BMC Public Health最新文献

{"title":"Predictors of self-assessed likelihood of future drug use among Korean adults: the role of health beliefs and personality traits.","authors":"Joon-Yong Yang, Minhye Kim, Aeree Sohn","doi":"10.1186/s12889-025-22289-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-22289-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Substance use is a growing public health concern in South Korea. However, research on the predictive factors influencing future drug use remains limited. This study examined the self-assessed likelihood of future drug use in a sample of 3,000 Korean adults aged 19-59 years, focusing on health beliefs and personality traits as predictors. Using multiple regression analysis based on the health belief model (HBM) and selected personality traits, we explored how perceived susceptibility, self-efficacy, hope for the future, and sensation-seeking influence the likelihood of drug use. The results indicated that demographic factors such as sex, age, and income had limited predictive power. In contrast, past drug use and recent violence-related trauma significantly increased the likelihood of future drug use. Higher perceived susceptibility was associated with an increased likelihood of drug use, whereas greater self-efficacy was associated with a reduced likelihood. Among the personality traits, hope for the future was found to decrease, and sensation-seeking to increase the likelihood of drug use. This study underscores the need for interventions to enhance self-control and reduce drug accessibility. However, limitations such as reliance on self-reported data and a cross-sectional design suggest the need for longitudinal studies and culturally adapted measures in future research. These advances are crucial for validating and extending these findings, ultimately contributing to more effective drug prevention strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":9039,"journal":{"name":"BMC Public Health","volume":"25 1","pages":"1315"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143810073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Association between ambient particulate matter and respiratory health among schoolchildren in Dar es Salaam city, Tanzania: a cross-sectional study.","authors":"Justus Kamara, Stephen Kishinhi, Asinta Manyele, Happiness Saronga, Jovine Bachwenkizi","doi":"10.1186/s12889-025-22517-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-22517-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Urbanization and industrial activities have significantly contributed to the deterioration of air quality, with ambient particulate matter (PM_2.5 and PM₁₀) posing a major public health concern in most cities of developing countries. The impact of these pollutants on respiratory health, particularly that of schoolchildren, has remained inadequately studied.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>This study aimed to determine the level of ambient particulate matter (PM_2.5 and PM₁₀) and its association with respiratory symptoms among school children in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We conducted a cross-sectional study targeting schoolchildren aged 9-16 to investigate the impact of air pollution on respiratory health. A sample of 427 children was selected through stratified random sampling, which combined primary and secondary data. Standardized questionnaires and air quality monitoring for PM exposure were used to collect data. Analysis methods included descriptive statistics, and logistic regression to elucidate the association between PM exposure and respiratory symptoms.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The prevalence of respiratory symptoms among the schoolchildren was notably high, with 35.1% reporting coughing, 26.7% wheezing, 31.4% breathlessness, and 28.1% severe chest illness. Significant associations were found between proximity to pollution sources (OR = 3.4, 95% CI: 2.3-5.0, p < 0.001 for coughing; OR = 7.0, 95% CI: 2.9-17.2, p < 0.001 for wheezing; OR = 3.9, 95% CI: 2.3-6.6, p < 0.001 for breathlessness; OR = 6.4, 95% CI: 3.3-12.0, p < 0.001 for severe chest illness), household smoking (OR = 1.2, 95% CI: 1.02-1.4, p < 0.05 for wheezing; OR = 1.2, 95% CI: 1.01-1.4, p < 0.05 for severe chest illness), and the use of biomass for cooking (OR = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.4-4.0, p < 0.01 for wheezing; OR = 2.3, 95% CI: 1.4-3.8, p < 0.01 for severe chest illness) with the occurrence of respiratory symptoms. Ambient PM levels, particularly PM_2.5 and PM₁₀, exceeded WHO limits in several locations. WHO recommends PM_2.5 levels below 5 µg/m³ and PM₁₀ below 15 µg/m³, while Dar es Salaam recorded PM_2.5 between 35-50 µg/m³ and PM₁₀ between 75-100 µg/m³, significantly higher than recommended.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The study emphasizes the significant impact of air pollution on the respiratory health of schoolchildren in Dar es Salaam and calls for targeted interventions to reduce particulate matter exposure, particularly in high-risk urban areas of Dar es salaam, Tanzania.</p>","PeriodicalId":9039,"journal":{"name":"BMC Public Health","volume":"25 1","pages":"1314"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143810431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of the control of \"life's essential 8\" for prevention on heart failure and all-cause mortality in patients with hypertension: the Kailuan cohort study.","authors":"Jing Wang, Shuilin Wu, Liuxin Li, Jing Wu, Shiqiu Meng, Xueying Qin, Xin Chen, Shoulin Wu, Jie Shi, Yanping Bao, Feng Wang","doi":"10.1186/s12889-025-22422-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-22422-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Hypertension can lead to an increased risk of heart failure and death. The life's essential 8 (LE8) is an eight-factor measure of cardiovascular health recently released by the American Heart Association for use in measuring cardiovascular health. However, evidence on the beneficial effects and necessity of LE8 control is still lacking, especially for hypertension.