Energy nexus最新文献

{"title":"Water-energy nexus: Integrating hydrochemical characterization and life cycle assessment for a holistic profile of agricultural groundwater sustainability","authors":"Naseem Akhtar ,&nbsp;Syahidah Akmal Muhammad ,&nbsp;Muhammad Izzuddin Syakir ,&nbsp;Hamza Mohamed Flafel ,&nbsp;Pahmi Husain ,&nbsp;Sulgiye Park ,&nbsp;Faisal M. Alfaisal ,&nbsp;Shamshad Alam","doi":"10.1016/j.nexus.2025.100616","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nexus.2025.100616","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sustainable groundwater management is critically hampered by a disconnect between water quality assessment and environmental impact (EI) of its extraction infrastructure, particularly at the micro-level. This study applied a novel micro-nexus lens to bridge this gap by developing a holistic sustainability profile for a single agricultural pumping well in Labu Kubong, Malaysia. The objectives were outlined as follows: (i) to characterize hydrochemical properties and evaluate groundwater suitability for paddy irrigation utilizing Piper, Gibbs, Wilcox, and United States Salinity Laboratory (USSL) diagrams; (ii) to pinpoint dominant environmental hotspots from raw materials and energy consumption using a cradle-to-gate Life Cycle Assessment (LCA); (iii) to validate LCA reliability with Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis; and (iv) to synthesize the hydrochemical and LCA results into a holistic sustainability balance sheet (HSBS). The Piper diagram results indicated calcium-magnesium-bicarbonate-type water, with rock weathering identified as the predominant geochemical process by the Gibbs diagram. The groundwater was classified as excellent for irrigation (C2-S1 class) by Wilcox and USSL diagrams. Counter-intuitively, LCA revealed that dominant EI originated not from operational energy consumption (1.65 %) but from the embodied footprint of the raw materials from groundwater extraction infrastructure. Raw material production, particularly polyethylene terephthalate (61.6 %), copper for the submersible pump (14.8 %), gravel packing (4.51 %), steel (3.5 %), copper wire for the electrical cable (2.05 %), polyvinyl chloride (1.12 %), and high-density polyethylene (0.0062 %), were the primary contributors. This integrated micro-nexus paradigm offers HSBS, highlighting a significant paradox whereby intrinsic groundwater suitability for paddy agriculture and unsuitability for drinking without treatment due to elevated concentrations of iron (1.71 mg/L), manganese (0.173 mg/L), and arsenic (0.04 mg/L) occur alongside significant extrinsic EI resulting from its extraction infrastructure. This HSBS provides policymakers a crucial tool for integrated management decisions, enabling balanced consideration of usability, operational risk, and life cycle impacts to support truly sustainable groundwater management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":93548,"journal":{"name":"Energy nexus","volume":"21 ","pages":"Article 100616"},"PeriodicalIF":9.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145747040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Synthesizing a novel precipitant for lithium recovery from aqueous solutions via Williamson’s reaction","authors":"Rabia Khatoon ,&nbsp;Yeek-Chia Ho ,&nbsp;Cecilia Devi Wilfred ,&nbsp;Khairulazhar Jumbri ,&nbsp;Dong Suk Han","doi":"10.1016/j.nexus.2026.100665","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nexus.2026.100665","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The recovery of lithium from aqueous solutions presents significant opportunities for enhancing sustainable recovery methods in the oil and gas industries. This study focused on the synthesis of a novel precipitant, 2-(4-(3-ethylpentan-3-yl) phenoxy) acetic acid (PAAA), to improve lithium recovery. PAAA was synthesized via Williamson's reaction, with p‑tert-octyl phenoxyacetic acid (POAA) synthesized for comparative analysis. Optimization studies were conducted using Response Surface Methodology (RSM), targeting lithium recovery as the response variable. The results demonstrated that PAAA was successfully synthesized under optimal conditions: a pH of 12, a reaction time of 5 h, a temperature of 50 °C, and a molar dosage of amyl phenol of 0.06. The structures of PAAA and POAA were validated using NMR and FTIR spectroscopy, confirming <em>C</em> = <em>O</em> stretching frequencies at 1700 cm⁻¹ and 1730 cm⁻¹, respectively. Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) revealed that the rod-like shape of PAAA enhances lithium-ligand complex formation and precipitation. The study also examined various operating parameters for lithium recovery through the extraction-precipitation method, including reaction pH, reaction time, saponification rates, and molar ratios. A maximum lithium recovery of 84% was achieved under optimal conditions: pH 9, saponification at 85%, a reaction time of 40 min, and a molar ratio of PAAA to Li of 3. These findings highlight the potential of PAAA as an effective precipitant for lithium recovery in aqueous environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":93548,"journal":{"name":"Energy nexus","volume":"21 ","pages":"Article 100665"},"PeriodicalIF":9.