Agricultural management effects on mean and extreme temperature trends

Abstract. Understanding and quantifying land management impacts on local climate is important for distinguishing between the effects of land management and large-scale climate forcings. This study for the first time explicitly considers the radiative forcing resulting from realistic land management and offers new insights into the local land surface response to land management. Regression-based trend analysis is applied to observations and present-day ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.2.2 to assess the impact of irrigation and conservation agriculture (CA) on warming trends using an approach that is less sensitive to temperature extremes. At the regional scale, an irrigation- and CA-induced acceleration of the annual mean near-surface air temperature (T2m) warming trends and the annual maximum daytime temperature (TXx) warming trends were evident. Estimation of the impact of irrigation and CA on the spatial average of the warming trends indicated that irrigation and CA have a pulse cooling effect on T2m and TXx, after which the warming trends increase at a greater rate than the control simulations. This differed at the local (subgrid) scale under irrigation where surface temperature cooling and the dampening of warming trends were both evident. As the local surface warming trends, in contrast to regional trends, do not account for atmospheric (water vapour) feedbacks, their dampening confirms the importance of atmospheric feedbacks (water vapour forcing) in explaining the enhanced regional trends. At the land surface, the positive radiative forcing signal arising from enhanced atmospheric water vapour is too weak to offset the local cooling from the irrigation-induced increase in the evaporative fraction. Our results underline that agricultural management has complex and non-negligible impacts on the local climate and highlight the need to evaluate the representation of land management in global climate models using climate models of higher resolution.