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Influence of measurement uncertainty inherent in sustained load testing data on the displacement forecast of bonded anchors 持续荷载试验数据测量不确定度对粘结锚杆位移预测的影响
ce/papers Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1002/cepa.3328
Elisabeth Stierschneider, Alexios Tamparopoulos, Oliver Zeman, Konrad Bergmeister
{"title":"Influence of measurement uncertainty inherent in sustained load testing data on the displacement forecast of bonded anchors","authors":"Elisabeth Stierschneider,&nbsp;Alexios Tamparopoulos,&nbsp;Oliver Zeman,&nbsp;Konrad Bergmeister","doi":"10.1002/cepa.3328","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/cepa.3328","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The product qualification of bonded fasteners is regulated in a European Assessment Document, where a comprehensive test program to evaluate the sensitivity of bonded fasteners to different installation and environmental conditions is included. Sustained load testing as part of this program is used for the long-term displacement forecast to assess the creep behaviour of the anchors over time. The prescribed standard procedure for the assessment of sustained load tests is the Findley power-law methodology. The measured displacements are extrapolated to a working life of 50 years and compared with the displacement at loss of adhesion as limiting value. As a result of this power-law methodology, also the inherent measurement uncertainty of the displacements is extrapolated over time. The first step to quantify this influence is the determination of the measurement uncertainty for the considered sustained load testing task and the used equipment for a specific sustained load data set. Based on Monte-Carlo simulations with the measured displacement and the combined standard uncertainty of the testing task as input parameters, a high number of displacement curves is generated. By analysing the scatter of the calculated displacement extrapolations for 50 years, the influence of the measurement uncertainty is quantified for the considered data set.</p>","PeriodicalId":100223,"journal":{"name":"ce/papers","volume":"8 3-4","pages":"266-273"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/cepa.3328","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144998979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Some Practical Methods for Damage Assessment of Underground Structures using Machine Learning Techniques and Probabilistic Models. 利用机器学习技术和概率模型进行地下结构损伤评估的一些实用方法。
ce/papers Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1002/cepa.3320
Quang Phich Nguyen, Tham Hong Duong
{"title":"Some Practical Methods for Damage Assessment of Underground Structures using Machine Learning Techniques and Probabilistic Models.","authors":"Quang Phich Nguyen,&nbsp;Tham Hong Duong","doi":"10.1002/cepa.3320","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/cepa.3320","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article reviews some practical methods of failure assessment for underground structures such as tunnels and deep excavations during construction stages in urban regions. Many factors, including random variables and parameters with statistically quantified values and laws of distribution, are tentatively considered to evaluate their effects on the failure of a specific objective (i.e., settlement of surface, the collapse risk of the diaphragm wall, etc.). A numerical model for a real sector (subsurface 2.9 km in length) of tunnel ‘Metro Line No1 Sai Gon-Suoi Tien’ is created to estimate the reliability index of the tunnel sector and to predict possible risks for the structure system. By manipulating the input data (predictors) in the numerical model, data about the response (i.e., settlement of the existing buildings) could be collected that are sufficient for estimating the probability of failure, Pf, which is nearly 8 % for BaSon area, and particularly equals 23.8 % for Ben Thanh area; this would be compared to the probability Pf predicted by using some non-parametric machine learning techniques such as multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS). Besides, some probabilistic methods, such as the Taguchi method, are also reviewed for the failure of a deep excavation case study, from which the percentage of contribution of each predictor to the failure is quantified.</p>","PeriodicalId":100223,"journal":{"name":"ce/papers","volume":"8 3-4","pages":"459-468"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144999025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impact of structural solutions on the design of high-rise RC structures in long corner period seismic areas 结构方案对长角期地震区高层钢筋混凝土结构设计的影响
ce/papers Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1002/cepa.3312
Dietlinde Köber
