African Transport Studies最新文献_第3页

Markov chain analysis on traffic law enforcements on accidents rate (case study: Akwa Ibom State) 交通执法对事故率的马尔可夫链分析（以阿夸伊博姆州为例）

African Transport Studies Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100063

J.J. Udo , Anderson Etika

{"title":"Markov chain analysis on traffic law enforcements on accidents rate (case study: Akwa Ibom State)","authors":"J.J. Udo , Anderson Etika","doi":"10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100063","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100063","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Akwa Ibom is one of Nigeria's very densely populated state and experiences high traffic volumes. Uyo, the state capital accounts for approximately 50 % of the state's reported traffic accidents, highlighting a significant issue with road safety. A Markov Chain Model was employed to assess the impact of traffic law enforcement on the rate of traffic accidents in Uyo. The analysis aimed to evaluate the effectiveness, suitability and functionality of traffic law enforcement in the Uyo metropolis, Akwa Ibom State. Ten years of accident and traffic violation data were collected from four selected routes in Uyo – Abak-Uyo Road, Ikot Ekpene-Uyo Road, Oron-Uyo Road and Nwaniba Road – through the Akwa Ibom State Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC). The findings revealed concerning patterns of unsafe behavior: On Abak-Uyo Road (AUR), drivers engaged in unsafe acts 62 times and unsafe conditions 22 times before experiencing fatalities or permanent disabilities. On Ikot Ekpene-Uyo Road (IUR), drivers committed unsafe acts 58 times and unsafe conditions 19 times prior to similar outcomes. On Oron-Uyo Road (OUR), hazardous behaviors occurred 52 times and risky conditions 15 times before leading to fatalities or permanent disabilities. On Nwaniba Road (NWR), the highest incidents were observed, with drivers engaging in risky activities 74 times and unsafe conditions 26 times before fatal or irreversible outcomes. The study concluded that traffic law enforcement in Uyo Local Government is currently inadequate and ineffective, necessitating substantial improvements to address the alarming rate of traffic accidents.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100058,"journal":{"name":"African Transport Studies","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100063"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145415137","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An open modeling framework to support the electrification of private transport in African cities: A case study of Addis Ababa 支持非洲城市私人交通电气化的开放式建模框架：以亚的斯亚贝巴为例

African Transport Studies Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100064

Jérémy Dumoulin , Dawit Habtu Gebremeskel , Kanchwodia Gashaw , Ingeborg Graabak , Noémie Jeannin , Alejandro Pena-Bello , Christophe Ballif , Nicolas Wyrsch

{"title":"An open modeling framework to support the electrification of private transport in African cities: A case study of Addis Ababa","authors":"Jérémy Dumoulin , Dawit Habtu Gebremeskel , Kanchwodia Gashaw , Ingeborg Graabak , Noémie Jeannin , Alejandro Pena-Bello , Christophe Ballif , Nicolas Wyrsch","doi":"10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100064","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100064","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The electrification of road transport, as the predominant mode of transportation in Africa, represents a great opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on costly fuel imports. However, it introduces major challenges for local energy infrastructures, including the deployment of charging stations and the impact on fragile electricity grids. Existing planning tools often depend on detailed mobility data that is unavailable in many African contexts, especially for privately owned passenger vehicles. To address this gap, we introduce a novel and open framework designed to support the electrification of private vehicles in data-scarce regions. We apply our approach to a case study of Addis Ababa, where we model the introduction of 100,000 electric vehicles, simulating their daily mobility patterns and charging needs. Our analysis estimates a daily charging demand of approximately 350 MWh and underscores the importance of the charging location on the spatial and temporal distribution of this demand. Notably, charging at public places can help smooth the charging demand throughout the day, mitigating peak charging loads on the electricity grid. We also estimate charging station requirements, finding that workplace charging requires approximately one charging point per three electric vehicles, while public charging requires only one per thirty. Finally, we demonstrate that photovoltaic energy can cover a substantial share of the charging needs, emphasizing the potential for renewable energy integration. Demonstrated through its application in Addis Ababa, this study provides a transferable framework for electric vehicle planning in other data-scarce cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100058,"journal":{"name":"African Transport Studies","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100064"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145319643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Improving Addis Ababa light railway transit using a combined Monte Carlo simulation and queuing theory model: Data and model dual-driven approach 基于蒙特卡罗模拟和排队理论模型的亚的斯亚贝巴轻轨交通改进：数据和模型双驱动方法

African Transport Studies Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100045

