{"title":"Improved Prediction of Dimethyl Sulfide (DMS) Distributions in the NE Subarctic Pacific using Machine Learning Algorithms","authors":"Brandon J. McNabb, P. Tortell","doi":"10.5194/bg-2021-189","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-189","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a volatile biogenic gas with the potential to influence regional climate as a source of atmospheric aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The complexity of the oceanic DMS cycle presents a challenge in accurately predicting sea-surface concentrations and sea-air fluxes of this gas. In this study, we applied machine learning methods to model the distribution of DMS in the NE Subarctic Pacific (NESAP), a global DMS hot-spot. Using nearly two decades of ship-based DMS observations, combined with satellite-derived oceanographic data, we constructed ensembles of 1000 machine-learning models using two techniques, random forest regression (RFR) and artificial neural networks (ANN). Our models dramatically improve upon existing statistical DMS models, capturing up to 62 % of observed DMS variability in the NESAP and demonstrate notable regional patterns that are associated with mesoscale oceanographic variability. In particular, our results indicate a strong coherence between DMS concentrations, sea surface nitrate (SSN) concentrations, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and sea surface height anomalies (SSHA), suggesting that NESAP DMS cycling is primarily influenced by heterogenous nutrient availability, light-dependent processes and physical mixing. Based on our model output, we derive summertime, sea-air flux estimates ranging between 0.5–2.0 Tg S yr−1 in the NESAP. Our work demonstrates a new approach to capturing spatial and temporal patterns in DMS variability, which is likely applicable to other oceanic regions.\u0000","PeriodicalId":89897,"journal":{"name":"Biogeosciences discussions : (BGD)","volume":" ","pages":"1-33"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45672238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sarina Schmidt, E. Hathorne, J. Schönfeld, D. Garbe‐Schönberg
{"title":"Heavy metal uptake of near-shore benthic foraminifera during multi-metal culturing experiments","authors":"Sarina Schmidt, E. Hathorne, J. Schönfeld, D. Garbe‐Schönberg","doi":"10.5194/bg-2021-158","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-158","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Heavy metal pollution originating from anthropogenic sources, e.g., mining, industry and extensive land use, is increasing in many parts of the world and influences coastal marine environments for a long time. The elevated input of heavy metals into the marine system potentially affects the biota because of their toxicity, persistence and bioaccumulation. An emerging tool for environmental applications is the heavy metal incorporation into foraminiferal tests calcite, which facilitates monitoring of anthropogenic footprints on recent and past environmental systems. The aim of this study is to investigate whether the incorporation of heavy metals in foraminifera is a direct function of their concentration in seawater. Culturing experiments with a mixture of dissolved chromium (Cr), manganese (Mn), nickel (Ni), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), silver (Ag), cadmium (Cd), tin (Sn), mercury (Hg) and lead (Pb) in artificial seawater were carried out over a wide concentration range to assess the uptake of heavy metals by the near-shore foraminiferal species Ammonia aomoriensis, Ammonia batava and Elphidium excavatum. Seawater analysis exhibited the increasing metal concentrations between culturing phases and revealed high metal concentrations in the beginning of the culturing phases due to the punctual metal addition. Furthermore, a loss of metals during the culturing process was discovered, which lead to a deviation between the expected and the actual concentrations of the metals in seawater. Laser ablation ICP-MS analysis of the newly formed calcite revealed species-specific differences in the incorporation of heavy metals. The foraminiferal calcite of all three species reveals a strong positive correlation with Pb and Ag concentrations in the culturing medium. Ammonia aomoriensis further showed a correlation with Mn and Cu, A. batava with Mn and Hg and E. excavatum with Cr and Ni, and partially also with Hg. Zn, Sn and Cd showed no clear trend for the species studied, which may be caused by the little variation of these metals in seawater. Our calibrations and the calculated partition coefficients render A. aomoriensis, A. batava and E. excavatum as natural archives that enable the direct quantification of metals in polluted and pristine environments. This in turn allows monitoring of the ecosystem status of areas that are potentially under the threat of anthropogenic pollution in order to evaluate contemporary emission reduction measures.