Ecological Indicators最新文献

{"title":"Valuing the reciprocating services that humans can provide to ecosystems","authors":"Natalie Stoeckl ,&nbsp;Robert Costanza ,&nbsp;Namgay Dorji ,&nbsp;Ida Kubiszewski ,&nbsp;Bassie Limenih ,&nbsp;Jing Tian ,&nbsp;Satoshi Yamazaki","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113496","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113496","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Long-term sustainability requires that humans consider not only what ecosystems can do for them, but also how humans can ‘give back’ or reciprocate. Indigenous Australians call this ‘caring for country’. Industrial societies have routinely undervalued both the ecosystem services (ES) that nature provides to humans and the reciprocating services (RS) that humans provide to ecosystems. The policy challenge is to find ways of encouraging more RS in industrial societies. The practice of monetarily valuing ES helps highlight their importance and has brought the environment to the forefront of many international policy discussions. We argue that sustainability could be further enhanced by better valuing RS. First, the simple acknowledgement and celebration of RS (without monetary valuation<em>)</em> could change institutions, social norms, and behaviours. Second, numerous institutions now provide financial incentives for people to undertake nature-positive projects (a type of RS), but nature-positive investments are hampered by information failures. Comprehensive assessments of the expected value of proposed projects, could fill information gaps and guide investments towards projects that are likely to generate the most benefit. But these are difficult to do well. We discuss some of the particular difficulties of generating meaningful value estimates for RS that generate diverse benefits at large scale, or that create change in highly connected systems. We note the need for more transdisciplinary research to further improve methods; arguing that if we only do what we are currently good at (valuing discrete benefits at small scale and using crude approaches to scale upwards) then we will continue to overlook, undervalue and under resource many of the critically important RS that support us all.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 113496"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143858816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ecological risk assessment and prediction of riparian zones in the Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River from a spatiotemporal perspective","authors":"Zihan Zhu ,&nbsp;Cheng Zhang ,&nbsp;Yangyang Lu ,&nbsp;Jian Ye ,&nbsp;Guohua Fang ,&nbsp;Changran Sun ,&nbsp;Yun Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113492","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113492","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As transitional areas between rivers and land, riparian zones are important for economic and social development and ecological environmental protection. However, urbanisation has significantly increased the ecological risks in these areas. Focusing on the Yangtze River riparian zone in Jiangsu Province, an ecological risk assessment system with 20 indicators was developed based on a systematic analysis of the ecological risk exposure–response process. The temporal and spatial characteristics of ecological risks in the riparian zone from 2003 to 2023 were analysed using the ecological risk composite index model, Moran index, and Getis-Ord Gi* cold hotspot analysis method, while ecological risks for 2028 and 2033 were predicted using the Grey–Markov chain and PLUS models. The findings indicate that (1) high ecological risk areas were mainly concentrated in the Nanjing, Nantong, and Suzhou River sections, with key risk factors including development intensity, pollutant discharge intensity, and ecological riparian retention rate. (2) From 2003 to 2023, ecological risk displayed an initially increasing and then decreasing trend, which reflects the effectiveness of ecological protection policies. However, industrial areas still face increasing risks. (3) Ecological risks exhibited strong positive correlation characteristics, with zoning policies enhancing the clustering effect. The cold hotspot analysis identified three large and two small hotspot areas. (4) By 2028 and 2033, ecological risk will likely show an overall declining and locally increasing trend, necessitating timely policy adjustments to address the rising ecological risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 113492"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143858819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding the influence of increasing forest biomass on inter-annual evapotranspiration regime using the Budyko framework at forest-dominated landscape","authors":"Wonjin Kim ,&nbsp;Soyoung Woo ,&nbsp;Seongjoon Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113508","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113508","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigated the influence of increasing forest biomass on the evapotranspiration regime using the Budyko framework across annual and inter-annual scales. In the forest-dominated watershed, Yongdam Dam Basin, the Budyko curves were derived for past and present forest biomass conditions revealed significant shifts, characterized by increasing shape factors indicating a transition toward an energy-limit state. The seasonal analysis showed that spring and autumn had higher sensitivity, as these seasons play a key role in balancing water and energy due to their transitional nature. Summer and winter exhibited relatively low sensitivity, with summer stabilized by concentrated rainfall and forest buffering effects, while winter’s minimal hydrological activity resulted in reduced responsiveness. Sensitivity analyses across aridity and moisture conditions underscored the consistent amplification of ET sensitivity with increasing forest biomass, particularly within a certain range of aridity conditions. These findings provide critical insights into the interaction between vegetation and hydrological processes, emphasizing the importance of season-specific management strategies to optimize