relative earnings since 1940. Unlike blacks at the median and below, whose relative earnings changes have been chiefly the result of narrowing and stretching of the overall earnings distribution, higher percentile blacks have also experienced significant positional gains over the past 70 years.","PeriodicalId":115451,"journal":{"name":"Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic)","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131446464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 37
Collective Choice in Dynamic Public Good Provision 动态公共物品供给中的集体选择
Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2666101
T. R. Bowen, G. Georgiadis, Nicolas S. Lambert
{"title":"Collective Choice in Dynamic Public Good Provision","authors":"T. R. Bowen, G. Georgiadis, Nicolas S. Lambert","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2666101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2666101","url":null,"abstract":"Two heterogeneous agents contribute over time to a joint project and collectively decide its scale. A larger scale requires greater cumulative effort and delivers higher benefits upon completion. We show that the efficient agent prefers a smaller scale, and preferences are time-inconsistent: as the project progresses, the efficient (inefficient) agent’s preferred scale shrinks (expands). We characterize the equilibrium outcomes under dictatorship and unanimity, with and without commitment. We find that an agent’s degree of efficiency is a key determinant of control over the project scale. From a welfare perspective, it may be desirable to allocate decision rights to the inefficient agent. (JEL C73, D71, H43)","PeriodicalId":115451,"journal":{"name":"Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic)","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129214073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11
Technological Leadership (De)Concentration: Causes in Icte 技术领先(De):技术集中的原因
Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-09-01 DOI: 10.3386/W22631
Yasin Ozcan, S. Greenstein
{"title":"Technological Leadership (De)Concentration: Causes in Icte","authors":"Yasin Ozcan, S. Greenstein","doi":"10.3386/W22631","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W22631","url":null,"abstract":"Using patents as indicators of inventive activity, this article characterizes the concentration of origins of invention from 1976 to 2010, and how these changed over time. The analysis finds pervasive deconcentration in virtually every area related to ICT, but it can explain only a small part of this trend. Deconcentration happens despite the role of lateral entry by existing firms. New firm entry drives part of the deconcentration, but this alone cannot explain the change. A single supply factor in the market for ideas, such as the breakup of AT&T, also cannot explain the trend. Finally, eleven percent of patents change hands through mergers and acquisitions activity, but this does not make up for the declines in concentration in the origins of invention.","PeriodicalId":115451,"journal":{"name":"Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic)","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133342941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Do Tax Incentives for Research Increase Firm Innovation? An Rd Design for R&D 研究税收激励能促进企业创新吗?为研发服务的研发设计
Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-07-01 DOI: 10.3386/W22405
Antoine Dechezleprêtre, Elias Einiö, Ralf Martin, Kieu-Trang Nguyen, J. Van Reenen
{"title":"Do Tax Incentives for Research Increase Firm Innovation? An Rd Design for R&D","authors":"Antoine Dechezleprêtre, Elias Einiö, Ralf Martin, Kieu-Trang Nguyen, J. Van Reenen","doi":"10.3386/W22405","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W22405","url":null,"abstract":"We present the first evidence showing causal impact of research and development (R&D) tax incentives on innovation outcomes. We exploit a change in the asset-based size thresholds for eligibility for R&D tax subsidies and implement a Regression Discontinuity Design using administrative tax data on the population of UK firms. There are statistically and economically significant effects of the tax change on both R&D and patenting, with no evidence of a decline in the quality of innovation. R&D tax price elasticities are large at about 2.6, probably because the treated group is from a sub-population subject to financial constraints. There does not appear to be pre-policy manipulation of assets around the thresholds that could undermine our design, but firms do adjust assets to take advantage of the subsidy post-policy. We estimate that over 2006-11 business R&D would be around 10% lower in the absence of the tax relief scheme.","PeriodicalId":115451,"journal":{"name":"Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic)","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129003392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 176
Overconfidence and Occupational Choice 过度自信与职业选择
Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-01-01 DOI: 10.3386/w21921
E. Lazear
{"title":"Overconfidence and Occupational Choice","authors":"E. Lazear","doi":"10.3386/w21921","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w21921","url":null,"abstract":"A statistical theory of overconfidence is proposed and applied to the issue of occupational choice. Individuals who can choose whether to engage in an activity or not must estimate their performance. The estimates have error and that error has positive expectation among those who engage in the activity. As a result, an unbiased ex ante estimate of performance in an occupatoin results in an ex post biased estimate of ability among those enter. The statistical theory of overconfidence provides a number of testable implications, most significant of which is that overconfidence should be more prevalent in occupations where estimates of ability are noisier. This and other implications are tested and found to hold using the Current Population Survey and Panel Study of Income Dynamics data.","PeriodicalId":115451,"journal":{"name":"Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic)","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116475072","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Patent Rights, Innovation and Firm Exit 专利权、创新与企业退出
Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic) Pub Date : 2015-12-01 DOI: 10.1111/1756-2171.12219
Alberto Galasso, Mark A. Schankerman
{"title":"Patent Rights, Innovation and Firm Exit","authors":"Alberto Galasso, Mark A. Schankerman","doi":"10.1111/1756-2171.12219","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12219","url":null,"abstract":"We study the causal impact of patent invalidation on subsequent innovation and exit by the patent holder. The analysis is based on patent litigation at the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, and exploits the random allocation of judges to control for endogeneity of the judicial decision. Invalidation causes the patent holder to reduce subsequent patenting over a five-year window by 50 percent on average, but the effect is heterogeneous. The impact is large for small and medium-sized firms, particularly in technology fields where they face many large competitors, and for patents central to their technology portfolio. We find no significant effect for large firms. Invalidation also significantly increases the likelihood that small firms exit from patenting entirely.","PeriodicalId":115451,"journal":{"name":"Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic)","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127367711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 30
Cyclical Patterns of Business Entry and Exit Dynamics in the US Economy 美国经济中企业进入和退出动态的周期性模式
Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic) Pub Date : 2015-11-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2694275
Can Tian
{"title":"Cyclical Patterns of Business Entry and Exit Dynamics in the US Economy","authors":"Can Tian","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2694275","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2694275","url":null,"abstract":"This paper documents the cyclical patterns of business entry and exit dynamism in the US using the Business Dynamic Statistics (BDS) dataset. The main finding is that, for both firms and establishments, the entry margin is significantly procyclical while the exit margin shows little cyclicality. In addition to the entry and exit rates, the numbers and relative sizes of entering and exiting businesses exhibit similar patterns over the business cycles. I then examine the roles of size, age, and sector in shaping the observed cyclicality, or lack thereof, and find significant variation across different groups.","PeriodicalId":115451,"journal":{"name":"Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic)","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121669516","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
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