{"title":"Benito Legarda, Jr.: in his own words and an appreciation","authors":"G. Sicat","doi":"10.37907/1erp0202d","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37907/1erp0202d","url":null,"abstract":"This remembrance is written in two parts. In the first part, Dr. Benito Legarda Jr. writes mostly in his own words. We engaged in numerous exchanges by correspondence that he initiated as reactions to my weekly column on economic and social issues and other topics in the Philippine Star. In these exchanges, he parlayed his knowledge and perspectives as an economist, economic historian, and Filipino. Included in this section is the text of a short talk he delivered on the occasion of the launch of a book I wrote about another man of stature, former Prime Minister and Finance Minister Cesar E. A. Virata. Despite some references to me and my own work (for which I apologize to the reader), it is reproduced in full because in this talk, he reveals so much little-known biographical information about himself in his own words. The second part of this essay is my own appreciation of him. We were long-time professional contemporaries in our service in the government and post-retirement. We worked almost in the same milieu and contemporary environment, although in different capacities and institutions.","PeriodicalId":91420,"journal":{"name":"The Philippine review of economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47126092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Dr. Benito Legarda, Jr. as economic diplomat","authors":"Cesar E. A. Virata","doi":"10.37907/2erp0202d","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37907/2erp0202d","url":null,"abstract":"I first met Benito Legarda—Beneting as he was known by friends—as a member of the Junior Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines, the Jaycees. After graduating with a PhD from Harvard University, upon the encouragement of Leonides Virata who met him in Rome, he joined the Department of Economic Research (DER) of the Central Bank of the Philippines (CBP). He started as an economist but he was to climb the career ladder to end up Deputy Governor until his retirement. It was Leonides Virata, who was the first Central Bank head of the DER and who happened to be my uncle, who told me about him.","PeriodicalId":91420,"journal":{"name":"The Philippine review of economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47538163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Forecasting residential electricity demand in the Philippines using an error correction model","authors":"Angelo Gabrielle F. Santos","doi":"10.37907/6erp0202j","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37907/6erp0202j","url":null,"abstract":"This study uses an Error Correction Model (ECM) to forecast residential electricity demand in the Philippines using household final consumption expenditure, residential electricity price, and temperature as explanatory variables. Results show that there is a long-run relationship between household final consumption expenditure and residential electricity demand. Estimates from the ECM are consistent with economic theory, and the model passed standard diagnostic and parameter stability tests. Forecast performance based on within-sample and out-of-sample forecasts of the ECM is also shown to be superior, relative to a benchmark Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Simulations show that by 2040, residential electricity consumption will range from 42,500 gigawatthours (GWh) based on a weak income growth scenario and 62,000 GWh based on a combined changes scenario.","PeriodicalId":91420,"journal":{"name":"The Philippine review of economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46225265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Elain Brianne Balderas, Alyanna Maria Belen Bernardo
{"title":"By his words alone: the economic consequences of Rodrigo Duterte","authors":"Elain Brianne Balderas, Alyanna Maria Belen Bernardo","doi":"10.37907/4erp0202j","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37907/4erp0202j","url":null,"abstract":"Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has gained worldwide notoriety for his foul-mouthed statements, particularly for his threats directed towards the nation’s largest businesses and their powerful owners. Such pronouncements, which may be mistaken for shifts in government policy, may inadvertently provoke the business sector to react negatively. This paper examines whether President Duterte's negative business-related pronouncements have an appreciable effect on the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi). We apply an interrupted time series model on PSEi data for the period June 30, 2016 until December 31, 2019 to determine Duterte’s impact on stock prices under six different intervention scenarios. Specifically, we test different classifications of business pronouncements— initial business pronouncements, anti-oligarch statements, personal attacks, and combinations of the three. The results show a significant relationship between Duterte’s negative business-related pronouncements on the PSEi closing price, with the biggest changes occurring during the first times he brought up a particular issue or addressed a certain personality. We aggregated the losses for the period 2018-2019 resulting from these pronouncements. For the five pronouncements, we estimate the combined losses to rise from ₱1 million on the day they were made to ₱47 million within five days and, as the market continues to adjust, up to ₱441 million within ten days.","PeriodicalId":91420,"journal":{"name":"The Philippine review of economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48128085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The conditional altruist and the Samaritan’s dilemma","authors":"Joselito T. Sescon","doi":"10.37907/5erp0202j","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37907/5erp0202j","url":null,"abstract":"The Samaritan’s dilemma refers to any situation in which an actual or expected altruistic behavior of one actor generates an incentive for exploitation on the recipient, such that the altruist suffers a welfare loss beyond the cost of the originally intended transfer. This study hypothesized that the Samaritan’s dilemma condition does (not) apply when the help given is a substitute for (complement to) the effort of the beneficiary to help herself. Using static and sequential game analyses, it is proven that either substitution or complementary condition could arise in the act of giving and receiving help. It is in the substitution condition only that the Samaritan dilemma arises. The players in a sequential game, with the first-mover advantage, can transform the game’s payoffs by setting assistance or work effort at the outset that forces the other player to adjust. Thus, Buchanan’s Samaritan’s dilemma is not a universally strategic outcome in the altruistic acts of giving. The empirical part tested if the Samaritan’s dilemma pervades or not in Philippine households by investigating the effects of expenditures of gifts on work hours. Household total transfers (consumption gifts plus remittances) and household members’ work effort are found substitutes. Thus, the Samaritan’s dilemma equilibrium is implied. However, there is also an implied equilibrium outside that of the Samaritan’s dilemma among high-effort workers: for these theoretically \"altruist\" workers, the gifts and income transfers are complementary to work hours.","PeriodicalId":91420,"journal":{"name":"The Philippine review of economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43175140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A socio-economic history of a village in Central Luzon: Thirty-six years of household survey, 1977-2013","authors":"F. Quimba, J. Estudillo","doi":"10.37907/3erp1202j","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37907/3erp1202j","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to give a detailed account of how household sources of livelihood, income, and poverty change under the pressure of four modernizing forces: (1) population pressure on closed land frontier; (2) implementation of land reform; (3) expansion of public infrastructures such as irrigation systems, roads, and schools; and (4) growing urban influences accelerated by improvements in transportation and telecommunication systems. This study was conducted in a village in Central Luzon where recurrent household surveys were done for 36 years from 1977 to 2013 encompassing the period of dramatic diffusion of modern rice technology. The major finding is that the interaction between the four modernizing forces and the diffusion of modern rice technology resulted in major economic and social changes that led to a rise in household income and prevented poverty from increasing. This study provides evidence contrary to the popular belief that the spread of modern agricultural technology and the encroachment of market activities into rural villages are harmful to the economic welfare of the rural Filipino people.","PeriodicalId":91420,"journal":{"name":"The Philippine review of economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49294597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The COVID-19 Pandemic, Remittances and Financial Inclusion in the Philippines","authors":"Eiji Yamada, Satoshi Shimizutani, Enerelt Murakami","doi":"10.37907/2ERP0202J","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37907/2ERP0202J","url":null,"abstract":"Recent literature has revealed that financial inclusion enhances economic opportunities and security in developing countries. Moreover, a greater inflow of remittances can promote inclusiveness. In this paper, we explore the potential impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak on financial inclusion by focusing on its detrimental effect on remittance flows to developing countries. Using a household-level dataset collected in rural regions of the Philippines prior to the outbreak, we confirm that remittances are associated with financial inclusion, particularly for women. We discuss the potential impacts of the pandemic on financial inclusion through the change in the flow of remittances. We show that a substantial decline in remittances caused by the COVID-19 crisis may have an adverse effect on financial inclusion in the Philippines.","PeriodicalId":91420,"journal":{"name":"The Philippine review of economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42085328","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Forces of modernization and the welfare of rural households: a saga of a village in Central Luzon, 1977-2013","authors":"F. Quimba, J. Estudillo","doi":"10.37907/3ERP0202J","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37907/3ERP0202J","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to give a detailed account of how household sources of livelihood, income, and poverty change under the pressure of four modernizing forces: (1) population pressure on closed land frontier; (2) implementation of land reform; (3) expansion of public infrastructures such as irrigation systems, roads, and schools; and (4) growing urban influences accelerated by improvements in transportation and telecommunication systems. This study was conducted in a village in Central Luzon where recurrent household surveys were done for 36 years from 1977 to 2013 encompassing the period of dramatic diffusion of modern rice technology. The major finding is that the interaction between the four modernizing forces and the diffusion of modern rice technology resulted in major economic and social changes that led to a rise in household income and prevented poverty from increasing. This study provides evidence contrary to the popular belief that the spread of modern agricultural technology and the encroachment of market activities into rural villages are harmful to the economic welfare of the rural Filipino people.","PeriodicalId":91420,"journal":{"name":"The Philippine review of economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44505426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Clubs, Coase, and the Role of Government","authors":"J. Roumasset","doi":"10.37907/1ERP0202J","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37907/1ERP0202J","url":null,"abstract":"As Ronald Coase and others have shown, deducing the appropriate role of the government in the economy requires a comparative institutions approach. Trying to generalize from oversimplified specifications regarding transaction costs, according to whether exclusion is possible or not, is a futile exercise. An alternative to the Ostrom matrix is to distinguish private, club, and collective consumption goods according to their technical characteristics, specifically their degree of congestabiilty. The other box of the Ostrom matrix, “common pool” resources, can also be usefully analyzed from a club perspective. Spillover goods are spatial clubs. Lastly, a version of the Coase theorem is offered, which provides the foundation of comparative institutional analysis.","PeriodicalId":91420,"journal":{"name":"The Philippine review of economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42860914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Bullinger Pool in Burma, 1921 to the mid-1930s","authors":"M. S. Diokno","doi":"10.37907/5erp0202d","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37907/5erp0202d","url":null,"abstract":"One of the most important developments in the history of the rice trade of colonial Burma was the creation of the Bullinger Pool in 1921, a combination of four large British milling and export firms based on a common price policy for the purchase and sale of paddy and rice. These firms dominated the rice trade at a time when paddy was the “true currency” of the country [Binns 1948:50]: as the source of livelihood for the majority and the form of payment for rent, loans, and wages. The collective position of the four companies—Steel Bros. and Co., Ltd., Bulloch Bros. and Co., Ltd., Ellerman’s Arracan Rice and Trading Co., Ltd., and Anglo-Burma Rice Co., Ltd.—reached such magnitude in the rice trade that by the 1930s, the conglomerate had become the subject of a legislative inquiry and the object of organized Burmese protest. The accusation against the Pool was that it manipulated prices in order to rake in huge profits, especially at the time of economic depression in the early 1930s. Even if the allegations of what one today might consider unfair trade practice were officially dismissed, as they were, the paper demonstrates that the Pool’s primary advantage, especially its access to paddy supplies, was the cornerstone of its position in the rice trade, making any measure of control plausible at the least. Since the relationship between paddy and rice prices was crucial to the industry’s pricing mechanism, the existence of a combination to set prices for both paddy and rice in the local market made the industry vulnerable to manipulation.","PeriodicalId":91420,"journal":{"name":"The Philippine review of economics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70202682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}