Tamene Taye Worku , Abraham Assefa Tsehayae

{"title":"Improving Addis Ababa light railway transit using a combined Monte Carlo simulation and queuing theory model: Data and model dual-driven approach","authors":"Tamene Taye Worku , Abraham Assefa Tsehayae","doi":"10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100045","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100045","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The primary issues affecting passenger satisfaction of AALRT customers are congestion and long waiting lines. Consequently, the main objective of this study was to develop a model aimed at improving AALRT service. To achieve this goal, the research first examined the congestion conditions of AALRT, followed by an analysis of the properties of the primary data. Next, a new model was developed using the integrated MCQT approach. Finally, this model and the AALRT service were validated through a marginal analysis focusing on service quality, profitability, and the reduction of environmental pollution. The study utilized primary data gathered from selected stations and secondary data obtained from the AALRT revenue office. The data analysis employed an MCQT model based on the probability distributions of boarding and alighting passengers across all corridors, directions, and design periods.</div><div>The findings indicate that the AALRT service experiences congestion in the west-east corridor while being underutilized in the north-south corridor. The probability distribution of passenger flows on the AALRT appears to follow uniform, binomial, or negative binomial distributions. In 2019, a maximum of 7 and 3 tramcars per hour was needed for both the west-east and north-south corridors respectively, with the potential to increase to a maximum of 8 double and 8 single tramcars per hour. Overall, the new model enhances service quality, profitability, and greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions in Addis Ababa's public transport system. In summary, the integrated MCQT effectively addresses the limitations of queuing theory, Markov chains, and other related theories.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100058,"journal":{"name":"African Transport Studies","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100045"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

“Promoting sustainable demand for electric vehicles”: unpacking Ghana's Electric Vehicle Policy vis-à-vis stated consumer preferences “促进对电动汽车的可持续需求”：拆开加纳的电动汽车政策与-à-vis陈述的消费者偏好

African Transport Studies Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100061

Ernest Agyemang

{"title":"“Promoting sustainable demand for electric vehicles”: unpacking Ghana's Electric Vehicle Policy vis-à-vis stated consumer preferences","authors":"Ernest Agyemang","doi":"10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100061","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100061","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The role of the transport sector in the increasing emissions of greenhouse gases is well recognized. Global climate mitigation strategies, inspired by the Paris Climate Accord, aim to promote green transportation, among other initiatives, to curtail emissions. African nations, including Ghana with its recently launched national electric vehicle policy, are positioned to encourage the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) across the continent. This paper investigates the factors influencing EV usage among potential adopters. Primary data were collected from a broader consumer preference survey involving 1500 participants from Accra (46.7 %), Kumasi (33.3 %), and Tamale (20 %). Descriptive statistics reveal that while only a small percentage of participants (26.8 %) intended to purchase an EV at the time of the survey –especially in the absence of government support –they demonstrated a heightened preference for EVs when favorable government incentives were present to make them more affordable and accessible. The findings further indicate a relatively stronger inclination towards EV ownership among females, environmentally conscious participants and current car owners. The paper discusses the implications of these findings and outlines strategies to enhance EV adoption in alignment with the country's national EV policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100058,"journal":{"name":"African Transport Studies","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100061"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144826702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Relationships between paratransit passenger satisfaction and driver labour conditions in Sub-Saharan Africa 撒哈拉以南非洲地区乘客满意度与司机劳动条件的关系

African Transport Studies Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100030

Roger Behrens , Mark Zuidgeest , Timothy Durant

{"title":"Relationships between paratransit passenger satisfaction and driver labour conditions in Sub-Saharan Africa","authors":"Roger Behrens , Mark Zuidgeest , Timothy Durant","doi":"10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100030","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100030","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Labour conditions for paratransit workers in Sub-Saharan African cities are typically exploitative, precarious, and stressful. These conditions inevitably contribute to dangerous driving behaviour and poor quality-of-service. The aim of this paper is to explore whether improving driver labour conditions can improve quality-of-service, from a passenger perspective. It investigates the nature and strength of relationships between paratransit driver labour relations and quality-of-service. Data from a (<em>n</em> = 7407) paratransit passenger survey, administered in five case cities (Accra, Cape Town, Freetown, Kumasi, and Maputo), takes the form of ordinal Likert scale ratings of paratransit service attributes. Descriptive statistical analysis found that drivers remunerated through a daily ‘target’ system without representation in collective industry organisations, provide less satisfactory services than drivers remunerated through variations of ‘commission’ and part-salary systems with collective representation. An ordinal logistic regression model estimated that the odds of passengers being more satisfied (instead of very dissatisfied) with the overall quality-of-service provided by a driver remunerated under a part-salary and ‘commission’ system, are 3.99 and 2.11 times that of service provided by driver remunerated under a ‘target system’, respectively. It is concluded that better treated drivers provide better quality services. Paratransit improvement strategies should therefore include interventions that improve vehicle crew working conditions and labour relations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100058,"journal":{"name":"African Transport Studies","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100030"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143535120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Examining the factors associated with the non-use of seatbelts among drivers and passengers in Ghana 调查加纳司机和乘客不使用安全带的相关因素

