Earth Surface Processes and Landforms最新文献

{"title":"Reconstructing active tectonics from land–sea correlations based on cross-interpretation of core and seismic data for the Tyrrhenian coastal segment in southern Italy","authors":"Giuseppe Corrado,&nbsp;Sabrina Amodio,&nbsp;Pietro P. C. Aucelli,&nbsp;Dario Gioia,&nbsp;Gerardo Pappone,&nbsp;Marcello Schiattarella","doi":"10.1002/esp.6049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.6049","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The current setting of most Tyrrhenian coastal plains in central-southern Italy is the result of the interaction between sedimentary inputs, tectonic movements, and sea level changes during the Quaternary. Based on a comprehensive review of data from the literature on the stratigraphic setting of the coastal plains of Volturno and Garigliano Rivers, and with the final output being a validated 3D geological model, this study provides new elements for improved definition of the chronological intervals of fault activity. Specifically, the ages of tectonic deformations and/or subsidence are crucial for future estimates of coastal hazards induced by both seismicity and coastal inundations. Our multidisciplinary approach includes (i) definition of the Late Quaternary sedimentary architecture by revision of a large amount of core data, (ii) acquisition of offshore seismic reflection data and their correlation with sedimentary bodies of the coastal plains, and (iii) structural analysis of the main faults. These investigations were conducted on the marine segment offshore Mount Massico and on contiguous portions of the Volturno and Garigliano alluvial–coastal plains. The acquisition of seismic and core data enabled the definition of the sedimentary architecture of the coastal sectors of the plains. The Mt. Massico ridge (northern Campania), comprising Mesozoic–Cenozoic units of the orogenic chain and morphologically separating the two plains, was the subject of mesostructural analysis of fault orientation and kinematics. The seismic lines were calibrated correctly using two close stratigraphic core logs from the Garigliano Plain. The identification of correlatable and/or coeval stratigraphic/seismic units reveals land–sea correlations. These units are clearly affected by recent faulting expressed by complex deformation patterns, such as flower structures and strike-slip faults.</p>","PeriodicalId":11408,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/esp.6049","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143116301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Restoring streams with large wood: An analysis of geomorphic changes 7 years post-restoration in small coastal streams","authors":"Madelyn M. Maffia,&nbsp;Catalina Segura,&nbsp;Christopher M. Lorion,&nbsp;Erik Suring,&nbsp;Dana R. Warren","doi":"10.1002/esp.6041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.6041","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Introducing large wood (LW) into streams for restoration purposes is a common practice, as it creates habitat through processes like scouring, deposition and sediment sorting. However, while monitoring often focuses on short-term (&lt;3 years) or long-term (&gt;10 years) changes in habitat features, there is a lack of understanding regarding annual geomorphic changes over relatively long periods. In this study, we investigated annual geomorphic adjustments (channel geometry and substrate size) over 7 years in three tributaries of the Mill Creek watershed (Oregon, USA). The 7-year period included moderate to high flows, with peak annual flow exceeding bankfull flow (Q_bf) 2–5 times and flows being above half Q_bf on average 4–20 days per year. Data included topographic surveys and surface pebble counts collected from 2014 (1 year before LW) to 2021 (6 years after LW). We quantified scour and deposition and estimated sediment grain sizes and sorting from topographic surveys and pebble counts. Our analysis revealed that stream size influenced geomorphic adjustment, with smaller streams experiencing more scouring compared with larger streams over the 6 years. LW structures promoted increased scouring at the cross-section scale, with a strong relationship found between volumetric blockage ratio and scour. In our case, the most significant scouring changes were associated with volumetric blockage ratios between 35% and 50%; further research is needed to investigate scouring for higher blockage ratios. Instream changes in scour and deposition peaked around 3–4 years after LW introductions but persisted until the end of the monitoring period. Sediment size dynamics were influenced more by time since restoration than by proximity to LW jams. While LW introductions increased sediment sorting into patches, the degree of sorting declined 5–6 years post-restoration at all sites. Our findings offer insights into the long-term persistence and magnitude of instream changes associated with LW introductions.</p>","PeriodicalId":11408,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143116304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Semi-empirically modelling barrier sediment transport in response to hydrodynamic forcing using UAV-derived topographical data (Holgate, New Jersey)","authors":"W. John Schmelz,&nbsp;Ashlyn Spector,&nbsp;Lauren Neitzke-Adamo,&nbsp;Kenneth G. Miller","doi":"10.1002/esp.6052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.6052","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We conducted monthly surveys, from October 2020 to May 2021, of coastal topography in Holgate, New Jersey. Using unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-photogrammetry and RTK-GNSS equipment, we generated digital elevations models and cross-section profiles, capturing spatiotemporal variability in volumetric change. We measured a total loss of 27 500 ± 10 500 m³ of subaerial sediment through