Clinical Kidney JournalPub Date : 2024-10-30eCollection Date: 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1093/ckj/sfae324
Thomas Jaeger, Emanuel Lohrmann, Adachukwu Ezenekwe, Kene Enekebe, Retesh Kumar, Sasikiran Nunna, Ancilla W Fernandes, Linda McCormick, Vinu George
{"title":"Liver safety of tolvaptan in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: interim data from a post-authorization safety study.","authors":"Thomas Jaeger, Emanuel Lohrmann, Adachukwu Ezenekwe, Kene Enekebe, Retesh Kumar, Sasikiran Nunna, Ancilla W Fernandes, Linda McCormick, Vinu George","doi":"10.1093/ckj/sfae324","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ckj/sfae324","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>After the risk of drug-induced liver injury was detected during tolvaptan clinical development for the treatment of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD), a post-marketing pharmacovigilance study was required for European Union regulatory approval.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This is an interim analysis from a prospective, observational study enrolling patients prescribed tolvaptan for ADPKD in routine clinical practice. Data were obtained through physician records collected during regular care. Per the prescribing label, liver transaminases were to be monitored monthly for the first 18 months of treatment and once every 3 months thereafter. Patients and physicians were required to report adverse events suggestive of serious and potentially fatal liver injury. Data collection was from October 2016 to April 2022.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Of 2074 patients (median follow-up 528 days), alanine aminotransferase (ALT) or aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels ≥3 times the upper limit of normal (ULN) were reported in 75 (3.6%) patients. At data cut-off, the enzyme elevations were confirmed for 65 patients. Among the 65 confirmed patients, in addition to transaminase elevations, there were 69 adverse events suggestive of liver injury. Tolvaptan was interrupted or withdrawn in 59/65 (90.8%) participants with confirmed ALT or AST ≥3 times the ULN, with most transaminase elevations and adverse events resolved or resolving at data cut-off. No liver enzyme elevations met laboratory criteria for Hy's law cases.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Transaminase elevations occurred post-marketing in a similar proportion of patients as reported in clinical trials (4.4-5.6%). Regular monitoring per label facilitates prompt detection of liver adverse events and intervention to mitigate the risk of severe injury.</p>","PeriodicalId":10435,"journal":{"name":"Clinical Kidney Journal","volume":"17 11","pages":"sfae324"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11551523/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142615767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Adding biomarker change information to the kidney failure risk equation improves predictive ability for dialysis dependency in eGFR <30 ml/min/1.73 m<sup>2</sup>.","authors":"Akira Okada, Shotaro Aso, Kayo Ikeda Kurakawa, Reiko Inoue, Hideaki Watanabe, Yusuke Sasabuchi, Toshimasa Yamauchi, Hideo Yasunaga, Takashi Kadowaki, Satoko Yamaguchi, Masaomi Nangaku","doi":"10.1093/ckj/sfae321","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ckj/sfae321","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Although the kidney failure risk equation (KFRE), a well-known predictive model for predicting dialysis dependency, is useful, it remains unclear whether the addition of biomarker changes to the KFRE model in patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <30 ml/min/1.73 m<sup>2</sup> will improve its predictive value.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We retrospectively identified adults with eGFR <30 ml/min/1.73 m<sup>2</sup> without dialysis dependency, and available health checkup data for two successive years using a large Japanese claims database (DeSC, Tokyo, Japan). We dichotomized the entire population into a training set (50%) and a validation set (the other half). To assess the incremental value in the predictive ability for dialysis dependency by the addition of changes in eGFR and proteinuria, we calculated the difference in the C-statistics and net reclassification index (NRI).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We identified 4499 individuals and observed 422 individuals (incidence of 45.2 per 1000 person-years) who developed dialysis dependency during the observation period (9343 person-years). Adding biomarker changes to the KFRE model improved C-statistics from 0.862 to 0.921, with an improvement of 0.060 (95% confidence intervals (CI) of 0.043-0.076, <i>P</i> < .001). The corresponding NRI was 0.773 (95% CI: 0.637-0.908), with an NRI for events of 0.544 (95% CI of 0.415-0.672) and NRI for non-events of 0.229 (95% CI of 0.186-0.272).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The KFRE model was improved by incorporating yearly changes in its components. The added information may help clinicians identify high-risk individuals and improve their care.</p>","PeriodicalId":10435,"journal":{"name":"Clinical Kidney Journal","volume":"17 11","pages":"sfae321"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11574387/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142675039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Clinical Kidney JournalPub Date : 2024-10-21eCollection Date: 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1093/ckj/sfae315
