Ecology最新文献

{"title":"A 2100-km jaguar journey redefines mobility and large-scale conservation priorities during large carnivore dispersal","authors":"Jon Morant, Esther Sebastián-González, Leandro Reverberi Tambosi, Alan Eduardo de Barros, Renato A. Moreira, Francesca Belem Lopes Palmeira, Douglas dos Santos Silva, Tiago J. Silveira, Anah T. A. Jácomo, Leandro Silveira","doi":"10.1002/ecy.70441","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ecy.70441","url":null,"abstract":"<p>On November 27, 2025, we recorded the last GPS location from a 92-kg adult male jaguar (<i>Panthera onca</i>), designated “Gaspar” (Figure 1), marking a pivotal moment that reshapes our understanding of jaguar movement ecology. Gaspar was fitted with a GPS collar (Telonics TGW-4577-4 and Iridium Terrestrial System) on November 11, 2024. The GPS collar was set to record locations at 60-min intervals as established protocols for large carnivore telemetry studies. Gaspar was established in a 697 km<sup>2</sup> home range along the Araguaia River before initiating an unprecedented 2122-km journey toward the southwestern region, spanning the border of the Amazon to the inland Cerrado (Figure 2A,B). The 2122 km reported refers to the linear displacement (the straight-line distance between the start and endpoint of the dispersal phase).</p><p>Gaspar was part of our ongoing project based in Brazil, which utilizes high-frequency GPS telemetry to monitor the spatial behavior of jaguars along the Araguaia River, a potential large-scale corridor between the Cerrado grasslands and the Amazonian forest, within a broader Brazil-wide framework of corridor planning for jaguar conservation (Silveira et al., <span>2014</span>). His data are contributing to the expanding global database of carnivore movement patterns (Jędrzejewski et al., <span>2018</span>; Morato et al., <span>2018</span>). Gaspar's movement was recorded over 5050 GPS locations. We classified movement phases following established criteria (Edelhoff et al., <span>2016</span>): the pre-dispersal phase (~27% of locations) comprised the period of residency within the established home range along the Araguaia River, characterized by area-restricted, tortuous movement; the dispersal phase (~73% of locations) began with a sustained directional shift away from the home range and continued until the last recorded location. Throughout the 381-day dispersal phase alone, Gaspar traveled at an average of 9.76 km/day and a mean speed of 0.407 km/h, moving mainly toward the south–southwest (Figure 2C,D). Although these daily movement rates are somewhat lower than the maximum values reported for some jaguars and other large carnivores in Neotropical systems (e.g., 14–18 km/day for “Xangô” in the Cerrado and >15 km/day for two individuals in the Atlantic Forest; Morato et al., <span>2016</span>; up to 28.8 km/day for an individual in the Dry Chaco; McBride & Thompson, <span>2018</span>), Gaspar's trajectory is notable for the unusually long and sustained dispersal episode, with consistent long-distance movements maintained over several months rather than brief bursts of high daily displacement.</p><p>Comparative analysis with other large carnivore systems provides additional context for Gaspar's exceptional movement. Recent documentation of transfrontier carnivore dispersals in southern Africa recorded movements of 550–800 km for African wild dogs and lions (Goodheart et al., <span>2022</span>), while Eur","PeriodicalId":11484,"journal":{"name":"Ecology","volume":"107 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecy.70441","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148260883","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Linking genome size variation to phenotypic selection on target traits","authors":"Lucrezia Laccetti,&nbsp;Emilio Petrone-Mendoza,&nbsp;Donata Cafasso,&nbsp;Antonia Cristaudo,&nbsp;Fabio Pinheiro,&nbsp;Giovanni Scopece","doi":"10.1002/ecy.70442","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ecy.70442","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Genome size (GS) is known to be highly variable among angiosperm species. However, this variation can also occur within species. Both interspecific and intraspecific variations in GS have been often found to be linked to phenotypic traits. Therefore, selective pressures acting on these target traits may indirectly shape GS evolution within and among species. However, the processes linking selective pressures to GS evolution are typically studied at broad phylogenetic scales, often overlooking how these processes operate at the microevolutionary level, where selection acts on standing variation within species. Recently diverging species or independently evolving lineages offer ideal settings to test whether selection shaping GS variation within lineages is reflected in patterns of GS variation among them, thereby linking microevolutionary and macroevolutionary processes. Here, we combined flow cytometric estimates of GS with measurements of leaf and floral traits, known to be targets of selective pressures, in both common garden and wild populations of two recently diverged <i>Dianthus rupicola</i> lineages. Then, we tested for an allometric relationship between GS and such phenotypic traits. Finally, we characterized the biotic and abiotic environment