{"title":"Impact of structural solutions on the design of high-rise RC structures in long corner period seismic areas","authors":"Dietlinde Köber","doi":"10.1002/cepa.3312","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/cepa.3312","url":null,"abstract":"<p>One of the central struggles of engineers is to create sustainable buildings and enhance the usable area for often limited construction site dimensions. One possible and often considered solution is the design of high-rise structures. When placed in seismic areas the seismic response of high-rise structures may become difficult to control. The current study investigates the structural performance of several structural solutions for a 30 stories structure to be built for high ductility class in a seismic area with corner period of 1.8s. The main issue to be solved refers to provide enough stiffness to reduce excessive lateral displacement of structural elements and limit damage of nonstructural elements. Following structural solutions were investigated and compared: (i) central core with perimeter frames and different distributions of rigid stories; (ii) central core with perimeter frames and interior walls and (iii) central core with perimeter frames and dampers. The comparison was made in terms of lateral drift, base shear force, overturning moment and lateral stiffness variations. It turned out that the design of a regular, almost symmetric high-rise structure may face a large range of uncertainties to come up with a functional structural concept. The safety level promoted by seismic design codes rises with each code generation and structural requirements enhance. Future design of high-rise structures in long corner period seismic areas will most probably become impossible without the help of anti-seismic devices.</p>","PeriodicalId":100223,"journal":{"name":"ce/papers","volume":"8 3-4","pages":"88-96"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144998887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Shear strength code models uncertainties assessment based on probabilistic simulation 基于概率模拟的抗剪强度代码模型不确定性评估
ce/papers Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1002/cepa.3332
Drahomír Novák, Jakub Večeře, Martina Šomodíková, Renata Kotynia
{"title":"Shear strength code models uncertainties assessment based on probabilistic simulation","authors":"Drahomír Novák,&nbsp;Jakub Večeře,&nbsp;Martina Šomodíková,&nbsp;Renata Kotynia","doi":"10.1002/cepa.3332","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/cepa.3332","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In the paper, a shear strength probabilistic assessment of concrete members with steel reinforcement is performed. The shear strength is analyzed by modelling with low-fidelity models – analytical formulas based on two main approaches to predict the shear strength of reinforced concrete beams with and without shear reinforcement: the modified compression field theory and the truss model. Based on a comparison of these low-fidelity analytical models and experimental data, model uncertainties can be evaluated. The aim of the analysis performed is to verify the existing code analytical formulas for shear strength calculation using stochastic models, to perform uncertainty propagation, sensitivity analysis and model uncertainty assessment. The code models of EN 1992-1-1, ACI 318 and fib Model Code 2010 are examined with respect to uncertainties involved and the reliability of the design value determination.</p>","PeriodicalId":100223,"journal":{"name":"ce/papers","volume":"8 3-4","pages":"431-436"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/cepa.3332","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144997881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Physics-informed Polynomial Chaos Expansion for Uncertainty Quantification of S-N Curves S-N曲线不确定量化的物理通知多项式混沌展开
ce/papers Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1002/cepa.3333
Lukáš Novák, Alhussain Yousef, David Lehký, Drahomír Novák, Panagiotis Spyridis
{"title":"Physics-informed Polynomial Chaos Expansion for Uncertainty Quantification of S-N Curves","authors":"Lukáš Novák,&nbsp;Alhussain Yousef,&nbsp;David Lehký,&nbsp;Drahomír Novák,&nbsp;Panagiotis Spyridis","doi":"10.1002/cepa.3333","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/cepa.3333","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The paper presents an application of physics-informed polynomial chaos expansion for uncertainty quantification of a characteristic fatigue curve (S-N curve) representing a number of loading cycles leading to a failure of a material or a product. Since there is a significant uncertainty affecting the S-N curve caused by variability of material parameters, it is crucial to also identify a joint probability distribution of the S-N curve instead of a deterministic curve. Therefore, the employed method combines physics of the approximated curve in form of deterministic Woehler curve with data from experiments affected by uncertainty of material parameters. The proposed method respects the local variability of the initially identified fatigue curve and it could serve for identification of an optimal experimental design in specific regions of the fatigue curve, which will sequentially improve the accuracy of the identified curve as well as local statistics. The presented theoretical method is applied for identification of S-N curve based on laboratory experiments of concrete fasteners. The results demonstrated that the proposed method facilitates sequential enrichment of experimental design based on <i>p</i>-adaptivity and variance-based active learning. The active learning led to a substantial reduction in the size of the dataset while ensuring the integrity of the approximations.</p>","PeriodicalId":100223,"journal":{"name":"ce/papers","volume":"8 3-4","pages":"183-189"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/cepa.3333","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144998645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Risk assessment of all Swiss railway and highway bridges 瑞士所有铁路和公路桥梁的风险评估
