Earth system dynamics : ESD最新文献

{"title":"Agricultural management effects on mean and extreme temperature trends","authors":"Aine M. Gormley-Gallagher, S. Sterl, A. Hirsch, S. Seneviratne, E. Davin, W. Thiery","doi":"10.5194/esd-13-419-2022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-419-2022","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Understanding and quantifying land management impacts on local climate is\u0000important for distinguishing between the effects of land management and\u0000large-scale climate forcings. This study for the first time explicitly\u0000considers the radiative forcing resulting from realistic land management and\u0000offers new insights into the local land surface response to land management.\u0000Regression-based trend analysis is applied to observations and present-day\u0000ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.2.2 to assess the impact of irrigation and conservation agriculture (CA)\u0000on warming trends using an approach that is less sensitive to temperature\u0000extremes. At the regional scale, an irrigation- and CA-induced acceleration\u0000of the annual mean near-surface air temperature (T2m) warming trends\u0000and the annual maximum daytime temperature (TXx) warming trends were\u0000evident. Estimation of the impact of irrigation and CA on the spatial\u0000average of the warming trends indicated that irrigation and CA have a pulse\u0000cooling effect on T2m and TXx, after which the warming trends increase\u0000at a greater rate than the control simulations. This differed at the local\u0000(subgrid) scale under irrigation where surface temperature cooling and the\u0000dampening of warming trends were both evident. As the local surface warming\u0000trends, in contrast to regional trends, do not account for atmospheric\u0000(water vapour) feedbacks, their dampening confirms the importance of\u0000atmospheric feedbacks (water vapour forcing) in explaining the enhanced\u0000regional trends. At the land surface, the positive radiative forcing signal\u0000arising from enhanced atmospheric water vapour is too weak to offset the\u0000local cooling from the irrigation-induced increase in the evaporative\u0000fraction. Our results underline that agricultural management has complex and non-negligible impacts on the local climate and highlight the need to\u0000evaluate the representation of land management in global climate models\u0000using climate models of higher resolution.","PeriodicalId":92775,"journal":{"name":"Earth system dynamics : ESD","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43281047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The biogeophysical effects of idealized land cover and land management changes in Earth System Models","authors":"Steven De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, I. Manola, D. Coumou, E. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Q. Lejeune, J. Pongratz, C. Schleussner, S. Seneviratne, W. Thiery","doi":"10.5194/esd-2022-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-5","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Land cover and land management change (LCLMC) has been highlighted for its critical role in mitigation scenarios, both in terms of global mitigation and local adaptation. Yet, the climate effect of individual LCLMC options, their dependence on the background climate and the local vs. non-local responses are still poorly understood across different Earth System Models (ESMs). Here we simulate the climatic effects of LCLMC using three state-of-the-art ESMs, including the Community Earth System Model (CESM), the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and the European Consortium Earth System Model (EC-EARTH). We assess the LCLMC effects using four idealized experiments: (i) a fully afforested world, (ii) a world fully covered by cropland, (ii) a fully afforested world with extensive wood harvesting, and (iv) a full cropland world with extensive irrigation. In these idealized sensitivity experiments, performed under present-day climate conditions, the effects of the different LCLMC strategies represent an upper bound for the potential of global mitigation and local adaptation. To disentangle the local and non-local effects from the LCLMC, a checkerboard-like LCLMC perturbation, i.e., alternating grid boxes with and without LCLMC, is applied. The local effects of deforestation on surface temperature are largely consistent across the ESMs and the observations, with a cooling in boreal latitudes and a warming in the tropics. However, the energy balance components driving the change in surface temperature show less consistency across the ESMs and the observations. Additionally, some biases exist in specific ESMs, such as a strong albedo response in CESM mid-latitudes and a soil thawing driven warming in boreal latitudes in EC-EARTH. The non-local effects on surface temperature are broadly consistent across ESMs for afforestation, though larger model uncertainty exists for cropland expansion. Irrigation clearly induces a cooling effect, however; the ESMs disagree whether these are mainly local or non-local effects. Wood harvesting is found to have no discernible biogeophysical effects on climate. Our results overall underline the potential of ensemble simulations to inform decision making regarding future climate consequences of land-based mitigation and adaptation strategies.