Evolving Earth最新文献

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Charting the test carbonate content of common late Maastrichtian planktic foraminifera morphotypes 绘制了常见的马斯特里赫特晚期浮游有孔虫形态的测试碳酸盐含量
Evolving Earth Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eve.2025.100069
Kebenle Kesen , Megh Kanvinde , Anup Kumar Shahi , Kumar Hemant Singh , Jahnavi Punekar
{"title":"Charting the test carbonate content of common late Maastrichtian planktic foraminifera morphotypes","authors":"Kebenle Kesen , Megh Kanvinde , Anup Kumar Shahi , Kumar Hemant Singh , Jahnavi Punekar","doi":"10.1016/j.eve.2025.100069","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eve.2025.100069","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":100516,"journal":{"name":"Evolving Earth","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100069"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143912858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
First population analysis in Hadrosauroid dinosaurs (Ornithopoda: Iguanodontia: Hadrosauroidea) 鸭嘴龙类恐龙首次种群分析(鸟脚目:禽龙目:鸭嘴龙总科)
Evolving Earth Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eve.2025.100072
Francisco Javier Jiménez-Moreno , Angel Alejandro Ramírez-Velasco , Patricio Ocampo-Cornejo , Jorge Velázquez-Castro , Rodolfo Palomino-Merino
{"title":"First population analysis in Hadrosauroid dinosaurs (Ornithopoda: Iguanodontia: Hadrosauroidea)","authors":"Francisco Javier Jiménez-Moreno ,&nbsp;Angel Alejandro Ramírez-Velasco ,&nbsp;Patricio Ocampo-Cornejo ,&nbsp;Jorge Velázquez-Castro ,&nbsp;Rodolfo Palomino-Merino","doi":"10.1016/j.eve.2025.100072","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eve.2025.100072","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The study of biological population densities through direct measurements is one of the pillars of modern ecology; however, it does not apply to extinct fauna without modern extant representatives, as is the case with non-avian, plant-eating dinosaurs such as the Hadrosauroidea. On the other hand, mathematical models of population dynamics have also been used to estimate population density without the need for direct measurements. These models, however, require knowledge of population shift rates that are typically obtained through diverse observations. This presents a certain limitation for the use of such models when applied to extinct populations. Still, through the use of ecological analogies, it is possible to estimate population dynamics in extinct faunas. This work, utilizing a differential equation-based population dynamics model, estimates the population density of six species and two specimens of hadrosauroids recorded in Mexican territory, employing ungulate mammals as ecological analogues. The results show that individuals with low body mass, such as Huehuecanahutlus tiquichensis, had a higher average density of 0,69 individuals per square kilometer. For hadrosauroids with higher body mass, such as <em>Magnapaulia laticaudus</em> and the specimen PASAC-1, their population density would be around 0.13 to 0.17 individuals per square kilometer. The inference shows the possible existence of temporal shifts in population density. Maximum and minimum ranges were found due to scenarios of high food productivity or alimentary stress. The former infers a negative correlation between a higher body mass/lesser population density.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100516,"journal":{"name":"Evolving Earth","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100072"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144632000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Response of tropical rainforest to warming during Middle Eocene Climate Optimum (MECO): Evidence from palynological record from the Bartonian deposits of Kutch Basin, Western India 热带雨林对中始新世最适宜气候(MECO)期间气候变暖的响应:来自印度西部卡奇盆地巴顿期沉积物的古生物学记录的证据
Evolving Earth Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eve.2025.100065
Nazim Deori , Poonam Verma , Shailesh Agrawal , M.G. Thakkar , J.M. Patel
{"title":"Response of tropical rainforest to warming during Middle Eocene Climate Optimum (MECO): Evidence from palynological record from the Bartonian deposits of Kutch Basin, Western India","authors":"Nazim Deori ,&nbsp;Poonam Verma ,&nbsp;Shailesh Agrawal ,&nbsp;M.G. Thakkar ,&nbsp;J.M. Patel","doi":"10.1016/j.eve.2025.100065","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eve.2025.100065","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO), at ∼40 Ma, is considered a transient global hyperthermal event that superimposed the long-term cooling phase of the middle to late Eocene. The event is largely construed from the marine province but less in the continental depositional systems. The present palynological and isotopic study from the age-constrained Harudi Formation succession of the Kutch Basin, Western India, aims to understand the impact of MECO warming on Eocene tropical rainforest and environments. The carbon isotopic characterization (δ<sup>13</sup>C values) of the studied succession exhibited a pronounced negative Carbon Isotope