of wild populations and quantified plant reproductive success to identify selective pressures acting on traits showing an allometric relationship with GS. We found substantial GS variation, primarily driven by differences between the two lineages, but also occurring within lineages. GS showed a strong allometric relationship with two leaf traits, that is, stomata area and epidermal cell dimension, and one floral trait, that is, style length, in both lineages. Leaf traits reflected similar patterns of local adaptation to the edaphic environment in the two lineages, whereas divergent biotic pressures between lineages were associated with variation in style length. Our selection analysis revealed that style length was negatively associated with plant reproductive success in the lineage interacting with the pre-dispersal seed predator <i>Hadena</i>, while the opposite trend was observed in the lineage where this interaction is absent. By demonstrating how ecological factors shape traits covarying with GS both within and between lineages, this study provides a valuable framework to bridge micro- and macroevolutionary processes in GS evolution.</p>","PeriodicalId":11484,"journal":{"name":"Ecology","volume":"107 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecy.70442","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148260968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"High phylogenetic turnover magnifies evolutionary relatedness along bacterial primary succession","authors":"Yannick Colin,&nbsp;Jose A. Navarro-Cano,&nbsp;Miguel Verdú,&nbsp;Marta Goberna","doi":"10.1002/ecy.70435","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ecy.70435","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Current models of microbial primary succession postulate that stochasticity dominates the early stages of soil community assembly, generating phylogenetically random patterns that are lost as abiotic and biotic filters gain relevance. We hypothesized that, under severe environmental stress, abiotic filters may override stochasticity from early successional stages, inducing phylogenetic clustering due to the overrepresentation of stress-tolerant lineages. Clustering may be magnified towards more carbon-rich stages due to intensified biotic interactions based on the overrepresentation of competitive clades. We also hypothesized that different plant life forms, with their contrasting effects on soil conditions, might modulate the phylogenetic patterns across microbial succession. To test these hypotheses, we collected 106 soil samples along plant size gradients of 13 species belonging to 4 life forms (trees, shrubs, perennial grasses, and dwarf shrubs) in seven sites in Mediterranean drylands in SE Spain. Samples in each gradient were taken in open areas (antecedent situation), underneath seedlings, juveniles, and mature plant individuals. In all cases, we detected large levels of phylogenetic clustering across the succession indicating a negligible role of stochasticity. Plant and soil variables drove different processes along the succession: Clustering of shallow-divergent lineages intensified along with plant growth and enrichment in soil organics, whereas clustering of deep-divergent lineages varied across plant life forms based on their effect on soil moisture. During primary succession, phylogenetic turnover increased due to the progressive enrichment in large lineages that were composed of closely related organisms and phylogenetically distant to the initial communities. Our data help fine-tune current models of bacterial primary succession indicating that (1) environmental filters can override stochasticity from the early stages of primary succession and (2) large levels of phylogenetic turnover can concur with increased evolutionary relatedness across gradients of microbial community assembly. Shifts in phylogenetic patterns may critically influence key ecosystem functions, such as decomposition and biogeochemical cycling, driven by soil microbiota.</p>","PeriodicalId":11484,"journal":{"name":"Ecology","volume":"107 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2026-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecy.70435","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148229841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A novel nursery pollination mutualism between a water primrose and its fruit-parasitizing weevil","authors":"Shi-Mao Wu,&nbsp;Gao Chen","doi":"10.1002/ecy.70440","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ecy.70440","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11484,"journal":{"name":"Ecology","volume":"107 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2026-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148229786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Atlas of Arctic bone modification","authors":"Madison Gaetano,&nbsp;Eric J. Wald,&nbsp;Patrick Druckenmiller,&nbsp;Joshua H. Miller","doi":"10.1002/ecy.70311","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ecy.70311","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Skeletal bones and antlers from past generations of wildlife are frequently found and consumed by other animals, living out a second life as an important dietary resource. Such gnawing may leave characteristic modifications, including tooth