\u0000","PeriodicalId":89897,"journal":{"name":"Biogeosciences discussions : (BGD)","volume":"1 1","pages":"1-50"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43092569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Adding organic matter to restore wetland soils may increase methane generation and is not needed for hydric soil development","authors":"Brian Scott, A. Baldwin, S. Yarwood","doi":"10.5194/bg-2021-182","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-182","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Methane (CH4) emissions are a potent contributor to global warming and wetlands can be a significant CH4 source. In a microcosm study we evaluated how the practice of amending soils with organic matter as part of wetland restoration projects may affect CH4 production potential. Organic amendments including hay, manure, biosolids and compost were evaluated at three different levels. Using 1-liter glass microcosms, we measured the production of biogenic gases over 60 days in two soils, a sandy loam (SL) and a sandy clay loam (SCL). Fresh organic amendments increased CH4 production, leading to potentially higher global warming potential and wetland C loss, particularly in sandy soils. Organic amendments increased biogenic gas production in two sequential steady state phases: Phase 1 produced some CH4 but was mostly carbon dioxide (CO2) followed by Phase 2, two to six weeks later, with much higher total gas and nearly equal amounts of CH4 and CO2. The CH4 from the SCL soil ranged from 0.003–0.8 cc/Kg/day in Phase 1 to 0.75–28 in Phase 2 and the SL range from 0.03–16 cc/Kg/day in Phase 1 to 1.8–64 in Phase 2. We had set out to identify an organic amendment that would promote iron (Fe) reduction without excess CH4, but amendments were not needed to produce Fe and make soils hydric. Adding fresh organic matter (hay) resulted in both excess Fe2+ and CH4 whereas composted amendments had little effect. The potential for excess methanogenesis should be taken into account when considering organic matter amendments in mitigation wetlands.\u0000","PeriodicalId":89897,"journal":{"name":"Biogeosciences discussions : (BGD)","volume":" ","pages":"1-18"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45679126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
U. Obolski, Thomas Wichard, Á. Israel, A. Golberg, Alexander Liberzon
{"title":"Modeling the growth and sporulation dynamics of the macroalga Ulva in mixed-age populations in cultivation and the formation of green tides","authors":"U. Obolski, Thomas Wichard, Á. Israel, A. Golberg, Alexander Liberzon","doi":"10.5194/bg-2021-183","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-183","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Ulva is a widespread green algal genus with important ecological roles and promising potential as a seagriculture crop. One of the major challenges when cultivating Ulva is sudden biomass disappearance, likely caused by uncontrolled and unpredicted massive sporulation. However, the dynamics of this process are still poorly understood. In this study, we propose a mathematical model describing the biomass accumulation and degradation of Ulva, considering the potential impact of sporulation inhibitors. We developed a differential equation model describing the time evolution of Ulva biomass. Our model simulates biomass in compartments of different Ulva ‘age’ classes, with varying growth and sporulation rates. Coupled with these classes is a differential equation describing the presence of a sporulation inhibitor, produced and secreted by the algae. Our model mimics observed Ulva dynamics. We present Ulva's biomass accumulation under different initial algae population age distributions and sporulation rates. Furthermore, we simulate water replacement, effectively depleting the sporulation inhibitor, and examine its effects on Ulva's biomass accumulation. The model developed in this work is the first step towards understanding the dynamics of Ulva growth and degradation. Future work refining and expanding our results should prove beneficial to the ecological research and industrial growth of Ulva.\u0000","PeriodicalId":89897,"journal":{"name":"Biogeosciences discussions : (BGD)","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46259982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
D. Ricciuto, Xiaojuan Yang, Dali Wang, P. Thornton