Lixing Xu, Jack Kit-Chung Ng, Gordon Chun-Kau Chan, Winston Wing-Shing Fung, Kai-Ming Chow, Cheuk-Chun Szeto
{"title":"Comparing bioimpedance spectrometry and traditional creatinine kinetics methods for the assessment of muscle mass in peritoneal dialysis patients.","authors":"Lixing Xu, Jack Kit-Chung Ng, Gordon Chun-Kau Chan, Winston Wing-Shing Fung, Kai-Ming Chow, Cheuk-Chun Szeto","doi":"10.1093/ckj/sfae315","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ckj/sfae315","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Sarcopenia is a common and serious problem in patients receiving peritoneal dialysis (PD). Lean tissue mass (LTM) by bioimpedance spectrometry is a reasonably accurate method for measuring muscle mass. Fat-free edema-free body mass (FEBM) as determined by the creatinine kinetics method is a traditional method but evidence to support its use is limited.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We studied 198 new PD patients. Their serial LTM and FEBM were reviewed and compared by the Bland and Altman method. Multi-variable regression model was used to determine factors associated with the disparity between the two methods.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>There was a significant but moderate correlation between LTM and FEBM (r = 0.309, <i>P</i> < .0001). LTM was consistently higher than FEBM, with an average difference 13.98 kg (95% confidence interval -5.90 to 33.86 kg), and the difference strongly correlated with LTM (r = 0.781, <i>P</i> < .0001). By multivariable linear regression analysis, LTM and residual renal function were independent predictors of the LTM-FEBM difference. Where the measurements were repeated in 12 months, there was no significant correlation between ∆LTM and ∆FEBM (r = -0.031, <i>P</i> = .799).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>There is a significant difference between LTM and FFBM. This discrepancy correlated with LTM and residual renal function, highlighting the limitations of FFBM in assessing skeletal muscle mass.</p>","PeriodicalId":10435,"journal":{"name":"Clinical Kidney Journal","volume":"17 11","pages":"sfae315"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11536771/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142582379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Clinical Kidney JournalPub Date : 2024-10-21eCollection Date: 2024-10-01DOI: 10.1093/ckj/sfae311
{"title":"Correction to: The ERA Registry Annual Report 2021: a summary.","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/ckj/sfae311","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ckj/sfae311","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1093/ckj/sfad281.].</p>","PeriodicalId":10435,"journal":{"name":"Clinical Kidney Journal","volume":"17 10","pages":"sfae311"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11491817/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142459674","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Tixagevimab-cilgavimab for preventing breakthrough COVID-19 in dialysis patients: a prospective study.","authors":"Sarinya Boongird, Thatsaphan Srithongkul, Sethanant Sethakarun, Jackrapong Bruminhent, Sasisopin Kiertiburanakul, Arkom Nongnuch, Chagriya Kitiyakara, Suchai Sritippayawan","doi":"10.1093/ckj/sfae309","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ckj/sfae309","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The effectiveness of tixagevimab-cilgavimab as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) against breakthrough coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in dialysis patients remains uncertain due to limited data.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>In this multicenter prospective study, we enrolled vaccinated dialysis patients and divided them into two groups: a tixagevimab-cilgavimab group (received a 150 mg/150 mg intramuscular dose of tixagevimab-cilgavimab) and a control group (age-matched patients not receiving tixagevimab-cilgavimab). The primary outcome was the breakthrough COVID-19 rate at 6 months, whereas secondary outcomes included COVID-19-related hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, endotracheal intubation and mortality. The safety of tixagevimab-cilgavimab was assessed.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Two hundred participants were enrolled, with equal numbers in each group (<i>n</i> = 100 each). Baseline characteristics were comparable between groups, except for a higher number of COVID-19 vaccine doses in the tixagevimab-cilgavimab group [median (IQR) 4 (3-5) vs. 3 (3-4); <i>P</i> = .01]. At 6 months, the breakthrough COVID-19 rates were comparable between the tixagevimab-cilgavimab (17%) and control (15%) groups (<i>P</i> = .66). However, the median (IQR) time to diagnosis of breakthrough infections tended to be longer in the tixagevimab-cilgavimab group [4.49 (2.81-4.98) vs 1.96 (1.65-2.91) months; <i>P</i> = .08]. Tixagevimab-cilgavimab significantly reduced COVID-19-related hospitalization rates (5.9% vs 40.0%; <i>P</i> = .02) among participants with breakthrough infections. All tixagevimab-cilgavimab-related adverse events were mild.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The use of tixagevimab-cilgavimab as PrEP in vaccinated dialysis patients during the Omicron surge did not prevent breakthrough infections but significantly reduced COVID-19-related hospitalizations. Further research should prioritize alternative strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":10435,"journal":{"name":"Clinical Kidney Journal","volume":"17 11","pages":"sfae309"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11558061/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142615853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Clinical Kidney JournalPub Date : 2024-10-18eCollection Date: 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1093/ckj/sfae279
