Ecological Indicators最新文献

{"title":"Assessing the feasibility of using Machine learning algorithms to determine reservoir water quality based on a reduced set of predictors","authors":"Natalia Walczak ,&nbsp;Zbigniew Walczak","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113556","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113556","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The present study analyses the possibility of assessing water quality using the water quality index (WQI) through the application of four different machine learning algorithms (ML): neural network models (NNM), random forest (RF), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), and linear regression (LR). Water quality was determined based on 5 indicators: P, COD, BOD₅, N total, and total suspended solids TS. The possibility of predicting water quality (WQI index) based on the reduced number of predictors was then analyzed. It was estimated which indicators have the most significant impact on WQI values. The performance of models using different algorithms, as well as those trained on full and reduced data sets, was compared. The models demonstrate high performance in WQI prediction, achieving an R² of 0.999 (for NNM and LR) for the entire dataset, 0.988 (KNN) for the dataset using only three types of predictors, and 0.941 for the dataset using only two predictors (RF). The construction and training of ML models for reduced sets and types of predictors will enable early water quality estimation based on only a few selected parameters. The implementation of ML algorithms will enable more effective water quality management and significantly improve the precision of predictions for critical water parameters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 113556"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143899023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessment of habitat supply and migratory waterbird demand under different autumn water drawdown regimes in Lake Poyang, China","authors":"Jie Wang ,&nbsp;Zhen Han ,&nbsp;Xiaobo Liu ,&nbsp;Shiyan Wang ,&nbsp;Long Sun ,&nbsp;Aiping Huang ,&nbsp;Zhi Jiang ,&nbsp;Yibo Ba","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113544","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113544","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>After 2003, changes in the ‘river-lake’ relationship between Lake Poyang and the Yangtze River led to rapid autumnal water drawdown, exposing mudflats and expanding grasslands. This resulted in a notable increase and concentration of the geese population, while the <em>Grus leucogeranus</em> (Siberian Crane) population remained stable but shifted towards artificial habitats. The study examined the interaction between hydrology, mudflats, vegetation, investigating habitat evolution through field studies and model simulations, and improving the Theil index to evaluate the dynamics between overwintering geese populations and habitat changes, using Siberian Crane as a comparative species. The results indicate that: (1) Compared to pre-2003 conditions, the area of sparse grasslands and shallow water bodies in the Duchang Nature Reserve significantly increased before early November. By early November, sparse grasslands in the Duchang Nature Reserve had peaked, increasing by almost 70 km² compared to the same period before 2003. (2) The Theil index effectively illustrates the supply–demand relationship between goose populations and habitat dynamics. Around 2003, the Theil index for the entire lake fluctuated between 0.05 and 0.25. However, in November before 2003, Duchang’s index surged to 0.8 (indicating a low match), attributed to changes in elevation exposure time within the 9–10 m range. Despite shallow water being suitable habitat, plant degradation led to inadequate food, prompting Siberian Crane to forage in nearby artificial habitats. (3) The normalization of drought heightens the risk of habitat supply–demand imbalance in Poyang Lake. By 2035, the conversion of mudflats to sparse grasslands and sparse grasslands to dense grasslands will accelerate. In response to river–lake changes, the optimal subsidence time for the 12 m water level should shift to around October 20, and the 9 m water level should drop in early November. Ensuring food supply in artificial habitats around the lake will become crucial.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 113544"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143898834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Validating social media data reliability for cultural ecosystem services mapping in data-scarce GIAHS: A mixed-methods approach in hani rice Terraces","authors":"Luying Yang ,&nbsp;Yanbo Li ,&nbsp;Xiaoyan Wei","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113530","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113530","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cultural ecosystem services (CESs) are subjective and intangible, making their assessment challenging. While the application of social media data in assessing and mapping the cultural services of the ecosystem has made rapid progress, this approach relies on active social media users and large sample size of social media data. The reliability of social media data-based method in less developed areas, where such conditions may not be met, remains largely unverified. This study focuses on the Yuanyang Hani Terraces, a Globally Important Agricultural Heritage site located in the remote mountains of southwest China. We compared the value and distribution of CESs as revealed by social media data and questionnaire data, and estimated the applicability of social media data in regions with limited data availability. The results show that: (1) Among the places identified as possessing CESs via questionnaire method, 90 % of places with aesthetic value (AV), 90 % of places with cultural heritage value (CHV), 91 % places with cultural diversity value (CDV), and 80 % of places with scientific &amp; educational value (SEV) were also identified using social media data. The