{"title":"Identifying Prerequisite Courses in Undergraduate Biology Using Machine Learning","authors":"Youngjin Lee","doi":"10.6339/22-jds1068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6339/22-jds1068","url":null,"abstract":"Many undergraduate students who matriculated in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) degree programs drop out or switch their major. Previous studies indicate that performance of students in prerequisite courses is important for attrition of students in STEM. This study analyzed demographic information, ACT/SAT score, and performance of students in freshman year courses to develop machine learning models predicting their success in earning a bachelor’s degree in biology. The predictive model based on Random Forest (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) showed a better performance in terms of AUC (Area Under the Curve) with more balanced sensitivity and specificity than Logistic Regression (LR), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), and Neural Network (NN) models. An explainable machine learning approach called break-down was employed to identify important freshman year courses that could have a larger impact on student success at the biology degree program and student levels. More important courses identified at the program level can help program coordinators to prioritize their effort in addressing student attrition while more important courses identified at the student level can help academic advisors to provide more personalized, data-driven guidance to students.","PeriodicalId":73699,"journal":{"name":"Journal of data science : JDS","volume":"491 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71320701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"‘You Draw It’: Implementation of Visually Fitted Trends with r2d3","authors":"Emily A. Robinson, Réka Howard, Susan Vanderplas","doi":"10.6339/22-jds1083","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6339/22-jds1083","url":null,"abstract":"How do statistical regression results compare to intuitive, visually fitted results? Fitting lines by eye through a set of points has been explored since the 20th century. Common methods of fitting trends by eye involve maneuvering a string, black thread, or ruler until the fit is suitable, then drawing the line through the set of points. In 2015, the New York Times introduced an interactive feature, called ‘You Draw It,’ where readers are asked to input their own assumptions about various metrics and compare how these assumptions relate to reality. This research is intended to implement ‘You Draw It’, adapted from the New York Times, as a way to measure the patterns we see in data. In this paper, we describe the adaptation of an old tool for graphical testing and evaluation, eye-fitting, for use in modern web-applications suitable for testing statistical graphics. We present an empirical evaluation of this testing method for linear regression, and briefly discuss an extension of this method to non-linear applications.","PeriodicalId":73699,"journal":{"name":"Journal of data science : JDS","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71320862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jiabu Ye, Binbing Yu, H. Mann, A. Sabin, Z. Szíjgyártó, David Wright, P. Mukhopadhyay, C. Massacesi, S. Ghiorghiu, R. Iacona
{"title":"Addressing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Survival Outcomes in Randomized Phase III Oncology Trials","authors":"Jiabu Ye, Binbing Yu, H. Mann, A. Sabin, Z. Szíjgyártó, David Wright, P. Mukhopadhyay, C. Massacesi, S. Ghiorghiu, R. Iacona","doi":"10.6339/22-jds1079","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6339/22-jds1079","url":null,"abstract":"We assessed the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on the statistical analysis of time-to-event outcomes in late-phase oncology trials. Using a simulated case study that mimics a Phase III ongoing trial during the pandemic, we evaluated the impact of COVID-19-related deaths, time off-treatment and missed clinical visits due to the pandemic, on overall survival and/or progression-free survival in terms of test size (also referred to as Type 1 error rate or alpha level), power, and hazard ratio (HR) estimates. We found that COVID-19-related deaths would impact both size and power, and lead to biased HR estimates; the impact would be more severe if there was an imbalance in COVID-19-related deaths between the study arms. Approaches censoring COVID-19-related deaths may mitigate the impact on power and HR estimation, especially if study data cut-off was extended to recover censoring-related event loss. The impact of COVID-19-related time off-treatment would be modest for power, and moderate for size and HR estimation. Different rules of censoring cancer progression times result in a slight difference in the power for the analysis of progression-free survival. The simulations provided valuable information for determining whether clinical-trial modifications should be required for ongoing trials during the COVID-19 pandemic.","PeriodicalId":73699,"journal":{"name":"Journal of data science : JDS","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71320957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Editorial: Large-Scale Spatial Data Science","authors":"Sameh