{"title":"Anticipation versus results: an approach to improved program forecasting.","authors":"F H Mitchell","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Health planners may be an integral part of the decision-making process when new programs are designed and legislation and regulations are drafted. The appropriateness of the resultant program design will depend on the quality of the guidance provided by the planners. In many cases, this guidance is primarily determined by the philosophical beliefs, subjective system insights, and communication skills of the individual--supported by a little data. Pressures of the moment and limitations in existing impact prediction techniques may restrict the use of more systematic methods of planning. This historical approach has produced numerous planning failures, when success is measured by comparing anticipated and actual outcomes. Planned changes have often been accompanied by significant, unpredicted side effects that reduce the political credibility of decision-makers and produce programs that are criticized by the public that they are intended to serve. Thus, the need seems to exist for new approaches to the analysis of the potential impact of program changes. Planning, decision-making and implementation processes for health programs should be studied in order to enable planners to provide improved guidance to decision-makers. One conceptual approach to the performance of such studies is explored here.</p>","PeriodicalId":76886,"journal":{"name":"American journal of health planning","volume":"3 2","pages":"7-14"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1978-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"21180414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Health planning--an overview.","authors":"N D Richie","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The movement toward systematic, national health planning in the United States began approximately a century ago (particularly in regard to the control of epidemics, and sanitation problems in general). However the decades following World War II have seen a proliferation of legislation in this area--including the Hill-Burton Legislation, Regional Medical Programs, and Comprehensive Health Planning. The National Health Planning and Resources Development Act of 1974 represents the federal government's most ambitious effort, to date, to implement regional planning--within the context of a national health planning policy, and may one day prove to have been the harbinger of a national health service in the United States. Health planning efforts have been particularly hampered due to difficulties in obtaining valid and reliable data upon which to base decisions. While some movement has been made in this area, with commonly-accepted techniques being developed, there is much room for further development and refinement of health planning methodology. Health planning, therefore, remains a rather imperfect \"art\", raising as many questions as it attempts to answer, at this point in time.</p>","PeriodicalId":76886,"journal":{"name":"American journal of health planning","volume":"3 2","pages":"36-42"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1978-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"21176177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Health planning: the equity of the health systems agency funding allocation formula.","authors":"J Fitzwilliams","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The funding formula for HSAs prescribed by P.L. 93-641 is based on population. As a result, the amounts HSAs receive range from $175,000 to several million dollars. Yet all are expected to perform essentially the same tasks and the time, cost and staff expertise required are not proportional to population. There are 40 HSAs with populations of under 500,000. Of these, 14 cover over 20,000 square miles and 8 between 10,000 and 20,000 square miles. There are 9 HSAs with populations of 500,000 to 1,000,000 that also have land areas of over 20,000 square miles and densities of under 50 people per square mile. An additional 14 HSAs in this population range (10 with populations of under 600,000) and with low densities cover 10,000-20,000 square miles. It is suggested that a new funding formula based on both population and land area be devised.</p>","PeriodicalId":76886,"journal":{"name":"American journal of health planning","volume":"3 2","pages":"1-6"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1978-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"21176173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A case for a hospital census variation and bed needs formula.","authors":"R E MacStravic","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Do we really want to limit hospital beds to 4.0 per thousand in every health service area? Are 80 percent occupancy and 1,000 patient days per thousand really what we want? The author suggests the goals are contradictory, and poses an alternative--variable occupancy standards.</p>","PeriodicalId":76886,"journal":{"name":"American journal of health planning","volume":"3 2","pages":"51-60"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1978-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"21180412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Cost analysis and the HSA: a framework.","authors":"D B Hill","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>A high priority in the mandate established for health systems agencies is the containment of health care costs. In this paper, a suggested framework for the analysis of costs in a health service area is presented. The health service area cost profile is derived by classifying data in nine categories of variables. Cost analysis involves the identification of relationships among measures in different profile categories. A general process for cost analysis is described. The process includes the comparative analyses of the health service area cost profile, historical and projected cost profiles, and cost profiles for sub-areas and areas outside the health service area.