Mathematics of Climate and Weather Forecasting最新文献

{"title":"On strongly nonlinear gravity waves in a vertically sheared atmosphere","authors":"M. Schlutow, G. S. Voelker","doi":"10.1515/mcwf-2020-0103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/mcwf-2020-0103","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We investigate strongly nonlinear stationary gravity waves which experience refraction due to a thin vertical shear layer of horizontal background wind. The velocity amplitude of the waves is of the same order of magnitude as the background flow and hence the self-induced mean flow alters the modulation properties to leading order. In this theoretical study, we show that the stability of such a refracted wave depends on the classical modulation stability criterion for each individual layer, above and below the shearing. Additionally, the stability is conditioned by novel instability criteria providing bounds on the mean-flow horizontal wind and the amplitude of the wave. A necessary condition for instability is that the mean-flow horizontal wind in the upper layer is stronger than the wind in the lower layer.","PeriodicalId":106200,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics of Climate and Weather Forecasting","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123288162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimation of seasonal boundaries using temperature data: a case of northwest part of Bangladesh","authors":"S. M. Rahman, S. Rahman, Md. Shuzon Ali, M. Mamun, Md. Nezam Uddin","doi":"10.1515/mcwf-2020-0102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/mcwf-2020-0102","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Seasons are the divisions of the year into months or days according to the changes in weather, ecology and the intensity of sunlight in a given region. The temperature cycle plays a major role in defining the meteorological seasons of the year. This study aims at investigating seasonal boundaries applying harmonic analysis in daily temperature for the duration of 30 years, recorded at six stations from 1988 to 2017, in northwest part of Bangladesh. Year by year harmonic analyses of daily temperature data in each station have been carried out to observe temporal and spatial variations in seasonal lengths. Periodic nature of daily temperature has been investigated employing spectral analysis, and it has been found that the estimated periodicities have higher power densities of the frequencies at 0.0027 and 0.0053 cycles/day. Some other minor periodic natures have also been observed in the analyses. Using the frequencies between 0.0027 to 0.0278 cycles/day, the observed periodicities in spectral analysis, harmonic analyses of minimum and maximum temperatures have found four seasonal boundaries every year in each of the stations. The estimated seasonal boundaries for the region fall between 19-25 February, 19-23 May, 18-20 August and 17-22 November. Since seasonal variability results in imbalance in water, moisture and heat, it has the potential to significantly affect agricultural production. Hence, the seasons and seasonal lengths presented in this research may help the concerned authorities take measures to reduce the risks for crop productivity to face the challenges arise from changing climate. Moreover, the results obtained are likely to contribute in introducing local climate calendar.","PeriodicalId":106200,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics of Climate and Weather Forecasting","volume":"134 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132185641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pattern formation in clouds via Turing instabilities","authors":"Juliane Rosemeier, P. Spichtinger","doi":"10.1515/mcwf-2020-0104","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/mcwf-2020-0104","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Pattern formation in clouds is a well-known feature, which can be observed almost every day. However, the guiding processes for structure formation are mostly unknown, and also theoretical investigations of cloud patterns are quite rare. From many scientific disciplines the occurrence of patterns in non-equilibrium systems due to Turing instabilities is known, i.e. unstable modes grow and form spatial structures. In this study we investigate a generic cloud model for the possibility of Turing instabilities. For this purpose, the model is extended by diffusion terms. We can show that for some cloud models, i.e special cases of the generic model, no Turing instabilities are possible. However, we also present a general class of cloud models, where Turing instabilities can occur. A key requisite is the occurrence of (weakly) nonlinear terms for accretion. Using numerical simulations for a special case of the general class of cloud models, we show spatial patterns of clouds in one and two spatial dimensions. From the numerical simulations we can see that the competition between collision terms and sedimentation is an important issue for the existence of pattern formation.","PeriodicalId":106200,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics of Climate and Weather Forecasting","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130590162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shallow-cloud impact on climate and uncertainty: A simple stochastic model","authors":"E. A. Mueller, S. Stechmann","doi":"10.1515/mcwf-2020-0002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/mcwf-2020-0002","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Shallow clouds are a major source of uncertainty in climate predictions. Several different sources of the uncertainty are possible—e.g., from different models of shallow cloud behavior, which could produce differing predictions and ensemble spread within an ensemble of models, or from inherent, natural variability of shallow clouds. Here, the latter (inherent variability) is investigated, using a simple model of radiative statistical equilibrium, with oceanic and atmospheric boundary