\u0000","PeriodicalId":92775,"journal":{"name":"Earth system dynamics : ESD","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47301705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating the lateral transfer of organic carbon through the European river network using a land surface model","authors":"Haicheng Zhang, R. Lauerwald, P. Régnier, P. Ciais, K. Van Oost, V. Naipal, B. Guenet, Wenping Yuan","doi":"10.5194/esd-2022-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-4","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Lateral carbon transport from soils to the ocean through rivers has been acknowledged as a key component of global carbon cycle, but is still neglected in most global land surface models (LSMs). Fluvial transport of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and CO2 has been implemented in the ORCHIDEE LSM, while erosion-induced delivery of sediment and particulate organic carbon (POC) from land to river was implemented in another version of the model. Based on these two developments, we take the final step towards the full representation of biospheric carbon transport through the land-river continuum. The newly developed model, called ORCHIDEE-Clateral, simulates the complete lateral transport of water, sediment, POC, DOC and CO2 from land to sea through the river network, the deposition of sediment and POC in the river channel and floodplains, and the decomposition of POC and DOC in transit. We parameterized and evaluated ORCHIDEE-Clateral using observation data in Europe. The model satisfactorily reproduces the observed riverine discharges of water and sediment, bankfull flows and sediment delivery rate from land to river, as well as the observed concentrations of organic carbon in rivers. Application of ORCHIDEE-Clateral for Europe reveals that the lateral carbon transfer affects land carbon dynamics in multiple ways and omission of this process in LSMs may result in significant biases in the simulated regional land carbon budgets. Overall, this study presents a useful tool for simulating large scale lateral carbon transfer and for predicting the feedbacks between lateral carbon transfer and future climate and land use changes.\u0000","PeriodicalId":92775,"journal":{"name":"Earth system dynamics : ESD","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42883782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Weakened impact of the Atlantic Niño on the future equatorial Atlantic and Guinea Coast rainfall","authors":"K. Worou, H. Goosse, T. Fichefet, F. Kucharski","doi":"10.5194/esd-13-231-2022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The Guinea Coast is the southern part of the West African continent. Its summer rainfall variability mostly occurs on interannual timescales and is highly influenced by the sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the eastern equatorial Atlantic, which is the centre of action of the Atlantic Niño mode. Using both historical and scenario (SSP5–8.5) simulations from 31 general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we first show that these models present a wet bias during boreal summer. This bias is associated with overly high mean boreal summer SSTs in the eastern equatorial and south Atlantic regions. Next, we analyse the near-term, mid-term and long-term changes of the Atlantic Niño relative to the present-day situation, in a climate with a high anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. We find a gradual decrease in the equatorial Atlantic SST anomalies associated with the Atlantic Niño in the future. This result reflects a possible reduction of the Atlantic Niño variability in the future due to a weakening of the Bjerknes feedback over the equatorial Atlantic. In a warmer climate, an anomalous higher sea level pressure in the western equatorial Atlantic relative to the eastern equatorial Atlantic weakens the climatological trade winds over the equatorial Atlantic. As a result, the eastern equatorial Atlantic thermocline is deeper and responds less to the Atlantic Niño events. Among the models that simulate a realistic rainfall pattern associated with the Atlantic Niño in the present-day climate, there are 12 GCMs which project a long-term decrease in the Guinea Coast rainfall response related to the Atlantic Niño. In these models, the zonal 850 hPa wind response to the Atlantic Niño over the equatorial Atlantic is strongly attenuated in the future climate. We also find that 12 other GCMs show no robust change in the patterns associated with the Atlantic Niño. There is a higher confidence in the mid-term and long-term reduction of the rainfall associated with the Atlantic Niño over the Atlantic Ocean than over the Guinea Coast. We also found a projected decrease in the convection associated with the Atlantic Niño in the majority of the models.\u0000","PeriodicalId":92775,"journal":{"name":"Earth system dynamics : ESD","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42296674","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Oceanographic regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea until 2100","authors":"H. Meier, C. Dieterich, M. Gröger, C. Dutheil, F. Börgel, K. Safonova, O. B. Christensen, E. Kjellström","doi":"10.5194/esd-13-159-2022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The Baltic Sea, located in northern Europe, is a semi-enclosed, shallow and tideless sea with seasonal sea-ice cover in its northern sub-basins. Its long water residence time contributes to oxygen depletion in the bottom water of its southern sub-basins. In this study, recently performed scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea including marine biogeochemistry were analysed and compared with earlier published projections. Specifically, dynamical downscaling using a regionally coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model was used to regionalise four global Earth\u0000system models. However, as the regional climate model does not include\u0000components representing terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, an additional catchment and a coupled physical–biogeochemical model for the\u0000Baltic Sea were included. The scenario simulations take the impact of various global sea level rise scenarios into account. According to the projections, compared to the present climate, higher water temperatures, a shallower mixed layer with a sharper thermocline during summer, less sea-ice cover and greater mixing in the northern Baltic Sea during winter can be expected. Both the frequency and the duration of marine heat waves will increase significantly, in particular in the coastal zone of the southern Baltic Sea (except in regions with frequent upwellings). Nonetheless, due to the uncertainties in the projections regarding regional winds, the water cycle and the global sea level rise, robust and statistically significant salinity changes could not be identified. The impact of a changing climate on biogeochemical cycling is predicted to be considerable but still smaller than that of plausible nutrient input changes. Implementing the proposed Baltic Sea Action Plan, a nutrient input abatement plan for the entire catchment area, would result in a significantly improved ecological status of the Baltic Sea, including\u0000reductions in the size of the hypoxic area also in a future climate, which\u0000in turn would increase the resilience of the Baltic Sea against anticipated\u0000climate change. While our findings regarding changes in heat-cycle variables mainly confirm earlier scenario simulations, they differ substantially from earlier projections of salinity and biogeochemical cycles, due to differences in experimental setups and in input scenarios for bioavailable nutrients.