Agricultural Meteorology最新文献_第5页

Theoretical Studies on the Motions of Cloud and Precipitation Particles—A Review 云和降水粒子运动的理论研究综述

Agricultural Meteorology Pub Date : 2022-08-22 DOI: 10.3390/meteorology1030019

Pao K. Wang

引用次数: 0

Validation of Precipitation Type Forecasts Based on ECMWF’s Ensemble Model for Hungary 基于ECMWF集合模式的匈牙利降水类型预报的验证

Agricultural Meteorology Pub Date : 2022-08-09 DOI: 10.3390/meteorology1030018

Dóra Cséke, I. Ihász

引用次数: 1

Process Studies of the Impact of Land-Surface Resolution on Convective Precipitation Based on High-Resolution ICON Simulations 基于高分辨率ICON模拟的地表分辨率对对流降水影响过程研究

Agricultural Meteorology Pub Date : 2022-07-31 DOI: 10.3390/meteorology1030017

Shweta Singh, N. Kalthoff

{"title":"Process Studies of the Impact of Land-Surface Resolution on Convective Precipitation Based on High-Resolution ICON Simulations","authors":"Shweta Singh, N. Kalthoff","doi":"10.3390/meteorology1030017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1030017","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigated the relevant processes responsible for differences of convective precipitation caused by land-surface resolution. The simulations were performed with the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model (ICON) with grid spacing of 156 m and Large Eddy Simulation physics. Regions of different orographic complexity, days with weak synoptic forcing and favourable convective conditions were selected. The resolution of land-surface properties (soil type, vegetation) and/or the orography was reduced from 156 to 5000 m. Analyses are based on backward trajectories (Lagrangian Analysis Tool (LAGRANTO)), heat budget and convective organisation potential (COP) calculations. On average, the relative difference of areal mean daily precipitation at 1250 and 5000 m land-surface resolutions compared to 156 m were 6% and 15%, respectively. No consistent dependency of precipitation on orography or land-surface properties was found. Both factors impact convective initiation over areas with embedded mesoscale-sized land-surface heterogeneities. The position of convective precipitation was often influenced by the resolution of orography. Coarsening from 156 to 5000 m considerably changed the location of wind convergence and associated convection initiation. It also affects the onset times of clouds (<20 min) and precipitation (≈1 h). Cloud aggregation and microphysical processes proved to be important for further development towards convective precipitation.","PeriodicalId":100061,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Meteorology","volume":"174 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89376482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Probabilistic Evaluation of the Multicategory Seasonal Precipitation Re-Forecast 多类别季节降水再预报的概率评价

Agricultural Meteorology Pub Date : 2022-07-13 DOI: 10.3390/meteorology1030016

Yiwen Xu

{"title":"Probabilistic Evaluation of the Multicategory Seasonal Precipitation Re-Forecast","authors":"Yiwen Xu","doi":"10.3390/meteorology1030016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1030016","url":null,"abstract":"The Meteo-France seasonal forecasting system 7 provides a 7-month forecast range with 25 ensembles. The seasonal precipitation re-forecast (from May to November 1993–2015) was evaluated by the Brier score in terms of accuracy and reliability based on tercile probabilities. Multiple analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the score. These results show that the spatial distribution of the Brier score depends significantly on tercile thresholds, reference data, sampling methods, and ensemble types. Large probabilistic errors over the dry regions on land and the Nino regions in the Pacific can be reduced by adjusting the tercile thresholds. The forecast errors were identified when they were insensitive to different analysis methods. All the analyses detected that the errors increase/decrease with the lead time over the tropical Indian/Pacific Ocean. The intra-seasonal analysis reveals that some of these errors are inherited from monthly forecasts, which may be related to large-scale, short-term variability modes. A new confidence interval calculation was formulated for the “uncertain” case in the reference data. The confidence interval at a 95% level for the mean Brier score over the entire tropical region was quantified. The best estimations are ~6% the mean Brier score for both the above and below-normal terciles.","PeriodicalId":100061,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Meteorology","volume":"102 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72630670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Trends in ANPP Response to Temperature in Wetland Meadows across a Subcontinental Gradient in Patagonia 巴塔哥尼亚次大陆梯度湿地草甸ANPP对温度的响应趋势

