{"title":"The holistic view in forecasting: A conceptual framework to analyze and mitigate cost underestimation arising from optimism bias","authors":"Giuseppe Sassano","doi":"10.1016/j.plas.2025.100177","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.plas.2025.100177","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the intricate landscape of project planning literature, optimism bias emerges as a significant factor influencing estimation inaccuracies. This research delves into the interplay between support and prospect theories, aiming to elucidate the underpinnings of biases in decision-making processes. By juxtaposing these theories within the broader framework of project management, I present an innovative conceptual model that seeks to bridge the gap between the so-called internal and external views in forecasting. This model highlights the potential for a more synergistic approach to forecasting, challenging the traditionally held notion of incompatibility between these perspectives. Through this lens, the author advocates for a holistic approach to project estimation, emphasizing the potential to counteract the pitfalls of cost underestimation stemming from optimism bias. Indeed, by adopting this holistic view, I maintain that project managers and stakeholders can be better equipped to navigate the complexities of project estimation, thereby mitigating the adverse effects of cost underestimation that are intrinsically linked to optimism bias.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101050,"journal":{"name":"Project Leadership and Society","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100177"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143097219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Game research by design in project management and beyond","authors":"Maria Freese , Geertje Bekebrede","doi":"10.1016/j.plas.2024.100174","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.plas.2024.100174","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Projects are complex systems as they consist of different elements interacting with each other considering a certain degree of uncertainty. Serious games - defined as those that are not primarily intended to entertain - can be used to better understand, analyse, or design projects in such complex socio-technical systems. They are a powerful research method because they provide data and insights into people’s behaviour in relation to their environment. They do this in an engaging way in a safe environment, making them suitable for testing hypotheses and gathering data on choices, decisions, and interactions of people. In addition, serious games provide an environment that allows for mixed methods data collection. This article introduces the Game Research by Design - Approach about the development of serious gaming research set-ups, which addresses three cycles - <em>theoretical, design and empirical one</em> - when conducting research using serious games. This article illustrates the choices researchers need to make when developing research design and experiments based on serious gaming. Further research is needed to elaborate the different steps and to fine-tune this approach.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101050,"journal":{"name":"Project Leadership and Society","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100174"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143097223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sam Dulin , Alexandre Bredikhin , Noah Bridges , Laurel Williams , Jeffrey Keisler , Edmond Russo , Igor Linkov
{"title":"Civil works megaprojects: Cognitive biases and lessons for effective risk mitigation","authors":"Sam Dulin , Alexandre Bredikhin , Noah Bridges , Laurel Williams , Jeffrey Keisler , Edmond Russo , Igor Linkov","doi":"10.1016/j.plas.2025.100198","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.plas.2025.100198","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) megaprojects are critical infrastructure investments that often experience cost overruns, schedule delays, and performance issues, with over 35 % of USACE dam structures rated in poor condition. This paper presents the first quantitative case study of past USACE Lock and Dam megaprojects—including the Charleroi, Chickamauga, Olmsted, Soo, and Montgomery projects —to identify patterns of risk mismanagement that contribute to these challenges. Using Bayesian methods and quantitative analysis on the risk registers of these projects, the study demonstrates that over-optimism in initial risk assessments, particularly the underestimation of risk likelihoods, can diminish the effectiveness of subsequent mitigation efforts by 25 % on average. The analysis also finds that risk managers tend to prioritize mitigation for risks where their confidence in assessment is highest, leaving higher-uncertainty risks less addressed. Based on these findings, the paper offers evidence-based recommendations for implementing structured risk governance frameworks, such as reference-class forecasting and external risk validation. This study advances project management knowledge by providing the first quantitative evidence of cognitive biases shaping risk register practices in civil works megaprojects. Incorporating such insights into future risk assessment and decision support methods can support critical infrastructure management and performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101050,"journal":{"name":"Project Leadership and Society","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100198"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145465232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Making sense of collaboration in major infrastructure construction projects","authors":"Christoffer Rönndahl , Petra Bosch-Sijtsema , Rasmus Rempling , Mats Karlsson","doi":"10.1016/j.plas.2025.100178","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.plas.2025.100178","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>For complex and major infrastructure construction projects, relational governance and the importance of collaboration between project partners have led to the emergence of collaborative project delivery models. While collaboration has been studied from different perspectives, few studies focus on how collaboration is maintained and developed over time in major construction projects. Sensemaking is used as a theoretical lens to give more insight in how project actors give and make sense in relation to collaboration. Through a longitudinal case study with interviews (42) and observations, events, triggers and sensebreakers that stimulate sensemaking and sensegiving in the project are discussed. The study contributes with an empirical insight in how project actors make sense of collaboration through sensegiving, stimulating a sensemaking process while also exploring the influence of triggers and sensebreakers on this process. It underscores the dynamic and evolving nature of collaboration within the project context through sensemaking.