Jin Hean Koh, Claire Yi Jia Lim, Kvan Jie Ming Yam, Brian Sheng Yep Yeo, Adele Chin Wei Ng, Shaun Ray Han Loh, Pon Poh Hsu, Joshua Gooley, Chieh Suai Tan, Song Tar Toh
{"title":"Bidirectional association of sleep disorders with chronic kidney disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.","authors":"Jin Hean Koh, Claire Yi Jia Lim, Kvan Jie Ming Yam, Brian Sheng Yep Yeo, Adele Chin Wei Ng, Shaun Ray Han Loh, Pon Poh Hsu, Joshua Gooley, Chieh Suai Tan, Song Tar Toh","doi":"10.1093/ckj/sfae279","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ckj/sfae279","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Published studies have suggested a link between chronic kidney disease (CKD) and sleep disorders, although the exact nature of this association has not been uniformly described. Clarifying this relationship may facilitate evidence-based interventions that address the interplay between these disease entities. Such interventions could prevent obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) from worsening CKD and improve the quality of life for CKD patients by reducing the risk of developing OSA. Therefore, the objective of this meta-analysis is to assess the bidirectional association between sleep disorders and CKD.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Following a PROSPERO-registered protocol, three blinded reviewers conducted a systematic review of the Medline/PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library and Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health (CINAHL) databases for observational studies pertaining to the relationship between sleep disorders and CKD. A meta-analysis was conducted in risk ratios (RRs).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>From 63 studies (26 777 524 patients), OSA [RR 1.68; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.45 to 1.93], albuminuria (RR 1.54; 95% CI 1.18 to 1.99), restless leg syndrome (RLS) (RR 1.88; 95% CI 1.48 to 2.38) and insomnia (RR 1.24; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.54) were significantly associated with CKD. There was a significant association between OSA (RR 1.77; 95% CI 1.56 to 2.01) with incident CKD. There was a significant association of OSA (RR 1.74; 95% CI 1.55 to 1.96), RLS (RR 1.73; 95% CI 1.32 to 2.25) and insomnia (RR 1.14; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.27) in patients with CKD compared with healthy controls. CKD was also significantly associated with incident OSA (RR 1.60; 95% CI 1.35 to 1.89).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The bidirectional associations of obstructive sleep apnea with CKD remained consistent across different stages of CKD, modes of diagnosis of sleep disorder and geographical region. A bidirectional association was observed between CKD and obstructive sleep apnea, RLS and insomnia. The treatment of sleep disorders may reduce the risk of CKD, and vice versa.</p>","PeriodicalId":10435,"journal":{"name":"Clinical Kidney Journal","volume":"17 11","pages":"sfae279"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11549560/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142615838","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Clinical Kidney JournalPub Date : 2024-10-17eCollection Date: 2024-10-01DOI: 10.1093/ckj/sfae304
{"title":"Correction to: Reduction in kidney function decline and risk of severe clinical events in agalsidase beta-treated Fabry disease patients: a matched analysis from the Fabry Registry.","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/ckj/sfae304","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ckj/sfae304","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1093/ckj/sfae194.].</p>","PeriodicalId":10435,"journal":{"name":"Clinical Kidney Journal","volume":"17 10","pages":"sfae304"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11483268/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142459673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Clinical Kidney JournalPub Date : 2024-10-17eCollection Date: 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1093/ckj/sfae316
Silvio Borrelli, Carlo Garofalo, Gianpaolo Reboldi, Annapaola Coppola, Paolo Chiodini, Mariadelina Simeoni, Alessio Mazzieri, Luca Della Volpe, Maurizio Gallieni, Carola Zummo, Santina Cottone, Maura Ravera, Filippo Aucella, Francesco Aucella, Giovanni Stallone, Valeria Gismondi, Federico Alberici, Marco Gregori, Giuseppe Castellano, Simone Vettoretti, Mario Cozzolino, Chiara Ruotolo, Roberto Minutolo, Luca De Nicola