Abdulah, S. Castruccio, M. Genton, Ying Sun","doi":"10.6339/22-jds204edi","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6339/22-jds204edi","url":null,"abstract":"This special issue features eight articles on “Large-Scale Spatial Data Science.” Data science for complex and large-scale spatial and spatio-temporal data has become essential in many research fields, such as climate science and environmental applications. Due to the ever-increasing amounts of data collected, traditional statistical approaches tend to break down and computa-tionally efficient methods and scalable algorithms that are suitable for large-scale spatial data have become crucial to cope with many challenges associated with big data. This special issue aims at highlighting some of the latest developments in the area of large-scale spatial data science. The research papers presented showcase advanced statistical methods and machine learn-ing approaches for solving complex and large-scale problems arising from modern data science applications. Abdulah et al. (2022) reported the results of the second competition on spatial statistics for large datasets organized by the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST). Very large datasets (up to 1 million in size) were generated with the ExaGeoStat software to design the competition on large-scale predictions in challenging settings, including univariate nonstationary spatial processes, univariate stationary space-time processes, and bivariate stationary spatial processes. The authors described the data generation process in detail in each setting and made these valuable datasets publicly available. They reviewed the methods used by fourteen competing teams worldwide, analyzed the results of the competition, and assessed the performance of each team.","PeriodicalId":73699,"journal":{"name":"Journal of data science : JDS","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71320563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Data Science Applications and Implications in Legal Studies: A Perspective Through Topic Modelling","authors":"Jinzhe Tan, Huan Wan, Ping Yan, Zheng Hua Zhu","doi":"10.6339/22-jds1058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6339/22-jds1058","url":null,"abstract":"Law and legal studies has been an exciting new field for data science applications whereas the technological advancement also has profound implications for legal practice. For example, the legal industry has accumulated a rich body of high quality texts, images and other digitised formats, which are ready to be further processed and analysed by data scientists. On the other hand, the increasing popularity of data science has been a genuine challenge to legal practitioners, regulators and even general public and has motivated a long-lasting debate in the academia focusing on issues such as privacy protection and algorithmic discrimination. This paper collects 1236 journal articles involving both law and data science from the platform Web of Science to understand the patterns and trends of this interdisciplinary research field in terms of English journal publications. We find a clear trend of increasing publication volume over time and a strong presence of high-impact law and political science journals. We then use the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) as a topic modelling method to classify the abstracts into four topics based on the coherence measure. The four topics identified confirm that both challenges and opportunities have been investigated in this interdisciplinary field and help offer directions for future research.","PeriodicalId":73699,"journal":{"name":"Journal of data science : JDS","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71320450","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Creating a Census County Assessment Tool for Visualizing Census Data","authors":"Izzy Youngs, R. Prevost, Christopher Dick","doi":"10.6339/22-jds1082","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6339/22-jds1082","url":null,"abstract":"The 2020 Census County Assessment Tool was developed to assist decennial census data users in identifying deviations between expected census counts and the released counts across population and housing indicators. The tool also offers contextual data for each county on factors which could have contributed to census collection issues, such as self-response rates and COVID-19 infection rates. The tool compiles this information into a downloadable report and includes additional local data sources relevant to the data collection process and experts to seek more assistance.","PeriodicalId":73699,"journal":{"name":"Journal of data science : JDS","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71320850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Exploring Rural Shrink Smart Through Guided Discovery Dashboards","authors":"Denise Bradford, Susan Vanderplas","doi":"10.6339/22-jds1080","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6339/22-jds1080","url":null,"abstract":"Many small and rural places are shrinking. Interactive dashboards are the most common use cases for data visualization and context for exploratory data tools. In our paper, we will use Iowa data to explore the specific scope of how dashboards are used in small and rural area to empower novice analysts to make data-driven