Agricultural Meteorology Pub Date : 2022-06-17 DOI: 10.3390/meteorology1020015

J. Irisarri, P. Cipriotti, M. Texeira, Matias H. Curcio

{"title":"Trends in ANPP Response to Temperature in Wetland Meadows across a Subcontinental Gradient in Patagonia","authors":"J. Irisarri, P. Cipriotti, M. Texeira, Matias H. Curcio","doi":"10.3390/meteorology1020015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1020015","url":null,"abstract":"Due to ongoing global warming, seasonal patterns of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) may be altered by temperature trends. Of particular interest is the seasonal association between ANPP and temperature at the beginning of the growing season (the period encompassing minimum to maximum ANPP), where two contrasting mechanisms are in tension. On the one hand, the restrictions exerted by low temperatures in winter may be relaxed, increasing the slope of seasonal association between ANPP and temperature over the years. On the other hand, increases in temperature may increase water demand, reducing the slope over time. Across 543 wetland meadow areas in Patagonia, we estimated ANPP and obtained temperature records on a monthly basis from 2001 to 2019. The seasonal association between ANPP and temperature, tested through linear regression, was statistically significant in 96% of the cases (9921/10317 (543 wetland areas × 19 growing seasons)). The fitted linear models explained, on average, 84% of ANPP seasonal (June–December) variations. Through regression trees, we found out that the two tested mechanisms, the relaxation of temperature restriction and the increase in water demand, showed clear spatial patterns. The relaxation due to temperature increase took place at higher latitudes, but the water-limiting mechanism increased over mid-latitude areas.","PeriodicalId":100061,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Meteorology","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78574430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Observations on the Frequency, Duration, and Geographical Extent of Summertime Cold-Front Activity in the Southeastern USA: 1973–2020 美国东南部夏季冷锋活动频率、持续时间和地理范围的观测:1973-2020

Agricultural Meteorology Pub Date : 2022-06-02 DOI: 10.3390/meteorology1020014

T. Mitchell, P. Knapp, Jason T. Ortegren

{"title":"Observations on the Frequency, Duration, and Geographical Extent of Summertime Cold-Front Activity in the Southeastern USA: 1973–2020","authors":"T. Mitchell, P. Knapp, Jason T. Ortegren","doi":"10.3390/meteorology1020014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1020014","url":null,"abstract":"We analyzed summertime (June–August) cold-front activity via frequency and duration in the southeastern USA during 1973–2020 to summarize and identify the temporal trends of the annual and total number of hours associated with cold fronts, cold-front days, and multi-day cold-front events. Using data from 34 ASOS Network stations, we defined summertime cold fronts as events that lowered the dew point temperature below 15.56 °C (< 60 °F). Additionally, we examined 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies associated with years with cold front frequency/duration deviations of +/− 1.0 SD. The extent of the cold-front activity exhibited a north–south latitudinal gradient with a more southerly latitudinal expression on the east side of the Appalachian Mountains and was negligible south of the 30°N latitude. The cold-front activity was most prominent during the first half of June. Our results suggest that all three metrics of summertime cold-front activity were stable at a regional scale during the 48-year study period with a few (three–five) stations experiencing significant decreases. A regional-scale stability was coincident with significant increases in minimum, maximum, and average summertime temperatures in the southeastern USA. Years with either above-average or below-average cold-front activity were concurrent with synoptic conditions that supported either troughing or ridging in the southeastern USA. We conclude that the observed weakening in the southeastern USA warming hole is the result of external and/or internal forcings unrelated to reductions in anomalously cool summer weather.","PeriodicalId":100061,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Meteorology","volume":"95 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82408771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Evaluation of Satellite-Derived Signatures for Three Verified Hailstorms in Central Argentina 阿根廷中部三次验证冰雹的卫星衍生特征评价