African Transport Studies Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100062

William Kwaasi Amanor , Carlos Otoo-Kwofie , Eric Awere , Emma Mansa Agyeiwaa

{"title":"Examining the factors associated with the non-use of seatbelts among drivers and passengers in Ghana","authors":"William Kwaasi Amanor , Carlos Otoo-Kwofie , Eric Awere , Emma Mansa Agyeiwaa","doi":"10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100062","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100062","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Seatbelts stand out as one of the most effective safeguards designed to prevent severe injuries to individuals in vehicular crashes. Nevertheless, a dearth of information exists regarding the factors associated with the non-use of seatbelts in Ghana. Hence, this study investigates the factors that influence the non-use of seatbelts among drivers and passengers in Ghana. A cross-sectional study gathered information from 816 individuals, comprising 273 drivers and 543 passengers. The analysis incorporated descriptive statistics, cross tabulation and Chi-square tests. The research revealed that 60.8 % of drivers and 36.7 % of passengers consistently fasten their seatbelts upon getting into a vehicle. The study also unveiled that several factors contribute to the non-use of seatbelts among drivers, including discomfort, forgetfulness, lack of seatbelt availability, faulty seatbelts, short travel distances, absence of law enforcement, rebellious or libertarian attitudes, vehicle type, feeling odd, gender, and age. Similarly, among passengers, factors such as discomfort, forgetfulness, seatbelt unavailability, short travel distances, lax law enforcement, rebellious or libertarian attitudes, peer pressure, vehicle type, feeling odd, gender, age, and education were identified as influencing non-seatbelt use. This study offers valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders to develop and implement data-driven strategies that promote seatbelt use, ultimately reducing traffic-related injuries and fatalities in Ghana.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100058,"journal":{"name":"African Transport Studies","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100062"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144826701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Vulnerable road users through safe systems lenses? Perspectives from transport professionals in Ghana on pedestrians and motorcyclists 通过安全系统镜头帮助弱势道路使用者？加纳交通专业人员对行人和摩托车手的看法

African Transport Studies Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100025

William Agyemang , Steven Jones , Emmanuel Kofi Adanu , Jun Liu , Xinwu Qian

{"title":"Vulnerable road users through safe systems lenses? Perspectives from transport professionals in Ghana on pedestrians and motorcyclists","authors":"William Agyemang , Steven Jones , Emmanuel Kofi Adanu , Jun Liu , Xinwu Qian","doi":"10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100025","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100025","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The problem of road traffic crashes is more acute in low- and middle-income countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), which exhibits the worst regional death rates per population in the world. Vulnerable road users (VRUs) constitute a significant proportion of road traffic casualties across the region. The provision of a safe transport system to address this problem is crucial to the socio-economic development of SSA. This study aimed to assess the level of knowledge of transport professionals in Ghana relating to the complex safety issues of VRUs within the context of the <em>Safe Systems</em> approach and to explore how the local context could guide its implementation. The study used an online survey to collect relevant information from transport professionals on their understanding of the <em>Safe Systems</em> approach and used the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to prioritize countermeasures for two types of VRUs: pedestrians and motorcyclists. The findings from the study revealed that for pedestrians, transport professionals were more concerned with the enforcement of pedestrian laws by the law enforcement agencies followed by outreach and educational programs for the pedestrians. Whereas for motorcyclists, enforcement of motorcyclist laws and education were priority countermeasures proposed by the transport professionals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100058,"journal":{"name":"African Transport Studies","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100025"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143097865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Lessons in traffic: Nairobi's school term congestion and equity challenges 交通方面的教训：内罗毕的学期拥堵和公平挑战

African Transport Studies Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100044

Charles R.S. Hatfield , Anna Kustar , Marcel Reinmuth , Constant Cap , Agraw Ali Beshir , Jacqueline M. Klopp , Alexander Zipf , James Rising , Thet Hein Tun