water resource allocation and mitigate the impacts of climate variability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 113508"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143858817","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Threshold effects of vegetation increase on ecosystem services based on the constraint line method in the Loess Plateau gully Zone","authors":"Xiaoman Liu ,&nbsp;Wenwu Zhao ,&nbsp;Bingbing Gao ,&nbsp;Li Yu ,&nbsp;Jingfang Yuan ,&nbsp;Tao Liang ,&nbsp;Chao Wang ,&nbsp;Qian Zhou ,&nbsp;Yizhong Huan ,&nbsp;Guangjin Zhou ,&nbsp;Jixi Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113470","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113470","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Numerous ecological restoration projects (ERPs) in China aim to reverse ecosystem degradation and enhance human well-being through vegetation increase. However, the nonlinear impacts (e.g., threshold effects) of vegetation recovery on ecosystem services (ESs) remain inadequately explored. This study quantitatively assessed the spatiotemporal evolution of fractional vegetation cover (FVC) and three ESs in the Loess Plateau Gully Zone from 2000 to 2020, examining their spatial correlations across multiple scales. Using the constraint line method, we simulated ES response curves to FVC changes and identified the threshold of FVC influence. The results showed that: (1) from 2000 to 2020, FVC increased significantly, with noticeable variations in ESs changes: carbon sequestration rose markedly, soil conservation showed moderate improvement, and water yield declined. (2) over 95% the area exhibited a significant positive correlation between FVC and both carbon sequestration and soil conservation, whereas 43.95% of the area displayed a strong negative correlation between FVC and water yield; (3) FVC demonstrated a threshold effect on ESs, with vegetation coverage thresholds for carbon sequestration, water yield, and soil conservation identified at 77.64%, 66.67%, and 71.45%, respectively. Additionally, we reveal the intrinsic mechanisms underlying FVC’s constraint effects on ESs and its practical applications. These findings offer novel insights for policy formulation on regional ecological restoration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 113470"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143855785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Research on ecological quality and restoration of fragile mining areas in the Yellow River Basin—The case of Xiegou coal mine","authors":"Xin Sui ,&nbsp;Yiming Sun ,&nbsp;Xuan Wang ,&nbsp;Jin Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113426","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113426","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;div&gt;Coal mining can seriously damage the ecological quality of the environment, especially in the ecologically fragile areas of the Yellow River Basin. Thus, a detailed analysis of the spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of ecological quality in fragile coal mining areas is vital for ensuring the ecological security of the Loess Plateau and restoring the Yellow River Basin’s ecosystems to support sustainable development. The Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform enables efficient extraction of long-term remotely sensed data, significantly enhancing monitoring capabilities for temporal analysis. Therefore, this study evaluates the ecological quality of the mining area for 20 years (2002–2022) based on the Remote Sensing of Ecology Index computed by GEE on a 30 m grid scale in an all-round way of spatial heterogeneity, spatial statistics and trend analysis and combines it with the ecological network constructed through landscape ecology to provide opinions on ecological restoration of the mining area. The results show that (1) the overall ecological quality of the study area shows a decreasing trend, and the change in ecological quality is closely related to urban development and coal mining. (2) The distribution of ecological quality is correlated, with high-value areas concentrated in the gently sloping vegetation areas in the south and north, and most urban and &lt;em&gt;peri&lt;/em&gt;-urban areas are low-value areas. (3) Among the drivers of ecological quality, Net Primary Productivity mainly positively affects the central urban area and negatively affects the steep-slope areas in the north and south. Normalized Vegetation Index positively affects the central and southern areas and negatively affects the urban and higher elevation areas. Temperature positively affects the southeastern portion of the study area and negatively affects the rest of the area, especially the areas with higher slopes, which have significant negative impacts. Precipitation has negative impacts, mainly in urban areas. (4) In terms of the development trend of ecological quality, the proportion of land with ecological deterioration in the future is 53.72 %, which is mainly distributed in the urban, mining, and southeastern areas, and the proportion of areas with ecological improvement in the future is 44.42 %, which is distributed in the northern and southwestern areas with gentle slopes. The ecologically fragile areas of the Yellow River Basin are characterized by complex geological conditions and multifactorial influences, necessitating urgent restoration. This study proposes a hierarchical restoration framework by integrating spatiotemporal ecological quality analysis with an ecological network model (constructed through ’ecological source-resistance surface-corridor’ principles): ’one core, two subzones, three belts, and four nodes.’ This approach aims to enhance ecosystem resilience and guide targeted interventions. By quantifying and visualizing the ecological quality as we","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 113426"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143855784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The hydrological impact of greening and climate change on the Mu Us Sandy land of China under the background of declining ecological efficiency","authors":"Jiazheng Li ,&nbsp;Rong Wu ,&nbsp;Mengjing Li ,&nbsp;Zijun Wang ,&nbsp;Chenfeng Cui ,&nbsp;Junrong Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113495","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113495","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Extensive afforestation activities in the Mu Us Sandy Land (MUSL) of China have profoundly altered the underlying surface conditions, thereby impacting the carbon sequestration and water cycle. However, under the circumstances of the warming-humidifying trends in northwest China, it’s challenging to clarify direct and indirect effects of carbon sequestration increase and climate change on evapotranspiraton (ET) and water resource variation (represented by water yield, WY) in this typical fragile ecological zone. To address this, we calculated the Net Primary Productivity (NPP) by a modified CASA model, proposed an indicator (sensitivity of carbon sequestration, SC) to characterize the ecological efficiency of revegetation and found it decrease significantly (−0.77 a^-1; p &lt; 0.05). Then we incorporated SC into a quantitative attribution analysis framework. The results indicated that the decoupled responses of ET and WY to six driving factors (NPP; precipitation, PRE; temperature, TEMP; vapor pressure deficit, VPD; solar radiation, RAD; wind speed, WS) presented significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity. Spatially, NPP dominated the positive and negative changes in ET and WY respectively, enhancing ET at a rate of 3.52 mm·a^-1 and suppressing WY at a rate of 4.12 mm·a^-1. Among climate factors, PRE and TEMP also explained 12 % and 8 % of ET change, respectively. Temporally, the interaction between NPP and ET steadily shrank at a rate of 0.003 a^-1, while that between most climate factors and ET increased to different degrees, indicating that ET may slightly shift from being driven by vegetation to being driven by climate. From the perspective of SC, we found that the lower the SC in an area, the greater the contribution of climate change to ET. While the unstable increase of PRE, decrease of SC, and the warming-humidifying trends were jointly intensifying the potential water resource crisis. The results help us balance the contradiction between ecological benefits and limited water resources.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 113495"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143851384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The importance of high streamflow and bank erosion for the Bank Swallow, a sentinel species of alluvial river systems","authors":"Gregory H. Golet ,&nbsp;Kristen E. Dybala ,&nbsp;Joseph G. Silveira ,&nbsp;Adam Henderson ,&nbsp;Jennifer Isola ,&nbsp;David H. Wright ,&nbsp;Ron Melcer Jr ,&nbsp;Danika Tsao","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113460","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113460","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Lowland alluvial rivers are rich in biodiversity, yet many are highly degraded, constrained by dams and riprap, and no longer support robust natural communities or critical ecosystem services. Restorative actions are needed, as are ecological indicators for evaluating their effectiveness. We evaluated factors that regulate the population growth rate of Bank Swallows to inform strategies for its recovery and to assess its value as an indicator of riparian ecosystem health. In North America, over the past 50 years, this species, which depends upon erosion for its cutbank breeding habitat, has declined at a rate considered extreme. Understanding the causes of this decline and identifying feasible recovery actions is an urgent conservation priority. In our 25-year study of the Bank Swallow population on the Sacramento River, the breeding population fluctuated widely but declined at an average overall rate of 1.5 % per year. Periodic high streamflow played an important role in maintaining the population, and its effect on the population growth rate was time-lagged by 1 year. This suggests that high flow conditions may have improved rates of Bank Swallow reproductive success and/or survival, leading to increased recruitment into the breeding population in the subsequent year. We also found evidence for density-dependent population growth, suggesting that when the breeding population was large, high-quality nesting habitat was limiting. Our study establishes the critical importance of high streamflow and bank erosion to maintaining Bank Swallow breeding populations. In so doing, it informs recovery strategies for the species and the rivers it inhabits and identifies the Bank Swallow as an appropriate indicator of alluvial river ecosystem processes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 113460"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143851385","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Anthropogenically driven changes of organic matter input to small shallow lake sediments in the Songnen Plain, Northeast China, over the past 200 years","authors":"Huan Fu ,&nbsp;Kunshan Bao ,&nbsp;Yongdong Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113507","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113507","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Analyzing organic matter (OM) input patterns to lake sediments influenced by various types and intensities of human activities is crucial for predicting lake organic carbon (OC) burial under future intensified human interventions. However, such studies remain scarce in small, shallow lakes, although these lakes have high OC burial potential. Here, historical transformation of OM input to sediments of four lakes (LJP, KQP, XLHP, and TLH) from the Songnen Plain (SNP) was determined by paleolimnological methods. A generally comparable OM input pattern was observed across the four lakes over the past ∼ 200 years with unique peculiarities in each lake. Before ∼ 1920 CE, low abundances of short- and middle-chain <em>n</em>-alkanes and high abundances of long-chain <em>n</em>-alkanes, coupled with low aquatic macrophyte input (Paq) values and high terrestrial/aquatic ratio (TAR) suggested dominant terrestrial inputs and limited autochthonous aquatic OM, likely due to minimal human impacts and low nutrient supply. During 1920–1950 CE, increased long-chain <em>n</em>-alkane abundances