intraclass correlation efficient value for the two-method reached 0.96,0.84,0.79, and 0.76, respectively, indicating a high consistency level. Furthermore, social media data-based method identified more CES places than the traditional method. (2) the CESs in the core area of Hani Terraces showed a pattern of AV &gt; SEV and CHV &gt; CDV. Places with AV mainly located in Duoyishu-Aichun area, Bada-Laoyingzui area and Laohuzui aera. Places with CHV included Shengcun (a local town), museum, famous folk villages, and county houses cluster. Places with SEV were mainly two traditional villages, the museum, and the tourist center where documentary and exhibitions of the Hani Terraces were provided. This study showed that social media data provides highly consistent results with traditional questionnaire method for assessing and mapping CES and presents a cost-effective alternative for similar studies in less developed areas where social media data is sparse.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 113530"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143887681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of climatic factors on eutrophication in the World’s largest lake","authors":"Zohra Mozafari ,&nbsp;Roohollah Noori ,&nbsp;Sayed M. Bateni ,&nbsp;Changhyun Jun ,&nbsp;Dongkyun Kim ,&nbsp;Mohammad Javad Saravani ,&nbsp;Danial Naderian ,&nbsp;Seyed Mostafa Siadatmousavi ,&nbsp;Hossein Afzalimehr ,&nbsp;Jafar Azizpour ,&nbsp;Masoud Sadrinasab ,&nbsp;Majid Hosseinzadeh ,&nbsp;Peiman Kianmehr ,&nbsp;Soroush Abolfathi","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113497","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113497","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climatic and anthropogenic factors both contribute to lake eutrophication. However, the influence of climatic factors, particularly in large, deep, and transboundary lakes, remains poorly understood due to technical challenges, data scarcity, and geopolitical constraints. This is especially true for the Caspian Sea, the world’s largest lake, where its unique continental climate further complicates efforts to quantify the climate contribution to eutrophication. This study leverages extensive datasets from MODIS-Aqua and the ERA5, spanning 2003 to 2021, to develop a generalized additive model (GAM) aimed at investigating the impact of climatic factors on chlorophyll-<em>a</em> (Chl-<em>a</em>) concentrations in the Caspian Sea. Given the sea’s distinct continental climate, complex morphometric characteristics, and significant spatial variability in Chl-<em>a</em>, the basin was divided into 14 subzones to better capture regional responses of Chl-<em>a</em> to climatic changes. The GAM, trained to predict Chl-<em>a</em>, demonstrated acceptable performance (correlation coefficient &gt; 0.5) in 12 of the 14 subzones. Results indicate the predominant influence of photosynthetically active radiation on Chl-<em>a</em> changes in nine subzones, particularly in the southern Caspian Sea. This parameter is critical for regulating light availability for phytoplankton productivity. Sea surface temperature emerged as the second most influential driver of Chl-<em>a</em> levels, likely due to its role in controlling thermal stratification and upwelling, which stimulate phytoplankton growth. Precipitation, by contrast, was found to be the least significant driver of Chl-<em>a</em> levels during the study period. By elucidating the relationships between climatic drivers and Chl-<em>a</em> levels, this study provides a comprehensive understanding of the complex dynamics of eutrophication under changing climate conditions in the Caspian Sea.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 113497"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143887682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Decoding Flow-Ecology Relationships: A Machine learning framework for flow regime Characterization and riparian vegetation prediction","authors":"Yifan Huang ,&nbsp;Xiang Zhang ,&nbsp;Jing Xu ,&nbsp;Liangkun Deng ,&nbsp;Yilun Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113517","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113517","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flow regimes, characterized by magnitude and seasonality dynamics, exert critical controls on ecological communities across spatial scales, with growing alterations from climate change and anthropogenic interventions. Effective ecological restoration requires advancing mechanistic understanding of flow-ecology relationships across time. This study presents a hybrid attribution framework integrating seasonality analysis and machine learning to investigate flow-ecology coupling in China’s Han River Basin. Through systematic analysis of characteristic flow with climate variables, we identify precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) as dominant climatic controllers of extreme flow events. For flow-ecology relationship establishment, we develop an induced machine learning architecture combining structural equation modeling, correlation analysis with LSTM-Transformer networks, achieving high predictive accuracy (R² = 0.8) for riparian normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dynamics. The framework’s prognostic capability is demonstrated through 2025–2035 projections under the SSP2-4.5/5–8.5 scenarios, revealing temperature and PET as pivotal causal drivers of riparian NDVI variability. To efficiently obtain the flow sequences under the future climate scenarios, the study constructs two optimization algorithm-based LSTM-Transformer coupled models, achieving superior simulation results with NSE exceeding 0.95 during the historical period (1981–2023). Future NDVI projections indicate that ecosystem productivity increased with phenological diversity under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, while NDVI dynamics under the SSP5-8.5 scenario reveals vegetation homogenization and increased heat stress. This work contributes to process-aware attribution methodology for ecohydrological systems, providing