Excursion (CIE) of about 2.5 ‰, correlated to the peak warming phase of the MECO event. The middle Eocene climate was warm and wet, as indicated by the existence of a diverse array of tropical flora in the region. Notably, the peak warming MECO phase is characterized by the infringement of deciduous elements, indicating the seasonality in rainfall pattern. The subdued mangrove community is also a testimony to salinity fluctuations in the depositional system due to intermittent surges of fresh-water flux. During the recovery phase after the peak warming, the evergreen flora restored in tropical rainforests and mangroves flourished under relatively stable environmental conditions. However, the diversity patterns show an overall decline in diversity. On a wider perspective, the study demonstrates the sensitivity of the tropical rainforests and mangrove communities in response to fluctuating environmental conditions during the high atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> levels and increased temperatures of MECO.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100516,"journal":{"name":"Evolving Earth","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100065"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143851846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ocean acidification signals through deep time: A review of proxies 海洋酸化的深时间信号:代用指标综述
Evolving Earth Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eve.2024.100056
Subham Patra, Jahnavi Punekar
{"title":"Ocean acidification signals through deep time: A review of proxies","authors":"Subham Patra,&nbsp;Jahnavi Punekar","doi":"10.1016/j.eve.2024.100056","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eve.2024.100056","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Anthropogenic CO₂ levels have increased by nearly 40% from preindustrial levels, with about 30% absorbed by the ocean leading to ocean acidification (OA). The associated carbonate undersaturation can critically affect marine calcifying communities. Major disruptions in the marine carbonate cycling are common throughout the Phanerozoic stratigraphic record, and often coincide with major mass extinctions and faunal turnover events. The anthropogenic OA is progressing at a rate nearly ten times faster than similar events of the past 300 million years. This makes OA research of high priority, and entails a rigorous evaluation of OA events from deep time for perspective. Such efforts are contingent upon reliable proxies. This review compiles geochemical and foraminifera-based proxies, offering a critical assessment of their fidelity, ease of use, and application scope.</div><div>This study evaluates the scope and utility of documented observational and analytical proxies based on factors like the nature of data, and the time, effort and advanced analytical facilities involved. Foraminifera-based observational proxies like morphological and community responses to OA are effective but demand taxonomic expertise. They are further complicated by vital effects, metabolic trade-offs, the influence of stressors other than ocean acidification, and paleogeographic variability in both the magnitude of stress and the organisms' response to it. Well-calibrated analytical (geochemical) proxies offer the potential for rapid, high-resolution records across various sites. All proxies face challenges from diagenetic alterations, which can affect their reliability. However, this review offers the pros/cons and practical recommendations for proxy utility, emphasing the need for a multi-proxy approach to enhance accuracy and cross-verification. Future research must urgently address plankton community responses, OA-tolerant taxa, and localized calcification environments to grasp the full impact of acidification. It is critical to refine lesser-known proxies (e.g., S/Ca) and to rapidly expand datasets on carbonate system parameters across Phanerozoic OA events to advance our understanding and mitigation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100516,"journal":{"name":"Evolving Earth","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100056"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143140566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Chemical weathering proxies: An assessment of their robustness to reconstruct Paleozoic climate conditions 化学风化指标:评估其重建古生代气候条件的稳健性
Evolving Earth Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eve.2024.100054
Franciele Agnesa Trentin , Joice Cagliari , Karlos G.D. Kochhann , Tracy Frank
