Advances in Atmospheric Sciences最新文献_第8页

Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2 基于 NorESM2 大集合模拟的海冰损失和大气内部变率对冬季北极至东亚地表气温的相对影响

IF 5.8 2区地球科学

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-02 DOI: 10.1007/s00376-023-3006-9

Shengping He, Helge Drange, Tore Furevik, Huijun Wang, Ke Fan, Lise Seland Graff, Yvan J. Orsolini

{"title":"Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2","authors":"Shengping He, Helge Drange, Tore Furevik, Huijun Wang, Ke Fan, Lise Seland Graff, Yvan J. Orsolini","doi":"10.1007/s00376-023-3006-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3006-9","url":null,"abstract":"To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia” (WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day (or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day (or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four (ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day (future) experiment; the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60% (80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day (future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-loss-induced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.","PeriodicalId":7249,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140597168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling 基于三重嵌套动态降尺度的三峡水库春季连续降雨事件预测

IF 5.8 2区地球科学

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-27 DOI: 10.1007/s00376-023-3118-2

Yanxin Zheng, Shuanglin Li, Noel Keenlyside, Shengping He, Lingling Suo

{"title":"Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling","authors":"Yanxin Zheng, Shuanglin Li, Noel Keenlyside, Shengping He, Lingling Suo","doi":"10.1007/s00376-023-3118-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3118-2","url":null,"abstract":"Spring consecutive rainfall events (CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models (GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6, indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.","PeriodicalId":7249,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140313664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Representation of the Stratospheric Circulation in CRA-40 Reanalysis: The Arctic Polar Vortex and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation CRA-40 再分析中平流层环流的代表性：北极极地涡旋和准双年涛动

IF 5.8 2区地球科学

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-22 DOI: 10.1007/s00376-023-3127-1

Zixu Wang, Shirui Yan, Jinggao Hu, Jiechun Deng, Rongcai Ren, Jian Rao

{"title":"Representation of the Stratospheric Circulation in CRA-40 Reanalysis: The Arctic Polar Vortex and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation","authors":"Zixu Wang, Shirui Yan, Jinggao Hu, Jiechun Deng, Rongcai Ren, Jian Rao","doi":"10.1007/s00376-023-3127-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3127-1","url":null,"abstract":"The representation of the Arctic stratospheric circulation and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) during the period 1981–2019 in a 40-yr Chinese global reanalysis dataset (CRA-40) is evaluated by comparing two widely used reanalysis datasets, ERA-5 and MERRA-2. CRA-40 demonstrates a comparable performance with ERA-5 and MERRA-2 in characterizing the winter and spring circulation in the lower and middle Arctic stratosphere. Specifically, differences in the climatological polar-mean temperature and polar night jet among the three reanalyses are within ±0.5 K and ±0.5 m s−1, respectively. The onset dates of the stratospheric sudden warming and stratospheric final warming events at 10 hPa in CRA-40, together with the dynamics and circulation anomalies during the onset process of warming events, are nearly identical to the other two reanalyses with slight differences. By contrast, the CRA-40 dataset demonstrates a deteriorated performance in describing the QBO below 10 hPa compared to the other two reanalysis products, manifested by the larger easterly biases of the QBO index, the remarkably weaker amplitude of the QBO, and the weaker wavelet power of the QBO period. Such pronounced biases are mainly concentrated in the period 1981–98 and largely reduced by at least 39% in 1999–2019. Thus, particular caution is needed in studying the QBO based on CRA-40. All three reanalyses exhibit greater disagreement in the upper stratosphere compared to the lower and middle stratosphere for both the polar region and the tropics.","PeriodicalId":7249,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"165 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140197978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Westerlies Affecting the Seasonal Variation of Water Vapor Transport over the Tibetan Plateau Induced by Tropical Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal 西风影响孟加拉湾热带气旋诱导的青藏高原水汽输送的季节变化