\u0000","PeriodicalId":92775,"journal":{"name":"Earth system dynamics : ESD","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45844049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Supplementary material to \"Combining machine learning and SMILEs to classify, better understand, and project changes in ENSO events\"","authors":"N. Maher, T. Tabarin, Sebastian Milinski","doi":"10.5194/esd-2021-105-supplement","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-105-supplement","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurs in three phases: neutral, warm (El Niño) and cool (La Niña). While classifying El Niño and La Niña is relatively straightforward, El Niño events can be broadly classified into two types: Central Pacific (CP) and Eastern Pacific (EP). Differentiating between CP and EP events is currently dependent on both the method and observational dataset used. In this study, we create a new classification scheme using supervised machine learning trained on 18 observational and reanalysis products. This builds on previous work by identifying classes of events using the temporal evolution of sea surface temperature in multiple regions across the tropical Pacific. By applying this new classifier to seven single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) we investigate both the internal variability and forced changes in each type of ENSO event, where events identified behave similar to those observed. It is currently debated whether the observed increase in the frequency of CP events after the late 1970s is due to climate change. We found it to be within the range of internal variability in the SMILEs. When considering future changes, we do not project a change in CP frequency or amplitude under a strong warming scenario (RCP8.5/SSP370) and we find model differences in EP El Niño and La Niña frequency and amplitude projections. Finally, we find that models show differences in projected precipitation and SST pattern changes for each event type that do not seem to be linked to the Pacific mean state SST change, although the SST and precipitation changes in individual SMILEs are linked. Our work demonstrates the value of combining machine learning with climate models, and highlights the need to use SMILEs when evaluating ENSO in climate models due to the large spread of results found within a single model due to internal variability alone.\u0000","PeriodicalId":92775,"journal":{"name":"Earth system dynamics : ESD","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47140422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sensitivity of land–atmosphere coupling strength to changing atmospheric temperature and moisture over Europe","authors":"L. Jach, T. Schwitalla, Oliver Branch, K. Warrach‐Sagi, V. Wulfmeyer","doi":"10.5194/esd-13-109-2022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-109-2022","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The quantification of land–atmosphere coupling strength is still challenging, particularly in the atmospheric segment of the local coupling process chain. This is in part caused by a lack of spatially comprehensive observations of atmospheric temperature and specific humidity which form the verification basis for the common process-based coupling metrics. In this study, we aim at investigating where uncertainty in the atmospheric temperature and moisture affects the land–atmosphere coupling strength over Europe, and how changes in the mean temperature and moisture, as well as their vertical gradients, influence the coupling. For this purpose, we implemented systematic a posteriori modifications to the temperature and moisture fields from a regional climate simulation to create a spread in the atmospheric conditions. Afterwards, the process-based coupling metric convective triggering potential – low-level humidity index framework was applied to each modification case. Comparing all modification cases to the unmodified control case revealed\u0000that a strong coupling hotspot region in northeastern Europe was insensitive to temperature and moisture changes, although the number of\u0000potential coupling days varied by up to 20 d per summer season. The\u0000predominance of positive feedbacks remained unchanged in the northern part\u0000of the hotspot, and none of the modifications changed the frequent inhibition of feedbacks due to dry conditions in the atmosphere over the Mediterranean and the Iberian Peninsula. However, in the southern hotspot region in the north of the Black Sea, the dominant coupling class frequently switched between wet soil advantage and transition zone. Thus, both the coupling strength and the predominant sign of feedbacks were sensitive to changes in temperature and moisture in this region. This implies not only uncertainty in the quantification of land–atmosphere coupling strength but also the potential that climate-change-induced temperature and moisture changes considerably impact the climate there, because they also change the predominant atmospheric response to land surface wetness.