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146188433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mitigating water evaporation and enhancing renewable energy with floating photovoltaic systems: An integrated approach to resource sustainability","authors":"Ali Mahmoudi Aznaveh,&nbsp;Hossein Yousefi,&nbsp;Fatemeh Razi Astaraei","doi":"10.1016/j.nexus.2026.100683","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nexus.2026.100683","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Floating Photovoltaic (FPV) systems offer a new solution for managing water resources and producing sustainable energy. This study evaluates the impact of FPV technology on reducing water evaporation at five key dams supplying Tehran and nearby areas. Analysis of evaporation data and climatic conditions in the region from 1994 to 2023 showed that the cumulative evaporation during this period reached 2356.37 millimeters, and the SPEI index confirms a trend of increasing drought during this time. Using the FAO Penman-Monteith method, the 2023 evaporation rates were calculated, showing Taleghan Dam with the highest evaporation loss at 19,591,093 cubic meters and Mamlu Dam with the lowest at 7117,110 cubic meters. The study explored FPV deployment at 5%, 10%, and 20% coverage for each dam. Estimates indicate that with 80 percent FPV efficiency, evaporation reduction could be significant, with Taleghan Dam’s losses decreasing to 16,456,518 cubic meters and Mamlu Dam’s losses decreasing to 5978,372 cubic meters under 20 percent coverage. Furthermore, the potential for electricity generation was assessed, revealing that 10 percent FPV coverage of Latyan and Amir Kabir Dams could generate 72,064 MWh and 80,180 MWh of energy, respectively, while reducing CO₂ emissions by over 44,000 tons at each site. The economic analysis shows that FPV systems improve environmental sustainability by cutting evaporation and greenhouse gas emissions, while also supporting the economic feasibility of water and energy projects. This study underscores the importance of FPV technology in promoting integrated water conservation and renewable energy solutions amid climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":93548,"journal":{"name":"Energy nexus","volume":"21 ","pages":"Article 100683"},"PeriodicalIF":9.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146188432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Catalytic co-pyrolysis of teak wood sawdust and polystyrene: Effect of process parameters on yield and properties of pyrolysis oil","authors":"Tanushka Florence Panicker,&nbsp;Ranjeet Kumar Mishra","doi":"10.1016/j.nexus.2026.100668","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nexus.2026.100668","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The present study explores the thermo-catalytic co-pyrolysis of waste teak wood sawdust (TWS) and polystyrene (PS) using a semi-batch reactor. The experiments were performed at varying temperatures (450-550 °C), biomass-to-plastic ratios (10-50 wt.%), and catalyst loadings (5-20 wt.% of CaO and MgO). The physicochemical analysis of TWS and PS revealed HHV values of 19.50 and 43.18 MJ kg^-1, and oxygen contents of 45.40% and 0.43%, respectively. TGA results showed major biomass degradation occurring between 150-550 °C, while the FTIR analysis identified key functional groups, including C-H, C=C, -OH, and C=O. Thermal pyrolysis at 500 °C produced a 46.05% liquid yield, while the addition of 30 wt.% PS increased yield by 5.53%. The resultant pyrolytic oil exhibited an improved carbon content (81.37%) and a higher heating value (37.85 MJ kg^-1). The GC-MS analysis demonstrated a 59.69% increase in hydrocarbon yield at 30 wt.% PS while acids and ketones reduced by 4.58% and 9.74%, respectively. The addition of CaO (5 wt.%) and MgO (10 wt.%) enhanced the deoxygenation, aromatisation, and cracking reactions, resulting in selectivity towards aromatic hydrocarbons. The catalytic pyrolytic oil yielded 62% total hydrocarbons, with the aromatic fraction accounting for 56% of the total hydrocarbons. The NMR study further confirmed the shifting of the hydrogen from oxygen-containing compounds towards aromatic structures. Furthermore, blending PS at a dynamic ratio decreased the char yield, whereas adding catalysts increased it. The catalytic char showed increased ash content and demonstrated alkaline pH. Overall, the thermo-catalytic co-pyrolysis has significant potential to contribute to the circular economy by converting waste into renewable fuels and chemicals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":93548,"journal":{"name":"Energy nexus","volume":"21 ","pages":"Article 100668"},"PeriodicalIF":9.