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101050,"journal":{"name":"Project Leadership and Society","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100178"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143097220","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Project leaders digital Capabilities: A sentiment analysis perspective","authors":"Carl Marnewick","doi":"10.1016/j.plas.2025.100205","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.plas.2025.100205","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Technologies like artificial intelligence and big data analytics can contribute positively to the management of a project. To sense and seize the associated benefits of technology, project leaders themselves need certain digital capabilities. There is an uncertainty what these digital capabilities are as digital capabilities are typically associated with disciplines like education and health care. The purpose of this article is two-fold: (i) identify relevant digital capabilities and (ii) explore how project leaders can identify and incorporate these digital capabilities to the benefit of the team and the project. To the achieve this purpose, sentiment analysis was used as well as the conducting of two focus groups. Sentiment analysis was used to identify digital capabilities from literature. The focus groups were used to uncover the lived experience of project leaders regarding digital capabilities. Triangulation was done between the results of the sentiment analysis to construct the required digital capabilities. The results indicate that there are 13 generic digital capabilities focusing on technology whereas 12 project-specific digital capabilities are more of a cognitive nature. The results of the sentiment analysis also indicate that project leaders are overwhelmingly negative towards project management digitalisation. The usage of sentiment analysis contributes to the originality of the article. Also, the 25 digital capabilities were mapped upon the Dynamic Capabilities aspects of sensing, seizing and reconfiguration. This research advances our theoretical understanding of the required digital capabilities. Practically, it provides a framework for developing digital project leaders addressing a gap in existing literature.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101050,"journal":{"name":"Project Leadership and Society","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100205"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145692933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Mega research infrastructure as a driver for high-quality development and innovation: Promoting scientific cooperation and interdisciplinarity","authors":"Ying Xing , Yuejia Wu , xiao Xiao , Daojuan Wang , Ling-ling Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.plas.2024.100150","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.plas.2024.100150","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mega research infrastructures, as megaprojects, play a crucial role in promoting high-quality development, particularly in relation to innovation. They contribute to the development of disciplinary layouts and scientific collaborations. Additionally, during the operational phase of a infrastructure, maximizing efficiency and ensuring sustainable development become key aspects of project management. The operation of mega research infrastructures involves increasing levels of interdisciplinarity, interagency collaboration, and cross-regional cooperation. Therefore, it is essential to further clarify the characteristics of scientific collaboration within these facilities and understand the current status and evolving trends of disciplinary and collaborative networks. This work serves as a fundamental and necessary endeavor. In this study, we employ social network analysis methods to investigate the Shanghai Synchrotron Radiation Facility as a case study. We analyze the network structure and evolution of its collaborative and disciplinary networks from 2009 to 2022. The findings reveal the enormous potential and value of mega research infrastructures in promoting scientific research cooperation and development. They emphasize the need for increased attention and support for instrument scientists by facility managers, as well as the importance of expanding collaboration areas and formats to enrich the range of disciplines involved. The contribution of this study lies in its systematic analysis of the evolutionary process of collaborative and disciplinary networks within mega research infrastructures. It reveals the scientific value of these facilities in driving scientific research cooperation and interdisciplinary integration, providing a scientific basis for project management and policy formulation in the operational phase of mega research infrastructures. The research will align the strategic development direction of mega research infrastructures with the requirements of high-quality development and deepen the foundational role of mega research infrastructures in supporting high-quality development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101050,"journal":{"name":"Project Leadership and Society","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100150"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143093203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Elina Jääskä, Kirsi Aaltonen, Liina Hellens, Jaakko Kujala
{"title":"Bridging change and project management: A review and future research directions","authors":"Elina Jääskä, Kirsi Aaltonen, Liina Hellens, Jaakko Kujala","doi":"10.1016/j.plas.2024.100172","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.plas.2024.100172","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The fundamental purpose of a project is to implement change, aiming for the transition from an existing state to a desired future state. However, project management studies primarily focus on the design and implementation of the project deliverable and rarely address the management of change needed to achieve the desired future state. This study conducted a systematic literature review to synthesize the existing research on change management within project studies and identify areas of contention and under-researched aspects before proposing an agenda for further research. It addresses the following research question: How is the management of change addressed in project studies? The analysis of prior research reveals six key themes: relationship between change management and project management, change process and factors and factors affecting the change process, change management as a success factor, change resistance, interface with permanent organizations, and change in project-based firms and industries/fields. However, this analysis also highlights the fragmented nature of prior research, emphasizing the need for more conceptual and empirical work to understand the integration of change and project management processes. Integrating change management concepts and tools into project management thinking and vice versa offers opportunities to advance both disciplines.