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The study population was drawn from the Kailuan cohort, hypertensive population at baseline with the non-hypertensive population matched 1:1 according to age and sex were involved in this analysis. The cut off value for each factor in LE8 was 50 (≥ 50 as controlled, < 50 as uncontrolled). The primary outcomes involved heart failure and all-cause mortality. Cox proportional risk regression models were used to analyze the relationship between the degree of LE8 control and the risk of heart failure and all-cause mortality among hypertensive participants. Hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A baseline population of 69,032 Kailuan cohort with a mean age of 53.08 years (SD 10.59) was included in the study. During a mean follow-up period of 13.17 years (SD 2.57), 1308 (3.8%) heart failures and 5391 (15.6%) deaths occurred among hypertensive patients. In the hypertensive population, there was a negative dose response between the degree of LE8 control and the risk of heart failure or death (P for trend < 0.001). Compared with the group with the control less than or equal to 2 risk factors of LE8, the group with 6 or more risk factors of control had a 55% lower risk of heart failure (HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.26-0.77; P < 0.05) and a 31% lower risk of death (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.50-0.93; P < 0.05). Compared with the non-hypertensive population, the risk of heart failure and death decreased with increasing of the number of risk factor controlled in LE8, down to a minimum of 1.27-fold (HR 1.27, 95%CI 1.13-1.42; P < 0.05) and 1.25-fold (HR 1.25, 95%CI 1.19-1.32; P < 0.05), respectively. In addition, the association between hypertension and heart failure or mortality was higher in participants aged < 60 years compared with older individuals (P for interaction < 0.05).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Enhanced control of LE8 is significantly associated with a reduced risk of heart failure and mortality in hypertensive patients, as well as a decreased likelihood of hypertension-related heart failure or mortality.</p>","PeriodicalId":9039,"journal":{"name":"BMC Public Health","volume":"25 1","pages":"1322"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143810077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Annual risk of long-term sickness absence due to musculoskeletal disorders across the lifespan and the role of physical activity and insomnia symptoms: the HUNT Study.","authors":"Karoline Moe, Eivind Schjelderup Skarpsno, Tom Ivar Lund Nilsen, Paul Jarle Mork, Paulo Ferreira, Lene Aasdahl","doi":"10.1186/s12889-025-22519-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-22519-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The risk of long-term sickness absence due to musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders could be driven by sleep problems and physical inactivity. However, it is not well explored if these associations differ across the lifespan. The aim of this study was to describe the annual risk of long-term sickness absence due to MSK disorders throughout working life, according to insomnia symptoms and physical activity, in people with and without MSK pain.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A total of 38,253 working-age individuals (20-62 years) with information on self-reported chronic MSK pain, physical activity, and insomnia symptoms in the third (2006-08) and/or fourth (2017-19) survey of the Norwegian HUNT Study were included. Annual sickness absence up to 5 years after participation was obtained from national registry data. Annual risk of long-term sickness absence due to MSK disorders were estimated as the proportion receiving medical benefits for ≥ 31 consecutive days each calendar year using a Poisson regression model. The model was fitted via generalized estimating equations to account for dependencies in observations and presented according to categories of chronic MSK pain combined with insomnia symptoms (yes, no) or physical activity level (inactive/low, moderate, high).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The average annual proportion with long-term sickness absence due to MSK disorders increased from 3.7% in women < 30 years to 11.3% in women ≥ 50 years, and from 2.7 to 7.1% among men in the same age groups. Annual risk of long-term sickness absence due to MSK disorders was greater among those reporting chronic MSK pain and who also suffered from insomnia symptoms compared to those without any of these conditions. This was particularly evident in age 30-39 and 40-49 years, where the co-occurrence of chronic MSK pain and insomnia symptoms was associated with a 4-fold increased risk of long-term sickness absence due to MSK disorders in women, and an almost 5-fold increased risk in men. The risk of sickness absence did not differ according to physical activity levels.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The annual risk of long-term sickness absence due to MSK disorders in working-age individuals was related to insomnia symptoms, especially among those aged 40 to 60 years, but not to physical activity.