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146188345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Upcycling autoclaved aerated concrete into sustainable and energy-efficient geopolymers with improved structural attributes","authors":"Mohammad Reza Hanafi ,&nbsp;Hamed Rahimpour ,&nbsp;Zohre Babai Golsefidi ,&nbsp;Sahar Zinatloo-Ajabshir ,&nbsp;Somayeh Mollaei ,&nbsp;Faramarz Moodi ,&nbsp;Hamid Zarrabi ,&nbsp;Ahmad Fahmi","doi":"10.1016/j.nexus.2026.100685","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nexus.2026.100685","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study aims to achieve the complete recycling of post-demolition autoclaved aerated concrete (AAC) and to develop sustainable, energy-efficient, and high-performance geopolymer construction materials. Recycled AAC powder with different particle sizes was used as the aluminosilicate precursor and mixed with alkaline activators consisting of water glass and sodium hydroxide at concentrations of 4, 8, 12, and 16 mol. The effects of alkaline concentration, activator ratio, curing temperature, and precursor particle size on the mechanical properties and bulk density of the synthesized geopolymer materials were systematically evaluated. Increasing sodium hydroxide concentration and the water glass-to-sodium hydroxide ratio enhanced mechanical strength, while higher curing temperatures decreased bulk density. Under optimal conditions (12 molar sodium hydroxide, activator ratio of 2, curing at 85 °C, and a particle size of 150 µm), the compressive, tensile, and flexural strengths reached 27.03, 3.51, and 2.73 MPa, respectively. Water absorption after 24 h was measured at 11.9 wt.%, and chemical/microstructural analyses revealed a dense and homogeneous matrix consistent with complete geopolymerization. A life cycle assessment demonstrated an 86% reduction in climate-change impact, along with lower resource consumption, water use, and toxicity compared to ordinary Portland cement, confirming the environmental advantages of the proposed approach. Overall, the findings demonstrate that post-demolition AAC can be fully upcycled into structurally efficient and environmentally responsible geopolymer materials, with strong potential for application in sustainable construction products including high-performance precast elements and masonry units.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":93548,"journal":{"name":"Energy nexus","volume":"21 ","pages":"Article 100685"},"PeriodicalIF":9.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146188899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shifting from mid-season and double-season rice to ratoon rice improves the sustainability of rice production systems","authors":"Shuang Cheng,&nbsp;Yalan Ji,&nbsp;Zhong Li,&nbsp;Youzun Xu,&nbsp;Yongjin Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.nexus.2026.100684","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nexus.2026.100684","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rising demand for food, climate change, energy shortages, and increasing production costs have exerted tremendous pressure on rice production in China. Exploring suitable rice cropping systems is crucial for promoting sustainable rice production. This study comprehensively compared three major rice cropping systems: middle-season rice (MR), ratoon rice (RR), and double-season rice (DR), focusing on grain yield, net ecosystem economic budget (NEEB), environmental benefits, and energy efficiency. The results indicated that the annual average yield of RR was 13.1 t ha⁻¹, which was 10.4%–12.4% lower than that of DR but 36.3%–36.6% higher than that of MR. The lower annual yield of RR relative to DR was mainly attributable to its lower ratoon season yield compared to the late rice yield in DR. Further increasing the ratoon season yield is key for RR to exceed the yield of DR. The global warming potential (GWP) of the three rice cropping systems ranged from 12,334.4 to 18,421.4 kg CO₂ -eq·ha⁻¹. Compared with DR, the GWP of RR and MR decreased by 21.7% and 33.0%, respectively. RR achieved the highest NEEB (13,708.7 CNY·ha⁻¹), which was 25.0%-28.6% higher than DR and 18.2%-25.7% higher than MR, respectively. This superior performance was mainly attributed to RR's significantly high economic benefit, as well as its moderate ecological costs, by improving resource production efficiency. Furthermore, RR exhibited the highest energy use efficiency (3.4), exceeding MR by 6.3% and DR by 47.8%, primarily due to its superior energy output relative to MR (1926,435 MJ ha⁻¹ vs 1411,935 MJ ha⁻¹) and reduced energy inputs compared to DR (57,140 MJ ha⁻¹ vs 95,474 MJ ha⁻¹). These results demonstrate that RR represents a sustainable rice cropping system capable of balancing grain yield, NEEB, environmental benefits, and energy efficiency. This system is suitable for promotion in southern China where thermal resources are insufficient for DR but surplus for MR, as well as in regions transitioning from DR to MR, thereby enhancing the sustainability of rice production in China. Adopting high-ratooning varieties and optimizing cultivation techniques during the ratoon season may further enhance the overall performance of this system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":93548,"journal":{"name":"Energy nexus","volume":"21 ","pages":"Article 100684"},"PeriodicalIF":9.