the study. From October 2020 to February 2021, over 59 600 ± 10 500 m³ of sediment was eroded, followed by 32 100 ± 10 500 m³ of deposition from February to May 2021. We developed a semi-empirical model correlating the measured geomorphological change to wave energy and water-level variations. The calibrated model identified storm conditions that caused erosion and that waves from the south to southeast caused more erosion than those from the east to northeast. These results emphasise that alongshore transport represents a critical component of sediment transport dynamics relevant to beach erosion. Using the calibrated model, we quantified the impact of water-level variations and wave energy on net sediment transport for a stretch of barrier coastline. Specifically, a water-level increase of 0.14 m (equivalent to a 1<i>σ</i> variation) generated slightly less erosion (1.18 m³/m per 48 h) than the same variance-based increase in wave energy, which generates 1.44 m³/m of erosion per 48 h. These variables strongly covary. Alongshore transport modulates the relationship, increasing erosion 0.9 m³/m per 48 h with a 1<i>σ</i> shift in wave energy directed alongshore. Forcing from strong storms, hindcast from 8 years of data, can produce 15–20 m³/m of erosion per 48 h. This modelling approach represents a methodology to produce estimates of potential erosion under predicted storm conditions, which is inherently valuable to coastal management and resilience planning. Our study demonstrates cost-effective data collection and robust analytical methods that can be applied globally to benefit both the understanding of coastal geomorphology and local communities through data-driven natural resource management.</p>","PeriodicalId":11408,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/esp.6052","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143115893","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"AI-assisted interpretation of changes in riparian woodland from archival aerial imagery using Meta's segment anything model","authors":"Martin Dawson,&nbsp;Henry Dawson,&nbsp;Angela Gurnell,&nbsp;John Lewin,&nbsp;Mark G. Macklin","doi":"10.1002/esp.6053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.6053","url":null,"abstract":"<p>An implementation of Meta's 2023 foundation artificial intelligence model, Segment Anything (SAM) is tested and used to assist in mapping changes in the extent of riparian woodland using publicly available archival aerial imagery along three gravel bed, meandering, river reaches in rural settings in the UK. Using visual prompts in interactive mode, this newly applied approach is shown to deliver substantial time savings over manual digitisation techniques and, for the type of imagery and the small-scale deployed, potentially greater accuracy. When applied to high-resolution (25 cm) aerial imagery SAM appears to be a practical and useful method for examining vegetation and landform change in a manner that has previously only been feasible through detailed field studies. The extent of riparian wood increased by 37–46% between 1999 and 2022 along all three reaches with extension occurring in three main situations: lateral expansion of existing woodland patches along stable or near stable banks; localised bankside establishment of trees transplanted under flood conditions; and progressive colonisation of point bars that developed through channel migration. Considering these factors, important conditions for the establishment, survival and expansion of riparian wood are discussed and likely differences in species distribution according to the geomorphic context are highlighted.</p>","PeriodicalId":11408,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/esp.6053","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143115710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"New insights into the thermo-tectonic development of the Suez rift within the framework of the northern Arabian–Nubian Shield","authors":"Sherif Mansour,&nbsp;Noriko Hasebe,&nbsp;Ulrich A. Glasmacher,&nbsp;Akihiro Tamura,&nbsp;Mohamed K. El-Shafei","doi":"10.1002/esp.6054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.6054","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Gulf of Suez is a young continental rift, the flanks of which make up the Arabian–Nubian Shield basement complex that formed during the East African Orogeny. The impact and significance of the consecutive tectono-thermal activities on the Arabian–Nubian Shield and the rifting processes in the Gulf of Suez remain uncertain. Combining zircon and apatite fission-track dating with time–temperature modelling has been effective in addressing these issues. We here present thermochronological data for 20 basement samples collected from the Samra Mountain region at the northern tip of the Gulf of Suez's eastern flank. Zircon fission-track data revealed two age groups separated spatially and dating from ca. 652 ± 25 Ma and ca. 426 ± 31 Ma. In contrast, apatite fission-track data revealed three spatially separated age groups dating from ca. 473 ± 10 Ma, ca. 269 ± 29 Ma and ca. 101 ± 12 Ma. Reconstructed time–temperature historical records revealed four distinct rapid cooling pulses (i.e. Neoproterozoic, Devonian–Carboniferous, Cretaceous and Oligocene–Miocene) consistent with the tectonic history and regional geology. By integrating our findings with the regional tectonic and sedimentation histories, the relationship between cooling events and exhumation events could be inferred. These cooling pulses were activated in response to four events: (1) the Precambrian–Cambrian post-accretion erosional event, (2) the Devonian–Carboniferous Variscan tectonic event, (3) the Cretaceous Gondwana disintegration and (4) the Oligocene–Miocene Gulf of Suez rifting, respectively. In the studied region, no thermal overprint was seen in association with the rifting in the Gulf of Suez, suggesting that the region had been segmented into northern and southern segments. A southward thermal source, the Arabian margin plume, caused an increase in the rift flank elevation and heat flow in the southern Sinai.