{"title":"Chemical weathering proxies: An assessment of their robustness to reconstruct Paleozoic climate conditions","authors":"Franciele Agnesa Trentin ,&nbsp;Joice Cagliari ,&nbsp;Karlos G.D. Kochhann ,&nbsp;Tracy Frank","doi":"10.1016/j.eve.2024.100054","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eve.2024.100054","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Several chemical weathering proxies for siliciclastic sedimentary deposits have been proposed over the last fifty years. However, only a few studies have evaluated their robustness for paleoclimate interpretation. Here, we compile published geochemical data for the Early Cambrian to Late Permian to statistically assess the robustness of weathering intensity proxies, as well as to account for biases that may affect the paleoclimatic interpretations. A principal components analysis (PCA) was conducted to assess the reliability of 15 chemical weathering proxies, considering paleoclimate categories inferred for each sedimentary succession. We test the consistency of our PCA model with independent datasets of Permian sedimentary rocks and modern soils. The distribution of paleoclimate categories follows a trend on the PC-1 axis, from arid conditions on the positive side to humid climates on the negative side. Modern soil samples show a similar distribution on the PC-1 axis, corroborating the interpretation that the first dimension of PCA in paleorecords is linked to chemical weathering intensity. Therefore, we suggest that all proxies represented by the PC-1 axis are suitable for chemical weathering intensity reconstructions, and, consequently, paleoclimate interpretations. However, it is necessary to consider other controlling factors that can affect the chemical weathering signal in deep-time siliciclastic sedimentary deposits, such as provenance, hydraulic sorting, diageneses, and recycling.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100516,"journal":{"name":"Evolving Earth","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100054"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143140578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mineralogical and geochemical studies of shales from Kopili Formation, Dima Hasao district Assam, North East India: Insights into diagenesis, deposition and provenance 印度东北部阿萨姆邦迪马哈索地区科皮里地层页岩的矿物学和地球化学研究:对成因、沉积和出处的见解
Evolving Earth Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eve.2024.100039
Amit Tiwari , S.L. Memory , Joe Joseph , R.R. Meshram
{"title":"Mineralogical and geochemical studies of shales from Kopili Formation, Dima Hasao district Assam, North East India: Insights into diagenesis, deposition and provenance","authors":"Amit Tiwari ,&nbsp;S.L. Memory ,&nbsp;Joe Joseph ,&nbsp;R.R. Meshram","doi":"10.1016/j.eve.2024.100039","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eve.2024.100039","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Eocene Kopili Formation in the Assam foreland basin records sediment sources, tectonic activity and depositional environments following the India-Eurasia collision. Mineralogical and geochemical analysis of these shales exposed near Garampani, Assam, NE India was conducted to study the diagenesis, palaeoweathering, palaeosalinity, redox conditions, tectonic settings and provenance. The Kopili Formation is composed of mainly shale with thin beds of limestone, black shale and sandstone and these units overlie the Upper Sylhet Limestone. The presence of goethite-rich phosphatic nodules, secondary precipitation within the fissile planes of shale and the occurrence of anatase, talc, smectite and chlorite suggest diagenesis. The prevalence of kaolinite and mean Chemical Index of Alteration (CIA), Chemical Index of Weathering (CIW), Al<sub>2</sub>O<sub>3</sub>/MgO and Rb/Sr values of 86.73, 97.26, 16.36 and 1.32, respectively indicates extensive source rock weathering in humid tropical climate. The Index of Compositional Variation (ICV) values ranging between 0.47 and 2.38 also signify high weathering and tectonically active basin. The Sr/Ba ratio 0.34 ± 0.27 (mean±2σ) suggest overall freshwater basin. The Ni/Co (2.84 ± 2.29), V/Cr (1.65 ± 0.45) and Ce/Ce∗ (0.97 ± 0.63) suggest fluctuating redox environment. The samples predominantly cluster in continental island arc domain on the Th-Sc-Zr/10, La-Th-Sc and Th-Co-Zr/10 discriminant diagrams. Elemental ratios of Th/Sc, La/Sc, Cr/Th with average 0.91, 3.18, 10.13 respectively and La/Th-Hf plot suggest a felsic source rock. The Kopili shale was deposited in freshwater, continental island arc basin with fluctuating redox conditions, receiving sediments from weathered Himalayan granites and gneisses under a warm and humid climate. Subsequently, they underwent diagenetic alteration by low-pH fluid(s).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100516,"journal":{"name":"Evolving Earth","volume":"2 ","pages":"Article 100039"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142532619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fire in the Carboniferous earth system 石炭纪地球系统中的火
Evolving Earth Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eve.2024.100044
Andrew C. Scott