decisions. Our framework will suggest a number of research directions to better support small and rural places from shrinking using an interactive dashboard design, implementation and use for the every day analyst.","PeriodicalId":73699,"journal":{"name":"Journal of data science : JDS","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71320966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Improving the Science of Annotation for Natural Language Processing: The Use of the Single-Case Study for Piloting Annotation Projects","authors":"Kylie L. Anglin, Arielle Boguslav, Todd Hall","doi":"10.6339/22-jds1054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6339/22-jds1054","url":null,"abstract":"Researchers need guidance on how to obtain maximum efficiency and accuracy when annotating training data for text classification applications. Further, given wide variability in the kinds of annotations researchers need to obtain, they would benefit from the ability to conduct low-cost experiments during the design phase of annotation projects. To this end, our study proposes the single-case study design as a feasible and causally-valid experimental design for determining the best procedures for a given annotation task. The key strength of the design is its ability to generate causal evidence at the individual level, identifying the impact of competing annotation techniques and interfaces for the specific annotator(s) included in an annotation project. In this paper, we demonstrate the application of the single-case study in an applied experiment and argue that future researchers should incorporate the design into the pilot stage of annotation projects so that, over time, a causally-valid body of knowledge regarding the best annotation techniques is built.","PeriodicalId":73699,"journal":{"name":"Journal of data science : JDS","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71320504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Motion Picture Editing as a Hawkes Process","authors":"Nick Redfern","doi":"10.6339/22-jds1055","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6339/22-jds1055","url":null,"abstract":"In this article I analyse motion picture editing as a point process to explore the temporal structure in the timings of cuts in motion pictures, modelling the editing in 134 Hollywood films released between 1935 and 2005 as a Hawkes process with an exponential kernel. The results show that the editing in Hollywood films can be modelled as a Hawkes process and that the conditional intensity function provides a direct description of the instantaneous cutting rate of a film, revealing the structure of a film’s editing at a range of scales. The parameters of the exponential kernel show a clear trend over time to a more rapid editing style with an increase in the rate of exogenous events and small increase in the rate of endogenous events. This is consistent with the shift from a classical to an intensified continuity editing style. There are, however, few differences between genres indicating the consistency of editing practices in Hollywood cinema over time and different types of films.","PeriodicalId":73699,"journal":{"name":"Journal of data science : JDS","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71320513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Modeling Dynamic Transport Network with Matrix Factor Models: an Application to International Trade Flow","authors":"Elynn Y. Chen, Rong Chen","doi":"10.6339/22-jds1065","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6339/22-jds1065","url":null,"abstract":"International trade research plays an important role to inform trade policy and shed light on wider economic issues. With recent advances in information technology, economic agencies distribute an enormous amount of internationally comparable trading data, providing a gold mine for empirical analysis of international trade. International trading data can be viewed as a dynamic transport network because it emphasizes the amount of goods moving across network edges. Most literature on dynamic network analysis concentrates on parametric modeling of the connectivity network that focuses on link formation or deformation rather than the transport moving across the network. We take a different non-parametric perspective from the pervasive node-and-edge-level modeling: the dynamic transport network is modeled as a time series of relational matrices; variants of the matrix factor model of Wang et al. (2019) are applied to provide a specific interpretation for the dynamic transport network. Under the model, the observed surface network is assumed to be driven by a latent dynamic transport network with lower dimensions. Our method is able to unveil the latent dynamic structure and achieves the goal of dimension reduction. We applied the proposed method to a dataset of monthly trading volumes among 24 countries (and regions) from 1982 to 2015. Our findings shed light on trading hubs, centrality, trends, and patterns of international trade and show matching change points to trading policies. The dataset also provides a fertile ground for future research on international trade.","PeriodicalId":73699,"journal":{"name":"Journal of data science : JDS","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71320647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}