</p>","PeriodicalId":11408,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143115384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Subglacial hydrology insights from eskers developed atop soft beds of the Laurentide ice sheet","authors":"Francisca A. Núñez Ferreira,&nbsp;Lucas K. Zoet,&nbsp;J. Elmo Rawling III,&nbsp;Marianne Haseloff,&nbsp;Matt Rehwald,&nbsp;David J. Ullman","doi":"10.1002/esp.6037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.6037","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Glacial landforms provide a valuable record from which to study the history and dynamics of past ice sheets. Eskers record paleo subglacial hydrologic and sediment transport conditions because they are composed of sediment deposited by water flowing through subglacial channels. Despite decades of study, there is still debate about their formation mechanisms and little investigation of the differences between eskers formed over soft and hard beds. To address this complexity, we analysed eskers formed over soft beds along the southern margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) in the Lake Superior region. This included developing a new method to calculate the basal effective pressure gradient during esker formation along the subglacial channel using grain size estimates from a 20 m tall esker exposure.</p><p>The morphometry and distribution of eskers were mapped with GIS to quantify their sinuosity and lateral spacing, and to compare those to the underlying bedrock elevation and sediment thickness. Lateral spacing decreased over time as the ice margin retreated, suggesting that melt rates increased during the LIS deglaciation. Furthermore, the relation between esker distribution and sediment thickness showed that eskers formed preferentially over thinner layers of sediment, irrespective of whether erosion occurred before their formation. The sedimentology of the Cable Esker exhibits a non-monotonic pattern in channel boundary shear stress ranging from 10 to 300 Pa, alongside a basal effective pressure gradient fluctuating between −9 to −70 Pa m⁻¹. Negative basal effective pressure gradients are consistent with esker formation in channels close to the glacier terminus, which suggests lower water pressure than normally assumed. This, combined with dynamic water level fluctuations within the esker channel, supports the theory of the formation of eskers near the ice margin.</p>","PeriodicalId":11408,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/esp.6037","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143113913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Experimental and numerical investigation of water flow behaviour in sharply curved 60° open-channel bends","authors":"Omid Seyedashraf,&nbsp;Ali Akbar Akhtari","doi":"10.1002/esp.6036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.6036","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Understanding secondary flows in sharply curved open-channel bends is key for analysing the flow patterns in rivers and and designing effective hydraulic structures. This study employs both experimental and computational methods to investigate the flow characteristics in a sharply curved 60° open-channel bend. The primary objective is to enhance understanding of flow behaviours in such configurations. For numerical simulations, we utilize the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations, applying the volume-of-fluid free surface model to simulate air-water interactions alongside the standard k-ε and renormalized group (RNG) k-ε turbulence models. Our findings reveal the emergence of helical currents driven by centrifugal forces at the bend's onset, which guide the fluid particles from the channel bottom to the convex (inner) bank and then to the concave (outer) bank at the surface. We observe a progressive increase in secondary flow intensity and energy dissipation along the bend, peaking at the terminal section. Notably, maximum flow velocity occurs near the convex wall accompanied by nonlinear water surface behaviours. Additionally, flow separation tendencies near the convex wall are noted after two-thirds of the curvature. Quantitatively, the flow velocity at the convex bank was observed to be 1.70 times higher than at the concave bank within the bend. The mean absolute errors between experimental data and the standard k-ε and RNG k-ε models are 3.20 and 3.12, respectively, indicating the accuracy of the RNG k-ε model.</p>","PeriodicalId":11408,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143113969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"River confinement and braiding loss in Canterbury region, Aotearoa New Zealand","authors":"Victoria Barlow,&nbsp;Peter Ashmore","doi":"10.1002/esp.6051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.6051","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In relation to the wider concern that rivers in Aotearoa New Zealand have been narrowed by river control and land-use encroachment, and that iconic braided patterns are being lost, nine braided rivers from the Canterbury region were studied to compare river width, pattern type and braiding intensity between the mid-1900s and the present based on mapping from aerial images. Channel narrowing occurred along &gt;90% (~490 km) of the length of the rivers studied, 375 km of which were historically braided. In total, the rivers narrowed by an average of 43% (48% for braided reaches). Coinciding with narrowing, braided reaches lost 1.3 channels, on average. Overall, 20% (over 100 km) length of the rivers recorded a change from braided to more simple pattern types including wandering (~18%) and single channel (~1%). The relationship of channel width and pattern change demonstrates the predictability of braiding change based on channel narrowing. As channels narrow, the likelihood of pattern simplification and change increases, although the amount of narrowing required to induce change depends on the initial width and pattern. Narrowing causes a reduction of braiding intensity even when the channel pattern remains braided. Based on these results, a predictor of channel pattern change and reduction of braiding intensity, based only on channel width and width change, can be applied to aid room-for-river management plans for conserving or restoring braided river morphologies. Channel width provides a general criterion for the prediction of braiding intensity and channel pattern threshold illustrating the scale-related effects on channel pattern.