{"title":"Fire in the Carboniferous earth system","authors":"Andrew C. Scott","doi":"10.1016/j.eve.2024.100044","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eve.2024.100044","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Carboniferous is the first geological Period to experience extensive wildfire. A combination of the diversification of land vegetation and its spread into all major terrestrial settings and the rise in atmospheric oxygen paved the way for the development of significant wildfire occurrence that had a significant impact upon the global Earth system. Here the occurrence and study of Carboniferous charcoal deposits is outlined together with an assessment of the evolution of wildfire systems. The influence of fire on plant distribution is assessed. The impact that wildfire had an impact on terrestrial sedimentary systems is described with examples of post-fire erosion and deposition. The wider redistribution of phosphorous in both terrestrial and marine systems is also considered and it is suggested that such events may have played a role in the formation of black shales both in the lacustrine and the marine environment. The role of fire in relation to the evolution of several plant traits is discussed and it is concluded that at least three – the dropping of coniferous lower branches, the shedding of lycopsid leaves from the trunks of arborescent forms and the development of extensive bark and periderm in a range of plants have some merit. Equally the rise of the liana habit, especially in the pteridosperms may also have had an impact in the spread of wildfires in the Pennsylvanian. It is suggested that the role of wildfire (that today is so important and significant) be considered by geologists and palaeonotologists not only concerned with the evolution of the Carboniferous earth system but also in the Earth system from at least the early Silurian and throughout the rest of the Phanerozoic.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100516,"journal":{"name":"Evolving Earth","volume":"2 ","pages":"Article 100044"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142721859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Morphometry and active tectonics of the Konkan coast, western India 印度西部康康海岸的形态和活动构造
Evolving Earth Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eve.2024.100041
Shatavisa Chatterjee , Kutubuddin Ansari , Mery Biswas , Soumyajit Mukherjee , B. Kavitha
{"title":"Morphometry and active tectonics of the Konkan coast, western India","authors":"Shatavisa Chatterjee ,&nbsp;Kutubuddin Ansari ,&nbsp;Mery Biswas ,&nbsp;Soumyajit Mukherjee ,&nbsp;B. Kavitha","doi":"10.1016/j.eve.2024.100041","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eve.2024.100041","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Indian western coast is petroliferous and draws attention from academicians and industrial experts. In this work, geomorphic indices have been calculated to decode neotectonics of the Konkan onshore region on India's west coast. Earthquake and Bouguer anomaly data have been used along with the present-day stress data from the World Stress Map project. Gravity modeling was performed in order to gain seismotectonic insights. The b-values were determined using Z-MAP 7.1 (2021). Morphometric analysis at both linear and spatial scales were performed using the digital elevation model from the data derived from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, analyzed with ArcGIS 10.3 (2014) software. Maps depicting slopes, aspects, and reliefs were created. NW-SE trending lineaments in the Konkan plain guided the major stream courses. Two of the five watersheds, watersheds 4 and 5, reveal high tectonic activity, are landslide-prone and host hot springs. Interestingly, watersheds 4 and 5 show high b-values (except near the rivers' sources), low Bouguer anomalies, and higher Hypsometric integral values (0.18523 and 0.16698) than the other watersheds. A low b-value in watershed 3 indicates stress accumulation. Over a larger area, the gravity trend varies from ∼ −80 to 30 mGal. The lineaments diagram deduced from the first vertical derivative technique shows that the structural fabrics mostly trend ∼ NW-SE at the west of the Western Ghat Escarpment (WGE) while it is NE-SW at the east. The tilt derivative ratio technique reveals a major NE-SW trend to the west of the WGE and an E-W trend to the east. Structural interpretations based on drill-cores around Koyna combined with geophysical studies for deep crust will be required are required for a better understanding of the blind (active) structures in the region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100516,"journal":{"name":"Evolving Earth","volume":"2 ","pages":"Article 100041"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142662892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tackling ongoing crises with collective evolutionary knowledge 用集体进化知识应对持续危机
Evolving Earth Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eve.2024.100043
Emma U. Hammarlund , Liselotte Jauffred , Nicole R. Posth , Karina K. Sand
