Journal of Government and Economics最新文献

{"title":"Diversification of rare earth metals supply chain: Can the U.S. rely on non-Chinese sources?","authors":"Arsene Oka","doi":"10.1016/j.jge.2025.100156","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jge.2025.100156","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China’s recent restrictions on rare earth (RE) metal exports have heightened U.S. concerns over supply security. A key question is whether non-Chinese producers can substitute for China and reduce dependence. This paper examines that issue by estimating the cross-price elasticity of U.S. RE metal imports from China and the rest of the world (ROW). Positive elasticities imply substitutability, while negative values suggest complementarity, limiting diversification. Using a cointegration-based time-series framework and annual data from 1991–2023, the analysis reveals a clear time horizon distinction. In the long run, Chinese and ROW supplies behave as complements: price increases in one source reduce imports from the other. In the short run, however, they act as substitutes, with higher prices from one source increasing imports from the other. The findings show that while non-Chinese suppliers can provide short-term relief, they cannot fully replace Chinese supply in the long run due to higher costs and limited capacity. China therefore remains structurally indispensable, underscoring the importance of industrial policy and strategic investment in developing a domestic RE metals supply chain. This study provides the first empirical estimates of U.S. RE import demand and disaggregated cross-price elasticities, offering insights for both supply chain managers and government strategists.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100785,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Government and Economics","volume":"19 ","pages":"Article 100156"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145220144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"National output without government? State capacity and welfare measurement","authors":"Vincent Geloso ,&nbsp;Chandler S. Reilly","doi":"10.1016/j.jge.2025.100155","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jge.2025.100155","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Should government services be counted in GDP? In this paper, we argue that this is the wrong question. The more relevant question is: what do government services allow us to capture about economic well-being? By construction, counting government spending at cost as part of GDP turns it into an upper-bound approximation of welfare—one that tends to overvalue the contribution of the state. We use the concept of the <em>Private Product Remaining</em> (PPR) from Rothbard (1972) as a lower-bound measure of economic output that removes government in a comprehensive manner from GDP. We argue that the gap between GDP and PPR reflects the uncertainty surrounding the true welfare contribution of the state (thus affecting the reliability of any attempts of using national accounts to speak to welfare). This gap becomes analytically useful once we introduce state capacity into the picture: improvements in state capacity shift us along the spectrum between these two bounds. We formalize this idea through a \"measurement legitimacy\" function of state capacity which lies between PPR and GDP depending on the effectiveness of the state. Using newly extended data for the United States from 1889 to 2024, we find that the size and direction of the gap between the two measures vary systematically in ways that alter our understanding of American economic history and the role of state capacity. From 1889 to 1928, rising state capacity leads to GDP understating growth. Between 1929 and 1985, GDP <em>overstates</em> growth. After 1985, GDP once again <em>understates</em> it.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100785,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Government and Economics","volume":"19 ","pages":"Article 100155"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145095153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can poor institutions explain Brazil’s economic stagnation? A brief review of policy choices and incentives","authors":"Matheus Terentin","doi":"10.1016/j.jge.2025.100150","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jge.2025.100150","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article critically examines Brazil's economic stagnation since the 1980s, contesting the overarching view that attributes underdevelopment primarily to poor institutions. While acknowledging Brazil's impressive growth from 1932 to 1980, driven by an entrepreneurial state, the paper argues that the institutional determinants of growth do not offer a plausible explanation for its slowdown. Instead, it presents an alternative perspective rooted in New Developmentalism and structuralist economics, highlighting the detrimental impact of policy shifts initiated in the 1980s. These include the retreat of the developmental state, a decline in public investment, chronically high interest rates, and a persistently overvalued exchange rate, all of which have hampered Brazil's structural transformation. Knowing who benefits and who loses from these policies provides insight into why policymakers persist on this stagnant path, sacrificing sustained growth for momentary gains. It concludes by asserting that policymakers have conveniently used the discourse of public inefficiency to justify withdrawing the government from its role in development. It advocates for a paradigm shift in policymaking, urging recognition that poor institutions are primarily a consequence, not a cause, of underdevelopment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100785,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Government and Economics","volume":"19 ","pages":"Article 100150"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144711497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does the central supporting policy for resource-exhausted cities improve carbon efficiency? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China","authors":"Yiwen Peng,&nbsp;Weihua Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.jge.2025.100149","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jge.2025.100149","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Promoting the carbon efficiency is an accepted issue in China’s sustainable development against the background of carbon neutrality. In order to help China’s resource-exhausted cities overcome their difficulties, the central government has issued an official policy document titled Opinions of Promoting the Sustainable Development of Resource-based Cities, which has announced 69 resource-exhausted cities. The central and local governments have strengthened policy and funds support to set up a long-term mechanism of sustainable development. This paper utilizes a spatial difference-in-difference (SDID) method to investigate how the supporting policy affects carbon performance in those resource-exhausted cities and their neighboring cities, with city-level data from 2004 to 2016. The results show a positive feedback of supporting policy on carbon performance in both local regions and adjacent regions. Furthermore, we find that wage distortion could account for carbon performance improvement. Our results provide evidence for realizing the low-carbon economy of resource-exhausted cities in China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100785,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Government and Economics","volume":"18 ","pages":"Article 100149"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144604492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Curing the Dutch disease: The role of tariffs","authors":"Cece Cherif Delamou","doi":"10.1016/j.jge.2025.100147","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jge.2025.100147","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the role of tariffs in addressing the Dutch Disease effect in resource-rich developing economies. By developing a theoretical framework built on existing literature, the study explores the role that the structure of taxes, internationally, can play in mitigating the adverse effects of resource exports on domestic industrial activity. The theoretical analysis finds that tariffs do influence domestic intersectoral labor allocation as well as industrial production in a resource-exporting economy and can counterbalance the effects of resource exports. Empirical data from 40 developing economies (2004–2021) confirms a negative relationship between resource dependence and manufacturing share of labor, and corroborates the theoretical finding that tariffs do reduce this impact.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100785,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Government and Economics","volume":"18 ","pages":"Article 100147"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144240427","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tariffs, Palestinian economy, Orban’s policy, Central and Local governments of China, and partisan politics' impact on Fed policy: Editor’s note","authors":"Zhangkai Huang,&nbsp;David Daokui Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jge.2025.100151","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jge.2025.100151","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":100785,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Government and Economics","volume":"18 ","pages":"Article 100151"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144757560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The catching up of the Hungarian economy in the European Union and Hungary’s falling behind among the post socialist member states","authors":"Gábor Gulácsi ,&nbsp;Ádám Kerényi","doi":"10.1016/j.jge.2025.100148","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jge.2025.100148","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>For decades Hungary, like the other post-socialist Central-Eastern European countries, followed a general policy of establishing and strengthening the institutions of democracy and a market economy. While Hungary initially benefited from the EU's convergence mechanisms, including access to the single market and cohesion funds, its long-term catching-up performance has lagged behind its regional peers. However, since the elections of 2010, when Viktor Orbán returned to power, Hungary has done dramatic changes. This study examines the complex interplay of factors that have shaped Hungary’s economic trajectory within the EU, focusing on two distinct periods: before 2010 and 2010–2023. Through international comparative analysis and country-specific hypotheses, the paper identifies critical governance failures and institutional weaknesses as primary reasons for Hungary's faltering convergence. In the early stages of Hungarian EU membership, the country’s economic development was hampered by a serious failure of governance of social-liberal parties which also triggered an excessive deficit procedure. After 2010 the functioning of the new illiberal government caused the country to lose ground in the economic catching-up process within the European Union. This setback has manifested through two institutional and two resource allocation-related symptoms, which can be traced back to a more fundamental explanation: the core institutional architecture and political objectives underpinning the Orbán model. Our findings underscore the ongoing tensions between Hungary’s domestic political agenda and the principles underpinning EU integration, raising concerns about Hungarian EU membership.