marks, providing physical evidence of a behavior and nutrient resource that is often challenging to directly observe and quantify. Documenting and interpreting features of bone modification can fill knowledge gaps regarding species' behavioral ecology, nutrient requirements, and interactions in modern ecosystems, as well as in historical, archaeological, and paleontological contexts. While prior research has documented characteristic patterns of bone modification and gnawing for a variety of bone consumers, these studies generally focus on a single species or taxonomic group, with only limited comparison to bone modifications generated by co-occurring groups (i.e., ruminants vs. carnivorans vs. rodents). Cataloging bone modifications at ecosystem scales has rarely been the focus of past work, which may be partially responsible for a profound gap in existing knowledge regarding how co-occurring and competing bone consumers partition this shared source of nutrients (e.g., calcium, phosphorus, and calorie-rich marrow). Here, we compiled available literature on bone modifications made by rodents, ungulates (specifically ruminants), and carnivorans. Using this compilation as a starting point, we characterized the full suite of modifications observed on 1567 shed antlers and 224 skeletal bones collected during standardized bone surveys along the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (Alaska). In total, we described, summarized, and photographed 27 distinct classes of pits, punctures, scores, furrows and fractures, and, when possible, identified the taxonomic group that is known or likely responsible for each modification class. Seven of these classes, all attributed to ruminants (likely caribou), have not been previously described. Each antler and skeletal bone was then evaluated for occurrences of the 27 modification classes. This dataset provides a resource to evaluate patterns of bone gnawing for multiple taxonomic groups (ruminants, carnivorans, rodents) and to assess resource competition and partitioning among co-occurring species and trophic guilds. A unique strength of this dataset is that it includes the largest assessment of bone modifications on a single skeletal element (antlers), providing unparalleled opportunities to evaluate variability in bone modification across space (~200 km) and through time (antlers can persist on tundra surfaces for hundreds to thousands of years). To provide a visual guide and reference for evaluating bone modification features, including those not observed on the Coastal Plain, we established a photographic atlas of Arctic bone modification classes. This resource characterizes bone modifications generated by ruminants, carnivorans, and rodents, as well as th","PeriodicalId":11484,"journal":{"name":"Ecology","volume":"107 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2026-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecy.70311","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148207429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Data Papers 2.0: Reimagining the future of open science and reproducibility","authors":"Miguel Acevedo,&nbsp;Graziella DiRenzo,&nbsp;Gaurav Kandlikar,&nbsp;Simona Picardi,&nbsp;Hao Ye","doi":"10.1002/ecy.70434","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ecy.70434","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;For the last 20 years, &lt;i&gt;Ecology&lt;/i&gt; Data Papers have been the premier standard for publishing ecological datasets. As the field of ecology enters the era of big data, we are experiencing rapid increases in computing power, cloud-based storage, and interest in sharing and disseminating datasets. As a consequence, how ecologists interact with data, including reproducibility standards, the size of datasets, and the way data are collected, analyzed, stored, and shared, has changed since the inception of &lt;i&gt;Ecology&lt;/i&gt; Data Papers. In this editorial, we describe how we reimagined &lt;i&gt;Ecology&lt;/i&gt; Data Papers to fit the 21st century data standards and needs, to facilitate the generation and analysis of new ecological questions and fulfilling the historical role of &lt;i&gt;Ecology&lt;/i&gt; as a leader in open science and reproducibility.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We define &lt;i&gt;Ecology&lt;/i&gt; Data Papers 2.0 as a unique type of manuscript published in &lt;i&gt;Ecology&lt;/i&gt;, designed to enrich the global ecological and scientific community through the sharing of data to be reused, reanalyzed, and remixed for advancing knowledge beyond its original purpose. The innovations we introduce with Data Papers 2.0 are coupled with a continued commitment to publication affordability, with publication fee waivers available, and to user access, with both the article and data freely available to all.