Inequality of opportunity and fertility intentions

Abstract

Today's parents prioritize their children's future opportunities and well-being over the costs and benefits of child-rearing. Inequality of opportunity (IO) worsens children's developmental prospects and reduces fertility intentions. Using nationally representative data from China, we show that IO profoundly undermines parents' motivation to have children across social groups. Mechanism analyses show that residents of areas with high IO have less confidence in the future and postpone their first marriages and first children. Moreover, facing IO-induced depreciation of educational attainment, to avoid a decline in educational attainment or status, parents instead increase investment in children's education to improve their skills and quality, thereby suppressing fertility intentions. This study underscores that addressing IO is not merely a matter of equity but a demographic necessity.

D63 J13 D31.