Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic)最新文献

Dynamism Diminished: The Role of Housing Markets and Credit Conditions 活力减弱:住房市场和信贷条件的作用

Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3317135

S. Davis, J. Haltiwanger

{"title":"Dynamism Diminished: The Role of Housing Markets and Credit Conditions","authors":"S. Davis, J. Haltiwanger","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3317135","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3317135","url":null,"abstract":"The Great Recession and its aftermath saw the worst relative performance of young firms in at least 35 years. More broadly, as we show, young-firm activity shares move strongly with local economic conditions and local house price growth. In this light, we assess the effects of housing prices and credit supply on young-firm activity. Our panel IV estimation on MSA-level data yields large effects of local house price changes on local young-firm employment growth and employment shares and a separate, smaller role for locally exogenous shifts in bank lending supply. A novel test shows that house price effects work through wealth, liquidity and collateral effects on the propensity to start new firms and expand young ones. Aggregating local effects to the national level, housing market ups and downs play a major role – as transmission channel and driving force – in medium-run fluctuations in young-firm employment shares in recent decades. The great housing bust after 2006 largely drove the cyclical collapse of young-firm activity during the Great Recession, reinforced by a contraction in bank loan supply. As we also show, when the young-firm activity share falls (rises), local employment shifts strongly away from (towards) younger and less-educated workers.","PeriodicalId":115451,"journal":{"name":"Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130688491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 39

Naive Learning with Uninformed Agents 无信息主体的朴素学习

Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.3386/W25497

A. Banerjee, Emily Breza, Arun G. Chandrasekhar, M. Mobius

{"title":"Naive Learning with Uninformed Agents","authors":"A. Banerjee, Emily Breza, Arun G. Chandrasekhar, M. Mobius","doi":"10.3386/W25497","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W25497","url":null,"abstract":"The DeGroot model has emerged as a credible alternative to the standard Bayesian model for studying learning on networks, offering a natural way to model naive learning in a complex setting. One unattractive aspect of this model is the assumption that the process starts with every node in the network having a signal. We study a natural extension of the DeGroot model that can deal with sparse initial signals. We show that an agent's social influence in this generalized DeGroot model is essentially proportional to the number of uninformed nodes who will hear about an event for the first time via this agent. This characterization result then allows us to relate network geometry to information aggregation. We identify an example of a network structure where essentially only the signal of a single agent is aggregated, which helps us pinpoint a condition on the network structure necessary for almost full aggregation. We then simulate the modeled learning process on a set of real world networks; for these networks there is on average 21.6% information loss. We also explore how correlation in the location of seeds can exacerbate aggregation failure. Simulations with real world network data show that with clustered seeding, information loss climbs to 35%.","PeriodicalId":115451,"journal":{"name":"Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic)","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125629150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 35

Do Tax Cuts Produce More Einsteins? The Impacts of Financial Incentives vs. Exposure to Innovation on the Supply of Inventors 减税会产生更多的爱因斯坦吗?财政激励与创新暴露对发明者供给的影响

Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.3386/W25493

Alex Bell, Raj Chetty, Xavier Jaravel, Neviana Petkova, J. Van Reenen

{"title":"Do Tax Cuts Produce More Einsteins? The Impacts of Financial Incentives vs. Exposure to Innovation on the Supply of Inventors","authors":"Alex Bell, Raj Chetty, Xavier Jaravel, Neviana Petkova, J. Van Reenen","doi":"10.3386/W25493","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W25493","url":null,"abstract":"Many countries provide financial incentives to spur innovation, ranging from tax incentives to research and development grants. In this paper, we study how such financial incentives affect individuals' decisions to pursue careers in innovation. We _first present empirical evidence on inventors' career trajectories and income distributions using de-identified data on 1.2 million inventors from patent records linked to tax records in the U.S. We find that the private returns to innovation are extremely skewed - with the top 1% of inventors collecting more than 22% of total inventors' income - and are highly correlated with their social impact, as measured by citations. Inventors tend to have their most impactful innovations around age 40 and their incomes rise rapidly just before they have high-impact patents. We then build a stylized model of inventor career choice that matches these facts as well as recent evidence that childhood exposure to innovation plays a critical role in determining whether individuals become inventors. The model predicts that financial incentives, such as top income tax reductions, have limited potential to increase aggregate innovation because they only affect individuals who are exposed to innovation and have no impact on the decisions of star inventors, who matter most for aggregate innovation. Importantly, these results hold regardless of whether the private returns to innovation are known at the time of career choice. In contrast, increasing exposure to innovation (e.g., through mentorship programs) could have substantial impacts on innovation by drawing individuals who produce highimpact inventions into the innovation pipeline. Although we do not present direct evidence supporting these model-based predictions, our results call for a more careful assessment of the impacts of financial incentives and a greater focus on alternative policies to increase the supply of inventors.","PeriodicalId":115451,"journal":{"name":"Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114904919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 18