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Updating &lt;i&gt;Ecology&lt;/i&gt; Data Papers from the 1.0 version to 2.0 was a data-driven process integrating feedback and perspectives from experts and the broader community. Specifically, we solicited input during a special organized session at the 2023 Ecological Society of America (ESA) meeting. We also distributed a survey to gather perspectives from the ecological community at large. Common themes that emerged from the ESA meeting and survey included the need for rigorous data and metadata standards, ease of reuse, transparency of data collection methods, and a cultural shift to credit and reward data collectors on par with authors of research manuscripts. Lastly, as our experience handling Data Papers has matured, we have identified a handful of issues that deserve special consideration. First, the potential for data reuse is maximized when data are made available in their rawest form (e.g., genomic data reads, pictures, or videos from camera traps). However, storage requirements for these data can sometimes surpass the capacity available in common repositories. We strongly encourage authors to make every effort to ensure the raw data is freely and openly available, while recognizing that this might not always be possible. When making raw data available is not possible, authors should provide well-documented intermediate products and explain how they created them to enable reproducible analyses and future reuse. Second, effective reuse of the data depends both on the data generators and the data users. Data generators have a responsibility to outline opportunities and limitations to guide the data users,","PeriodicalId":11484,"journal":{"name":"Ecology","volume":"107 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2026-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecy.70434","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148201843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Transient dynamics and nonlinear fitness: A matrix approach to pulse and press perturbation","authors":"Harman Jaggi,&nbsp;Shripad Tuljapurkar,&nbsp;Wenyun Zuo,&nbsp;Samuel J. L. Gascoigne,&nbsp;Maja Kajin,&nbsp;Roberto Salguero-Gómez","doi":"10.1002/ecy.70433","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ecy.70433","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Disturbances can occur as short-lived pulses (e.g., storms) or sustained presses (e.g., chronic drought). Much work in ecology has developed methods to help predict how natural populations respond to disturbances, but analyses of pulse and press disturbances have been largely disconnected. We present a matrix framework that links press and pulse perturbations within the same analytical approach, showing how transient nonlinearities and demography shape fitness. We find that transient responses to pulse perturbations accumulate to determine the long-term response to press disturbances. For structured population models, this cumulative change is given by a new transient response matrix (TRM). Strikingly, the TRM also yields the second derivatives of the population growth rate with respect to matrix elements. Thus, there is an intimate but unexpected relationship between nonlinear selection pressures on demographic rates, and the transient dynamics of populations. This relationship yields a strong correlation between TRM and generation time across 439 unique plant and animal species (2690 population models). We also show that the TRM is directly related to Cohen's cumulative distance measure for populations converging to stability. Our framework provides ecologists with a general tool to predict population responses to diverse environmental changes.</p>","PeriodicalId":11484,"journal":{"name":"Ecology","volume":"107 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2026-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecy.70433","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148201821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Navigating urban ecology: Conceptual and methodological insights","authors":"Ian MacGregor-Fors,&nbsp;Christine C. Rega-Brodsky,&nbsp;D. Johan Kotze,&nbsp;J. Scott MacIvor,&nbsp;Amy K. Hahs,&nbsp;Marco Moretti,&nbsp;Nicholas S. G. Williams,&nbsp;Christopher A. Lepczyk,&nbsp;Kirsten Jung,&nbsp;Madhusudan Katti,&nbsp;Sonja Knapp,&nbsp;Frank A. La Sorte,&nbsp;Max R. Piana,&nbsp;Caragh G. Threlfall,&nbsp;Paige Warren,&nbsp;Charles H. Nilon,&nbsp;Myla F. J. Aronson","doi":"10.1002/ecy.70402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.70402","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Since its consolidation as a sub-discipline of ecology in the late 1990s, urban ecology has grown substantially, enhancing our understanding of how urbanization shapes biodiversity and how biodiversity adapts to urbanization. Inherently interdisciplinary in its scope and application, urban ecology is rooted in multiple theoretical and methodological foundations, potentially making the field overwhelming for newcomers as the key literature is scattered across multiple disciplines. Drawing on the collective expertise of editors and reviewers, we attempt to address common pitfalls noted in studies of biodiversity within urban ecosystems and suggest action items for both the new and experienced urban ecologist. Here, we present key concepts for framing hypothesis-based urban biodiversity research questions, conceptualizing urban settings, accounting for spatial and temporal scales, selecting study systems and meaningful explanatory variables for research questions, and recognizing the social-ecological nature of urban systems. We offer insights and examples, emphasizing the importance of rigorous urban ecological research without imposing constraints on innovation.