actionable insights for ecological flow management in climate-stressed basins. The hybrid framework demonstrates transferable potential for deciphering complex flow-ecology interactions across regulated river systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 113517"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143890530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Water quality evaluation, pollution sources apportionment, and environment management strategies in plain reservoirs: A case study of Tianhe Lake, China","authors":"Jing Gao ,&nbsp;Jian Li ,&nbsp;Tianheng Tong ,&nbsp;Jianying Chao ,&nbsp;Zhiqiang Dong ,&nbsp;Jianmin Zhan","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113491","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113491","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tianhe Lake serves as the sole emergency reserve drinking water source for Bengbu City’s 1.16 million residents. Recently, the lake’s water has shown significant signs of eutrophication and contamination. In order to understand the change rules and driving factors behind of water quality degradation, this study conducted water quality monitoring and evaluation of the lake. The study results revealed that the water quality index (WQI) of Tianhe Lake ranged from 60.560 to 81.724, indicating overall water quality fluctuating between “good” and “moderate”. The average trophic level index (TLI) of lake water was 63.23, characterized by moderate eutrophication. Influenced by climatic factors and anthropogenic activities, water quality exhibited significant seasonal and spatial distribution characteristics. Principal component analysis/factor analysis (PCA/FA) results indicated that the key water quality indicators included Chlorophyll-a (Chla), five-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD₅), ammonium nitrogen (NH₃-N), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP). The minimal water quality index (WQI_min) models developed using these five indicators and relative weights exhibited higher accuracy in water quality assessment, with the coefficient of determination (R²) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values of 0.886 and 2.586, respectively. Pollution source apportionment analysis suggested that agricultural runoff and domestic sewage discharge were the predominant contributors to pollutant loads. Endogenous release of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) from lake bottom sediments was identified as a secondary source. This study can enhance public awareness regarding safe water supply from small-scale reservoirs and provide new references and benefits for the environment management of plain reservoirs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 113491"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143890531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Development tendency analysis and early warning of resource and environmental carrying capacity based on system dynamics model in Qaidam salt Lake, China","authors":"Dan Zhang ,&nbsp;Chunping Min ,&nbsp;Hui Yu ,&nbsp;Jianping Wang ,&nbsp;Peng Xue ,&nbsp;Dongmei Yu ,&nbsp;Liang Chen ,&nbsp;Ziwei Rong ,&nbsp;Qi Zhang ,&nbsp;Rongshan Wan","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113516","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113516","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Assessing the environmental carrying capacity for salt lake resources is essential for promoting sustainable development and use. A system dynamics (SD) model was employed to investigate the interrelationships among the economy, water resources, mineral resources, and the environment of Qaidam Salt Lake, scientifically focusing on the developmental requirements for potash and lithium resource development. An integrated evaluation system was developed to measure resource and environmental carrying capacity. Four different development scenarios were simulated to analyze the development tendencies of resource and environmental carrying capacity from 2021 to 2050, with early warnings issued. The results showed that: (1) The integrated carrying capacity of water resources and the environment initially declines before experiencing a subsequent increase. The water resources carrying capacity remains non-overloaded, while the environmental carrying capacity shows signs of overload. (2) By 2050, the carrying capacity for potash is projected to range from 7.91 to 9.17 million tons, whereas the carrying capacity for lithium is expected to range from 0.25 to 0.26 million tons. (3) Under the Business As Usual (BAU) and Increased Demand Scenarios (IDS), orange or red warnings are predicted during 2027–2044 and 2026–2050, respectively. In contrast, the Resource-saving Scenario (RSS) and Technology Enhancement Scenario (TES) result in lower environmental pressure, triggering only up to yellow warnings. A comprehensive assessment of resource consumption, environmental protection, and economic development shows that the TES scenario is most conducive to regional sustainable development. The findings provide a scientific basis for evaluating resource development levels and mitigating risks associated with resource depletion and environmental degradation due to over-exploitation. Furthermore, they contribute to sustainable management strategies for Qaidam Salt Lake and serve as a reference for similar regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 113516"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143887624","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing drought risk of grassland ecosystem in Hulunbuir, China","authors":"Jiarui Han ,&nbsp;Yinglong Sun ,&nbsp;Feiyun Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113522","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113522","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hulunbuir, a globally renowned grassland and critical ecological security barrier in northern China, faces increasing drought risks under climate change and intensifying human activities. To assess the drought risk of the