{"title":"Changes in 24-hour blood pressure profile after 12 weeks of dapagliflozin treatment in patients with diabetic kidney disease: an Italian multicenter prospective study.","authors":"Silvio Borrelli, Carlo Garofalo, Gianpaolo Reboldi, Annapaola Coppola, Paolo Chiodini, Mariadelina Simeoni, Alessio Mazzieri, Luca Della Volpe, Maurizio Gallieni, Carola Zummo, Santina Cottone, Maura Ravera, Filippo Aucella, Francesco Aucella, Giovanni Stallone, Valeria Gismondi, Federico Alberici, Marco Gregori, Giuseppe Castellano, Simone Vettoretti, Mario Cozzolino, Chiara Ruotolo, Roberto Minutolo, Luca De Nicola","doi":"10.1093/ckj/sfae316","DOIUrl":"10.1093/ckj/sfae316","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) lower ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus; whether the same holds true in diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is unknown. This information is critical to the knowledge of mechanisms of nephroprotection and safety of this therapy.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This multicenter prospective study evaluates the changes in ABP after 12 weeks of dapagliflozin 10 mg/day in a cohort of patients with type 2 DKD and glomerular filtration rate (GFR) >25 mL/min/1.73 m<sup>2</sup>. Primary endpoint was the change of nighttime systolic blood pressure (SBP). Changes of daytime SBP, prevalence of normal dipping (day/night SBP ratio <0.9) and changes in ABP patterns, that is, sustained uncontrolled hypertension (SUCH), white coat uncontrolled hypertension (WUCH), masked uncontrolled hypertension (MUCH) and controlled hypertension (CH) were secondary endpoints.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Eighty-three of 96 patients completed the study [age 68.7 ± 8.9 years, 73.5% males, GFR 49 ± 17 mL/min/1.73 m<sup>2</sup>, median albuminuria: 0.18 (interquartile range 0.10-0.38) g/24 h]. After 12 weeks of dapagliflozin, nighttime SBP declined by -3.0 mmHg (95% confidence interval -5.2/-0.8 mmHg; <i>P</i> = .010) with an improvement of nighttime SBP goal (<110 mmHg) from 18.0% to 27.0% (<i>P</i> < .001). Similarly, the prevalence of normal dipping increased (from 31.3% to 50.6%, <i>P</i> = .005). A decrease in daytime (-2.4 mmHg; <i>P</i> = .046) and office (-7.9 mmHg; <i>P</i> = .009) SBP was also found. The decline of ambulatory and office SBP was associated with increased prevalence of CH (from 6.0% to 18.0%) and significant improvement of SUCH, WUCH and MUCH (<i>P</i> = .009). Albuminuria decreased (<i>P</i> < .001), whereas eGFR did not change (<i>P</i> = .297). Urinary tract infection (4.2%) and acute kidney injury (3.6%) were the main causes of drop-out. Only one patient showed a drop of nighttime SBP below 90 mmHg.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Dapagliflozin is associated with improvement in circadian blood pressure rhythm with no major safety signal related to excessive blood pressure decrease.</p>","PeriodicalId":10435,"journal":{"name":"Clinical Kidney Journal","volume":"17 11","pages":"sfae316"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11536757/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142582374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Clinical Kidney JournalPub Date : 2024-10-16eCollection Date: 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1093/ckj/sfae314
Khandoker Shuvo Bakar, Armando Teixeira-Pinto, Ryan Gately, Farzaneh Boroumand, Wai H Lim, Germaine Wong
{"title":"Dynamic prediction of kidney allograft and patient survival using post-transplant estimated glomerular filtration rate trajectory.","authors":"Khandoker Shuvo Bakar, Armando Teixeira-Pinto, Ryan Gately, Farzaneh Boroumand, Wai H Lim, Germaine Wong","doi":"10.1093/ckj/sfae314","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ckj/sfae314","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Allograft loss is the most feared outcome of kidney transplant recipients. We aimed to develop a dynamic Bayesian model using estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) trajectories to predict long-term allograft and patient survivals.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We used data from the Australian and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant registry and included all adult kidney transplant recipients (1980-2017) in Australia (derivation cohort) and New Zealand (NZ, validation cohort). Using a joint model, the temporal changes of eGFR trajectories were used to predict patient and allograft survivals.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The cohort composed of 14 915 kidney transplant recipients [12 777 (86%) from Australia and 2138 (14%) from NZ] who were followed for a median of 8.9 years. In the derivation cohort, eGFR trajectory was inversely associated with allograft loss [every 10 ml/min/1.73 m<sup>2</sup> reduction in eGFR, adjusted hazard ratio [HR, 95% credible intervals (95%CI) 1.31 (1.23-1.39)] and death [1.12 (1.10-1.14)]. Similar estimates were observed in the validation cohort. The respective dynamic area under curve (AUC) (95%CI) estimates for predicting allograft loss at 5-years post-transplantation were 0.83 (0.75-0.91) and 0.81 (0.68-0.93) for the derivation and validation cohorts.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>This straightforward model, using a single metric of eGFR trajectory, shows good model performance, and effectively distinguish transplant recipients who are at risk of death and allograft loss from those who are not. This simple bedside tool may facilitate early identification of individuals at risk of allograft loss and death.</p>","PeriodicalId":10435,"journal":{"name":"Clinical Kidney Journal","volume":"17 11","pages":"sfae314"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11551522/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142615759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}