Da Wu, Xiao Lang, Di Zhang, L. Eriksson, Wengang Mao
{"title":"A Statistical ARIMA Model to Predict Arctic Environment for NSR Shipping","authors":"Da Wu, Xiao Lang, Di Zhang, L. Eriksson, Wengang Mao","doi":"10.1115/omae2021-62783","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/omae2021-62783","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Reliable sea ice concentration (SIC) information assists the safe and energy-efficient ship navigation along the Northern Sea Route (NSR). In particular, the accurate SIC forecast is a top priority. This study proposes a statistical interpolation method to reduce the errors induced by the traditional interpolation method. An auto-regressive integrated moving average (AR/MA) model is developed based on reanalysis data. The AR/MA model can be used for short-term SIC forecasts along the NSR. Model validation has been conducted through a specially designed cross-validation. The route availability is estimated according to the SIC forecast. The results indicate that the specified NSR will be open for shipping from 2021 to 2024. The work also indicates the feasibility of the proposed statistical models to assist NSR shipping management.","PeriodicalId":108271,"journal":{"name":"Volume 7: Polar and Arctic Sciences and Technology","volume":"200 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116295929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On Uncertainty Assessment of Fatigue Damage of Propulsion Shaft Under Ice Impact","authors":"Etienne Purcell, A. Nejad, M. Valavi, A. Bekker","doi":"10.1115/omae2021-62288","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/omae2021-62288","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 In this paper, the importance of maintenance of marine propulsion is discussed with specific focus on the use of condition monitoring to inform maintenance schedules. The design requirements of DNV GL for shafts expected to operate in ice infested waters is adapted and a method is proposed to calculate the short-term fatigue damage during ice impacts. This method uses the Palmgren-Miner rule to calculate fatigue damage based on a transient, lumped-mass model simulation of the shaft with ice loads calculated from shaft measurements using inverse methods. Relevant sources of uncertainty in this assessment method are identified and quantified in order to express the short-term fatigue damage in a stochastic form. Sources of uncertainty include uncertainty in the calculation of ice loads, uncertainty of the transient analysis and uncertainty regarding the actual failure of the shaft as predicted by the S-N material curve and the Palmgren-Miner method. Uncertainties that influence the stress history are found to be the greatest contributor to fatigue damage uncertainty. A method is discussed that calculates the remaining useful life of the shaft as a function of short-term fatigue damage and the identified sources of uncertainty. The S.A. Agulhas is used as a case study to quantify the fatigue damage.","PeriodicalId":108271,"journal":{"name":"Volume 7: Polar and Arctic Sciences and Technology","volume":"59 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132830906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Finite Element Model for Compressive Ice Loads Based on a Mohr-Coulomb Material and the Node Splitting Technique","authors":"H. Herrnring, Sören Ehlers","doi":"10.1115/omae2021-62803","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/omae2021-62803","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper presents a finite element model for the simulation of ice-structure interaction problems, which are dominated by crushing at low and medium confinement ratios. The failure mode of ice depends significantly on the strain rate. At very low impact velocities the ice behaves ductile, whereas at high velocities the ice reacts in brittle mode. This paper focuses on the brittle mode, which is the dominating mode for ship-ice interactions.\u0000 A multitude of numerical approaches for the simulation of ice can be found in the literature. Nevertheless, the literature approaches do not seem suitable for the simulation of continuous ice-structure interaction processes at low and medium confinement ratios in brittle mode. Therefore, this paper seeks to simulate the ice-structure interaction with the FE method. To preserve mass and energy as much as possible, the node splitting technique is applied, instead of the often used element erosion technique. The intention of the presented model is not to reproduce individual cracks with high accuracy, because this is not possible with a reasonable element size, due to the large number of crack fronts forming during the ice-structure interaction process. The objective of the here introduced Mohr-Coulomb Nodal Split (MCNS) model is to represent the essential material behavior of ice in a efficient formulation. To validate the findings of the model, the simulated maximum ice forces and contact pressures are compared with experiments.","PeriodicalId":108271,"journal":{"name":"Volume 7: Polar and Arctic Sciences and Technology","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131476520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
D. Myland, Q. Hisette, Emre Cilkaya, Yusuf Sefa Özhan