{"title":"The impacts of model structure, parameter uncertainty and experimental design on Earth system model simulations of litter bag decomposition experiments","authors":"D. Ricciuto, Xiaojuan Yang, Dali Wang, P. Thornton","doi":"10.5194/BG-2021-163","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/BG-2021-163","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Accurate Earth system model simulations of the terrestrial carbon cycle and its feedbacks to climate critically depend on algorithms representing the decomposition of litter and soil organic matter. Litter bag studies, in which specific types of plant litter are subject to varying environmental conditions in the field and decomposition is measured, serve as valuable benchmarks for model performance. Here we test the Energy Exascale Earth System land model (ELM), which has two different structural representations of decomposition, using observations from the Long-term Intersite Decomposition Experiment (LIDET) over six different biomes and six different leaf litter types. We find that seasonal patterns in soil conditions and nutrient availability have large effects on decomposition rates, and that it is critical to include this in the simulation design. Despite widely differing base decomposition rates between the two different model structures, the models produce similar temporal patterns of decomposition when nitrogen is limiting. Both models overpredict the fraction of original nitrogen present as a function of carbon remaining when using default parameterizations. A parameter sensitivity analysis indicates strong dependence of model outputs on nitrogen limitation, carbon use efficiency and decomposition rates. A large spread in model predictions when considering an ensemble of possible parameter combinations strongly suggests parameter uncertainty may be more influential than model structural uncertainty, and that new measurement and modelling approaches may be necessary to constrain these uncertainties.\u0000","PeriodicalId":89897,"journal":{"name":"Biogeosciences discussions : (BGD)","volume":" ","pages":"1-36"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42123985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Á. Kocsis, Qianshuo Zhao, M. J. Costello, W. Kiessling
{"title":"Not all biodiversity richspots are climate refugia","authors":"Á. Kocsis, Qianshuo Zhao, M. J. Costello, W. Kiessling","doi":"10.5194/BG-2021-179","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/BG-2021-179","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Anthropogenic climate change is increasingly threatening biodiversity on a global scale. Richspots of biodiversity, regions with exceptionally high endemism and/or number of species, are a top priority for nature conservation. Terrestrial studies have hypothesised that richspots occur in places where long-term climate change was dampened relative to other regions. Here we tested whether biodiversity richspots are likely to provide refugia for organisms during anthropogenic climate change. We assess the spatial distribution of both historic (absolute temperature change and climate change velocities) and projected climate change in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine richspots. The results suggest that although terrestrial and freshwater richspots have been and will be somewhat less affected than other areas, they are not excluded from the impacts of global warming. Their characteristic biota is expected to witness similar forcing as other areas, including range shifts and elevated risk of extinction. Marine richspots have warmed even more, have higher climate velocities and are projected to experience higher future warming than non-richspot areas. Our findings emphasise the urgency of protecting a comprehensive and representative network of biodiversity-rich areas that accommodate species range shifts under climate change.\u0000","PeriodicalId":89897,"journal":{"name":"Biogeosciences discussions : (BGD)","volume":"1 1","pages":"1-18"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41864821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Boreal Forest Wildfire and Climate Linked Drivers of Carbon and Nitrogen Loss","authors":"J. Eckdahl, J. Kristensen, D. Metcalfe","doi":"10.5194/BG-2021-178","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/BG-2021-178","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The boreal landscape covers large portions of the earth's land area and stores a significant percentage of its terrestrial carbon (C). Increased emissions due to climate change amplified fire frequency, size and intensity threaten to remove elements such as C and nitrogen (N) from forest soil and vegetation at rates faster than they accumulate. This may result in large areas within the region becoming a net source of greenhouse gases creating a positive feedback loop with a changing climate. Estimates of per area fire emissions are regionally limited and knowledge of their relation to climate and ecosystem properties is sparse. This study sampled 50 separate Swedish wildfires from 2018 providing quantitative estimates of C and N loss due to fire along a climate gradient. Mean annual precipitation had strong positive effects on total fuel, which was the strongest driver for increasing C and N losses, while mean annual temperature (MAT) had greater influence on both pre- and postfire fuel bulk and chemical properties which had mixed effects on C and N losses. Significant fire induced loss of C occurred in the 50 plots comparable to estimates in similar Eurasian forests but approximately a quarter of those found in typical North American boreal wildfires. N loss was insignificant though large proportions were collected from lower soil layers to a surface layer of char in proportion to increased MAT. These results reveal the variability of C and N losses between global regions and across local climate conditions and a need to better incorporate these factors into models to improve estimates of global emissions of C and N due to fire in future climate scenarios. Additionally, this study demonstrated the linkage between climate and the chemical transformation of residual soil fuel and discusses its potential for altering C and N dynamics in postfire recovery.