</p>","PeriodicalId":76886,"journal":{"name":"American journal of health planning","volume":"3 2","pages":"15-20"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1978-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"21176174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"HSAs and PSROs: can the odd couple learn to live together?","authors":"P P Budetti","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The Health Policy Program, UCSF School of Medicine, has conducted a two-year study of possiblities for cooperation between Health System Agencies (HSAs) and Professional Standards Review Organizations (PSROs). This paper, which is based on that study, focuses on two areas in which it may be impossible for either program to do its work properly without help from the other. HSAs cannot do health planning without the kind of data that can only be generated by the PSRO network. In turn, it may be hopeless for PSROs to try to change utilization practices unless HSAs can hold down the supply of beds and services. In spite of their interdependence, cooperation to date between HSAs and PSROs has been limited by their different membership, by restrictions on release of PSRO data, and by ineffectual HSA tools to control supply. With increasing government cost-control pressures, HSAs and PSROs are likely to find it necessary to work together as their activities begin to impact on each other.</p>","PeriodicalId":76886,"journal":{"name":"American journal of health planning","volume":"3 1","pages":"1-6"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1978-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"21178653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Operational measures: indicators of health system performance.","authors":"S A Hadley, J F Gillespie","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>As P.L. 93-641, the National Health Planning and Resources Development Act of 1974 makes clear, Health Systems Agencies (HSAs) were created to improve the costs, availability, accessibility, acceptability, quality, and continuity of the health system. To fulfill this mandate, agencies require clear definitions of these six characteristics and valid measures which can be applied to assess the performance of the existing health system and the impact of proposed modifications. The current state of the planning art does not provide for either of these requirements. This is due to the lack of consensus regarding the definitions of the characteristics and our limited understanding of the variety and validity of measures presently in use. Recognizing these problems, DHEW'S Bureau of Health Planning and Resources Development (BHPRD) initiated a project with The Orkand Corporation in June 1976, to accomplish the following objectives: (1) develop mutually exclusive definitions for the six characteristics; (2) identify and develop model operational measures for each of the characteristics; (3) produce guidelines for the application of these measures; and (4) design a methodology for HSAs to use in appraising the various interrelationships among characteristics. This paper is an introduction to the operational measures project. It describes the operational measures concept and the measures' intended uses. The monograph to be produced by the project is described. Finally, the project findings to date are summarized.</p>","PeriodicalId":76886,"journal":{"name":"American journal of health planning","volume":"3 1","pages":"43-6"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1978-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"21178658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Population forecasts for health planning: an assessment of the state of the art.","authors":"D B Pittenger","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Health planning agencies make use of age-sex detailed forecasts of population. This article evaluates sources of forecasts, notes the essential role of assumptions in forecasts, and indicates the general quality of techniques for projecting components of population change. It clarifies for health planners what demographers can--and can not--deliver.</p>","PeriodicalId":76886,"journal":{"name":"American journal of health planning","volume":"3 1","pages":"14-7"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1978-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"21178654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Where are we going? How are we getting there?","authors":"J F Grabowski","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Health Systems Agencies are required to develop plans that contain goals, objectives and recommended actions. Definitions have been provided by the Federal government yet, to date, the agencies have exhibited difficulty in writing statements that are consistent with the definitions. The article proposes some additional concepts that can be used to assist agencies in the writing of goals, objectives and recommended actions that will meet the Federal requirements and clarify the planning process.</p>","PeriodicalId":76886,"journal":{"name":"American journal of health planning","volume":"3 1","pages":"36-42"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1978-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"21178657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Economic impact analysis for certificate of need applications.","authors":"J B Reiss","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>State certificate of need laws to assess the appropriateness of capital expenditures by health care providers are now mandatory for states which desire federal funds. The cost-effectiveness of proposed projects must be identified. The economic impact analysis outlined here provides for review of the capital and operating costs of and the resource demands made by a proposal. The approach presented provides for a sequential series of increasingly sophisticated analyses required as projects become more complex and use more highly technical resources.</p>","PeriodicalId":76886,"journal":{"name":"American journal of health planning","volume":"3 1","pages":"18-23"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1978-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"21178655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}