ce/papers Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1002/cepa.3319
Dirk Proske, Ronny Standtke
{"title":"Risk assessment of all Swiss railway and highway bridges","authors":"Dirk Proske,&nbsp;Ronny Standtke","doi":"10.1002/cepa.3319","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/cepa.3319","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper presents the risk assessment of all bridges on the Swiss railways and Swiss highways, overall app. 14 000 bridges. In contrast to the usual approach, this study uses adjusted collapse frequencies instead of failure probabilities. The adjustments are based on statistical and AI evaluations of collapse databases and literature reviews and are carried out by factors specific to each bridge based on bridge databases. In addition, the consequence parameters for the bridges are determined specifically on the means of transport, the traffic volume, the detour route, and potential loss of life. As a result, the bridges are divided into risk categories and risk lists. Besides a short explanation of the procedure, several related topics are briefly discussed. For example, the consequences of the analysis in terms of bridge closure and further steps are also indicated. The paper is an extension of a former investigation of the Swiss railway bridges only. The paper finishes with a short discussion of open issues such as correlation either between certain adjustment factors and between certain bridges, for example during a flood.</p>","PeriodicalId":100223,"journal":{"name":"ce/papers","volume":"8 3-4","pages":"198-205"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144998888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inferring global and detailed structural building variables from prior probabilities, historical structural design and Bayesian Networks 从先验概率、历史结构设计和贝叶斯网络推断全局和详细的结构建筑变量
ce/papers Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1002/cepa.3356
Lombe Mutale, Ramon Hingorani, Jochen Köhler
{"title":"Inferring global and detailed structural building variables from prior probabilities, historical structural design and Bayesian Networks","authors":"Lombe Mutale,&nbsp;Ramon Hingorani,&nbsp;Jochen Köhler","doi":"10.1002/cepa.3356","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/cepa.3356","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The lack of data on existing buildings inhibits circular economy strategies, such as reuse. To overcome this issue, the current study infers unknowns using Bayesian Networks (BNs), which are directed acyclic graphs of probabilistic variables. The study proposes two types of BNs to infer probabilities of variables of existing buildings. The first BN is based on conditional probability tables and associations between global building variables. The second builds on this with detailed structural load variables via engineering equations from historical structural design codes. The BNs generated probabilistic estimates which reflect uncertainty in the input data. With increased evidence, the BNs' estimates were updated, thereby reducing uncertainty of inferred building variables. Urban planners can use the tool to estimate building variables without physically measuring existing buildings, thereby enabling circular construction planning. Future studies may expand the BN to include more structural design equations to infer additional structural building variables.</p>","PeriodicalId":100223,"journal":{"name":"ce/papers","volume":"8 3-4","pages":"316-323"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144997964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Recommendations on the quantification of spatial correlation in ground properties and its effects on geotechnical design 关于地基性质空间相关性的量化及其对岩土设计的影响的建议
ce/papers Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1002/cepa.3310
Maximilian Huber, Rainer Weißmann, Julia Sorgatz