Hulunbuir grassland, this study developed an innovative drought risk assessment framework based on the hazard, vulnerability, and exposure dimensions, with particular emphasis on the impact of human activities and water conservation service. By using multi-source data during growing seasons from 2000 to 2022, the research quantitatively evaluated the drought risk and explored its underlying mechanisms. Approximately 29.4 % of the Hulunbuir grassland was classified as high or moderately high risk, primarily concentrated in the western areas, including New Barag Right Banner, Manzhouli, Hailar and the northern New Barag Left Banner (<em>R</em> &gt; 0.61). In contrast, the eastern part of Hulunbuir experienced moderately low to low drought risk (<em>R</em> ≤ 0.37), showing a distinct zonal distribution from west to east. This study further explores the complexity of grassland drought vulnerability and the regional divergence in drought risk causation, highlighting the critical role of human activities and ecosystem services in risk assessment. The findings provide essential insights for policymakers to develop targeted drought risk management strategies. Region-specific measures, including enhanced monitoring, sustainable grazing practices, and ecological compensation mechanisms, are proposed to enhance grassland resilience and promote sustainable development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 113522"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143881477","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing future land use demands in response to land degradation risk and Socio-Economic impacts","authors":"Ziyue Yu ,&nbsp;Xiangzheng Deng ,&nbsp;Ali Cheshmehzangi ,&nbsp;Yunxiao Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113529","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113529","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Land degradation in Shanxi Province threatens environmental services and socioeconomic growth. The region is a crucial resource-based location for the development of energy from coal mines in China. However, land degradation threatens sustainable development and ecological security. This study seeks to understand the complicated processes of land degradation and carbon stock variations in Shanxi Province’s degraded areas. The objectives include assessing the sensitivity of land degradation using a range of data (land use, soil, vegetation, topography, climate, and socio-economic) and predicting the dynamics of land systems under various environmental and socio-economic impacts and the spatial distribution of carbon stocks. The results reveal that the severity of land degradation has typically lessened after the implementation of the Grain-for-Green project. The proportion of the most severely degraded land at high risk of degradation decreased from 6.02% to 1.29%. Additionally, the proportion of land that is mildly vulnerable has increased by 5.48%. However, rapid urbanization raises land degradation sensitivity in 2020. The overall percentage of critical land degradation sensitivity exceeds one third of the land in Shanxi Province. Therefore, faced with the challenge of balancing ecological conservation and socio-economic development in land use management, this study modeled the land use demands and spatial distribution, and carbon sinks under various scenarios. This study contributes to a better understanding of sustainable land management in fragile ecological zones and enriches the decision-making process for land resource management, particularly in the context of socio-economic policy changes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 113529"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143881479","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bridging the ecosystem service supply-demand imbalance: Spatial flow patterns and driving forces in the Yangtze River midstream urban agglomeration, China","authors":"Xiaowen Zhou ,&nbsp;Xuesong Zhang ,&nbsp;Hongjie Peng ,&nbsp;Wei Ren ,&nbsp;Qiuyu Zou","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113531","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113531","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rapid urbanization has intensified ecosystem service (ES) supply–demand imbalances in urban agglomerations, particularly for food production (FP), water yield (WY), and carbon sequestration (CS). This study analyzes spatial flow patterns and driving forces of these critical services in China’s Yangtze River Midstream Urban Agglomeration (YRMA, 2000–2020). Using Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model (InVEST) for supply–demand quantification and spatial models (Gaussian Two-Step Floating Catchment Area, Breakpoint-Field Strength model) for ecosystem service flows (ESF) simulation. The Geo-Detector model was applied to identify key drivers of flow volume and direction from natural conditions, landscape characteristics, and socio-economic perspectives. We identified three key findings: (1) Temporal analysis of the supply–demand balance index (SDI) revealed divergent trends, with FP showing steady growth, WY demonstrating fluctuating increases, and CS experiencing continuous decline. Spatially, 82 % of supply–demand imbalances concentrated in core urban areas, with spatial extents progressively expanding. (2) FP flow (FPF) initial flows mitigated local deficits (77,100 t max), enhanced by cross-regional transfers (270,500 t max), while WY flow (WYF) covered 48 % of the entire study area and CS flow (CSF) served only 37 % of imbalanced zones, both limited by non-selective flows. (3) Driving forces displayed specific patterns: FPF was influenced by multiple factors, WYF was primarily socio-economically driven, and CSF was mainly determined by natural conditions. These findings offer critical insights for balancing ESs and guiding ecological policies in urban agglomerations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 113531"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143878614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}