{"title":"Internal and external uncertainties and macroeconomic downside risk in China","authors":"Yongdong Shi , Xiaofeng Xu , Hongxian Zhen","doi":"10.1016/j.ceqi.2026.03.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ceqi.2026.03.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Focusing on the macroeconomic downside risk under uncertainty shocks, we begin by refining the measurement of China's internal and external economic uncertainties, and the adjustment for extreme outliers caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is effective in enhancing the accuracy of uncertainty measurements. We then employ a quantile vector autoregression model to investigate the relationship between internal and external economic uncertainties and China's macroeconomic downside risk. The results indicate that when the economy is experiencing slow growth, the negative effects of internal uncertainty shocks become more pronounced. A high-intensity internal uncertainty shock may significantly increase the downside risk of China's economic growth. External uncertainty shocks can not only exert a direct impact on the downside risk of China's economy but also induce indirect disturbances by amplifying the internal uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100238,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Quarterly International","volume":"6 1","pages":"Pages 29-39"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147601870","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The policy of tax credit bank loan promotes employment in small and micro enterprises","authors":"Chen Feng , Shuning Liang , Cong Li , Xiaofang Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.ceqi.2026.03.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ceqi.2026.03.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using the policy of tax credit bank loan (TCBL) as a case study, this paper examines how the reduction in asymmetry in the information of “Banks, Tax Authorities, and Enterprises” affects the level of employment of small and micro enterprises. This paper finds that the implementation of the TCBL can significantly increase the employment level and employment growth rate of SMEs. This effect primarily stems from the increase in the financing level of micro and small enterprises and the expansion of the sector. Moreover, the policy is associated with positive gains in firm productivity and production capacity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100238,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Quarterly International","volume":"6 1","pages":"Pages 40-51"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147601871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Shifting the safety net: Does social health insurance reshape intergenerational support?","authors":"Si Shi , Bingxin Hu , Yawen Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.ceqi.2026.02.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ceqi.2026.02.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of China's Urban-Rural Resident Basic Medical Insurance (URRBMI) integration on intergenerational economic transfers within rural families. Exploiting its staggered rollout as a quasi-natural experiment, we employ a difference-in-differences design with the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. Results show that the integration policy significantly increases downward transfers from parents to children, particularly among married, healthier parents with fewer children and no grandchild-care responsibilities in eastern and central regions. Conversely, we find no significant effect on upward transfers from children to parents. Mechanism analyses suggest that the policy enhances parents' willingness and capacity to support children by alleviating medical expenses and uncertainty about future health costs, rather than increasing labor participation. Overall, URRBMI integration shifts private family risk-sharing toward children without reducing upward transfers. The concentration of benefits among relatively advantaged parents indicates uneven distributional effects and limited protection for more vulnerable rural elders.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100238,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Quarterly International","volume":"6 1","pages":"Pages 1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147419724","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"From algorithm to alliance: The role of AI in shaping corporate collaborative innovation","authors":"Sijin He, Pengfei Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ceqi.2026.03.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ceqi.2026.03.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Based on data from Chinese manufacturing listed companies between 2010 and 2024, this study empirically examines the impact of corporate artificial intelligence (AI) adoption on collaborative innovation performance and its underlying mechanisms. The results indicate that AI application not only directly enhances collaborative innovation but also exerts an indirect effect through two mediating channels: reducing knowledge acquisition costs and strengthening knowledge integration capability. Further analysis of moderating effects reveals that this positive impact is more pronounced in contexts characterized by a strong collaborative culture and a lower regional litigation risk. By adopting a dual-mechanism perspective of “cost and capability” in knowledge management, this research systematically uncovers the intrinsic pathways through which AI enables collaborative innovation, providing valuable theoretical insights and practical implications for understanding how AI technology reshapes inter-organizational knowledge collaboration and innovation models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100238,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Quarterly International","volume":"6 1","pages":"Pages 16-28"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147546967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does judicial improvement promote corporate trade credit financing? Evidence from the establishment of circuit courts in China","authors":"Lu Yao , Yifei Liang , Mengde Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ceqi.2025.12.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ceqi.2025.12.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The establishment of circuit courts is an important measure to enhance judicial impartiality and independence, and thus improve the local judicial environment. This paper takes the establishment of circuit court as a quasi-natural experiment of judicial improvement, and empirically examines the impact of judicial improvement on trade credit financing by using a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model with Chinese firms from 2009 to 2023 as the research sample. It is found that the trade credit financing of enterprises after the establishment of the circuit court increases significantly. The mechanism test indicates that improving local judicial efficiency, alleviating local protectionism and reducing corporate defaults are important channels through which the establishment of circuit courts promotes corporate trade credit financing. Heterogeneity tests indicate that the positive effect of circuit court establishment on trade credit financing is systematically stronger for a state-owned enterprises, firms without political connections, and those exhibiting higher gross profit margins, smaller size, or weaker pre-existing financing capacity. This paper provides empirical evidence that the legal environment improvement is conductive to the financial market development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100238,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Quarterly International","volume":"5 4","pages":"Pages 213-235"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145799828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does distance promote consumption: The role of city shape","authors":"Chunzhi Li , Wenhan Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ceqi.2025.12.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ceqi.2025.12.