IF 5.8 2区地球科学

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.1007/s00376-023-3093-7

{"title":"Westerlies Affecting the Seasonal Variation of Water Vapor Transport over the Tibetan Plateau Induced by Tropical Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal","authors":"","doi":"10.1007/s00376-023-3093-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3093-7","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Abstract</h3> This study investigates the activity of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) from 1979 to 2018 to discover the mechanism affecting the contribution rate to the meridional moisture budget anomaly (MMBA) over the southern boundary of the Tibetan Plateau (SBTP). May and October–December are the bimodal phases of BOB TC frequency, which decreases month by month from October to December and is relatively low in May. However, the contribution rate to the MMBA is the highest in May. The seasonal variation in the meridional position of the westerlies is the key factor affecting the contribution rate. The relatively southern (northern) position of the westerlies in November and December (May) results in a lower (higher) contribution rate to the MMBA. This mechanism is confirmed by the momentum equation. When water vapor enters the westerlies near the trough line, the resultant meridional acceleration is directed north. It follows that the farther north the trough is, and the farther north the water vapor can be transported. When water vapor enters the westerlies from the area near the ridge line, for Type-T (Type-R) TCs, water vapor enters the westerlies downstream of the trough (ridge). Consequently, the direction of the resultant meridional acceleration is directed south and the resultant zonal acceleration is directed east (west), which is not conducive to the northward transport of water vapor. This is especially the case if the trough or ridge is relatively south, as the water vapor may not cross the SBTP.","PeriodicalId":7249,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140198053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Summer Atmospheric Water Cycle under the Transition Influence of the Westerly and Summer Monsoon over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin in the Southern Tibetan Plateau 青藏高原南部雅鲁藏布江流域西风和夏季季风过渡影响下的夏季大气水循环

IF 5.8 2区地球科学

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.1007/s00376-023-3094-6

{"title":"Summer Atmospheric Water Cycle under the Transition Influence of the Westerly and Summer Monsoon over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin in the Southern Tibetan Plateau","authors":"","doi":"10.1007/s00376-023-3094-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3094-6","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Abstract</h3> This study compares the summer atmospheric water cycle, including moisture sources and consumption, in the upstream, midstream, and downstream regions of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin in the southern Tibetan Plateau. The evolutions of moisture properties under the influence of the westerly and summer southerly monsoon are examined using 5-yr multi-source measurements and ERA5 reanalysis data. Note that moisture consumption in this study is associated with clouds, precipitation, and diabatic heating. Compared to the midstream and downstream regions, the upstream region has less moisture, clouds, and precipitation, where the moisture is brought by the westerly. In early August, the vertical wet advection over this region becomes enhanced and generates more high clouds and precipitation. The midstream region has moisture carried by the westerly in June and by the southerly monsoon from July to August. The higher vertical wet advection maximum here forms more high clouds, with a precipitation peak in early July. The downstream region is mainly affected by the southerly-driven wet advection. The rich moisture and strong vertical wet advection here produce the most clouds and precipitation among the three regions, with a precipitation peak in late June. The height of the maximum moisture condensation is different between the midstream region (325 hPa) and the other two regions (375 hPa), due to the higher upward motion maximum in the midstream region. The diabatic heating structures show that stratiform clouds dominate the upstream region, stratiform clouds and deep convection co-exist in the midstream region, and deep convection systems characterize the downstream region.","PeriodicalId":7249,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"165 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140198052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Seasonal Characteristics of Forecasting Uncertainties in Surface PM2.5 Concentration Associated with Forecast Lead Time over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region 京津冀地区地面 PM2.5 浓度预报不确定性的季节特征与预报提前期的关系

IF 5.8 2区地球科学

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.1007/s00376-023-3060-3

Qiuyan Du, Chun Zhao, Jiawang Feng, Zining Yang, Jiamin Xu, Jun Gu, Mingshuai Zhang, Mingyue Xu, Shengfu Lin

{"title":"Seasonal Characteristics of Forecasting Uncertainties in Surface PM2.5 Concentration Associated with Forecast Lead Time over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region","authors":"Qiuyan Du, Chun Zhao, Jiawang Feng, Zining Yang, Jiamin Xu, Jun Gu, Mingshuai Zhang, Mingyue Xu, Shengfu Lin","doi":"10.1007/s00376-023-3060-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3060-3","url":null,"abstract":"Forecasting uncertainties among meteorological fields have long been recognized as the main limitation on the accuracy and predictability of air quality forecasts. However, the particular impact of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on air quality forecasts specific to different seasons is still not well known. In this study, a series of forecasts with different forecast lead times for January, April, July, and October of 2018 are conducted over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region and the impacts of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on surface PM2.5 concentration forecasts with each lead time are investigated. With increased lead time, the forecasted PM2.5 concentrations significantly change and demonstrate obvious seasonal variations. In general, the forecasting uncertainties in monthly mean surface PM2.5 concentrations in the BTH region due to lead time are the largest (80%) in spring, followed by autumn (~50%), summer (~40%), and winter (20%). In winter, the forecasting uncertainties in total surface PM2.5 mass due to lead time are mainly due to the uncertainties in PBL heights and hence the PBL mixing of anthropogenic primary particles. In spring, the forecasting uncertainties are mainly from the impacts of lead time on lower-tropospheric northwesterly winds, thereby further enhancing the condensation production of anthropogenic secondary particles by the long-range transport of natural dust. In summer, the forecasting uncertainties result mainly from the decrease in dry and wet deposition rates, which are associated with the reduction of near-surface wind speed and precipitation rate. In autumn, the forecasting uncertainties arise mainly from the change in the transport of remote natural dust and anthropogenic particles, which is associated with changes in the large-scale circulation.","PeriodicalId":7249,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"101 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140197976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Factors Influencing the Spatial Variability of Air Temperature Urban Heat Island Intensity in Chinese Cities 影响中国城市气温空间变异性的因素城市热岛强度