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101050,"journal":{"name":"Project Leadership and Society","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100172"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143097221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Rethinking the project life cycle – how circularity challenges processes, roles and governance","authors":"Sofia Lingegård , Susanna Hedborg","doi":"10.1016/j.plas.2025.100194","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.plas.2025.100194","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The pressing need for sustainability transitions requires not only new project outcomes, but also new ways of leading and organizing projects. The study aims to examine how circularity, understood as the reuse and recycling of materials, challenges the conventional project life cycle by changing processes, roles, and governance. A case of a nature-based park constructed with circular materials was conducted using interviews, observations, and site visits. The results show that circularity reshapes project leadership in three key ways. First, circular material sourcing requires an iterative and adaptive project process, which extends the front-end and overlaps with delivery. This disrupts linear, stage-gated models and introduces ongoing decision-making and flexible planning throughout the lifecycle. Second, the changing process reconfigures project roles: project managers take on expanded and evolving leadership, including facilitating collaboration, managing uncertainty, and communicating sustainability values across phases. Third, the findings underscore the need for adaptive governance, including engaged clients and flexible contracting, to support circular practices. These insights extend existing research on sustainability in and by projects by showing how circularity is not merely a design principle but an organizing logic that restructures internal processes, leadership roles, and governance arrangements. The study advances theory on how circularity functions not only as a sustainability goal but also as a transformative force in project organizing and leadership.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101050,"journal":{"name":"Project Leadership and Society","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100194"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145218891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Matt Kammer-Kerwick, Anirudh Muralidharan, Adriann Oommen, Ishani Purohit, Carlos Caldas, Arthur B. Markman
{"title":"Next practice: A trust-and-cooperation “Neighborhood” model for multi-project delivery","authors":"Matt Kammer-Kerwick, Anirudh Muralidharan, Adriann Oommen, Ishani Purohit, Carlos Caldas, Arthur B. Markman","doi":"10.1016/j.plas.2025.100204","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.plas.2025.100204","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the adoption and effectiveness of a trust and cooperation-based neighborhood model, designed to foster collaboration and reduce friction among stakeholders in operational environments characterized by complex supply chains and multi-stakeholder engagements. Grounded in the psychological theories of reciprocal exchange, the model envisions a ’neighborhood’ where participants collaborate as partners, fostering predictable outcomes, reduced risks, and greater financial stability. Although the model is intended for operational environments requiring intensive trust and coordination, this research tested its application within the construction sector. The work was conducted in two exploratory phases, both in the United States: a concept test survey followed by pressure testing the model through a series of workshops. The concept test survey assessed industry's interest in and compatibility with this neighborhood approach. Results indicated strong support for the model's collaborative approach highlighting its potential to address the issues of mistrust in the industry. The second phase involved a series of codesign workshops with key industry stakeholders, including a project owner, a general contractor, an architect, and several legal experts. These workshops confirmed the model's strengths in promoting cooperation and transparency but also identified challenges, such as the need for better integration with existing legal frameworks and addressing power dynamics within the neighborhood. This study suggests that the trust and cooperation-based neighborhood model has the potential to transform collaboration in other operational environments such as healthcare, manufacturing supply chains, and technology development. The model also has the potential to be integrated into other cooperative models and frameworks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101050,"journal":{"name":"Project Leadership and Society","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100204"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145623386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Dynamic tensions of individually experienced autonomy in agile project teams: A conceptual model","authors":"Judith Armbruster , Martina Huemann","doi":"10.1016/j.plas.2025.100202","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.plas.2025.100202","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In today's complex organizational environments, fostering motivated employees is essential for sustaining success. While we consider autonomy a central motivator in projects, increased autonomy is also a characteristic of agile project teams following self-organizing principles. This combination of creative freedom and commitment creates a paradox of being able to act autonomously while closely interacting with team members to achieve a joint outcome. The individual's experience involves balancing autonomy with team collaboration. This paper investigates the experienced autonomy of individuals in agile teams. It applies a paradox lens to uncover tensions between individual autonomy and being part of an agile team. An integrative literature review, combined with a systematic literature review of 37 research papers, facilitates the comprehensive integration of literature from diverse streams, offering a theoretical contribution. The conceptual contribution involves defining experienced autonomy and developing a model of dynamic tensions for individually experienced autonomy in agile teams. The model identifies three dimensions critical to supporting autonomy: autonomy to learn, autonomy to share, and autonomy to create. This dynamic concept is supported by reinforcing cycles that either enhance or decrease individually experienced autonomy. This research advances the theoretical understanding of autonomy in agile teams and offers practical insights for organizational management seeking to foster environments where autonomy enhances motivation. The validation of the model is the subject of further research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101050,"journal":{"name":"Project Leadership and Society","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100202"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145623387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}