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recently, studies have emphasized the consumption amenities of cities, which are as important as city morphology. This study provides empirical evidence that addresses questions regarding the impact of city shape on consumption in China. This study uses night-light data to quantify the compactness of city shapes of Chinese cities. Four indices of city shape were calculated to reflect the different morphological properties of each city. IVs are constructed to mitigate endogeneity problems derived from time-varying historical features and non-time-varying geographical characteristics. The results indicate that higher compactness induces higher consumption by increasing intra-city travel frequency and disposable income. Transforming the samples and empirical equations did not affect the robustness of the results. Heterogeneity exists among households, with high-income households and households with young heads being less sensitive to changes in city-shape compactness. City shape does not affect marginal propensity to consume. This study emphasizes the importance of maintaining a compact city shape, and policies improving the intra-city transportation infrastructure can alleviate the negative consumption impact of non-compact city shapes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100238,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Quarterly International","volume":"5 4","pages":"Pages 236-251"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145842250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Firm's basic research and breakthrough innovation-- from the perspective of resource-based view","authors":"Mingnian Liu , Lin Huang , Yu Shen","doi":"10.1016/j.ceqi.2026.01.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ceqi.2026.01.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With intensifying global competition and rapid technological advancement, breakthrough innovation has become a critical avenue for firms to build sustainable competitive advantages. Based on a resource-based view, we provide a theoretical foundation to explain that high-quality basic research plays a fundamental role to achieve firms’ breakthrough innovation. By using Chinese dataset, we find that firms with strong basic research capabilities can boost their breakthrough innovation. Further analyses show that basic research facilitates breakthrough innovation through three mechanisms: enhancing knowledge diversity, increasing access to government R&D subsidies, and strengthening R&D collaboration. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that the effect of basic research is more pronounced for firms with higher absorptive capacity, larger firm size, and in technology-intensive sectors. Moreover, the positive impact of basic research on breakthrough innovation is stronger in more competitive industries. These findings have important implications for understanding the role of corporate basic research in fostering breakthrough innovation, particularly under increasing external technological constraints.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100238,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Quarterly International","volume":"5 4","pages":"Pages 268-285"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146074083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does the housing provident fund crowd out the households’ non-housing consumption? Evidence from Chinese micro data","authors":"Anquan Zhang , Jiaxin Xiong , Lu Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ceqi.2026.01.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ceqi.2026.01.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the causal effect of mandatory housing provident fund (HPF) contributions on non-housing consumption patterns among urban Chinese households. Leveraging cross-sectional data from the 2017 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS), we employ instrumental variable estimation to address endogeneity arising from reverse causality and omitted variable bias. Results reveal a statistically significant negative association between HPF contributions and discretionary spending: An RMB 1 increase in per capita HPF outlays corresponds to an RMB 0.843 decline in non-housing consumption. Strikingly, this crowd-out effect intensifies among households that refrain from utilizing HPF for residential purposes—exhibiting a marginal propensity to consume reduction of RMB 1.492 per yuan contributed. Heterogeneity analyses further demonstrate that low-income families, who exhibit lower HPF withdrawal probabilities, bear the inhibitory effect: Their non-housing expenditures decrease more relative to higher-income counterparts under equivalent contribution levels. In both the theoretical and empirical models, the results suggest that whether a household has an HPF does matter, but it is more important for the household to take advantage of its lending capacity to mitigate liquidity constraints, rather than merely participate in it.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100238,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Quarterly International","volume":"5 4","pages":"Pages 252-267"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Institutional opening-up promotes local enterprises’ innovation: From the perspective of standards opening-up","authors":"Zhihao Yang , Junjie Hong","doi":"10.1016/j.ceqi.2025.11.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ceqi.2025.11.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The participation of foreign-invested enterprises in the formulation of national standards is taken as an opportunity to identify standards opening-up, and the impact of standards opening-up on local firms' innovation is examined. It is found that standards opening-up promotes local firms' innovation, works through collaboration between Chinese and foreign firms, market competition, and information transmission mechanism, and influences upstream and downstream innovation along the industrial chain. In addition, standards opening-up promotes firms’ product upgrading and exporting, standards harmonization, and foreign investment stabilization. These findings explain the significance of steady expansion of institutional opening-up.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100238,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Quarterly International","volume":"5 3","pages":"Pages 200-211"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145528602","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Administrative monopoly regulation and employee wages: Evidence from Fair competition review system in China","authors":"Pengcheng Jiang , Yujia Niu","doi":"10.1016/j.ceqi.2025.10.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ceqi.2025.10.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Unlike previous studies examining how monopoly regulation policies affect enterprise behavior, this study uses the implementation of China's Fair Competition Review System as a quasi-natural experiment. This study uses data from non-financial listed enterprises and employs a difference-in-differences model to explore the impact and mechanism of administrative monopoly regulation on employee wages. The results show that administrative monopoly regulation can reduce average employee wages in administrative monopoly enterprises. This negative effect is more pronounced in firms with lower financing constraints and higher operating profits and in provinces with stronger government intervention. The economic mechanism test results indicate that reducing economic rent, curbing the labor scale, and increasing financing constraints are important mechanisms through which administrative monopoly regulation curbs excessively high compensation in these enterprises. Finally, this study finds that administrative monopoly regulation helps narrow the internal compensation gap of administrative monopoly enterprises.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100238,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Quarterly International","volume":"5 3","pages":"Pages 177-189"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145425329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}