Agricultural Meteorology Pub Date : 2022-05-13 DOI: 10.3390/meteorology1020013

Anthony C. Bernal Ayala, A. Rowe, L. Arena, A. Desai

{"title":"Evaluation of Satellite-Derived Signatures for Three Verified Hailstorms in Central Argentina","authors":"Anthony C. Bernal Ayala, A. Rowe, L. Arena, A. Desai","doi":"10.3390/meteorology1020013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1020013","url":null,"abstract":"Córdoba Province in Argentina is a global hotspot for deep hail-producing storms. Previous studies of hail formation and detection largely relied on satellite snapshots or modeling studies, but lacked hail validation, relying instead on proxy metrics. To address this limitation, this study used hail collected in the mountainous Córdoba region in collaboration with the citizen science program “Cosecheros de Granizo 2018–2020” including from a record-breaking hail event and from the 2018–2019 RELAMPAGO field campaign. Three cases including a MCS and two supercells, which have verified hail in different environment locations relative to the Sierras de Córdoba, were analyzed for multi-spectral signatures in GOES-16 satellite data. Brightness temperatures decreased over time after convective initiation, reaching values cooler than the tropopause with variations around those values of different magnitudes. Overall, all cases exhibited a slight weakening of the updraft and strong presence of smaller ice crystal sizes just prior to the hail report, especially for the larger hailstones. The results demonstrate promise in using satellite proxies for hail detection in multiple environments for different storm modes. The long-term goal is to better understand hail-producing storms and unique challenges of forecasting hail in this region.","PeriodicalId":100061,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Meteorology","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83121660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Do Airports Have Their Own Climate? 机场有自己的气候吗?

Agricultural Meteorology Pub Date : 2022-04-26 DOI: 10.3390/meteorology1020012

W. Gough, Andrew C. W. Leung

引用次数: 3

Climate Uncertainties: A Personal View 气候不确定性:个人观点

Agricultural Meteorology Pub Date : 2022-04-18 DOI: 10.3390/meteorology1020011

M. McIntyre

{"title":"Climate Uncertainties: A Personal View","authors":"M. McIntyre","doi":"10.3390/meteorology1020011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1020011","url":null,"abstract":"This essay takes a brief personal look at aspects of the climate problem. The emphasis will be on some of the greatest scientific uncertainties, as suggested by what is known about past as well as present climates, including tipping points that likely occurred in the past and might occur in the near future. In the current state of knowledge and understanding, there is massive uncertainty about such tipping points. For one thing, there might or might not be a domino-like succession, or cascade, of tipping points that ultimately sends the climate system into an Eocene-like state, after an uncertain number of centuries. Sea levels would then be about 70 m higher than today, and surface storminess would likely reach extremes well outside human experience. Such worst-case scenarios are highly speculative. However, there is no way to rule them out with complete confidence. Credible assessments are outside the scope of current climate prediction models. So there has never in human history been a stronger case for applying the precautionary principle. Today there is no room for doubt—even from a purely financial perspective—about the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions urgently and drastically, far more than is possible through so-called “offsetting”.","PeriodicalId":100061,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Meteorology","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79029501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

The First Five Years of the Operational Runs of the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF) during the North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season 北大西洋热带气旋季节飓风预报数值工具(NTHF)首五年的运行情况

Agricultural Meteorology Pub Date : 2022-04-13 DOI: 10.3390/meteorology1020010

A. Pérez‐Alarcón, J. C. Fernández-Alvarez

{"title":"The First Five Years of the Operational Runs of the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF) during the North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season","authors":"A. Pérez‐Alarcón, J. C. Fernández-Alvarez","doi":"10.3390/meteorology1020010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1020010","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we evaluated the ability of the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF) system, operational at the Department of Meteorology of the Higher Institute of Technologies and Applied Sciences, University of Havana, Cuba, for forecasting the intensity and trajectory of the North Atlantic (NATL) tropical cyclones (TCs). To assess the ability of the NTHF system in the first five years (2016–2020) of operational runs, we used the best tracks from the National Hurricane Center HURDAT2 database. The errors in the track forecast increased linearly from 41 km at 6 h to 356 km at 120 h. In addition, NTHF underestimates the intensity of TCs, especially those that reach Category 3+ hurricanes on the Saffir–Simpson wind scale. Overall, the mean absolute error in forecasting the maximum wind speed (minimum pressure) ranged from 26.5 km/h (7 hPa) to 33.7 km/h (11.7 hPa). Moreover, the highest BIAS in the intensity forecast was found in the first 48 h, suggesting that model initialization is the main driver of NTHF errors in the forecast maximum wind speed and the minimum central pressure of TCs in the North Atlantic Basin.","PeriodicalId":100061,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Meteorology","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74444632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1