layer temperatures, To and Ta, and with moisture q and basic cloud processes. Stochastic variability is used to generate a statistical equilibrium with climate variability. The results show that the intrinsic variability of the climate is enhanced due to the presence of shallow clouds. In particular, the on-and-off switching of cloud formation and decay is a source of additional climate variability and uncertainty, beyond the variability of a cloud-free climate. Furthermore, a sharp transition in the mean climate occurs as environmental parameters are changed, and the sharp transition in the mean is also accompanied by a substantial enhancement of climate sensitivity and uncertainty. Two viewpoints of this behavior are described, based on bifurcations and phase transitions/statistical physics. The sharp regime transitions are associated with changes in several parameters, including cloud albedo and longwave absorptivity/carbon dioxide concentration, and the climate state transitions between a partially cloudy state and a state of full cloud cover like closed-cell stratocumulus clouds. Ideas of statistical physics can provide a conceptual perspective to link the climate state transitions, increased climate uncertainty, and other related behavior.","PeriodicalId":106200,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics of Climate and Weather Forecasting","volume":"68 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124220677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Expanding Grids for Efficient Cloud Dynamics Simulations Across Scales","authors":"David H. Marsico, S. Stechmann","doi":"10.1515/mcwf-2020-0101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/mcwf-2020-0101","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract With large eddy simulations (LES) and/or cloud-resolving models (CRMs), it is now possible to simultaneously simulate shallow and deep convection. However, using traditional methods, the computational expense is typically very large, due to the small grid spacings needed to resolve shallow clouds. Here, the main purpose is to present a method that is computationally less expensive by a factor of roughly 10 to 50. Unlike traditional grid stretching of only the vertical z grid spacing, the present method involves expansion of the grid spacing in all coordinate directions (x,y,z) and time t. A ˝ne grid spacing of O(10)-O(100) m can be used near the surface to resolve boundary layer turbulence, and the grid spacing expands to be O(1000) m at higher altitudes, which reduces computational cost while still resolving deep convection. Example simulations are conducted with a simpli˝ed LES/CRM in 2D to verify the theoretical cost savings.","PeriodicalId":106200,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics of Climate and Weather Forecasting","volume":"33 27","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114046899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Generalized modulation theory for strongly nonlinear gravity waves in a compressible atmosphere","authors":"M. Schlutow, E. Wahlén","doi":"10.1515/mcwf-2020-0105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/mcwf-2020-0105","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study investigates strongly nonlinear gravity waves in the compressible atmosphere from the Earth’s surface to the deep atmosphere. These waves are effectively described by Grimshaw’s dissipative modulation equations which provide the basis for finding stationary solutions such as mountain lee waves and testing their stability in an analytic fashion. Assuming energetically consistent boundary and far-field conditions, that is no energy flux through the surface, free-slip boundary, and finite total energy, general wave solutions are derived and illustrated in terms of realistic background fields. These assumptions also imply that the wave-Reynolds number must become less than unity above a certain height. The modulational stability of admissible, both non-hydrostatic and hydrostatic, waves is examined. It turns out that, when accounting for the self-induced mean flow, the wave-Froude number has a resonance condition. If it becomes 1/1/21/sqrt 2, then the wave destabilizes due to perturbations from the essential spectrum of the linearized modulation equations. However, if the horizontal wavelength is large enough, waves overturn before they can reach the modulational stability condition.","PeriodicalId":106200,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics of Climate and Weather Forecasting","volume":"62 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134261160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Numerical Development and Evaluation of an Energy Conserving Conceptual Stochastic Climate Model","authors":"F. Gugole, C. Franzke","doi":"10.1515/mcwf-2019-0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/mcwf-2019-0004","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this study we aim to present the successful development of an energy conserving conceptual stochastic climate model based on the inviscid 2-layer Quasi-Geostrophic (QG) equations. The stochastic terms have been systematically derived and introduced in such away that the total energy is conserved. In this proof of concept studywe give particular emphasis to the numerical aspects of energy conservation in a highdimensional complex stochastic system andwe analyzewhat kind of assumptions regarding the noise should be considered in order to obtain physical meaningful results. Our results show that the stochastic model conserves energy to an accuracy of about 0.5% of the total energy; this level of accuracy is not affected by the introduction of the noise, but is mainly due to the level of accuracy of the deterministic discretization of the QG model. