气候不确定性:个人观点

M. McIntyre
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引用次数: 2

摘要

这篇文章对气候问题的各个方面作了简要的个人探讨。重点将放在一些最大的科学不确定性上,如对过去和现在气候的了解,包括可能在过去发生和可能在不久的将来发生的临界点。在目前的知识和理解状态下,这些临界点存在巨大的不确定性。首先,在不确定的数个世纪之后,可能会也可能不会出现多米诺骨牌式的继承或连锁反应,最终使气候系统进入始新世式的状态。届时海平面将比今天高出70米左右,地表风暴可能会达到人类从未经历过的极端程度。这种最坏的情况是高度推测性的。然而,没有办法完全有把握地排除它们。可信的评估超出了当前气候预测模型的范围。因此,在人类历史上,从未有过比这更有力的理由来应用预防原则。今天,即使从纯粹的财政角度来看,也毫无疑问,迫切而大幅度地减少温室气体排放的必要性远远超过了通过所谓的“抵消”所能做到的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Climate Uncertainties: A Personal View
This essay takes a brief personal look at aspects of the climate problem. The emphasis will be on some of the greatest scientific uncertainties, as suggested by what is known about past as well as present climates, including tipping points that likely occurred in the past and might occur in the near future. In the current state of knowledge and understanding, there is massive uncertainty about such tipping points. For one thing, there might or might not be a domino-like succession, or cascade, of tipping points that ultimately sends the climate system into an Eocene-like state, after an uncertain number of centuries. Sea levels would then be about 70 m higher than today, and surface storminess would likely reach extremes well outside human experience. Such worst-case scenarios are highly speculative. However, there is no way to rule them out with complete confidence. Credible assessments are outside the scope of current climate prediction models. So there has never in human history been a stronger case for applying the precautionary principle. Today there is no room for doubt—even from a purely financial perspective—about the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions urgently and drastically, far more than is possible through so-called “offsetting”.
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