IF 5.8 2区地球科学

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.1007/s00376-023-3012-y

Heng Lyu, Wei Wang, Keer Zhang, Chang Cao, Wei Xiao, Xuhui Lee

{"title":"Factors Influencing the Spatial Variability of Air Temperature Urban Heat Island Intensity in Chinese Cities","authors":"Heng Lyu, Wei Wang, Keer Zhang, Chang Cao, Wei Xiao, Xuhui Lee","doi":"10.1007/s00376-023-3012-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3012-y","url":null,"abstract":"Few studies have investigated the spatial patterns of the air temperature urban heat island (AUHI) and its controlling factors. In this study, the data generated by an urban climate model were used to investigate the spatial variations of the AUHI across China and the underlying climate and ecological drivers. A total of 355 urban clusters were used. We performed an attribution analysis of the AUHI to elucidate the mechanisms underlying its formation. The results show that the midday AUHI is negatively correlated with climate wetness (humid: 0.34 K; semi-humid: 0.50 K; semi-arid: 0.73 K). The annual mean midnight AUHI does not show discernible spatial patterns, but is generally stronger than the midday AUHI. The urban–rural difference in convection efficiency is the largest contributor to the midday AUHI in the humid (0.32 ± 0.09 K) and the semi-arid (0.36 ± 0.11 K) climate zones. The release of anthropogenic heat from urban land is the dominant contributor to the midnight AUHI in all three climate zones. The rural vegetation density is the most important driver of the daytime and nighttime AUHI spatial variations. A spatial covariance analysis revealed that this vegetation influence is manifested mainly through its regulation of heat storage in rural land.","PeriodicalId":7249,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"42 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140198076","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assimilating FY-4A AGRI Radiances with a Channel-Sensitive Cloud Detection Scheme for the Analysis and Forecasting of Multiple Typhoons 将 FY-4A AGRI 辐射与信道敏感云探测方案同化，用于多台风分析和预报

IF 5.8 2区地球科学

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-15 DOI: 10.1007/s00376-023-3072-z

Feifei Shen, Aiqing Shu, Zhiquan Liu, Hong Li, Lipeng Jiang, Tao Zhang, Dongmei Xu

{"title":"Assimilating FY-4A AGRI Radiances with a Channel-Sensitive Cloud Detection Scheme for the Analysis and Forecasting of Multiple Typhoons","authors":"Feifei Shen, Aiqing Shu, Zhiquan Liu, Hong Li, Lipeng Jiang, Tao Zhang, Dongmei Xu","doi":"10.1007/s00376-023-3072-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3072-z","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents an attempt at assimilating clear-sky FY-4A Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager (AGRI) radiances from two water vapor channels for the prediction of three landfalling typhoon events over the West Pacific Ocean using the 3DVar data assimilation (DA) method along with the WRF model. A channel-sensitive cloud detection scheme based on the particle filter (PF) algorithm is developed and examined against a cloud detection scheme using the multivariate and minimum residual (MMR) algorithm and another traditional cloud mask–dependent cloud detection scheme. Results show that both channel-sensitive cloud detection schemes are effective, while the PF scheme is able to reserve more pixels than the MMR scheme for the same channel. In general, the added value of AGRI radiances is confirmed when comparing with the control experiment without AGRI radiances. Moreover, it is found that the analysis fields of the PF experiment are mostly improved in terms of better depicting the typhoon, including the temperature, moisture, and dynamical conditions. The typhoon track forecast skill is improved with AGRI radiance DA, which could be explained by better simulating the upper trough. The impact of assimilating AGRI radiances on typhoon intensity forecasts is small. On the other hand, improved rainfall forecasts from AGRI DA experiments are found along with reduced errors for both the thermodynamic and moisture fields, albeit the improvements are limited.","PeriodicalId":7249,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140150826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Comparison of a Spectral Bin and Two Multi-Moment Bulk Microphysics Schemes for Supercell Simulation: Investigation into Key Processes Responsible for Hydrometeor Distributions and Precipitation 用于超级暴风雪模拟的一个光谱分区和两个多瞬时体微观物理方案的比较：水流星分布和降水的关键过程研究