\u0000","PeriodicalId":92775,"journal":{"name":"Earth system dynamics : ESD","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48189466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Carbon Dioxide Removal via Macroalgae Open-ocean Mariculture and Sinking: An Earth System Modeling Study","authors":"Jiajun Wu, D. Keller, A. Oschlies","doi":"10.5194/esd-2021-104","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-104","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. In this study we investigate open-ocean macroalgae mariculture and sinking (MOS) as ocean-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR) method. Embedding a macroalgae model into an Earth system model, we simulate macroalgae mariculture in the open-ocean surface layer followed by fast sinking of the carbon-rich macroalgal biomass to the deep seafloor (depth > 3,000 m). We also test the combination of MOS with artificial upwelling (AU), which fertilizes the macroalgae by pumping nutrient-rich deeper water to the surface. The simulations are done under RCP4.5 a moderate emission pathway. When deployed globally between years 2020 and 2100, the simulated CDR potential of MOS is 270 PgC, which is further boosted by AU to 447 PgC. More than half of MOS-sequestered carbon retains in the ocean after cessation at year 2100 until year 3000. The major side effect of MOS on pelagic ecosystems is the reduction of phytoplankton net primary production (PNPP) due to the nutrient competition and canopy shading by macroalgae. MOS shrinks the mid layer oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) by reducing the organic matter export to, and remineralization in, subsurface and intermediate waters, while it creates new OMZs on the seafloor by oxygen consumption from remineralization of sunken biomass. MOS also impacts the global carbon cycle, reduces the atmospheric and terrestrial carbon reservoir when enhancing the ocean carbon reservoir. MOS also enriches the dissolved inorganic carbon in the deep ocean. Effects are mostly reversible after cessation of MOS, though recovery is not complete by year 3000. In a sensitivity experiment without remineralization of sunk MOS biomass, the entire MOS-captured carbon is permanently stored in the ocean, but the lack of remineralized nutrients causes a long-term nutrient decline in the surface layers and thus reduces PNPP. Our results suggest that MOS has a considerable potential as an ocean-based CDR method. However, MOS has inherent side effects on marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry, which will require a careful evaluation beyond this first idealized modeling study.\u0000","PeriodicalId":92775,"journal":{"name":"Earth system dynamics : ESD","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44002293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Coupling Human and Natural Systems for Sustainability: Experiences from China’s Loess Plateau","authors":"B. Fu, Xutong Wu, Zhuangzhuang Wang, Xilin Wu, Shuai Wang","doi":"10.5194/esd-2022-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Addressing the sustainability challenges facing humanity in the Anthropocene requires the coupling of human and natural systems, rather than their separate treatment. To understand the dynamics of a coupled human and natural system (CHANS) and promote its sustainability, we proposed a conceptual cascade framework of “Pattern-Process-Service-Sustainability”. The use of this framework was systematically illustrated by a review of CHANS research experiences in China’s Loess Plateau (LP) in terms of coupling landscape patterns and ecological processes, linking ecological processes to services, and promoting social-ecological sustainability. The LP is well-known for its historically notorious soil erosion and successful vegetation restoration achieved in recent decades. Vegetation coverage in the LP has increased since 2000 due to ecological restoration. Soil erosion has been well controlled and the sediment deriving from the LP, and flowing into the Yellow River, has greatly decreased; however, overplanting, the introduction of exotic plant species, and the mismanagement of planted vegetation have also led to soil drying in some areas. Ecosystem services, especially for soil conservation and carbon sequestration, have significantly improved, although a trade-off between carbon sequestration and water supply has been identified at multiple scales. Based on the comprehensive understanding of CHANS dynamics, targeted policy and management suggestions are here proposed to support the social-ecological sustainability of the LP. The research experience accumulated on the LP offers examples of the application of the “Pattern-Process-Service-Sustainability” framework. Future research using this framework should especially examine the integrated research of multiple processes, the cascades of ecosystem structure, function, services, and human-wellbeing, the feedback mechanisms of human and natural systems, and the data and models for sustainability.\u0000","PeriodicalId":92775,"journal":{"name":"Earth system dynamics : ESD","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44294396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving the prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation of the ECMWF model by post-processing","authors":"Riccardo Silini, Sebastian Lerch, N. Mastrantonas, H. Kantz, M. Barreiro, C. Masoller","doi":"10.1002/essoar.10509976.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10509976.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a major source of predictability on the sub-seasonal (10 to 90 d) timescale. An improved forecast of the MJO may have important socioeconomic impacts due to the influence of MJO on both tropical and extratropical weather extremes. Although in the last decades state-of-the-art climate models have proved their capability for forecasting the MJO exceeding the 5-week prediction skill, there is still room for improving the prediction. In this study we use multiple linear regression (MLR) and a machine learning (ML) algorithm as post-processing methods to improve the forecast of the model that currently holds the best MJO forecasting performance, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. We find that both MLR and ML improve the MJO prediction and that ML outperforms MLR. The largest improvement is in the prediction of the MJO geographical location and intensity.\u0000","PeriodicalId":92775,"journal":{"name":"Earth system dynamics : ESD","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46268274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}