</p>","PeriodicalId":9039,"journal":{"name":"BMC Public Health","volume":"25 1","pages":"1318"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143810430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring patients' understanding of behavioral risk factors for non-communicable diseases: a study on diabetes and hypertension in Bushbuckridge, South Africa.","authors":"Thabo D Pilusa, Cairo B Ntimana, Mahlodi P Maphakela, Eric Maimela","doi":"10.1186/s12889-025-22514-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-22514-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) account for 41 million annual deaths worldwide, or 74% of all deaths. Notably, 86% of the 17 million premature deaths attributed to NCDs occur in low- and middle-income countries. Despite the burden of these diseases, many patients lack sufficient knowledge of behavioral risk factors that contribute to NCDs. The study aimed to explore the knowledge of patients diagnosed with diabetes and hypertension about behavioral risk factors contributing to non-communicable diseases.</p><p><strong>Method: </strong>The study employed a qualitative, explorative, and descriptive design. Data was collected through semi-structured interviews, and participants were selected purposively. The data analysis followed Tesch's open thematic approach, applied at various levels and based on patient-provided text data, with the thematic analysis, the researcher was able to organize and interpret the data presented in the themes systematically.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Four major themes emerged regarding the understanding of behavioral risk factors for non-communicable diseases among patients diagnosed with diabetes and hypertension. These include unhealthy eating habits and poor lifestyle choices, mental health issues and stress, challenges patients face in adhering to medications, and optimal management of their conditions, cultural practices, and beliefs.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The study shed some insights into the knowledge of patients diagnosed with diabetes and hypertension about behavioral risk factors contributing to NCD. They indicated that witchcraft, cultural beliefs, and inadequate health education could have resulted in NCDs, which influenced them to consult traditional healers before coming to the health facility. The observations of participants underscore the urgent need for targeted interventions to improve the knowledge of patients regarding behavioral risk factors for NCDs.</p>","PeriodicalId":9039,"journal":{"name":"BMC Public Health","volume":"25 1","pages":"1320"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143810446","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global burden of periodontal diseases among the working-age population from 1990-2021: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.","authors":"Haojie Fu, Xinyu Li, Ruhong Zhang, Jiaxue Zhu, Xudong Wang","doi":"10.1186/s12889-025-22566-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-22566-x","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Background: &lt;/strong&gt;Periodontal diseases among working-age individuals (15-69 years) represent a significant global health challenge, impacting oral health, quality of life, and economic productivity. Defined according to the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) framework, periodontal disease in this study encompasses symptoms such as halitosis, altered taste sensation, and occasional gingival bleeding that do not impair daily activities. Despite their prevalence, comprehensive analyses of the global burden of periodontal diseases specifically within this demographic remain limited.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Methods: &lt;/strong&gt;We analyzed data from the GBD 2021 study, examining periodontal disease burden among individuals aged 15-69 years across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. Age-standardized rates of prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were calculated. We employed joinpoint regression analysis to assess temporal trends, decomposition analysis to examine contributing factors, and frontier analysis to evaluate the relationship between disease burden and sociodemographic development.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Findings: &lt;/strong&gt;In 2021, global periodontal disease cases reached 951.3 million (95% UI: 729.0-1,183.3 million), with an age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR: 17,011.6 per 100,000 persons) and 80.3 million new cases (ASIR: 1,464.7 per 100,000). The burden accounted for 6.2 million DALYs globally (age-standardized DALY rate: 110.8 per 100,000). Asia demonstrated the highest age-standardized rates across all metrics, while Low-middle SDI regions showed the highest ASPR (20,920.5 per 100,000) and ASIR (1,627.9 per 100,000). At the national level, Sierra Leone, Gambia, and Cabo Verde had the highest disease burden. Males consistently showed higher prevalence rates than females, with peak rates observed in the 50-59 age group. Joinpoint regression analysis revealed an overall increasing trend from 1990 to 2021 (AAPC: 0.04, 95% UI: 0.01-0.06), with notable variations across different time periods. While some countries like Qatar, UAE, and Jordan experienced over 500% increase in prevalence since 1990, Pacific island nations like Tonga and Tokelau achieved reductions exceeding 70%. Decomposition analysis identified population growth (74.56%) and aging (23.00%) as primary drivers of increased disease burden.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Interpretation: &lt;/strong&gt;Our analysis reveals significant global disparities in periodontal disease burden among the working-age population, with concerning increases in many regions from 1990 to 2021. The disproportionate burden in Low-middle SDI regions and South Asia, coupled with the substantial impact of population growth and aging, highlights the urgent need for targeted interventions. While some countries have achieved remarkable reductions in disease burden, the dramatic increases in others underscore the importance of strengthening preventive oral healthcare systems and addressing socio","PeriodicalId":9039,"journal":{"name":"BMC Public Health","volume":"25 1","pages":"1316"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143810447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 on hepatitis B in Henan Province and its epidemic trend based on Bayesian structured time series model.","authors":"Xinxiao Li, Yanyan Li, Shushuo Xu, Penghao Wang, Meng Hu, Haibin Li, Yongbin Wang","doi":"10.1186/s12889-025-22305-2","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12889-025-22305-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>There may be evidence that COVID-19 affects illness patterns. This study aimed to assess the effects of COVID-19 epidemic on the declines in hepatitis B (HB) case notifications and to estimate the epidemiological trends of HB in Henan.