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146188897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Hybrid Renewable Microgrid Optimization for Cost Reduction, Emission Mitigation, and Net-Metering Grid-Connected Stability in University Student Residences for Developing Countries","authors":"Md. Feroz Ali ,&nbsp;Md. Mahadi Hasan Rony ,&nbsp;Diganto Biswas ,&nbsp;Md. Esmay Azam ,&nbsp;Sk․ A. Shezan ,&nbsp;Innocent Kamwa","doi":"10.1016/j.nexus.2026.100649","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nexus.2026.100649","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increasing energy demand of institutional facilities, coupled with rising electricity costs and emission concerns, necessitates the development of efficient and sustainable hybrid renewable energy systems. Although numerous studies have investigated hybrid microgrids, limited attention has been given to campus-scale systems that integrate multiple renewable sources with grid-connected net-metering and practical operational considerations. This study aims to design and optimize a grid-connected hybrid renewable microgrid for a university student residence using real load data. The proposed system integrates photovoltaic, wind, biomass-based generation, battery energy storage, and utility grid support, and is analyzed using HOMER Pro to evaluate techno-economic performance, renewable penetration, and emission reduction. The optimized configuration achieves a daily energy demand of 390.56 kWh with a peak load of 53.4 kW, resulting in a significantly reduced net present cost and cost of energy, along with substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions compared to the base case. Sensitivity and comparative analyses further demonstrate the robustness of the proposed system under varying resource and economic conditions. The findings confirm that multi-source hybrid microgrids with net-metering can provide a cost-effective and environmentally sustainable energy solution for campus-scale applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":93548,"journal":{"name":"Energy nexus","volume":"21 ","pages":"Article 100649"},"PeriodicalIF":9.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147396210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling power and workforce demand in French field agriculture highlights variability, fleet redundancy, and magnitude comparable to renewable electricity generation","authors":"Cyprien Drommi,&nbsp;Petros Chatzimpiros","doi":"10.1016/j.nexus.2026.100654","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nexus.2026.100654","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mechanized agriculture relies heavily on fossil fuels for field operations, while facing decarbonization and environmental sustainability challenges. Phasing out fossil fuels requires alternative energy supply that can provide sufficient power to perform field tasks. However, the variability of agricultural power demand remains unexplored, yet it is crucial for anticipating energy transition to renewable flows. Here, we fill this gap by modeling on-field power demand distribution over a full cropping season based on production practices from public surveys and using national-scale French agriculture as a case study. Results show high variability in power demand, ranging from below 5 to above 12 GW during autumn tillage. Compared to total installed engine power, the load factor of tractors and combine-harvesters peaks at about 18 % and 23 % respectively. This indicates substantial fleet redundancy, which is in part necessary to accommodate unpredictability in field working conditions. By assessing scenarios of agroecological practices, we show that no-till practices help reduce peak power demand, whereas organic practices result in a marginal power demand increase. In parallel, we assess workforce requirement for field driving of machinery. This requirement peaks simultaneously with power demand at one-third of total workers and accounts for 12 % of annual working time in agriculture. Our findings highlight trade-offs between farming system organization, practices and on-field power demand, revealing that the latter is currently comparable in scale to renewable (wind and solar) power generation in France. The results underscore the need to integrate power demand analysis of fossil-fueled activities into energy transition policies and planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":93548,"journal":{"name":"Energy nexus","volume":"21 ","pages":"Article 100654"},"PeriodicalIF":9.