\u0000","PeriodicalId":89897,"journal":{"name":"Biogeosciences discussions : (BGD)","volume":" ","pages":"1-26"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49124068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Pallandt, J. Kumar, M. Mauritz, E. Schuur, A. Virkkala, G. Celis, F. Hoffman, M. Göckede
{"title":"Representativeness assessment of the pan-Arctic eddy-covariance site network, and optimized future enhancements","authors":"M. Pallandt, J. Kumar, M. Mauritz, E. Schuur, A. Virkkala, G. Celis, F. Hoffman, M. Göckede","doi":"10.5194/BG-2021-133","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/BG-2021-133","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Large changes in the Arctic carbon balance are expected as warming linked to climate change threatens to destabilize ancient permafrost carbon stocks. The eddy covariance (EC) method is an established technique to quantify net losses and gains of carbon between the biosphere and atmosphere at high spatio-temporal resolution. Over the past decades, a growing network of terrestrial EC tower sites has been established across the Arctic, but a comprehensive assessment of the network’s representativeness within the heterogeneous Arctic region is still lacking. This creates additional uncertainties when integrating flux data across sites, for example when upscaling fluxes to constrain pan-Arctic carbon budgets, and changes therein. This study provides an inventory of Arctic (here >= 60° N) EC sites, which has also been made available online (https://cosima.nceas.ucsb.edu/carbon-flux-sites/). Our database currently comprises 120 EC sites, but only 83 are listed as active, and just 25 of these active sites remain operational throughout the winter. To map the representativeness of this EC network, based on 18 bioclimatic and edaphic variables, we evaluated the similarity between environmental conditions observed at the tower locations and those within the larger Arctic study domain. With the majority of sites located in Fennoscandia and Alaska, these regions were assigned the highest level of network representativeness, while large parts of Siberia and patches of Canada were classified as under-represented. This division between regions is further emphasized for wintertime and methane flux data coverage. Across the Arctic, particularly mountainous regions were poorly represented by the current EC observation network. We tested three different strategies to identify new site locations, or upgrades of existing sites, that optimally enhance the representativeness of the current EC network. While 15 new sites can improve the representativeness of the pan-Arctic network by 20 percent, upgrading as few as 10 existing sites to capture methane fluxes, or remain active during wintertime, can improve their respective network coverage by 28 to 33 percent. This targeted network improvement could be shown to be clearly superior to an unguided selection of new sites, therefore leading to substantial improvements in network coverage based on relatively small investments.\u0000","PeriodicalId":89897,"journal":{"name":"Biogeosciences discussions : (BGD)","volume":" ","pages":"1-42"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46931419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Mass concentrations of autumn bioaerosol in a mature temperate woodland Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE) experiment: investigating the role of meteorology and carbon dioxide levels","authors":"Aileen Baird, E. Bannister, A. MacKenzie, F. Pope","doi":"10.5194/BG-2021-162","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/BG-2021-162","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Forest environments contain a wide variety of airborne biological particles (bioaerosols), including pollen, fungal spores, bacteria, viruses, plant detritus and soil particles. Forest bioaerosol plays a number of important roles related to plant and livestock health, human disease and allergenicity, forest and wider ecology, and are thought to influence biosphere/atmosphere interactions via warm and cold cloud formation. Despite the importance of bioaerosols, there are few measurements of forest aerosol, and there is a lack of understanding of how climate change will affect forest bioaerosol in the future. We installed low-cost