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The Bayesian structured time series (BSTS) method was used to investigate the causal effect of COVID-19 on the decline in HB cases based on the monthly incidence of HB from January 2013 to September 2022. To assess how well the BSTS algorithm performs predictions, we split the observations into various training and testing ranges.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The incidence of HB in Henan was generally declining with periodicity and seasonality. The seasonal index in September and February was the smallest (0.91 and 0.93), and that in March was the largest (1.19). Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the monthly average number of notifications of HB cases decreased by 38% (95% credible intervals [CI]: -44% to -31%) from January to March 2020, by 24% (95% CI: -29% to -17%) from January to June 2020, by 15% (95% CI: -19% to -9.2%) from January to December 2020, by 11% (95% CI: -15% to -6.7%) from January 2020 to June 2021, and by 11% (95% CI: -15% to -7.3%) from January 2020 to December 2021. From January 2020 to September 2022, it decreased by 12% (95% CI: -16% to -8.1%). From 2021 to 2022, the impact of COVID-19 on HB was attenuated. In both training and test sets, the average absolute percentage error (10.03%) generated by the BSTS model was smaller than that generated by the ARIMA model (14.4%). It was also found that the average absolute error, root mean square error, and root mean square percentage error generated by the BSTS model were smaller than ones generated by the ARIMA model. The trend of HB cases in Henan from October 2022 to December 2023 predicted by the BSTS model remained stable, with a total number of 81,650 cases (95% CI: 47,372 to 115,391).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>During the COVID-19 pandemic, the incidence of HB in Henan decreased and exhibited clear seasonal and cyclical trends. The BSTS model outperformed the ARIMA model in predicting the HB incidence trend in Henan. This information may serve as a reference and provide technical assistance for developing strategies and actions to prevent and control HB. Take additional measures to accelerate the progress of eliminating HB.</p>","PeriodicalId":9039,"journal":{"name":"BMC Public Health","volume":"25 1","pages":"1312"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143802407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Longitudinal impact of different categories of adverse childhood experiences on social participation and informal social support among middle-aged and older adults in China.","authors":"Lu Chen, Yuke Yang, Liangyu Zhao, Zhihao Jia, Yan Gao","doi":"10.1186/s12889-025-22492-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-22492-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) can have a significant impact on informal social support (ISS) and social participation (SP) among middle-aged and older adults. Existing studies highlight the critical role of SP and ISS in promoting healthy aging. Social participation is associated with reduced cognitive decline, lower mortality risk, and improved mental health in older adults. ISS is linked to better physical and psychological outcomes. However, despite evidence on the protective effects of SP and ISS, the impact of ACEs on these factors in middle and older adulthood remains unclear. To analyze and understand the characteristics of different subgroups of ACEs and to comprehend the influence of ACEs on SP and ISS in middle-aged and older adults.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS, 2011-2018) and the 2014 Life History Survey (N = 11070). Diverse aspects of SP frequency, ISS, and ACEs were identified based on the CHARLS questionnaire items and ACEs were categorized using latent profile models. The fixed effects model was used to understand the impact of ACEs on SP and ISS and to explore differences in ACE subgroup.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Three distinct subgroups of ACEs were determined. It was found that the central role of parental mental health in the intergenerational transmission of ACEs, that better parental mental health and childhood SES in ACEs had a positive impact on SP and ISS (p < 0.01), and that those who experienced physical abuse were less likely to contact their children (β = -0.009, p < 0.001). But no significant differences were found in poor parental mental group.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>This study reveals that better parental mental health and childhood SES in ACEs have a positive impact on SP and ISS. It is recommended that screening and intervention for ACEs be integrated into the Chinese community health service system to increase the prevalence of SP and reduce the intergenerational transmission of trauma for healthy aging.</p>","PeriodicalId":9039,"journal":{"name":"BMC Public Health","volume":"25 1","pages":"1324"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143810056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predicting spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue using INLA (integrated nested laplace approximation) in Yogyakarta, Indonesia.","authors":"Marko Ferdian Salim, Tri Baskoro Tunggul Satoto, Danardono","doi":"10.1186/s12889-025-22545-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-22545-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease caused by the dengue virus, primarily transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Its incidence fluctuates due to spatial and temporal factors, necessitating robust modeling approaches for prediction and risk mapping.