{"title":"Lessons in traffic: Nairobi's school term congestion and equity challenges","authors":"Charles R.S. Hatfield , Anna Kustar , Marcel Reinmuth , Constant Cap , Agraw Ali Beshir , Jacqueline M. Klopp , Alexander Zipf , James Rising , Thet Hein Tun","doi":"10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100044","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100044","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The specific needs of children – and the impacts of road design, traffic, and congestion on them – tend to be poorly addressed in transport planning, including in cities like Nairobi. While a growing body of research on the geography of education in African cities has delved into aspects of school travel, equity, and their effects on learning, the influence of school sessions, which induces unique trip dynamics, remains largely unexplored. This paper aims to address this gap through a data-driven analysis of traffic effects when schools are in session, compared to holidays in Nairobi. We leverage real-time road speed information from the publicly available Uber Movement data for 2019 to model congestion spatially and temporally. We achieve this by modeling travel times to the central business district (CBD) from across the city for both school term and holiday periods, as well as by measuring changes in mean daily and hourly road speeds across different road types between the two periods. Through this analysis, we found that mean road speeds across the city were statistically significantly lower during the school term than during the holiday period with secondary roads overrepresented among the most congested roads in the city. There was also high positive spatial autocorrelation for changes in travel times to the CBD across the city with some clusters experiencing significant increases in travel times while others experienced significant decreases. The high degree of clustering, decreased road speeds, and overburdening of specific road types suggests potential equity and economic impacts of congestion, which may be closely connected to inadequate land use and planning regarding children's education and school travel. Overall, this suggests that better planning for schools could help reduce congestion, while improving child health and well-being.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100058,"journal":{"name":"African Transport Studies","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100044"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143947269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Deep-learning based recognition on paved road shoulder for the Namibia B2 highway 基于深度学习的纳米比亚B2高速公路铺装路肩识别

African Transport Studies Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100028

Cailis Bullard , Marco Knipfer , Erik Johnson , Abhay Lidbe , Steven Jones

{"title":"Deep-learning based recognition on paved road shoulder for the Namibia B2 highway","authors":"Cailis Bullard , Marco Knipfer , Erik Johnson , Abhay Lidbe , Steven Jones","doi":"10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100028","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100028","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The number of road crash-related deaths worldwide has continued to steadily grow, reaching 1.35 million deaths every year. Low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) bear a disproportionately high number of these deaths in relation to both their population size and the total number of in-use vehicles. One of the daunting challenges facing LMICs is the lack of road safety features and built environment and their required maintenance, which can be attributed to the rising road safety concerns. Namibia, in Sub-Saharan Africa is no exception. Routine road safety audits (RSA) can aid in locating areas of the road network that need maintenance and/or require the installation of safety features. However, constrained by the limited resources for road safety initiatives, RSA are rarely performed in Namibia and LMICs. Therefore, this study demonstrates a low-cost open-source technique that can be fairly used as a supplementary tool to ease the practice of RSA in LMICs. The study presents a Deep-learning approach for classification of the presence of road shoulder and its width on a small dataset from the Highway B2 in Namibia using open access Google Street View images. Results indicate that road shoulder width can clearly be classified with open-source software, readily available models, and open access data. Results from this study have the potential to lower the overall cost of RSA in LMICs and allow for the prudent allocation of limited transportation-related funding that can create a positive impact on road safety problems in these countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100058,"journal":{"name":"African Transport Studies","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100028"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143097757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Exploring the interplay of ecological footprints, carbon footprint, urbanization, air freight transport, foreign direct investment, and industrialization in North Africa 探讨北非地区生态足迹、碳足迹、城市化、航空货运、外国直接投资和工业化的相互作用

African Transport Studies Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100060

Jabeur Salhi , Fedy Ouni , Mohamed Dhibi

{"title":"Exploring the interplay of ecological footprints, carbon footprint, urbanization, air freight transport, foreign direct investment, and industrialization in North Africa","authors":"Jabeur Salhi , Fedy Ouni , Mohamed Dhibi","doi":"10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100060","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aftran.2025.100060","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the environmental repercussions of urbanization, industrialization, air freight transport, and foreign direct investment (FDI) on the ecological footprint and CO₂ emissions in four North African countries: Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia, over the period from 1990 to 2018. The impetus for this research is rooted in the region's escalating environmental vulnerability, characterized by increasing pollution levels, rapid urbanization, and a substantial reliance on fossil fuels, rendering the pursuit of sustainable development strategies imperative. To fulfill these objectives, two extended models based on the STIRPAT framework were formulated. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach is employed to analyze both short- and long-term dynamics. Granger causality tests utilizing the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and robustness assessments employing Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) estimators are integral to the analysis. The empirical findings indicate that air freight transport, industrialization, and urbanization significantly contribute to the escalation of the ecological footprint and CO₂ emissions, although the effects differ across the countries studied. Conversely, the impact of FDI is heterogeneous, largely contingent upon its sectoral orientation. These findings imply that public policies in North Africa should focus on promoting environmentally sustainable industrial practices, enhancing urban planning, and channeling FDI towards sustainable sectors. Additionally, regional collaboration and investment in cleaner transportation infrastructure and technological innovation could mitigate environmental degradation while facilitating economic growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100058,"journal":{"name":"African Transport Studies","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100060"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144757320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0