optical particle counters (OPCs) to measure particles in the size range between 1 and 10 μm, where bioaerosols will likely dominate the particle mass concentration, for a period of two months in Autumn 2018 at the Birmingham Institute of Forest Research (BIFoR) Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE) facility. The BIFoR FACE facility fumigates three 700 m2 areas of the forest with an additional 150 ppm CO2 above ambient with minimal impacts on other potential environmental drivers such as temperature, humidity, and wind. This experimental set-up enabled us to investigate the effect of environmental variables, including elevated CO2 (eCO2), on bioaerosol concentrations, and to evaluate the performance of the low-cost OPCs in a forested environment. Operating the low-cost OPCs during Autumn 2018, we aimed to capture predominantly the fungal bioaerosol season. Across the experimental duration, the OPCs captured both temporal and spatial variation in bioaerosol concentrations. Aerosol concentrations were affected by changing temperatures and wind speeds, but, contrary to our initial hypothesis, not by relative humidity. We detected no effect of the eCO2 treatment on total bioaerosol concentrations, but a potential suppression of high concentration bioaerosol events was detected under eCO2. In-canopy atmospheric dispersion modelling indicates that the median spore dispersion distance is sufficiently small that there is little mixing between treatment and control experiments. Our data demonstrate the suitability of low-cost OPCs, interpreted with due caution, for use in forests, and so opens the possibility of forest bioaerosol monitoring in a wider range of habitats, to a wider range of researchers at a modest cost.\u0000","PeriodicalId":89897,"journal":{"name":"Biogeosciences discussions : (BGD)","volume":" ","pages":"1-25"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43436054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
R. Sims, M. Bedington, U. Schuster, A. Watson, V. Kitidis, R. Torres, H. Findlay, J. Fishwick, I. Brown, T. Bell
{"title":"Tidal mixing of estuarine and coastal waters in the Western English Channel controls spatial and temporal variability in seawater CO2","authors":"R. Sims, M. Bedington, U. Schuster, A. Watson, V. Kitidis, R. Torres, H. Findlay, J. Fishwick, I. Brown, T. Bell","doi":"10.5194/BG-2021-166","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/BG-2021-166","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Surface ocean CO2 measurements are used to compute the oceanic air–sea CO2 flux. The CO2 flux component from rivers and estuaries is uncertain. Estuarine and coastal water carbon dioxide (CO2) observations are relatively few compared to observations in the open ocean. The contribution of these regions to the global air–sea CO2 flux remains uncertain due to systematic under-sampling. Existing high-quality CO2 instrumentation predominantly utilise showerhead and percolating style equilibrators optimised for open ocean observations. The intervals between measurements made with such instrumentation make it difficult to resolve the fine-scale spatial variability of surface water CO2 at timescales relevant to the high frequency variability in estuarine and coastal environments. Here we present a novel dataset with unprecedented frequency and spatial resolution transects made at the Western Channel Observatory in the south west of the UK from June to September 2016, using a fast response seawater CO2 system. Novel observations were made along the estuarine–coastal continuum at different stages of the tide and reveal distinct spatial patterns in the surface water CO2 fugacity (fCO2) at different stages of the tidal cycle. Changes in salinity and fCO2 were closely correlated at all stages of the tidal cycle and suggest that the mixing of oceanic and riverine end members determines the variations in fCO2. The observations demonstrate the complex dynamics determining spatial and temporal patterns of salinity and fCO2 in the region. Spatial variations in observed surface salinity were used to validate the output of a regional high resolution hydrodynamic model. The model enables a novel estimate of the air–sea CO2 flux in the estuarine–coastal zone. Air–sea CO2 flux variability in the estuarine–coastal boundary region is dominated by the state of the tide because of strong CO2 outgassing from the river plume. The observations and model output demonstrate that undersampling the complex tidal and mixing processes characteristic of estuarine and coastal environment bias quantification of air-sea CO2 fluxes in coastal waters. The results provide a mechanism to support critical national and regional policy implementation by reducing uncertainty in carbon budgets.\u0000","PeriodicalId":89897,"journal":{"name":"Biogeosciences discussions : (BGD)","volume":" ","pages":"1-25"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45642909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}