{"title":"Tackling ongoing crises with collective evolutionary knowledge","authors":"Emma U. Hammarlund ,&nbsp;Liselotte Jauffred ,&nbsp;Nicole R. Posth ,&nbsp;Karina K. Sand","doi":"10.1016/j.eve.2024.100043","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eve.2024.100043","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Living organisms and their communities are evolving through time as a result of adaptation to stressors like competition or environmental change. While species also today compete for habitable space and adapt to temperature changes, stressors like antibiotic resistance and climate change can be described as grand challenges to our current human communities. However, humans are also the species that uniquely and actively can influence its own fate by leveraging knowledge of challenges ahead. What hinders us from a unified approach through research is that our understanding of grand challenges and how to meet them remains fragmented and curated within distinct disciplines. Developing a <em>collective</em> framework, requires breaking down disciplinary barriers, which comes at a cost to the research productivity of individual researchers. Here, we discuss how collective evolutionary insights are essential to identify, characterize, and tackle three emergent grand challenges and what lies beyond. We also assess solutions to ease the productivity burden to the individual researcher and propose a path forward to transform current siloed knowledge into impactful tools for tackling the oncoming global challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100516,"journal":{"name":"Evolving Earth","volume":"2 ","pages":"Article 100043"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142662894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exploring urban land surface temperature with geospatial and regression modelling techniques in Uttarakhand using SVM, OLS and GWR models 利用 SVM、OLS 和 GWR 模型,利用地理空间和回归建模技术探索北阿坎德邦的城市地表温度
Evolving Earth Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eve.2024.100038
Waiza Khalid , Syed Kausar Shamim , Ateeque Ahmad
{"title":"Exploring urban land surface temperature with geospatial and regression modelling techniques in Uttarakhand using SVM, OLS and GWR models","authors":"Waiza Khalid ,&nbsp;Syed Kausar Shamim ,&nbsp;Ateeque Ahmad","doi":"10.1016/j.eve.2024.100038","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eve.2024.100038","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Given the climate change challenges, Uttarakhand has become crucial for examining land dynamics and regional climate interactions. This study employed a Support Vector Machine (SVM) for land use and land cover mapping for 2024, achieving 94% accuracy and a Kappa coefficient of 0.90, indicating robust mapping. Key land indices such as NDVI, NDWI, NDBI, NDSI, and NDBaI were calculated, along with Land Surface Temperature (LST) from Landsat 8 imagery. These indices were selected for their relevance in representing vegetation health (NDVI), measuring water content (NDWI), assessing urban areas (NDBI), identifying snow cover (NDSI), and highlighting the barren land (NDBaI), which all influence LST. Hotspot analysis with Getis-Ord Gi∗ revealed spatial distribution patterns of LST. Regression analysis showed significant relationships: a strong positive correlation between LST and NDBI (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.78) and a substantial negative correlation between LST and NDSI (R<sup>2</sup> = −0.80). The strong positive correlation highlights how urbanization contributes to rising surface temperatures, while the substantial negative correlation underscores the cooling effect of snow cover, which is particularly relevant as reduced snow cover could lead to higher LST in the context of climate change. These correlations offer deeper insights into how land cover changes can exacerbate or mitigate climate impacts in Uttarakhand. Two regression models were used for statistical modeling and spatial analysis: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). In OLS, the results reveal non-stationarity (p = 0.000) with an R<sup>2</sup> value of 0.79 while GWR significantly enhanced performance, achieving an R<sup>2</sup> value of 0.94. The improved performance of GWR (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.94) compared to OLS (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.79) can be attributed to GWR’s ability to account for spatial non-stationarity. This method allows for variations in relationships between LST and explanatory variables across different locations, effectively capturing local patterns that OLS may overlook. Spatial autocorrelation analysis, utilizing Moran’s I, exhibited a decrease from 0.606 (OLS) to 0.02 (GWR), This reduction indicates that GWR effectively captures spatial non-stationarity, minimizing residual autocorrelation by modeling local relationships between LST and its predictors that often remain in global models like OLS, thereby demonstrating its advantages in heterogeneous regions. The findings underscore the importance of employing GWR to better elucidate the connection between LST and its predictors, specifically in regions characterized by spatial non-stationarity, thereby offering insights crucial for informed decision-making amidst changing climatic conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100516,"journal":{"name":"Evolving Earth","volume":"2 ","pages":"Article 100038"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142446423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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