{"title":"Experimental Investigation of Aspects Influencing the Level Ice Resistance of Ships With Non-Typical Icebreaking Bow Shapes","authors":"D. Myland, Q. Hisette, Emre Cilkaya, Yusuf Sefa Özhan","doi":"10.1115/omae2021-62254","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/omae2021-62254","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 For non-typical icebreaking ships the hull-ice interaction process in level ice comprises a combination of many different phenomena which is difficult to be described by existing straightforward approaches. In order to gain knowledge about the operability of such non-typical hull shapes in level ice, a study has been carried out to identify and evaluate the level ice resistance as well as its distribution along the hull of ships with non-typical icebreaking bow shapes with high stem and/or small waterline angles. For this purpose, one ship model has been manufactured and instrumented with several multi-axis load cells in the bow region of the waterline as well as with one large six-component load scale between the bow and the stern. Performing resistance model tests at several loading conditions in model ice sheets of different thickness and at multiple speed values allows obtaining relevant information to meet the goals of the study. The developed methodology and the analysis of the measured loads have been described in previous publications. As direct continuation, the present paper focuses on investigation of the ice floe characteristics and its linkage to the ice properties. Moreover, analysis results related to the crushing portion of the total resistance in ice, the friction between ice and ship model hull as well as the ship model motions during ice model testing are presented within the paper.","PeriodicalId":108271,"journal":{"name":"Volume 7: Polar and Arctic Sciences and Technology","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127314554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
R. Taylor, I. Turnbull, Eleanor Bailey-Dudley, R. Pritchett
{"title":"Full-Scale In-Situ Four-Point Beam Bending Field Tests on Sea Ice","authors":"R. Taylor, I. Turnbull, Eleanor Bailey-Dudley, R. Pritchett","doi":"10.1115/omae2021-63163","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/omae2021-63163","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The flexural strength of ice is not a basic material property, but rather is an estimate of the maximum stress in the outermost fiber of an ice specimen when it fails in bending. Such conditions correspond to a number of important engineering applications, such as interactions between ice and a sloping structure or between ice and ships. Ice flexural strength is therefore highly important for calculating ice pressures and forces of interest for engineering design. While there has been considerable discussion in the literature regarding scale effects related to ice crushing against a vertical structure, scale effects in relation to bending failure have received much less attention. To this end, more flexural strength data for large, full-thickness sea ice beams are needed. To address these data gaps, a field data collection program was carried out in Pistolet Bay, Newfoundland over two field seasons (2017–2018). During this program, large sea ice beams were tested in-situ using a custom four-point bending apparatus, which was comprised of several main subsystems (e.g., the ram loading system, the platen, the ubrackets, and the hydraulic system). The sea ice beams were completely cut free from the ice cover and loaded at four points, such that the center load is parallel, but opposed to, the loads at the ends of the beam. All tests were done in-situ so that no brine drainage took place and the temperature gradient remained consistent. Tests were carried out for several combinations of beam geometry, which were scaled relative to the ice thickness. In addition to flexural strength, during the Pistolet Bay field program, the physical properties of the ice were measured (temperature, salinity, density). In this paper, a description of the field apparatus, test program and results from the full-thickness in-situ four-point beam bending tests are presented, along with a discussion of practical implications and future work.","PeriodicalId":108271,"journal":{"name":"Volume 7: Polar and Arctic Sciences and Technology","volume":"69 5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127988020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Numerical Simulation of Model Test in Pre-Sawn Ice by CFD-DEM Coupled Method","authors":"D.C. Seo, Jungyong Wang","doi":"10.1115/omae2021-61419","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/omae2021-61419","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Arctic shipping activities have been steadily increased due to global warming and economic benefit. As a result, there are more demands to estimate the ship performance in various ice conditions at the early design stage. In this paper, a CFD-DEM coupled approach was applied to estimate the ice resistance and broken ice behavior around the hull including hydrodynamic interactions. For the simulation, the moving ship in the stationary ice field was implemented using the overset grid technique. The estimated ice resistance as well as ice behaviors around the hull from the simulations were compared with model test results and underwater videos of the same vessel in a similar ice condition. The results demonstrated good agreement with model test measurements and further improvement for actual application was discussed in the paper.","PeriodicalId":108271,"journal":{"name":"Volume 7: Polar and Arctic Sciences and Technology","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126086496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Paul Stuckey, Mark Fuglem, A. Younan, Hamidreza Shayanfar, Yujian Huang, Lei Liu, T. King
{"title":"Iceberg Load Software Update Using 2019 Iceberg Profile Dataset","authors":"Paul Stuckey, Mark Fuglem, A. Younan, Hamidreza Shayanfar, Yujian Huang, Lei Liu, T. King","doi":"10.1115/omae2021-63418","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/omae2021-63418","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The Iceberg Loads Software (ILS) was developed initially to determine design iceberg loads for the Hebron Gravity Base Structure (GBS). The ILS framework has since been adapted for assessing iceberg loads on other structures such as the West White Rose Platform, subsea protection structures, pipelines laid on the seabed and floating production structures (spars and FPSOs). When the ILS was developed, the available iceberg geometry dataset (collected in the 1980s) was relatively limited, which required certain assumptions (i.e., flat wall interaction) and parametrizations (i.e., length distribution, length/draft/mass relationships, eccentricity, etc.) in the formulation of the interaction model. Renewed iceberg