and TAR indicated amplified terrestrial OM input, driven by intensified soil runoff from agricultural expansion. In Lakes KQP and TLH, elevated short-chain <em>n</em>-alkane abundances indicated a greater input from phytoplankton, probably resulting from early lake eutrophication due to excessive input of nutrient-rich black soil. A further transformation of OM input was recorded since 1950 CE, rising short- and middle-chain <em>n</em>-alkane abundances and Paq values suggested increased inputs from phytoplankton and submerged macrophytes, driven by the notable lake eutrophication from intensified agriculture and fertiliser use. This trend peaked in 2000 CE, reflecting a further intensification of OM input from phytoplankton and submerged plants, probably a result of accelerated lake eutrophication due to aquaculture and tourism-related nutrient discharge. The anthropogenically driven complex and nonlinear transformation of OM inputs to lake sediments provides critical insights for predicting OC sequestration in small shallow lakes under future environmental scenarios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 113507"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143851376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessment of water ecological health in shallow lakes: A new framework based on water resource-environment-ecology","authors":"Yanru Tao,&nbsp;Qiujin Xu,&nbsp;Mingke Luo,&nbsp;Wenjing Dong,&nbsp;Yan Pang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113498","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113498","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In lake ecosystems, human disturbances can severely damage ecological integrity, particularly in shallow lakes. Existing research on water ecological health (WEH) assessment has often overlooked critical aspects such as water resources, water environment, and water ecology, which makes the previous research methods less effective. Therefore, it is essential to explore a new framework for addressing the challenges of WEH assessment in shallow lakes. In this study, Taihu Lake in China between 2011 and 2023 was used as a case study. This paper first constructed a new framework based on water resource-environment-ecology (WREE), which includes seven key indices, and the reasons for this change were explored. Additionally, the eutrophication assessment and the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) evaluation method were employed to assess the effectiveness of this new approach framework. The results show that the water quality in Taihu Lake improved to a certain extent from 2011 − 2023, whereas eutrophication and cyanobacterial blooms have not significantly improved, and WEH has been classified into the medium state (level III). In particular, the WEH values were relatively low in 2013 and 2017, and showed a fluctuating downward trend from 2020 to 2023, which may be attributed to meteorological factors and human activities leading to an increase in pollution-tolerant species and a decrease in biodiversity, ultimately resulting in a deterioration of WEH. The long-term WEH assessment results for Taihu Lake highlight the applicability of the framework based on the WREE, and can be widely applied to similar lake ecosystems but are not applicable to short-term seasonal variations. Given the impacts of increased human activities and climate change, the WREE framework provides valuable insights for the sustainable development and effective management of lake ecosystems, while also enhancing the existing WEH assessment theory.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 113498"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143850806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The carbon tug-of-war: Assessing Dongjiang waterfront’s carbon neutrality potential in the battle between emissions and sinks","authors":"Mengni Zhang,&nbsp;Pingting Hu,&nbsp;Jingxian Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113481","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113481","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban waterfronts occupy a pivotal position in the “carbon tug-of-war”, balancing the dual challenges of rising carbon emissions and declining sink capacities. This study investigates the Dongjiang waterfront in Dongguan City to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon sources and sinks, employing the PLES (Production-Living-Ecological Spaces) framework, the STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology)<!--> <!-->model, grey relational analysis (GRA) method, and the GM (1,1) (Grey Model First-Order One-Variable) model. The findings reveal three key insights: (1) Shifting balance in the carbon struggle: From 2000 to 2022, carbon sink capacity declined by 47.6 %, while total emissions rose to 1.17 million tons, with per capita emissions reaching 5.30 tons, highlighting an increasing imbalance in the emissions-sink competition; (2) Nonlinear carbon sink dynamics: Contrary to a gradual decline, carbon sinks—particularly aquatic ecosystems—exhibit abrupt tipping points due to urbanization and industrial expansion. After an initial sharp drop, sink capacity temporarily stabilized before entering a phase of accelerated deterioration, reflecting intensifying ecological stress in the emissions-sinks battle; and (3) Spatial disparities &amp; emission drivers: A significant proportion of emissions originates from urban-industrial areas, while rural areas contribute minimally to carbon sink. Key emission drivers include urbanization (+1.402 %), energy consumption (+0.095 %), and population density (+0.201 %), whereas waterfront ecological space helps mitigate emissions (−0.147 %). To address these multifaceted challenges, the study proposes the 5R framework—Reduction, Reuse, Recycling, Rethink, and Repair, integrating emissions reduction with ecological restoration as a strategy for sustainable waterfront development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11459,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Indicators","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 113481"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143850856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}