</p>","PeriodicalId":11408,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/esp.6051","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143113970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Morphological characteristics of permanent gullies and their relationship with topography in two typical agro-geomorphic regions of Northeast China","authors":"Zhuoxin Chen,&nbsp;Qingchen Song,&nbsp;Mingming Guo,&nbsp;Pengchong Zhou,&nbsp;Lixin Wang,&nbsp;Qiang Chen,&nbsp;Xingyi Zhang","doi":"10.1002/esp.6044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.6044","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Gully erosion poses significant challenges to land degradation and food security. The Mollisols region of Northeast China (MNC) is the main grain-producing region in China. The low mountainous and hilly region (M_FI) and the rolling hilly region (R_FI), as the prominent topographic units in MNC, have suffered significantly from severe gully erosion. However, the actual situation and influencing factors of gully erosion in both regions are still unclear. Thus, we selected two field investigation regions of 103.4 km² in M_FI and 123.9 km² in R_FI to obtain a detailed inventory of gullies. Results showed that the gully number density in M_FI was 25.7 No. km⁻², 8.3 times greater than in R_FI. Conversely, the gully average gully length (511.7 m), width (7.8 m) and depth (2.8 m) in R_FI were 156.8%, 112.6% and 37.4% greater than those in M_FI, respectively. The three types of gullies, developed in different land uses (GF, farmland; GW, woodland; GR, unpaved road), had significantly varying morphologies. In R_FI, GF was the longest, and GW was the widest and deepest. Conversely, in M_FI, GR was the longest but exhibited the least width and depth. Notably, farmland posed the highest risk of gully erosion in both M_FI and R_FI, with 74.4% and 89.6% of the gullies developed there, respectively. Topography was the critical factor influencing the differences in gully erosion between the two regions. To effectively control gully erosion, topographic conditions most susceptible to gully erosion should be prioritized for attention, e.g., slopes of 8–10° and 2–4° were the slope intervals most likely to contribute to gully development in M_FI and R_FI, respectively. We provide the potential for large-scale prediction of gully erosion. Corresponding prediction models based on gully area were provided and the effectiveness of the predictions was improved by separating different land uses. The study's findings could serve as a valuable foundation for gully erosion control and prediction for MNC.</p>","PeriodicalId":11408,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143113816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of the impact of climate change on rainfall for potential landslide triggering in Japan","authors":"Haruka Tsunetaka,&nbsp;Wataru Murakami,&nbsp;Katsuhiro Nakao,&nbsp;Slim Mtibaa","doi":"10.1002/esp.6050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.6050","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Intense rainfall events associated with climate change may increase future landslide hazards. Therefore, future landslide probability should be constrained using rainfall projections from global climate models (GCMs). However, because landslides can occur in association with various rainfall patterns, such as short-duration (few hours) intense rainfall to long-term accumulated rainfall over a few days, general projections of daily rainfall are inadequate for evaluation of rainfall with landslide-triggering potential. To address this problem, this study adopted a new approach using 72-h GCM rainfall projections based on 100-year rainfall return levels and applied it to 10 regions in Japan where landslides widely occur. We found that rainfall with landslide-triggering potential becomes more frequent toward 2,100 in response to intensified global warming. In some regions, under the scenario that future greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase owing to inadequate regulation, intense rainfall with landslide-triggering potential is projected to become more frequent and widespread, especially after approximately 2060. In relation to this projected spread of the areas of persistent rain, rainfall with landslide-triggering potential might occur synchronously in two to five regions. However, even under the scenario that aerosol emissions are reduced rapidly to mitigate global warming, rainfall might intensify before 2060 in some regions, resulting in a projection of high landslide probability. The presented projections are not definitive and require further refinement; however, they do suggest that the impact of climate change on the frequency and region of hazard of landslide occurrence might change in the future depending on the effort made to mitigate global warming.</p>","PeriodicalId":11408,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/esp.6050","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143113331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}