</p><p><strong>Objectives: </strong>This study aims to develop a spatio-temporal Bayesian model for predicting dengue incidence, integrating climatic, sociodemographic, and environmental factors to improve outbreak forecasting.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>An ecological study was conducted in the Special Region of Yogyakarta, Indonesia (January 2017-December 2022) using monthly panel data from 78 sub-districts. Secondary data sources included dengue surveillance (Health Office), meteorological data (NASA POWER), sociodemographic data (BPS-Statistics Indonesia), and land use data (Sentinel-2, ESRI). Predictors included rainfall, temperature, humidity, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, population density, and land use patterns. Data analysis was performed using R-INLA, with model performance assessed using Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), Watanabe-Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC), marginal log-likelihood, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The INLA-based Bayesian model effectively captured spatial and temporal dengue dynamics. Key predictors included rainfall lag 1 and 2 (mean = 0.001), temperature (mean = 0.151, CI: 0.090-0.210), humidity (mean = 0.056, CI: 0.040-0.073), built area (mean = 0.001), and water area (mean = 0.008, CI: 0.005-0.011). Spatial clustering (BYM model, precision = 2163.53) indicated that dengue cases were concentrated in specific areas. The RW2 model (precision = 49.11) confirmed seasonal trends, highlighting climate's role in disease transmission. Model evaluation metrics (DIC = 15017.88, WAIC = 15294.54, log-likelihood = -7845.857) demonstrated good predictive performance. Furthermore, the model's accuracy was assessed using MAE and RMSE values, where MAE = 1.77 indicates an average prediction error of 1-2 cases, while RMSE = 2.97 suggests the presence of occasional larger discrepancies. The RMSE's higher value relative to MAE highlights instances where prediction errors were more significant, as RMSE is more sensitive to large deviations.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The INLA-based spatio-temporal model is an effective tool for dengue prediction, offering valuable insights for early warning systems and targeted vector control strategies, thereby improving disease prevention and response efforts.</p>","PeriodicalId":9039,"journal":{"name":"BMC Public Health","volume":"25 1","pages":"1321"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143810069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Social capital, functional health status and quality of life among adults in rural Southwest Nigeria.","authors":"Promise Izuchukwu Okoroafor, Joshua Odunayo Akinyemi, Mobolaji Modinat Salawu, Olufunmilayo Ibitola Fawole","doi":"10.1186/s12889-025-22429-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-22429-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The health and well-being of adults is important for attainment of the third sustainable development goal. Both social capital and health are essential for development, hence research is needed to explore this relationship in low income countries. Therefore, this study explored the association(s) between structural social capital, functional health status, and quality of life among adults in rural southwest Nigeria.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Cross-sectional data was collected from 922 residents of rural communities in three states of southwest Nigeria. Questions on adult health, subjective well-being, and quality of life were adapted from the WHO Global Ageing and Adult Health Study. For the assessment of social capital, the questions focused on group membership, sources of support, and the extent of trust/relationship with neighbours in the community. The association between structural social capital, functional health status, and quality of life was investigated using Structural Equation Models.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The respondents had a mean age of 37.0 years (SD = 15.8). Females constituted 58.6% of the sample, and 46.5% had attained secondary education. The majority were traders (33.2%) and artisans (29.9%). Additionally, 672 respondents (72.9%) were married. There was a positive relationship between social capital and quality of life (β = 0.198, p = 0.002). Education level was found to be a significant factor in the relationship between social capital and health status (p = 0.047) as well as between health status and quality of life (p = < 0.001). The relationship between health status and quality of life was moderated by the respondent's age (p = 0.028). Social capital did not influence the relationship between health status and quality of life (β = 0.002, p = 0.471).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Social capital significantly influenced the quality of life in rural southwest Nigeria. Interventions aimed at improving the quality of life in these communities should leverage social networks, promote health education, and enhance access to healthcare. Targeted programs such as community-based health initiatives, peer-support networks for younger adults, and literacy programs for individuals with lower education levels can strengthen social capital and improve health outcomes. Younger adults and those with lower levels of education should be the primary targets of such interventions.</p>","PeriodicalId":9039,"journal":{"name":"BMC Public Health","volume":"25 1","pages":"1317"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143810075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}