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147396228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-objective optimisation of a seawater reverse osmosis desalination system driven by vertical axis wind turbines: Technical, economic, and environmental perspectives","authors":"Khalid M. Alzahrani ,&nbsp;Maria Fernanda Rojas-Michaga ,&nbsp;Lin Ma ,&nbsp;Derek Ingham ,&nbsp;Mohamed Pourkashanian","doi":"10.1016/j.nexus.2026.100686","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nexus.2026.100686","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Previous studies demonstrated the feasibility of vertical axis wind turbine (VAWT)-driven reverse osmosis (RO) units integrated with compressed air energy storage (CAES) to manage renewable energy intermittency. However, an integrated multi-objective strategy for optimal configuration was missing. This study addresses this gap by developing and applying a novel integrated framework coupling multi-objective optimisation with life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate technical, economic, and environmental performance. The system was modelled using six design variables, exploring 118,800 configurations to balance annual water production, levelised cost of water (LCOW), and global warming potential (GWP). Machine learning techniques were used to develop surrogate models to identify Pareto-optimal solutions, while a TOPSIS analysis selected four scenarios representing diverse stakeholder priorities. Results revealed that the sizing and number of VAWTs are the dominant factors influencing both LCOW and GWP. The optimisation yielded an LCOW-prioritised scenario that achieved a cost of 1.39 US$/m³, while the GWP-prioritised scenario reached a footprint of 0.70 kg CO₂eq/m³. This work provides a novel methodology for the simultaneous techno-economic and environmental design of off-grid water infrastructure, establishing optimal strategies for renewable desalination to address global water scarcity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":93548,"journal":{"name":"Energy nexus","volume":"21 ","pages":"Article 100686"},"PeriodicalIF":9.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147396690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multivariate time series energy forecasting using a hybrid neural-SVM ensemble model: A data-driven approach for energy management in Bangladesh","authors":"Mohammad Mynul Islam Mahin,&nbsp;Md Jawad Bin Rouf,&nbsp;Shah Murtoza Morshed,&nbsp;Sheak Salman,&nbsp;Md Shihab Shakur,&nbsp;Mohammad Morshed,&nbsp;Md. Parvez","doi":"10.1016/j.nexus.2026.100641","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nexus.2026.100641","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Energy forecasting of generation, demand, sources, and prices over short-time horizons is necessary for optimization of energy management. Given the increased use of developing technologies and reliance on renewable energy sources, strategic planning, management, and operational decision-making depend on accuracy and reliability of forecasting system. Complex interconnections reside among energy features in modern day power systems. Developing nations such as Bangladesh encounter challenges, including insufficient advanced tools for power planning and policy development. Previous studies have often focused on forecasting a single energy variable, like load or demand, with little attention on multiple energy parameters, and the interrelations among them. This study introduces a Hybrid Neural-SVM Ensemble (HNSE) model to simultaneously forecast day-ahead daily total energy generation, non-renewable energy generation, fuel cost, and evening peak demand of national grid of Bangladesh. Utilizing the Power Grid Company of Bangladesh’s (PGCB) data, HNSE went through processing and hyperparameter optimization. Performance evaluation based on five statistical indices demonstrated the model's predictive capabilities, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.9744, and a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.0291. Additionally, the study utilizes the Kernel-based Changepoint Detection (KernelCPD) algorithm to detect structural shifts in residuals, and two explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods, Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), for feature contribution analysis to provide local and global interpretability. The aim is to offer actionable guidance for policymakers and stakeholders in mitigating current energy crises in Bangladesh through strategic decision-making and support the development of sustainable energy policies in emerging economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":93548,"journal":{"name":"Energy nexus","volume":"21 ","pages":"Article 100641"},"PeriodicalIF":9.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145977276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}