</p>","PeriodicalId":11484,"journal":{"name":"Ecology","volume":"107 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2026-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecy.70402","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148160782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From lagging to leading: Increased phenological asynchrony in a Batesian mimicry complex","authors":"Blessing Umeh,&nbsp;Markus A. K. Sydenham,&nbsp;Gunnar M. Kvifte,&nbsp;Michael A. Patten","doi":"10.1002/ecy.70432","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.70432","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change can alter species interactions by shifting phenology and species distributions. Batesian mimicry is one such interaction in which mimic protection is often assumed to depend on temporal and spatial overlap with defended models, although recent studies suggest strict synchrony may not always be required. To examine long-term mimic–model phenological dynamics, we compiled flight season data for bumblebee models and their hoverfly mimics across the Scandinavian Peninsula spanning a little over a century and a half. We estimated shifts in mean flight season and the relative order of emergence while accounting for variation in sampling effort among years. The flight periods of several bumblebee models advanced over time, whereas the hoverfly mimic remained largely unchanged. We found a marked shift in seasonal flight time within our bumblebee–hoverfly mimicry system. Historically, mimics flew earlier than their bumblebee models, but in recent decades the pattern has reversed, with models emerging earlier than mimics. This shift reduces temporal overlap between mimics and peak model activity and may alter the conditions under which mimicry provides protection.</p>","PeriodicalId":11484,"journal":{"name":"Ecology","volume":"107 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2026-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecy.70432","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148160739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Infected host competence overshadows heterogeneity in susceptibility in shaping experimental epizootics","authors":"Anna A. Pérez-Umphrey,&nbsp;Kate E. Langwig,&nbsp;James S. Adelman,&nbsp;Lauren M. Childs,&nbsp;Jesse Garrett-Larsen,&nbsp;Dana M. Hawley,&nbsp;Arietta E. Fleming-Davies","doi":"10.1002/ecy.70407","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ecy.70407","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The accelerated rate of disease emergence in recent decades underscores the need to understand conditions that promote or dampen epidemics. Theoretical models consistently show that epidemics are smaller in populations with higher among-individual heterogeneity in susceptibility. Experimental tests of these predictions are rare but critical for understanding how heterogeneity in susceptibility shapes epidemics in natural systems. We directly link data-parameterized models from previous dose response experiments in the house finch and <i>Mycoplasma gallisepticum</i> system to experimental epidemics in replicated aviary mesocosm flocks. We manipulated flock-level heterogeneity in susceptibility by seeding epidemics in flocks composed of either pathogen-naïve or previously exposed birds, which prior work showed have higher heterogeneity in susceptibility relative to pathogen-naïve populations. We tracked epidemics for over 2 months, combining empirical data and stochastic compartmental models to address how heterogeneity in susceptibility changes epidemic severity. Consistent with previous work, estimates of heterogeneity in susceptibility based on coefficients of variation were higher for flocks given prior pathogen exposure relative to pathogen-naïve flocks. However, in contrast to prior work on individually housed birds which showed relatively homogeneous susceptibility for pathogen-naïve birds, the pathogen-naïve flocks in this study were better described by heterogeneous, rather than homogeneous, models of susceptibility. This suggests that flock-level epidemics captured sources of heterogeneity absent in controlled experiments, such as transmission heterogeneity. Finally, although prior exposure conferred protection from disease at the individual level, we did not detect predicted effects of prior exposure and its associated flock-level heterogeneity on prevalence. However, our ability to detect effects of prior exposure on flock-level prevalence was obscured by unexpected variation in the competence of the initially pathogen-naïve index birds that seeded each epidemic. This variation in infectiousness among index birds significantly predicted flock-level prevalence, with low index bird infectiousness contributing to the absence of detectable epidemics in two of the three naïve flocks. Our stochastic simulations generated a wide range of prevalence outcomes for small epidemics over the timescales examined, further underscoring the challenges of measuring transmission dynamics in naturalistic settings, where unexpected variation in host traits such as competence can obscure other factors of interest.</p>","PeriodicalId":11484,"journal":{"name":"Ecology","volume":"107 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147978063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}