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that spatially correlated noise is necessary for the conservation of energy and the preservation of important statistical properties, while using spatially uncorrelated noise violates energy conservation and gives unphysical results. A dynamically consistent spatial covariance structure is determined through Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). We find that only a small number of EOFs is needed to get good results with respect to energy conservation, autocorrelation functions, PDFs and eddy length scale when comparing a deterministic control simulation on a 512 × 512 grid to a stochastic simulation on a 128 × 128 grid. Our stochastic approach has the potential to seamlessly be implemented in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models.","PeriodicalId":106200,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics of Climate and Weather Forecasting","volume":"58 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123970907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fractional Order on the Impact of Climate Change With Dominant Earth’s Fluctuations","authors":"S. Eze, M. Oyesanya","doi":"10.1515/mcwf-2019-0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/mcwf-2019-0001","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this investigation, fractional order model on the impact of climate change with dominant Earth’s fluctuations is given. The solution of the modelwas obtained using modified LaplaceAdomian decomposition method. The result is compared with the result obtained from integer solution.We observed that what is seen in the fractional part takes longer to be seen in the integer part.We also observed that regardless of any choice we make to mitigate climate change, the impact will still persist due to the effect of Earth’s fluctuations.","PeriodicalId":106200,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics of Climate and Weather Forecasting","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121158009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimal Algorithms for Computing Average Temperatures","authors":"S. Foucart, Matthew Hielsberg, G. Mullendore, G. Petrova, P. Wojtaszczyk","doi":"10.1515/mcwf-2019-0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/mcwf-2019-0003","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract A numerical algorithm is presented for computing average global temperature (or other quantities of interest such as average precipitation) from measurements taken at speci_ed locations and times. The algorithm is proven to be in a certain sense optimal. The analysis of the optimal algorithm provides a sharp a priori bound on the error between the computed value and the true average global temperature. This a priori bound involves a computable compatibility constant which assesses the quality of the measurements for the chosen model. The optimal algorithm is constructed by solving a convex minimization problem and involves a set of functions selected a priori in relation to the model. It is shown that the solution promotes sparsity and hence utilizes a smaller number of well-chosen data sites than those provided. The algorithm is then applied to canonical data sets and mathematically generic models for the computation of average temperature and average precipitation over given regions and given time intervals. A comparison is provided between the proposed algorithms and existing methods.","PeriodicalId":106200,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics of Climate and Weather Forecasting","volume":"109 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133300790","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revisiting the Charney Baroclinic Instability Problem and Point-jet Barotropic Instability Problem, Part II: Matched Asymptotic Expansions & Overreflection Without Delta-Functions","authors":"J. Boyd","doi":"10.1515/mcwf-2018-0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/mcwf-2018-0004","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Baroclinic instability generates the cyclones and anticyclones of midlatitude weather. Charney developed the first effective theory for the infancy of this cyclogenesis in 1947. His linear eigenproblem is analytically solvable by confluent hypergeometric functions. It is also, with extension of the domain of the coordinate from [0,∞] to [−∞,∞] by reflection about the origin, the point-jet model of barotropic instability, important for tropical cyclogenesis. (Note that the coordinate is height z in the Charney model, but latitude y for the point-jet bartropic instability. It is a great simplification that the Charney and point-jet instability problems are mathematically identical, but it also is confusing that the mathematical analysis in y also applies to the Charney problem with the substitution of z for y.) Unfortunately, the theory is full of distributions like the Dirac delta-function and the reflected Charney eigenfunction has a discontinuous first derivative at y = 0. Here we regularize the Charney problem by replacing a linear mean current, U = |y|, by either U = є log(cosh(y/є)) or U = є y erf(y/є), followed by matched asymptotic perturbation expansions in powers of the small regularization parameter є. The series is carried to third order because the lowest nonzero correction to the phase speed is O(є2) and this correction is determined simultaneously with the third order approximation to the eigenfunction. The result is both an explicit, analytic regularization of a problem important in atmospheric and ocean dynamics, but also a good school problem because the series is explicit with nothing worse than polylogarithms and confluent hypergeometric functions. The primary meteorological conclusion is that the delta functions in the Charney problem are harmless as demonstrated both by third order perturbation theory and by spectrally-accurate numerical solutions. The physics of the regularized Charney problem is not significantly changed from that of the original Charney problem.","PeriodicalId":106200,"journal":{"name":"Mathematics of Climate and Weather Forecasting","volume":"62 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133587118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}