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100785,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Government and Economics","volume":"18 ","pages":"Article 100148"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144597357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Partisan politics and Fed policy choices: A Taylor rule approach","authors":"J. Kevin Corder","doi":"10.1016/j.jge.2025.100142","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jge.2025.100142","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How do the President and the Congress affect the policy choices of the Federal Open Market Committee, the primary policymaking arm of the Federal Reserve System (the Fed)? I draw on a commonly used tool for estimating the sensitivity of Fed responses to output and inflation - the Taylor rule - to learn about the politics of monetary policy. Does the Fed respond more aggressively to inflation under a Republican President or if a Republican majority controls Congress? Does the Fed respond to recession sooner and with lower interest rates if the President is a Democrat? The results indicate that the ideology of the pivotal legislator influences monetary policy choices, rather than the President alone, appointments to the Board, or the Board chair. The Fed is more responsive to inflation when Republicans control the White House and the Congress.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100785,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Government and Economics","volume":"18 ","pages":"Article 100142"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144099225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Remittance flow determinants and the role of government policy in conflict-affected Palestinian territories","authors":"Mohammad Aref Ibrahim","doi":"10.1016/j.jge.2025.100143","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jge.2025.100143","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study analyzes the determinants of remittance inflow to the Palestinian territories within the framework of chronic political conflict and economic volatility. Remittances are an important source of Palestinian household finance, offering economic security in the face of labor supply shortages, trade barriers, and inflationary stress. Applying an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework, the research studies the short- and long-run interrelations between remittance flows and significant macroeconomic and conflict-related variables such as conflict intensity, poverty, fluctuations in the exchange rate, trade openness, inflation, and unemployment.</div><div>The empirical evidence demonstrates that remittance inflows respond sensitively to economic and political shocks. Poverty and conflict intensity have a direct and robust positive impact, consistent with the altruism hypothesis that migrants respond to crises by increasing financial flows. Migrants also respond to increasing living costs by increasing remittances. Economic hardship, however, especially if sustained, negatively affects remittance flows by constricting migration opportunities and decreasing expatriate workers' income potential. Remittance flows are positively affected by trade openness and exchange rate stability, reflecting the influence of economic integration and financial infrastructure on remittance flow behavior.</div><div>The research offers solid econometric evidence for the stabilizing function of remittances for conflict economies. Whereas remittances serve as an economic buffer, their developmental contribution in the long term is hampered by consumption-driven expenditures and restrictive investment channels. Policy makers must emphasize improving financial inclusion, lowering the cost of transactions, and an investment-friendly policy to leverage remittances to the fullest extent, toward sustainable economic growth. The research also adds to the existing literature on remittances for conflict-affected economies and provides policy recommendations to maximize remittance use for maintaining economic resiliency and development for Palestine.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100785,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Government and Economics","volume":"18 ","pages":"Article 100143"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144108265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can public participation in constitution-making curb corruption?","authors":"Jamie Bologna Pavlik ,&nbsp;Andrew T. Young","doi":"10.1016/j.jge.2025.100140","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jge.2025.100140","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We employ “doubly robust” event studies and matching methods to explore whether public participation in Constitution-making can curb political corruption moving forward. Measures of public participation are drawn from the Constitutionalism and Democracy Database (CDD) (Eisenstadt et al., 2015, 2017a, 2017b) while corruption measures come from the Varieties of Democracy Project (V-Dem) (Coppedge et al., 2023; Pemstein et al., 2023). We generally report statistically insignificant effects. When estimates of public participation on corruption are significant – particularly for judicial corruption – they evidence small effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100785,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Government and Economics","volume":"17 ","pages":"Article 100140"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144098955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}