{"title":"Recommendations on the quantification of spatial correlation in ground properties and its effects on geotechnical design","authors":"Maximilian Huber,&nbsp;Rainer Weißmann,&nbsp;Julia Sorgatz","doi":"10.1002/cepa.3310","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/cepa.3310","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Geotechnical design must address unknown, complex, and heterogeneous ground conditions, which are typically investigated through direct methods such as core drilling combined with indirect methods like standard penetration tests. However, such ground investigations often provide only limited, point-specific information. To make full use of the available information for the optimization of foundation structures, the upcoming second generation of Eurocode 7 will explicitly allow the application of probabilistic and statistical methods in geotechnical design. In this paper, the well-known method of moments (MoM), also referred to as the geostatistical variogram approach, is explained and compared with the maximum likelihood method (ML) to estimate the spatial correlation of ground properties. Both methods are applied in two case studies that demonstrate the applicability, strengths, and limitations in a practical, non-academic site investigation. Additionally, the concept of spatial averaging is explained as a means of incorporating the derived (auto-)correlation length into practical geotechnical design within the framework of the semi-probabilistic design approach.</p>","PeriodicalId":100223,"journal":{"name":"ce/papers","volume":"8 3-4","pages":"108-116"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144997880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effects of climate change on life-cycle reliability of structures 气候变化对结构全生命周期可靠性的影响
ce/papers Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1002/cepa.3307
Dan M. Frangopol, Mitsuyoshi Akiyama
{"title":"Effects of climate change on life-cycle reliability of structures","authors":"Dan M. Frangopol,&nbsp;Mitsuyoshi Akiyama","doi":"10.1002/cepa.3307","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/cepa.3307","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The resilience of infrastructure is increasingly threatened by climate-induced hazards, such as sea-level rise and intensified rainfall, which challenge conventional engineering assumptions based on stationary conditions. This keynote paper presents recent advances in life-cycle structural reliability assessment under nonstationary climate effects. Probabilistic models incorporating sea-level rise projections and non-Poisson earthquake occurrences reveal amplified tsunami risks to coastal infrastructure. For rainfall-induced landslides, time-dependent fragility functions derived from stochastic rainfall models and slope stability analyses capture escalating failure probabilities across the lifespans of various structures and civil infrastructure systems. Additionally, a revised load and resistance factor design methodology introduces climate-adjusted partial factors for embankment design under future flood scenarios. These approaches integrate climate projections, surrogate modeling, and stochastic processes to better assess dynamic structural vulnerabilities. By aligning structural reliability analysis with evolving environmental conditions, this study supports the development of adaptive, risk-informed infrastructure systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":100223,"journal":{"name":"ce/papers","volume":"8 3-4","pages":"6-11"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144997957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The CIREG Guide to Managing Flood Risk during Construction – an overview, from risk assessment to practical response and mitigation recommendations CIREG施工期间洪水风险管理指南-概述,从风险评估到实际应对和减灾建议
ce/papers Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1002/cepa.3345
Spyridon Konstantis, Trevor Chainey, James Aubrey Robson, Alan Patrick, Mark Allan, Ade Adeyemo, Kevin Province, Panagiotis Spyridis
{"title":"The CIREG Guide to Managing Flood Risk during Construction – an overview, from risk assessment to practical response and mitigation recommendations","authors":"Spyridon Konstantis,&nbsp;Trevor Chainey,&nbsp;James Aubrey Robson,&nbsp;Alan Patrick,&nbsp;Mark Allan,&nbsp;Ade Adeyemo,&nbsp;Kevin Province,&nbsp;Panagiotis Spyridis","doi":"10.1002/cepa.3345","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/cepa.3345","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Flooding is a major cause of physical loss or damage during civil engineering and infrastructure construction, and a key risk for tunnels and underground works. Damage to partially or fully completed projects can lead to high reinstatement and cleanup costs, delays, budget overruns, lost revenue, penalties, and DSU insurance expenses. These impacts affect all stakeholders — clients, designers, consultants, contractors, insurers, and third parties. Where flood risk exists, exposures must be identified, responsibilities defined in contracts, and mitigation measures costed into project delivery. Climate change is making weather patterns more unpredictable, with heavy rain and floods causing significant damage and delays. It also undermines the reliability of historical hydrological data. This guide, compiled by the Construction Insurance Risk Engineers Group (CIREG), focuses on flood risk during construction, shares lessons learned, and provides a reference protocol for risk management. It aims to raise awareness, prompt action, and support the creation of Flood Risk Management Plans, Baseline Reports, and Hazard Maps.</p>","PeriodicalId":100223,"journal":{"name":"ce/papers","volume":"8 3-4","pages":"374-379"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144998828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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