Immigrant Networking and Collaboration: Survey Evidence from Cic 移民网络与合作:来自Cic的调查证据

Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.3386/W25509

S. Kerr, W. Kerr

引用次数: 8

Choosing between Growth and Glory 在成长和荣耀之间做出选择

Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic) Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.1287/MNSC.2019.3296

Sharon Belenzon, A. Chatterji, Brendan Daley

引用次数: 17

Bigger than You Thought: China's Contribution to Scientific Publications 比你想象的更大:中国对科学出版物的贡献

Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic) Pub Date : 2018-07-01 DOI: 10.3386/W24829

Qingnan Xie, R. Freeman

引用次数: 15

Revealed Growth: A Method for Bounding the Elasticity of Demand with an Application to Assessing the Antitrust Remedy in the Du Pont Decision 显性增长:一种约束需求弹性的方法及其在杜邦案反垄断救济评估中的应用

Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic) Pub Date : 2018-06-01 DOI: 10.3386/w24786

Wallace P. Mullin, Christopher M. Snyder

引用次数: 0

The Life-Cycle Growth of Plants: The Role of Productivity, Demand and “Distortions” 植物的生命周期生长:生产力、需求和“扭曲”的作用

Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic) Pub Date : 2018-05-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3177289

Marcela Eslava, J. Haltiwanger

{"title":"The Life-Cycle Growth of Plants: The Role of Productivity, Demand and “Distortions”","authors":"Marcela Eslava, J. Haltiwanger","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3177289","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3177289","url":null,"abstract":"Using rich product level data on prices and quantities at the establishment level for Colombia, complemented with information on input use, we develop a methodological approach to decomposing output and sales growth over an establishment's life cycle. Our approach measures output at the plant-level using plant-level deflators that capture within plant changes in quality/appeal from product turnover. Idiosyncratic variation in measured fundamentals (e.g.,technical efficiency (TFPQ), between plant variation in demand/appeal, and input prices) explain more than 100% of the variability of output and sales relative to birth level, so that implied wedges dampen actual growth relative to that implied by fundamentals. This is consistent with either adjustment frictions or distortions that implicitly tax plants with strong fundamentals. About two thirds of the contribution of fundamentals to output growth is from technical efficiency and one third from idiosyncratic variation in demand/appeal, while for sales this latter component explains over 80% of the contribution of fundamentals. A reduced form decomposition of output and sales growth volatility implies that uncorrelated wedges account for about 20% of output and 10% of sales growth volatility. The (absolute) contribution of both correlated and uncorrelated wedges is substantially greater for young compared to more mature plants. We also show that our inferences about the respective role of fundamentals and wedges are quite different from those drawn from revenue and input data alone. Use of the latter (which is the common approach in the literature) yields a substantial overstatement of the contribution of role of wedges in accounting for sales growth volatlitiy.","PeriodicalId":115451,"journal":{"name":"Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic)","volume":"186 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116178077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 12

An Anatomy of U.S. Firms Seeking Trademark Registration 美国公司寻求商标注册的剖析

Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic) Pub Date : 2018-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3497999

Emin M. Dinlersoz, Nathan Goldschlag, Amanda F. Myers, Nikolas J. Zolas

引用次数: 29

Indivisibilities in Distribution 分布的不可分割性

Kauffman: Large Research Projects - NBER (Topic) Pub Date : 2018-04-01 DOI: 10.3386/W24525

T. Holmes, Ethan Singer

引用次数: 20