IF 5.8 2区地球科学

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-15 DOI: 10.1007/s00376-023-3069-7

Marcus Johnson, Ming Xue, Youngsun Jung

{"title":"Comparison of a Spectral Bin and Two Multi-Moment Bulk Microphysics Schemes for Supercell Simulation: Investigation into Key Processes Responsible for Hydrometeor Distributions and Precipitation","authors":"Marcus Johnson, Ming Xue, Youngsun Jung","doi":"10.1007/s00376-023-3069-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3069-7","url":null,"abstract":"There are more uncertainties with ice hydrometeor representations and related processes than liquid hydrometeors within microphysics parameterization (MP) schemes because of their complicated geometries and physical properties. Idealized supercell simulations are produced using the WRF model coupled with “full” Hebrew University spectral bin MP (HU-SBM), and NSSL and Thompson bulk MP (BMP) schemes. HU-SBM downdrafts are typically weaker than those of the NSSL and Thompson simulations, accompanied by less rain evaporation. HU-SBM produces more cloud ice (plates), graupel, and hail than the BMPs, yet precipitates less at the surface. The limiting mass bins (and subsequently, particle size) of rimed ice in HU-SBM and slower rimed ice fall speeds lead to smaller melting-level net rimed ice fluxes than those of the BMPs. Aggregation from plates in HU-SBM, together with snow–graupel collisions, leads to a greater snow contribution to rain than those of the BMPs. Replacing HU-SBM’s fall speeds using the formulations of the BMPs after aggregating the discrete bin values to mass mixing ratios and total number concentrations increases net rain and rimed ice fluxes. Still, they are smaller in magnitude than bulk rain, NSSL hail, and Thompson graupel net fluxes near the surface. Conversely, the melting-layer net rimed ice fluxes are reduced when the fall speeds for the NSSL and Thompson simulations are calculated using HU-SBM fall speed formulations after discretizing the bulk particle size distributions (PSDs) into spectral bins. The results highlight precipitation sensitivity to storm dynamics, fall speed, hydrometeor evolution governed by process rates, and MP PSD design.","PeriodicalId":7249,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140150577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) Project in Central Asia: The Case for a Regional Hydroclimate Project 中亚全球能源与水资源交换（GEWEX）项目：地区水文气候项目案例

IF 5.8 2区地球科学

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-05 DOI: 10.1007/s00376-023-3384-2

Michael Brody, Maksim Kulikov, Sagynbek Orunbaev, Peter J. Van Oevelen

{"title":"The Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) Project in Central Asia: The Case for a Regional Hydroclimate Project","authors":"Michael Brody, Maksim Kulikov, Sagynbek Orunbaev, Peter J. Van Oevelen","doi":"10.1007/s00376-023-3384-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3384-2","url":null,"abstract":"Central Asia consists of the former Soviet Republics, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The region’s climate is continental, mostly semi-arid to arid. Agriculture is a significant part of the region’s economy. By its nature of intensive water use, agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Population growth and irrigation development have significantly increased the demand for water in the region. Major climate change issues include melting glaciers and a shrinking snowpack, which are the foundation of the region’s water resources, and a changing precipitation regime. Most glaciers are located in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, leading to transboundary water resource issues. Summer already has extremely high temperatures. Analyses indicate that Central Asia has been warming and precipitation might be increasing. The warming is expected to increase, but its spatial and temporal distribution depends upon specific global scenarios. Projections of future precipitation show significant uncertainties in type, amount, and distribution. Regional Hydroclimate Projects (RHPs) are an approach to studying these issues. Initial steps to develop an RHP began in 2021 with a widely distributed online survey about these climate issues. It was followed up with an online workshop and then, in 2023, an in-person workshop, held in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. Priorities for the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) project for the region include both observations and modeling, as well as development of better and additional precipitation observations, all of which are topics for the next workshop. A well-designed RHP should lead to reductions in critical climate uncertainties in policy-relevant timeframes that can influence decisions on necessary investments in climate adaptation.","PeriodicalId":7249,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140033699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0