profile collection began in 2012, with ongoing improvements in the data collection methodology such that, of the 200 iceberg profiles collected from 2012 onwards, 134 were collected in 2019. The profile data were collected using LiDAR for the iceberg sail and multibeam sonar for the keel. The ILS has been updated using the recent three dimensional (3D) profiles, and a comparison of original versus updated iceberg load distributions for a generic structure show a decrease in loads. Updated ILS loads are compared with another iceberg load analysis tool that directly incorporates iceberg profile data rather than relying on some of the assumptions and parametrizations used in the original ILS formulation. This comparison shows some differences, particularly for extreme loads, which are the subject of on-going investigation.","PeriodicalId":108271,"journal":{"name":"Volume 7: Polar and Arctic Sciences and Technology","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128211442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Research on the Influences of Broken Ice Parameters on Maneuverable Forces of Ice-Going Ship Oblique Sailing","authors":"Shenyu Xuan, Cheng-sheng Zhan, Zuyuan Liu, Binfeng He, Qiao-sheng Zhao, Wei Guo","doi":"10.1115/omae2021-62562","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/omae2021-62562","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The broken ice is one of the most common ice conditions for ice-going ships, and the research of ship maneuvering movement in broken ice field can improve sailing safety. In this paper, the discrete element method (DEM) was adopted to study the maneuverable forces, including resistance and transverse force, of ice-going ship oblique sailing in broken ice fields. First, the Araon model tests data of Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology (KIOST) was used to verify the ice resistance of direct sailing under different ice sizes and model speeds, and the numerical results are in good agreement with the test results. Second, the influences of broken ice parameters (including concentration, thickness, and shape) on ship-ice interaction and maneuverable forces distribution were researched. The maneuverable forces on the ice-going ships are mainly from the ship-ice interaction. The time history curves of maneuverable forces were analyzed from the average value of maneuverable forces, the average value of peak maneuverable forces, and the number of peaks. Besides, the parameters of broken ice have a heavy influence on the movement of broken ice around the hull, such as accumulating and sliding. The analysis of the broken ice movement contributes to understanding the influences of broken ice parameters on ice-going ships.","PeriodicalId":108271,"journal":{"name":"Volume 7: Polar and Arctic Sciences and Technology","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114264409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Development and Implementation of an Arctic Sea Route Search System","authors":"Takeshi Sugimura, H. Yamaguchi, H. Yabuki","doi":"10.1115/omae2021-62238","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/omae2021-62238","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 With the reduction in extent of Arctic Ocean sea ice in recent years, commercial use of Arctic Sea shipping routes has attracted increasing attention. An urgent task for promoting the use of safe and cost-efficient routes in the Arctic Sea is the construction of a navigation support system. Such a system is essential not only for monitoring and forecasting the extent of sea ice but also for integrating such information in determination of the optimal route. This research developed an Arctic Sea Route Search System that has been published as a web application on the Arctic Data archive System website. Ship speed is calculated based on an approximate expression of actual Automatic Identification System data and an Ice Index, which is an index that reflects the ease of navigation based on ice type and the ship’s ice class. The A* algorithm searches for the optimal route using a search graph that places nodes at the grid positions of input data. Comparison of several test calculations using different parameters confirmed that the route search system provides reasonable results.","PeriodicalId":108271,"journal":{"name":"Volume 7: Polar and Arctic Sciences and Technology","volume":"121 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116348762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Agree – Disagree: Comparing Traffic Limitations in the Kara Sea","authors":"Ekaterina Kim, N. Panchi","doi":"10.1115/omae2021-62068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/omae2021-62068","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This study investigates variability of ships’ operational limitations for ice conditions in view of national rules and international recommendations (the Rules for Navigation in the Water Area of the Northern Sea Route and the International Maritime Organization Recommendations). As an example, the Kara Sea region is considered for the period of 2017–2019. The ship data from two datasets were considered: (1) the Northern Sea Route Administration data and (2) the Automatic Identification System data. For each ship’s ice class, the ice information (concentration and type) was used to derive operational limitations based on the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS), and the results were compared with the newly updated Northern Sea Route access criteria. Preliminary results indicate that national rules are generally stricter than international recommendations, however on some occasions, the national rules impose lesser restrictions on operations as ships with ice class PC7/Arc4 are allowed to operate when the international recommendations suggest an elevated probability of an accidental event.","PeriodicalId":108271,"journal":{"name":"Volume 7: Polar and Arctic Sciences and Technology","volume":"74 7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127182719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}