By his words alone: the economic consequences of Rodrigo Duterte

Elain Brianne Balderas, Alyanna Maria Belen Bernardo
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Abstract

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has gained worldwide notoriety for his foul-mouthed statements, particularly for his threats directed towards the nation’s largest businesses and their powerful owners. Such pronouncements, which may be mistaken for shifts in government policy, may inadvertently provoke the business sector to react negatively. This paper examines whether President Duterte's negative business-related pronouncements have an appreciable effect on the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi). We apply an interrupted time series model on PSEi data for the period June 30, 2016 until December 31, 2019 to determine Duterte’s impact on stock prices under six different intervention scenarios. Specifically, we test different classifications of business pronouncements— initial business pronouncements, anti-oligarch statements, personal attacks, and combinations of the three. The results show a significant relationship between Duterte’s negative business-related pronouncements on the PSEi closing price, with the biggest changes occurring during the first times he brought up a particular issue or addressed a certain personality. We aggregated the losses for the period 2018-2019 resulting from these pronouncements. For the five pronouncements, we estimate the combined losses to rise from ₱1 million on the day they were made to ₱47 million within five days and, as the market continues to adjust, up to ₱441 million within ten days.
仅凭他的话:罗德里戈·杜特尔特的经济后果
菲律宾总统罗德里戈·杜特尔特因其脏话连篇的言论,特别是针对该国最大企业及其强大所有者的威胁,在全球范围内臭名昭著。这些声明可能被误认为是政府政策的转变,可能会无意中引发商业部门的负面反应。本文考察了杜特尔特总统与商业有关的负面言论是否对菲律宾证券交易所指数(PSEi)产生了明显影响。我们对2016年6月30日至2019年12月31日期间的PSEi数据应用中断时间序列模型,以确定杜特尔特在六种不同干预情景下对股价的影响。具体来说,我们测试了商业声明的不同分类——最初的商业声明、反寡头声明、人身攻击以及三者的组合。结果显示,杜特尔特对PSEi收盘价的负面商业相关声明之间存在显著关系,最大的变化发生在他第一次提出特定问题或谈到特定人物时。我们汇总了这些声明导致的2018-2019年期间的损失。对于这五项声明,我们估计总损失将在五天内从发布当天的100万英镑上升到4700万英镑,随着市场的持续调整,十天内将上升到4.41亿英镑。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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